By in large, I think the people that do that are not doing full analysis and trying to look at all the stats, as they often seem hyper focused on very specific stats without looking at the whole picture.

Brodin is better than both Jones and Werenski defensively, especially considering Brodin receives 57% defensive zone starts while Jones and Werenski get 44% defensive zone starts.
- kingcong39

i haven't seen enough of brodin to make a judgement on that

I get it. But it seems as if there are too many players discarded because analytics and the analytics community diminish their value.

Seth Jones and Zach Werenski are the epitome of the player you mentioned. But there aren't enough of them to go around. In absence of those players, teams need to maximize individual player attributes while also hiding or minimizing their flaws through a team concept.
- Michael Pachla

Seth Jones actually is one of the players with the bad CF%.

So like 39 was just alluding to. There is definitely a flaw if you’re assessing the fact that a d-man is on the ice for much more chances against then chances for. The chances against may not be of the dangerous variety if team defence is keeping chances away from high danger areas.

Speaking of Jones

https://theathletic.com/1...ource=user_shared_article

If I had to choose one, just for the next 2 to 3 seasons, I would take Spurgeon over Brodin every time. He's a better all around player, and almost as good defensively as Brodin. He is not a black hole offensively.

Factoring in Spurgeon's new contract and what Brodin is likely going to get on his next contract, between the 2, I'd rather have...neither?
- kingcong39

I happen to think Brodin won’t get the AAV everyone thinks he will because of the fact that he does not put up the offensive numbers.

Therefore, he would be even more appealing to me as he will provide much more value at his cap hit.

Time will tell though, it will be interesting to see what he actually ends up getting

Seth Jones actually is one of the players with the bad CF%.

So like 39 was just alluding to. There is definitely a flaw if you’re assessing the fact that a d-man is on the ice for much more chances against then chances for. The chances against may not be of the dangerous variety if team defence is keeping chances away from high danger areas.

Speaking of Jones

https://theathletic.com/1...ource=user_shared_article
- Pegullaville

he and werenski were a touch above 50% in the regular season...they're at 46% and 47%, respectively for the playoffs, which is right in the middle of their defensemen...

you also need to take into account these playoffs that they played against two of the top six corsi teams

Seth Jones actually is one of the players with the bad CF%.

So like 39 was just alluding to. There is definitely a flaw if you’re assessing the fact that a d-man is on the ice for much more chances against then chances for. The chances against may not be of the dangerous variety if team defence is keeping chances away from high danger areas.

Speaking of Jones

https://theathletic.com/1...ource=user_shared_article
- Pegullaville

and one more thing...

as for the article, what a stupid premise...i'd like to see torts' reaction if he was to be presented with that...it's very simple, against the high powered tampa bay lightning, a team that was out to prove at all costs that last year was a fluke:

jones: 65:06 toi, zero goals against

he and werenski were a touch above 50% in the regular season...they're at 46% and 47%, respectively for the playoffs, which is right in the middle of their defensemen...

you also need to take into account these playoffs that they played against two of the top six corsi teams
- Michael Pachla

IMO today that is the best D pairing in the NHL

i haven't seen enough of brodin to make a judgement on that
- Michael Pachla

we are not in position to move assets for a rental IMO

IMO today that is the best D pairing in the NHL
- homiedclown

that duo in front of stout goaltending (bob last year, korpi this year) gave me visions of nashville some 7-8 years ago with rinne/suter/weber

and one more thing...

as for the article, what a stupid premise...i'd like to see torts' reaction if he was to be presented with that...it's very simple, against the high powered tampa bay lightning, a team that was out to prove at all costs that last year was a fluke:

jones: 65:06 toi, zero goals against
- Michael Pachla

strong work ethic can overcome a lot of defects with a roster

we are not in position to move assets for a rental IMO
- homiedclown

good enough for me

that duo in front of stout goaltending (bob last year, korpi this year) gave me visions of nashville some 7-8 years ago with rinne/suter/weber
- Michael Pachla

Niedermayer/Pronger

yeah I went there

good enough for me
- Michael Pachla

after saying that, you can probably get Mathieu Perreault for a 6th or 7th rd pick for your third line center

Tim Thomas
- TheSabresTaco

Ok, let me rephrase this since I'm getting weird answers, how many players who played hundreds of games at a sub replacement level over a decade turned it around at 30?

Bogo is and will always be a bottom pairing/7th D man

and one more thing...

as for the article, what a stupid premise...i'd like to see torts' reaction if he was to be presented with that...it's very simple, against the high powered tampa bay lightning, a team that was out to prove at all costs that last year was a fluke:

jones: 65:06 toi, zero goals against
- Michael Pachla

What happens when the goaltender stops saving 96% of the shots?

Is it the goaltenders fault because the defenders you mentioned have been so good, is it the defenders fault because they have been losing the shot battle and the goaltender has been playing out of his mind, or is it simply a regression to the mean based on the idea that if you are consistently out shot and out chanced, eventually, the goals will go in and your likelihood of losing will increase substantially?

I would lump things into the last definition I outlined.

A lot of people look at basic stats like, Oh, Pilut is a good defenseman because he had a 60% CF with Risto.

Is he actually a good defenseman? Is he able to clear the net? Box guys out? How good are the players that he successfully shuts down? Can he block shots? Can he take pucks away with consistent success? Is he able to make intelligent passes in his zone to keep his goal out of danger? What's his hockey IQ? How well does he battle against the boards?

Or is it simply "I have the puck now, I can transition it with success"

Because there's a whole lot of evidence that the latter is much more true than the former.

And that's fine. But claiming he's this great defenseman because he had a 60% CF that one time with Risto is an annoyingly flawed argument.
- TheSabresTaco

Does any of this matter if the numbers tell us were better at preventing goals when he's on the ice?

after saying that, you can probably get Mathieu Perreault for a 6th or 7th rd pick for your third line center
- homiedclown

$4.125m seems like a hefty hit for a 32 yr. old forward whose offensive contributions seem to be taking a dive

and he has a nmc

and one more thing...

as for the article, what a stupid premise...i'd like to see torts' reaction if he was to be presented with that...it's very simple, against the high powered tampa bay lightning, a team that was out to prove at all costs that last year was a fluke:

jones: 65:06 toi, zero goals against
- Michael Pachla

Korpisalo in the playoffs now has a GSAx of 8.23 through today. That’s 1.37 GSAx per game played.

Hellebuyck had the highest GSAx of the regular season at 19.9 or 0.34 GSAx per game payed.

https://twitter.com/evolv.../1294032741701386240?s=21

Most likely because Hasek has possessed the body and mind of Korpisalo since the playoffs began

GSAx is goals saved above expected

risto and casey for nurse and puljujarvi


yes or no?

$4.125m seems like a hefty hit for a 32 yr. old forward whose offensive contributions seem to be taking a dive

and he has a nmc
- Michael Pachla

the price tag is why you would get him for next to nothing, they might buy him out

Ok, let me rephrase this since I'm getting weird answers, how many players who played hundreds of games at a sub replacement level over a decade turned it around at 30?

Bogo is and will always be a bottom pairing/7th D man
- sbroads24

Lidstrom

the price tag is why you would get him for next to nothing, they might buy him out
- homiedclown

The Sabres have to stop taking other team's garbage and overpaying them to lose in Buffalo. We already did that with Frolik, Bogo, are doing it with Skinner; Okposo. I think it's time to develop a new business model.

What happens when the goaltender stops saving 96% of the shots?

Is it the goaltenders fault because the defenders you mentioned have been so good, is it the defenders fault because they have been losing the shot battle and the goaltender has been playing out of his mind, or is it simply a regression to the mean based on the idea that if you are consistently out shot and out chanced, eventually, the goals will go in and your likelihood of losing will increase substantially?

I would lump things into the last definition I outlined.
- kingcong39

everyone knew what tampa was going to bring that game...colombus was up to the challenge for over seven periods...

and they ended up winning the next game 3-1...

jones: 28:31 toi, zero goals against in their game-2 win over the bolts

risto and casey for nurse and puljujarvi


yes or no?
- homiedclown

no

Korpisalo in the playoffs now has a GSAx of 8.23 through today. That’s 1.37 GSAx per game played.

Hellebuyck had the highest GSAx of the regular season at 19.9 or 0.34 GSAx per game payed.

https://twitter.com/evolv.../1294032741701386240?s=21

Most likely because Hasek has possessed the body and mind of Korpisalo since the playoffs began

GSAx is goals saved above expected
- Pegullaville

As a follow up to this point. Vasilesky allowed -7.89 goals less than expected in last years playoffs when the Lightning were swept.

He costed them the series.

Korpisalo in the playoffs now has a GSAx of 8.23 through today. That’s 1.37 GSAx per game played.

Hellebuyck had the highest GSAx of the regular season at 19.9 or 0.34 GSAx per game payed.

https://twitter.com/evolv.../1294032741701386240?s=21

Most likely because Hasek has possessed the body and mind of Korpisalo since the playoffs began

GSAx is goals saved above expected
- Pegullaville

expected goals and saves above expected are silly stats...yes, they show that teams are taking shots from specific areas that project probable goals and goals against within some given algorithm...but it doesn't tell the whole story as to the type of shot, who's shooting from that spot, was a player being dogged and thrown off just a bit because of a defender, was there a screen, etc...