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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: As vultures circle the Leafs, Sabres should throw offer sheet into the mix
Author Message
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Aug 14 @ 8:40 AM ET
A 3rd.
- TheSabresTaco


Lol.

How about Dea or Wilson instead
Michael Pachla
Buffalo Sabres
Location: solid!!!
Joined: 09.05.2007

Aug 14 @ 8:42 AM ET
Nice penalty by Sam Bennett. The who me look after the call was made when it was blatantly obvious was priceless.
- kingcong39

Game-tying goal too
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Aug 14 @ 8:44 AM ET
Lol.

How about Dea or Wilson instead

- IonSabres



McCann's not a bad talent. Not that great either.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Aug 14 @ 9:12 AM ET
I wonder what Jared McCann would cost from the Pens.
Would be a decent 3C, young and can play.

- IonSabres


Never thought of McCann, so I looked up his info.

He received 60% offensive zone starts this year, which is higher than the past 2 years (52% each of the past 2 years).

He was solid defensively this year for the first time, but is it easier to be good defensively if you are given heavier offensive zone starts? I don't know the answer to that.

His most common line mates are interesting.

1. Kahun 33%
2. Hornqvist 22%
3. Domink Simon 21%
4. Brandon Tanev 15%
5. Bryan Rust 13.5%
6. Alex Galchenyuk 11%
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Aug 14 @ 9:31 AM ET
Never thought of McCann, so I looked up his info.

He received 60% offensive zone starts this year, which is higher than the past 2 years (52% each of the past 2 years).

He was solid defensively this year for the first time, but is it easier to be good defensively if you are given heavier offensive zone starts? I don't know the answer to that.

His most common line mates are interesting.

1. Kahun 33%
2. Hornqvist 22%
3. Domink Simon 21%
4. Brandon Tanev 15%
5. Bryan Rust 13.5%
6. Alex Galchenyuk 11%

- kingcong39


I think realistically "being good" defensively is different than appearing to be good defensively via basic analytics. Pilut is example A.

I don't know the player well enough, nor have I done a lick of research into his past season, but I do know he was playing offensive, checking line minutes. 60% OZ suggests he can play a modicum of 200' while also being gifted enough (linemates like Kahun) to actually score.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Aug 14 @ 9:33 AM ET
I think realistically "being good" defensively is different than appearing to be good defensively via basic analytics. Pilut is example A.

I don't know the player well enough, nor have I done a lick of research into his past season, but I do know he was playing offensive, checking line minutes. 60% OZ suggests he can play a modicum of 200' while also being gifted enough (linemates like Kahun) to actually score.

- TheSabresTaco


Care to explain?
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Aug 14 @ 9:44 AM ET
Care to explain?
- kingcong39


A lot of people look at basic stats like, Oh, Pilut is a good defenseman because he had a 60% CF with Risto.

Is he actually a good defenseman? Is he able to clear the net? Box guys out? How good are the players that he successfully shuts down? Can he block shots? Can he take pucks away with consistent success? Is he able to make intelligent passes in his zone to keep his goal out of danger? What's his hockey IQ? How well does he battle against the boards?

Or is it simply "I have the puck now, I can transition it with success"

Because there's a whole lot of evidence that the latter is much more true than the former.

And that's fine. But claiming he's this great defenseman because he had a 60% CF that one time with Risto is an annoyingly flawed argument.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Aug 14 @ 9:47 AM ET
Don't mistake my post with me thinking Pilut is useless, especially as an OZ D. He's just not that special.
jochfr
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Nashville , TN
Joined: 07.11.2009

Aug 14 @ 9:48 AM ET
Subway are the worst sandwiches ever made.
- SABRES 89

Firehouse subs are worse, imo.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Aug 14 @ 9:50 AM ET
A lot of people look at basic stats like, Oh, Pilut is a good defenseman because he had a 60% CF with Risto.

Is he actually a good defenseman? Is he able to clear the net? Box guys out? How good are the players that he successfully shuts down? Can he block shots? Can he take pucks away with consistent success? Is he able to make intelligent passes in his zone to keep his goal out of danger? What's his hockey IQ? How well does he battle against the boards?

Or is it simply "I have the puck now, I can transition it with success"

Because there's a whole lot of evidence that the latter is much more true than the former.

And that's fine. But claiming he's this great defenseman because he had a 60% CF that one time with Risto is an annoyingly flawed argument.

- TheSabresTaco


Clearing the net and boxing players out are incredibly subjective, and how valuable are those traits? Ristolainen clears players out of the net, usually as another player is scoring or right after a player scores.

Also, how valuable is shot blocking?

Good defense when it comes to analytics is a lot more than the CF stat. A LOT more.
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

Aug 14 @ 9:58 AM ET
Swedish Jesus has the 2nd and 4th highest PPG seasons by a Swedish teenager in NHL history.

He stands alone in terms of d-men.

I expect him to explode next year like Quinn Hughes did this year for Vancouver. Hughes is 6 months older and has been playing on NA ice his whole life.

https://twitter.com/911jo.../1294181570304266242?s=21
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Aug 14 @ 9:59 AM ET
I think realistically "being good" defensively is different than appearing to be good defensively via basic analytics. Pilut is example A.

I don't know the player well enough, nor have I done a lick of research into his past season, but I do know he was playing offensive, checking line minutes. 60% OZ suggests he can play a modicum of 200' while also being gifted enough (linemates like Kahun) to actually score.

- TheSabresTaco


It looks like Teddy Blueger was given all the heavy defensive zone minutes, and by heavy I mean to the tune of 71% D Zone starts.

McCann had 60% O Zone starts while Crosby had 73% and Malkin had 72%.

Unfortunately, I don't have access to quality of competition stats.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Aug 14 @ 10:01 AM ET
Swedish Jesus has the 2nd and 4th highest PPG seasons by a Swedish teenager in NHL history.

He stands alone in terms of d-men.

I expect him to explode next year like Quinn Hughes did this year for Vancouver. Hughes is 6 months older and has been playing on NA ice his whole life.

https://twitter.com/911jo.../1294181570304266242?s=21

- Pegullaville


Please for the love of god Ralph don't employ the same restrictions on defensemen with their style of play again.
Michael Pachla
Buffalo Sabres
Location: solid!!!
Joined: 09.05.2007

Aug 14 @ 10:01 AM ET
Clearing the net and boxing players out are incredibly subjective, and how valuable are those traits? Ristolainen clears players out of the net, usually as another player is scoring or right after a player scores.

Also, how valuable is shot blocking?

Good defense when it comes to analytics is a lot more than the CF stat. A LOT more.

- kingcong39

Shot blocking is extremely valuable in that it doesn't allow for the puck to reach the net and doing so frequently tends to frustrate the opposition. Columbus is a prime example. They do it as a team and have been very successful against higher-powered teams with much more talent.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Aug 14 @ 10:12 AM ET
Clearing the net and boxing players out are incredibly subjective, and how valuable are those traits? Ristolainen clears players out of the net, usually as another player is scoring or right after a player scores.

Also, how valuable is shot blocking?

Good defense when it comes to analytics is a lot more than the CF stat. A LOT more.

- kingcong39



This is the point of my post.
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

Aug 14 @ 10:18 AM ET
Shot blocking is extremely valuable in that it doesn't allow for the puck to reach the net and doing so frequently tends to frustrate the opposition. Columbus is a prime example. They do it as a team and have been very successful against higher-powered teams with much more talent.
- Michael Pachla


Shot blocking is definitely important, however where do we draw the line on when it becomes a negative ?

Cause if an individual player is leading the league in shot blocks, let’s say Klefbom for example in Edmonton. That means you have to be caught in the defensive zone more often then not as you wouldn’t be blocking shots in the offensive zone.

It’s kind of like condemning a boxer for being able to take body shots, but if he’s taking enough of them and not punching the other guy what good is it ?

The metaphor may not make sense but hopefully you can pick up what I’m putting down.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Aug 14 @ 10:26 AM ET
This is the point of my post.
- TheSabresTaco


Right, but there are a lot more statistics that shed light on defensive, and offensive performance.

Only citing one stat is disingenuous, and those that do that are easy to ignore.
Michael Pachla
Buffalo Sabres
Location: solid!!!
Joined: 09.05.2007

Aug 14 @ 10:26 AM ET
Shot blocking is definitely important, however where do we draw the line on when it becomes a negative ?

Cause if an individual player is leading the league in shot blocks, let’s say Klefbom for example in Edmonton. That means you have to be caught in the defensive zone more often then not as you wouldn’t be blocking shots in the offensive zone.

It’s kind of like condemning a boxer for being able to take body shots, but if he’s taking enough of them and not punching the other guy what good is it ?

The metaphor may not make sense but hopefully you can pick up what I’m putting down.

- Pegullaville

The biggest problem I have with this line of thinking, as well as analytics in general, is that the movement wants every player to be the same.

Most, if not all, teams that go deep into the playoffs have those puck-moving, analytics friendly defensemen. However, they're augmented by those shot-blockers and crease-clearers.

That's where coaching and team-play, which includes a complete team buy-in, come into play.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Aug 14 @ 10:26 AM ET
Shot blocking is definitely important, however where do we draw the line on when it becomes a negative ?

Cause if an individual player is leading the league in shot blocks, let’s say Klefbom for example in Edmonton. That means you have to be caught in the defensive zone more often then not as you wouldn’t be blocking shots in the offensive zone.

It’s kind of like condemning a boxer for being able to take body shots, but if he’s taking enough of them and not punching the other guy what good is it ?

The metaphor may not make sense but hopefully you can pick up what I’m putting down.

- Pegullaville


The bolded is the point.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Aug 14 @ 10:30 AM ET
The biggest problem I have with this line of thinking, as well as analytics in general, is that the movement wants every player to be the same.

Most, if not all, teams that go deep into the playoffs have those puck-moving, analytics friendly defensemen. However, they're augmented by those shot-blockers and crease-clearers.

That's where coaching and team-play, which includes a complete team buy-in, come into play.

- Michael Pachla


The advanced stats community absolutely loves Jonas Brodin, and he's the ultimate defensive defenseman as he provides virtually no impact offensively.

Does Brodin clear the crease and block shots? Sure, but he also has all the other attributes that you would want.
Michael Pachla
Buffalo Sabres
Location: solid!!!
Joined: 09.05.2007

Aug 14 @ 10:40 AM ET
The advanced stats community absolutely loves Jonas Brodin, and he's the ultimate defensive defenseman as he provides virtually no impact offensively.

Does Brodin clear the crease and block shots? Sure, but he also has all the other attributes that you would want.

- kingcong39

I get it. But it seems as if there are too many players discarded because analytics and the analytics community diminish their value.

Seth Jones and Zach Werenski are the epitome of the player you mentioned. But there aren't enough of them to go around. In absence of those players, teams need to maximize individual player attributes while also hiding or minimizing their flaws through a team concept.
gerbe75pts
Anaheim Ducks
Location: DRAFT COLE CAUFIELD AT 7!!!, CA
Joined: 09.03.2009

Aug 14 @ 10:49 AM ET
Game-tying goal too
- Michael Pachla


A young ott would be a good add for the 3rd line
gerbe75pts
Anaheim Ducks
Location: DRAFT COLE CAUFIELD AT 7!!!, CA
Joined: 09.03.2009

Aug 14 @ 10:52 AM ET
The advanced stats community absolutely loves Jonas Brodin, and he's the ultimate defensive defenseman as he provides virtually no impact offensively.

Does Brodin clear the crease and block shots? Sure, but he also has all the other attributes that you would want.

- kingcong39


He would be good here
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Aug 14 @ 10:52 AM ET
I get it. But it seems as if there are too many players discarded because analytics and the analytics community diminish their value.

Seth Jones and Zach Werenski are the epitome of the player you mentioned. But there aren't enough of them to go around. In absence of those players, teams need to maximize individual player attributes while also hiding or minimizing their flaws through a team concept.

- Michael Pachla


By in large, I think the people that do that are not doing full analysis and trying to look at all the stats, as they often seem hyper focused on very specific stats without looking at the whole picture.

Brodin is better than both Jones and Werenski defensively, especially considering Brodin receives 57% defensive zone starts while Jones and Werenski get 44% defensive zone starts.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Aug 14 @ 10:56 AM ET
He would be good here
- gerbe75pts


If I had to choose one, just for the next 2 to 3 seasons, I would take Spurgeon over Brodin every time. He's a better all around player, and almost as good defensively as Brodin. He is not a black hole offensively.

Factoring in Spurgeon's new contract and what Brodin is likely going to get on his next contract, between the 2, I'd rather have...neither?
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