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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Time for a new coach
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Hockey66
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.05.2019

Aug 8 @ 9:02 PM ET
I think I'd rather bury JJ in the minors. I believe that scrapes 1 mil off his hit. I like Bjug if he's healthy, but I'm not taking the chance. Buy him out.

I'm convinced JJ will finish that contract with the Penguins if JR remains the GM.

- madmike71

I mean, the only downside to buying out JJ is 3 years at $917K after the window has closed. That's nothing. Burying him means we are still paying him ~$2.25M against the cap every year.

Here is the difference between buying out and burying:

2020 / 2021: $1.17M + $2.08 cap gained vs. $2.25M cap lost = $4.33M difference
2021 / 2022: $1.17M + $2.08 cap gained vs. $2.25M cap lost = $4.33M difference
2022 / 2023: $1.92M + $1.33 cap gained vs. $2.25M cap lost = $3.58M difference

That's too much just to avoid 3 years of $917K starting 3 years from now.
Hockey66
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.05.2019

Aug 8 @ 9:05 PM ET
If you want to go all out next year and deal with the consequences later, sure. But I wouldn't want that dead space the following year.

You'd need to move Hornqvist and a 3M player you didn't move this coming off-season and replace them with league minimum players just to fit Marino. And moving Hornqvist isn't something you can guarantee with his NMC.

I'd buyout JJ, but I'd try another way to move Bjugstad.

- Tojo.

I'm inclined to agree with this. I think there are a lot of factors with Bjug that could avoid a buyout, but if none of those come to fruition (retirement, LTIR, trade), then I would buy him out. The savings the first year ($3.5M) are too enticing to worry about $1.75M the next year, IMO. He might not be too hard to move considering he only has one year left.
MacPatty
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.21.2015

Aug 8 @ 9:06 PM ET
Maybe I shouldn't be but im surprised everyone is so worked up. poopty result against a team with a goalie who played pretty darn well.

The whole fire Sullivan thing is a bit weak. The suggestion that Boudreau should come in is laughable. I prefer to keep Sullivan but Babcock is the only guy I would take otherwise.

Its obvious the Pens need to change the mix. They need some legit, good defenceman. They need a right handed forward with a shot.

Lafreniere would be a god send. Even if they don't get him, picking in the top 15 the Pens should get a really nice prospect.

Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Aug 8 @ 9:11 PM ET
Bruins coach Bruce Cassidy was asked if he watched any of the action yesterday. He said he watched a lot of the #Pens game: "I'm a little surprised they didn't have a better push."
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

Aug 8 @ 9:20 PM ET
Bruins coach Bruce Cassidy was asked if he watched any of the action yesterday. He said he watched a lot of the #Pens game: "I'm a little surprised they didn't have a better push."
- Tojo.


The more I think about what I watched the more I think they were told/coached to play very reserved and tight, sit back...what we witnessed doesn't make sense compared to the up tempo and a bit more wide open risk taking of the first 2.5 games when they out chanced and majorly out shot and out shot attempted them..out played them for long stretches. Price was majorly up to task though.


If was f'n stink puck.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Aug 8 @ 9:24 PM ET
I'm inclined to agree with this. I think there are a lot of factors with Bjug that could avoid a buyout, but if none of those come to fruition (retirement, LTIR, trade), then I would buy him out. The savings the first year ($3.5M) are too enticing to worry about $1.75M the next year, IMO. He might not be too hard to move considering he only has one year left.
- Hockey66

I'd retain half salary this year on Bjugstad before buying him out. But I'm also not trying to find money for one of the top RWs in FA.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Aug 8 @ 9:26 PM ET
The more I think about what I watched the more I think they were told/coached to play very reserved and tight, sit back...what we witnessed doesn't make sense compared to the up tempo and a bit more wide open risk taking of the first 2.5 games when they out chanced and majorly out shot and out shot attempted them..out played them for long stretches. Price was majorly up to task though.


If was f'n stink puck.

- MattStrat

It was and it certainly looked intentional. They looked like either they were scared to do something stupid on bad ice or had no legs the way they played. Not saying either of those are true, just they played like it.
Hockey66
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.05.2019

Aug 8 @ 9:34 PM ET
I'd retain half salary this year on Bjugstad before buying him out. But I'm also not trying to find money for one of the top RWs in FA.
- Tojo.

Really? Who are your top 6 RWs? What do you want to spend the $5M cap space and the Bjug / JJ savings on (~$10M+)? 3C should only take up half of that at most. Top 4 D seems pretty well set.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Aug 8 @ 10:05 PM ET
Really? Who are your top 6 RWs? What do you want to spend the $5M cap space and the Bjug / JJ savings on (~$10M+)? 3C should only take up half of that at most. Top 4 D seems pretty well set.
- Hockey66


No one worth a damn as right handed, RW UFA except Toffoli and I don't really have much interest in him.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Aug 8 @ 10:22 PM ET
No one worth a damn as right handed, RW UFA except Toffoli and I don't really have much interest in him.
- j.boyd919

That's how I feel too. The PP guy everyone wants isn't even in FA. I like Toffoli, but he'll probably get overpaid and he's more like another Zucker than a PP guy.

To answer Hockey66, I'd look for a smart fit in a lower tier. Don't really have names atm, just know the top guys aren't worth the future cap headaches to me. Craig Smith is an affordable guy, but also not a PP specialist. Can't really find a good fit honestly in this group of free agents.
10inchTerror
Joined: 10.13.2019

Aug 8 @ 11:32 PM ET
Hmmm...I like his game and his size - he would be a good fit next to Crosby, IMO. Two problems, though - he is a RFA (as you mention) and dealing with CBJ (if they, indeed, want to deal him in the first place). Then we have to give up assets to get him. I would rather look at free-to-acquire FAs first.
- Hockey66


I know, I just love his game and after this last season and if they really do have his replacement in the pipeline then maybe he’s a pretty minor trade.. if cbus would even deal with Ruth.. that’s prob the bigger kibosh

My issue with toffoli would be that at the age of 28 he’s going to want to get paid and a decent term which I wouldn’t really want to give him either if it were my call. 2-3 years sure.
Hockey66
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.05.2019

Aug 8 @ 11:39 PM ET
That's how I feel too. The PP guy everyone wants isn't even in FA. I like Toffoli, but he'll probably get overpaid and he's more like another Zucker than a PP guy.

To answer Hockey66, I'd look for a smart fit in a lower tier. Don't really have names atm, just know the top guys aren't worth the future cap headaches to me. Craig Smith is an affordable guy, but also not a PP specialist. Can't really find a good fit honestly in this group of free agents.

- Tojo.

I'm surprised you two are putting so much emphasis on the PP (which sucks, granted) for a FA RW. I mean, just put Rust there and be done with it. I don't think handedness should be much of a factor in making sure Crosby and Malkin have the best 5v5 wingers possible in the twilight of their careers, which is here.

The next tier down is guys like Namestnikov, Granlund, and Craig Smith. None of them really blow my skirt up but they are better than nothing I suppose.

So, we obviously need a 1/2 RW and a 3C. Who do you want for those positions? Trades are pretty hard to predict this time of year. I'd like to make a bigger splash in FA than we did last year with just that ridiculous contract we gave Tanev.

I almost feel like the fans are becoming complacent and feel like this is a Cup contending team as is. Every other team around us is kicking ass in FA and trades and we are pretty much standing still. Not going to cut it going forward.
Hockey66
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.05.2019

Aug 8 @ 11:44 PM ET
I know, I just love his game and after this last season and if they really do have his replacement in the pipeline then maybe he’s a pretty minor trade.. if cbus would even deal with Ruth.. that’s prob the bigger kibosh

My issue with toffoli would be that at the age of 28 he’s going to want to get paid and a decent term which I wouldn’t really want to give him either if it were my call. 2-3 years sure.

- 10inchTerror

Well, the window is 2-3 years max, so anything after that doesn't matter a whole lot. What's the max money and term you would give for guys like Hoffman, Dadonov, and Toffoli?

I just want the best honest-to-goodness effort possible, and now is more important than next year. Tinkering isn't going to cut it. These last two playoffs were a disgrace.
10inchTerror
Joined: 10.13.2019

Aug 9 @ 12:06 AM ET
Well, the window is 2-3 years max, so anything after that doesn't matter a whole lot. What's the max money and term you would give for guys like Hoffman, Dadonov, and Toffoli?

I just want the best honest-to-goodness effort possible, and now is more important than next year. Tinkering isn't going to cut it. These last two playoffs were a disgrace.

- Hockey66



I think they are all pretty similar contracts. I’m no wiz when it comes to contracts but I could see 5-6m for 5 years.


Toffoli would be my least preferred based on him peaking at 58 points. LA sucking I’m sure contributes to that but both Hoffman and Dadonov put up 70 on a mediocre panthers team. Hoffman would be my top choice of the 2 Florida players as he has shown to be pretty healthy over the years and has more pp experience even if it’s for the 2nd unit.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Aug 9 @ 12:43 AM ET
I'm surprised you two are putting so much emphasis on the PP (which sucks, granted) for a FA RW. I mean, just put Rust there and be done with it. I don't think handedness should be much of a factor in making sure Crosby and Malkin have the best 5v5 wingers possible in the twilight of their careers, which is here.

The next tier down is guys like Namestnikov, Granlund, and Craig Smith. None of them really blow my skirt up but they are better than nothing I suppose.

So, we obviously need a 1/2 RW and a 3C. Who do you want for those positions? Trades are pretty hard to predict this time of year. I'd like to make a bigger splash in FA than we did last year with just that ridiculous contract we gave Tanev.

I almost feel like the fans are becoming complacent and feel like this is a Cup contending team as is. Every other team around us is kicking ass in FA and trades and we are pretty much standing still. Not going to cut it going forward.

- Hockey66

I agree that Rust us as good as anything out there. Targeting a rightly is for the PP and as you said Rust is as good as anyone you'd get in free agency. He gad 17 PP points this year in limited time there. Toffoli's career high is 12.

I don't like spending big money on a forward who won't be on the top PP. They can swing a guy in the 4-5M range pretty easily and that's what I'd do. In that case, I can agree about not worrying about handedness, just find a guy to round out the top 6. Guys like Smith and Granlund would be on my radar if the price fits. I like Anderson though there's risk there and I can't see a deal with Columbus anyways.

There might be a better fit in the trade market, I really haven't been looking into that lately.
TheGame316
Joined: 11.18.2008

Aug 9 @ 12:59 AM ET
I mean, the only downside to buying out JJ is 3 years at $917K after the window has closed. That's nothing. Burying him means we are still paying him ~$2.25M against the cap every year.

Here is the difference between buying out and burying:

2020 / 2021: $1.17M + $2.08 cap gained vs. $2.25M cap lost = $4.33M difference
2021 / 2022: $1.17M + $2.08 cap gained vs. $2.25M cap lost = $4.33M difference
2022 / 2023: $1.92M + $1.33 cap gained vs. $2.25M cap lost = $3.58M difference

That's too much just to avoid 3 years of $917K starting 3 years from now.

- Hockey66


What are you talking about?

Cap hit if he's down in the AHL 2.25 Million

Cap hit if we buy him out (Dead Money) 1.17 Million, 1.17M, 1,92M

you save 1.1 Million buying him out (for 2 years and 300k for 1 year) but you have to eat an extra 3 years of 917k in dead money

Just bury him and be done with it. There are far far worse contracts in the NHL than Jack Johnson and his 2.25 Million buried cap hit
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Aug 9 @ 1:20 AM ET
Pittsburgh: Has two years of non Cup victory, largely because of Jack Johnson being a thing.
Also Pittsburgh: New coach time?

Winnipeg: 4 straight years of disappointment.
Also Winnipeg: Extends Maurice.
Hockey66
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.05.2019

Aug 9 @ 1:36 AM ET
What are you talking about?

Cap hit if he's down in the AHL 2.25 Million

Cap hit if we buy him out (Dead Money) 1.17 Million, 1.17M, 1,92M

you save 1.1 Million buying him out (for 2 years and 300k for 1 year) but you have to eat an extra 3 years of 917k in dead money

Just bury him and be done with it. There are far far worse contracts in the NHL than Jack Johnson and his 2.25 Million buried cap hit

- TheGame316

You're right - I was combining the buyout savings with the bury hit, which isn't right. I still think buying him out is better. An extra $1.1M, $1.1M, and $300K for the next 3 years is probably better than the $917K dead money on the last 3 when the window is closed. Plus a coach won't be tempted to call him up.
Hockey66
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.05.2019

Aug 9 @ 1:42 AM ET
I agree that Rust us as good as anything out there. Targeting a rightly is for the PP and as you said Rust is as good as anyone you'd get in free agency. He gad 17 PP points this year in limited time there. Toffoli's career high is 12.

I don't like spending big money on a forward who won't be on the top PP. They can swing a guy in the 4-5M range pretty easily and that's what I'd do. In that case, I can agree about not worrying about handedness, just find a guy to round out the top 6. Guys like Smith and Granlund would be on my radar if the price fits. I like Anderson though there's risk there and I can't see a deal with Columbus anyways.

There might be a better fit in the trade market, I really haven't been looking into that lately.

- Tojo.

That makes sense.

Maybe we make a draft-day trade involving #15, although, to my knowledge, draft-day trades where a team tries to trade up because a player is falling usually just involves draft picks. But that could be ok, too.

Ok, so let's say we get either Smith or Granlund at a reasonable cost ($5-$6M range?). What's our next priority? Has to be 3C, yes? I think we could have about $4-$5M left.
Hockey66
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.05.2019

Aug 9 @ 1:45 AM ET
Pittsburgh: Has two years of non Cup victory, largely because of Jack Johnson being a thing.
Also Pittsburgh: New coach time?

Winnipeg: 4 straight years of disappointment.
Also Winnipeg: Extends Maurice.

- Rexypoo

I don't know about JJ being largely the reason, but he's certainly a big factor. Yes, absolutely, new coach time.

I feel for you. The Pens signed Sullivan to a 4 year extension after the Isles debacle. That move looks more insane all the time. Another reason for GMJR to go.
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Aug 9 @ 2:47 AM ET
I don't know about JJ being largely the reason, but he's certainly a big factor. Yes, absolutely, new coach time.

I feel for you. The Pens signed Sullivan to a 4 year extension after the Isles debacle. That move looks more insane all the time. Another reason for GMJR to go.

- Hockey66


To be fair to the Penguins as a whole, Sullivan is a very good coach who made some weird ass decisions in this last series. There are actually entire essays on how his refusal to bury JJ cost them this entire season
Hockey66
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.05.2019

Aug 9 @ 4:44 AM ET
To be fair to the Penguins as a whole, Sullivan is a very good coach who made some weird ass decisions in this last series. There are actually entire essays on how his refusal to bury JJ cost them this entire season
- Rexypoo

He got completely outcoached by Trotz last year, too, and thus swept by an inferior team. Sullivan is good at creating a disciplined system, but he's terrible at roster and lineup choices as well as adapting strategy on-the-fly. I think coaches get stale after a while and players start tuning them out. This Pens team is incredibly stale and uninspired.
Thunderbolt
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Wampum, PA
Joined: 01.20.2014

Aug 9 @ 7:37 AM ET
All this talk of buying out players reminds of the last guy we bought out. You remember, ole what's his name?
Thunderbolt
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Wampum, PA
Joined: 01.20.2014

Aug 9 @ 7:41 AM ET
To be fair to the Penguins as a whole, Sullivan is a very good coach who made some weird ass decisions in this last series. There are actually entire essays on how his refusal to bury JJ cost them this entire season
- Rexypoo


Pittsburgh lost because they have gotten too slow, undisciplined and soft (particularly in front of net).
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

Aug 9 @ 8:40 AM ET
Pittsburgh lost because they have gotten too slow, undisciplined and soft (particularly in front of net).
- Thunderbolt


Funny that they didn't look too slow at all the first 2.5 games. Geno was full clip mode at times this season... Which was only months ago. Also, Sid was injured almost all of camp and I can't help but think it was still nagging a bit. Guentzel not fully back to speed, he's only 25 and Letang looked the most rusty of everyone IMO.

Having said this, they're definitely not as fast as they used to be and that makes me think as they are in the back years maybe it's time to change team strategies to suit this. They still have piles of skill, strength and IQ. Look how effective Jagr was at this age and older. He slowed down but was still super effective.
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