This season....I don’t care about last year or the leafs years, taking about now.
- ClaudeFather

He was on pace for 23 goals and 50 points this season. Down for sure. Not crazy low though either.

I saw a better all around player this year though.

It is absolutely is what we're talking about here. What makes you the spokesman for what "we" are talking about? There was no reason to shift the probabilities.
- MJL

So, the NHL did it for the heck of it?

He was on pace for 23 goals and 50 points this season. Down for sure. Not crazy low though either.

I saw a better all around player this year though.
- mickel25

People keep mentioning all around play but we got a whole new coaching staff and almost everyone played a better all around game that is irrelevant.

About JVR and his lackluster play.. the guy just got to spend the most Magicka moments at home with his daughter for the last few months. I understand that these guys are pros and they do this for a living but there is a very human side to all of them. Being a new father and being present for the first couple months of your child's life would be very hard to walk away from and go live in a bubble and not get to see or hold your baby again. I'm sure that sucks for him and will take adjusting. But I will call it now... Once his family is living in the bubble with him I expect him to have a fire pit under him and think he will go on a tear. .it's just my opinion but as a father it sucked going back to work after my daughter was born. I couldn't wait to come home and see and hold her. I think that is what is happening with JVR
- Bob Habib

Once his family is living in the bubble?

So, the NHL did it for the heck of it?
- PT21

This was already addressed in the thread.

People keep mentioning all around play but we got a whole new coaching staff and almost everyone played a better all around game that is irrelevant.
- ClaudeFather

So if everyone but JVR played a better all around game, would that be relevant?

This was already addressed in the thread.
- MJL

No, in 2012 and 2016.

So if everyone but JVR played a better all around game, would that be relevant?
- MJL

Sure would, I recall people saying Jake playing a better all around game as well, potentially even by you. Do you think him and jvr just got better defensively or did they buy into what the coach was implementing? Was there a sacrifice in points due to this? Maybe. I just feel jvrs game leaves a lot to be be desired.

that was not "lucky", we had the worst record that year and Chicago jumped ahead of us to get Kane. Or maybe you are talking about NoPa, we'll see how "lucky" that turns out to be.
- backfire

Obviously I was talking about getting the #2 pick when we had a ~2% chance. That's luck. What we did with it (selecting NoPa) doesn't factor into that.

Jim Collins talks about what organizations are "lucky" and which ones are "unlucky". He developed this term "Return on Luck" and it states that every organization has luck events and some are able to get spectacular returns based on their decisions up to that point while others are fated to fail despite having a similar amount of luck events.

So the Flyers probably won't see a return on their luck event but they still should be able to achieve some success because they made other smaller decisions that will help them. Contrast that with NJ or EDM, which can't seem to make a good decision if it were to punch them in the face and their luck events (#1 picks) have not helped them at all. The Flyers are in a much better position to weather a #2 pick that didn't turn out the way we'd hoped. But that's because they did make good decisions about personnel over an extended period of time.

Sure would, I recall people saying Jake playing a better all around game as well, potentially even by you. Do you think him and jvr just got better defensively or did they buy into what the coach was implementing? Was there a sacrifice in points due to this? Maybe. I just feel jvrs game leaves a lot to be be desired.
- ClaudeFather

I would argue he is the same player he always has been maybe with a dash of defensive responsibility added. He just has a large contract tied to his name now.

Obviously I was talking about getting the #2 pick when we had a ~2% chance. That's luck. What we did with it (selecting NoPa) doesn't factor into that.

Jim Collins talks about what organizations are "lucky" and which ones are "unlucky". He developed this term "Return on Luck" and it states that every organization has luck events and some are able to get spectacular returns based on their decisions up to that point while others are fated to fail despite having a similar amount of luck events.

So the Flyers probably won't see a return on their luck event but they still should be able to achieve some success because they made other smaller decisions that will help them. Contrast that with NJ or EDM, which can't seem to make a good decision if it were to punch them in the face and their luck events (#1 picks) have not helped them at all. The Flyers are in a much better position to weather a #2 pick that didn't turn out the way we'd hoped. But that's because they did make good decisions about personnel over an extended period of time.
- atibus

I agree with everything that you said but would extend the luck factor to not just drafting but contracts.
Teams that win cups do so because players on average, out perform their contracts. A $10m player might play like a $12m dollar one. A player on an ELC might catch fire.

To be even more precise, the teams that win have players outperform their contracts relative to other teams.

The reasoning is simple: assuming salary caps are met for contending teams, if contracts are given out on expected production, and if markets are efficient then teams would play to a draw every night.

Call the relative outperforming "contractual luck"

No, in 2012 and 2016.
- PT21

It was already addressed in the thread.

I would argue he is the same player he always has been maybe with a dash of defensive responsibility added. He just has a large contract tied to his name now.
- mickel25

Agreed. Maybe a tad slower (not that he was ever quick) but a bit more reliable.

On another note... could I care LESS about Van/Minnesota? No, I could not. I'd rather do chores that watch that.

Sure would, I recall people saying Jake playing a better all around game as well, potentially even by you. Do you think him and jvr just got better defensively or did they buy into what the coach was implementing? Was there a sacrifice in points due to this? Maybe. I just feel jvrs game leaves a lot to be be desired.
- ClaudeFather

So if that is relevant and would you criticize JVR if he was the only player who wasn't playing a better all around game? If so then your comment on what is irrelevant is poorly thought out.

I agree with everything that you said but would extend the luck factor to not just drafting but contracts.
Teams that win cups do so because players on average, out perform their contracts. A $10m player might play like a $12m dollar one. A player on an ELC might catch fire.

To be even more precise, the teams that win have players outperform their contracts relative to other teams.

The reasoning is simple: assuming salary caps are met for contending teams, if contracts are given out on expected production, and if markets are efficient then teams would play to a draw every night.

Call the relative outperforming "contractual luck"
- PT21

You ridiculously overcomplicate everything.

So if that is relevant and would you criticize JVR if he was the only player who wasn't playing a better all around game? If so then your comment on what is irrelevant is poorly thought out.
- MJL

Ok

Is anyone aware that JVR was tied for 4th among Flyers forward in EVP? Tied with #28 in EVP with 31 each. In 3 less games. JVR had a solid season before getting injured.
- MJL

I’m not as low on JVR as others, I don’t see anything wrong with what I said. I even gave him credit for his extremely bad puck luck. In general, the individual points were down since the wealth was more spread this yeae

Welp no JVR today if that wasn’t announced

Carlson confirmed out, too

Welp no JVR today if that wasn’t announced
- arichardson22

Probably because the coaching staff love what they see in his game and figured he needed a night off.

I’m not as low on JVR as others, I don’t see anything wrong with what I said. I even gave him credit for his extremely bad puck luck. In general, the individual points were down since the wealth was more spread this yeae
- arichardson22

I agree. I think you've been spot on in your analysis. I just offered that to add some insight into the conversation.

I agree. I think you've been spot on in your analysis. I just offered that to add some insight into the conversation.
- MJL

Glad we agree! What are you thoughts on him being benched in favor of Bunny?

Glad we agree! What are you thoughts on him being benched in favor of Bunny?
- arichardson22

Not MJL but I won't lose sleep over it. It's playoff time. I just care about winning games. If AV thinks Bunnaman is the better option I trust him.

JVR sitting tonight

Not MJL but I won't lose sleep over it. It's playoff time. I just care about winning games. If AV thinks Bunnaman is the better option I trust him.
- mickel25

I fully trust AV as well. I guess it can’t hurt to throw Bunnaman for a playoff game in case we need him along the run. Not that this game doesn’t matter, but less on the line compared to a full-on series. Get the boy his experience!

Let’s go Flyers!