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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Stuart: Dorion's Best Trade: The Final Countdown
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sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jul 4 @ 11:39 AM ET
I think you meant that differently (Rossi maybe?)
- spatso


yes, my bad. if you get stutzle at 3, makes sense to take Rossi at 5 (not byfield)
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 4 @ 11:40 AM ET
It looks like the Sens return for Karlsson will likely include.

Stutzle
Soogard
Norris
Tierney
Balcers
#3 (2020) for Demelo

It is a lot.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jul 4 @ 11:42 AM ET
I don't discount the luck factor.

However, when a team is clearly trading for futures, you have to allow some time to assess the value of the future asset.

- spatso


sure, but when you get a team's 1st rd pick, a team that everyone thought was a cup contender, and that team goes to poop and ends up getting you the 3rd overall pick.....that's 100% luck. there is ZERO chance that Dorion thought he was getting anything more than a late 1st rd pick in that deal.

if you go back and read the articles and comments, at the time the trade was made, NOBODY thought Ottawa got a good return
RedC21
Calgary Flames
Joined: 01.18.2013

Jul 4 @ 11:51 AM ET
The idea that you have to compare results of a deal based on the immediate return is nutz. By this standard Ottawa won the trade with Colorado for Duchene. Calgary got fleeced when they gave up Joe Nieuendyk for a prospect.

Teams that are going for "it" trade prospects and/or picks for accomplished players. Rebuild teams trade players for picks and/or prospects. How can anybody say you have to measure the result on the day of deal. Would not some of you making investment decisions on the stock market.

- spatso


I see what you’re saying but I’ll try to word my opinion a little differently. At the time of the Karlsson trade everyone said the sens got fleeced, arguably the return as it stands now is closer to what the value the sens should have got in the first place, where the only way the pageau trade won’t look like an absolute steal for the sens is if their selection is a bust, but the likely worst case scenario is that the player winds up a 3rd liner like pageau and the other picks the sens got don’t pan out which is still a pretty good haul for a mediocre player they were either going to let walk in free agency or overpay on a contract extension.
Maverick1818
Ottawa Senators
Location: PEI
Joined: 02.06.2015

Jul 4 @ 12:21 PM ET
if you draft Byfield it would be completely redundant and pointless to draft rossi…...would much prefer to take Raymond or Drysdale.

if you get stutzle at 3 (who's likely a LW in the NHL instead of a C) then it makes sense to take Byfield

- sensarmy_11


It's pretty clear Stutzle and Byfield will be #2 and #3.
Personally I like Byfield better and LA has been very high on Stutzle.

Drysdale makes perfect sense for Ottawa at #5

I was just saying I think it would be a good idea to try for
#3. Byfield or Stutzle
#5. Drysdale
Then try to trade up to also pick up Rossi
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jul 4 @ 12:26 PM ET
I see what you’re saying but I’ll try to word my opinion a little differently. At the time of the Karlsson trade everyone said the sens got fleeced, arguably the return as it stands now is closer to what the value the sens should have got in the first place, where the only way the pageau trade won’t look like an absolute steal for the sens is if their selection is a bust, but the likely worst case scenario is that the player winds up a 3rd liner like pageau and the other picks the sens got don’t pan out which is still a pretty good haul for a mediocre player they were either going to let walk in free agency or overpay on a contract extension.
- RedC21


a trade can look bad when it's made, only to have it turn into a win based on luck.....the karlsson to SJ trade, the Duchene to Ottawa trade (nobody thought that would be a 4th overall pick), etc.

people who only look at trades in hindsight to determine whether it's good or bad are basically giving GMs a pass. a trade that is total poop when it's made, but turns out to be a win based on luck, should never be a "plus" for that GM.....it should count as "they made a bad deal and got (frank)ing lucky"
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jul 4 @ 12:31 PM ET
It's pretty clear Stutzle and Byfield will be #2 and #3.
Personally I like Byfield better and LA has been very high on Stutzle.

Drysdale makes perfect sense for Ottawa at #5

I was just saying I think it would be a good idea to try for
#3. Byfield or Stutzle
#5. Drysdale
Then try to trade up to also pick up Rossi

- Maverick1818


my point was simply that, IMO, it would be a waste to get 2 centers with those top 3 picks.....especially when there is real need for a high skill winger on this team.

getting byfield and rossi, when you already have Norris, brown, white, pinto, chlapik, Tierney, etc...….there are only so many slots in the NHL, so unless you plan on trading brown and converting Norris to the wing, it's too many centers and not enough quality on the wing.....that's why I think Raymond or holtz are better picks at 5, if you get byfield at 3. I also have no issues getting Drysdale, but again, the sens have a greater need on the wing than they do on D, but this is a BPA situation so I would have no issues taking the D in that case.
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Jul 4 @ 12:32 PM ET
It's pretty clear Stutzle and Byfield will be #2 and #3.
Personally I like Byfield better and LA has been very high on Stutzle.

Drysdale makes perfect sense for Ottawa at #5

I was just saying I think it would be a good idea to try for
#3. Byfield or Stutzle
#5. Drysdale
Then try to trade up to also pick up Rossi

- Maverick1818


If they get Byfield, and Drysdale, Ottawa would have a top center and top D prospect from the same draft, and still have another first rounder plus those seconds. That would be amazing, even if I really want two forwards.

Since there's less consensus about Stutzles ability to translate to center, I think it more likely they take Pefeffi or Rossi with him.
SensGatineau
Ottawa Senators
Location: GATINEAU, QC
Joined: 05.15.2020

Jul 4 @ 12:58 PM ET
Perfect choice with the Isles pick!...P.Dorion needs to take 3 FWD's with our 1st rounders....PLenty of excellent D's in the 2nd round...
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Jul 4 @ 1:08 PM ET
What would you guys trade for the 8th pick in the 1st
Maverick1818
Ottawa Senators
Location: PEI
Joined: 02.06.2015

Jul 4 @ 1:08 PM ET
my point was simply that, IMO, it would be a waste to get 2 centers with those top 3 picks.....especially when there is real need for a high skill winger on this team.

getting byfield and rossi, when you already have Norris, brown, white, pinto, chlapik, Tierney, etc...….there are only so many slots in the NHL, so unless you plan on trading brown and converting Norris to the wing, it's too many centers and not enough quality on the wing.....that's why I think Raymond or holtz are better picks at 5, if you get byfield at 3. I also have no issues getting Drysdale, but again, the sens have a greater need on the wing than they do on D, but this is a BPA situation so I would have no issues taking the D in that case.

- sensarmy_11


I agree, although same as Stutzle, Byfield has also played wing and some articles even say he prefers wing.

I'd say in the position Ottawa is in, I don't think we focus on positions, we should focus on getting the best talent possible moving forward. You can always move players around where they are needed. Plus all these guys are a few years out from their full potential, lots of time to develop and Ottawa isn't going to be contending for a few years anyways.

For me, Drysdale is pick we should 100% go for. That would lock up our future D core in a huge way.
SensGatineau
Ottawa Senators
Location: GATINEAU, QC
Joined: 05.15.2020

Jul 4 @ 1:26 PM ET
It looks like the Sens return for Karlsson will likely include.

Stutzle
Soogard
Norris
Tierney
Balcers
#3 (2020) for Demelo

It is a lot.

- spatso
+ a 2nd rounder in 2021

Only_A_Ladd
Los Angeles Kings
Location: TERRACE LANCO, CA
Joined: 06.06.2013

Jul 4 @ 1:29 PM ET
My order of players (best for Sens)

01. Stutzle
02. Byfield (#1C is a need, but I feel Sens will mishandle his dev't)
03. Raymond
04. Rossi
05. Perfetti
06. Holtz
07. Drysdale
08. Quinn
09. Sanderson
10. Askarov
11. Jarvis
12. Lappiere (if health is no issue)
13. Holloway
14. Guhle

- AlfieisKing


No Lundell or Gunler? The latter is more likely to be there with the Sens 3rd pick (if Isles don't win the lottery).
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jul 4 @ 1:41 PM ET
What would you guys trade for the 8th pick in the 1st
- Buff36


i'd trade the Isles pick, plus Ottawa's 2nd rd pick (33rd), and pick 46 (believe it's CBJ pick).

if prefer, swap pick 33 for Logan Brown or pick 46 for a roster player.....ie. Chris Tierney, Connor Brown, etc
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Jul 4 @ 1:47 PM ET
i'd trade the Isles pick, plus Ottawa's 2nd rd pick (33rd), and pick 46 (believe it's CBJ pick).

if prefer, swap pick 33 for Logan Brown or pick 46 for a roster player.....ie. Chris Tierney, Connor Brown, etc

- sensarmy_11

Logan Brown, Batherson, 33rd
Only_A_Ladd
Los Angeles Kings
Location: TERRACE LANCO, CA
Joined: 06.06.2013

Jul 4 @ 1:52 PM ET
Logan Brown, Batherson, 33rd
- Buff36


Devils would match that with a better pick at 7. Batherson is too valuable a piece.
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Jul 4 @ 1:53 PM ET
Devils would match that with a better pick at 7. Batherson is too valuable a piece.
- Only_A_Ladd

Damn Devils
RedC21
Calgary Flames
Joined: 01.18.2013

Jul 4 @ 1:55 PM ET
i'd trade the Isles pick, plus Ottawa's 2nd rd pick (33rd), and pick 46 (believe it's CBJ pick).

if prefer, swap pick 33 for Logan Brown or pick 46 for a roster player.....ie. Chris Tierney, Connor Brown, etc

- sensarmy_11


Personally the only team in the top 10 I can see that would be willing to move back is Chicago, and that’s only if they have aspirations to draft askarov. If buffalo is moving 8 it’s for an nhl ready player
Only_A_Ladd
Los Angeles Kings
Location: TERRACE LANCO, CA
Joined: 06.06.2013

Jul 4 @ 2:00 PM ET
Damn Devils
- Buff36


But then the Sens would be making a deal with the Devils, and you know how that always turns out.
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Jul 4 @ 2:06 PM ET
Personally the only team in the top 10 I can see that would be willing to move back is Chicago, and that’s only if they have aspirations to draft askarov. If buffalo is moving 8 it’s for an nhl ready player
- RedC21

Aren't Brown and Batherson both ready to go full time from what I have read on them. Both supposedly top 6.
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Jul 4 @ 2:10 PM ET
The lowest I've heard quinn dropping is to 12th. So,

How much would you pay?

Isles pick (15th), Columbus second, Senators third?

Is this enough? To steep?

- david22

Very good question

I'd be willing to trade the NYI pick + 2 2nd rounders. If the Islanders make the playoffs the pick will be around 20th* (could be lower if they go on a run)
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Jul 4 @ 2:10 PM ET
I like the Jarvis pick. But he has been shooting up the rankings really fast. Seen him start coming in as high as 12. Some really great talent available from 9 through 20.
Lapierre might be the best high risk/ high reward shot with the Islanders pick.

- spatso

Lappiere is a great choice, again, it all comes down to the health and whether a team thinks the health issue won't be there going forward in the future
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jul 4 @ 2:11 PM ET
Logan Brown, Batherson, 33rd
- Buff36


I don't think i'd do Batherson straight up for the 8th pick, let alone include the other assets. i'm not convinced anyone picked at 8 will be better than Batherson
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 4 @ 2:18 PM ET
It just makes no sense for the Sens to try and do a deal to move up from the 13 to 21 slot they got from the Isles. There is not a lot of difference in the players that might be available. No guarantees that if you moved up from 21 to 12 that you would get the better player.

It makes so much sense for the Sens either use the pick to draft what they believe is the BPA or deal the pick to a CAP challenged team.

At least 1/2 the teams are going to be CAP challenged. I think the Sens have a huge opportunity to leverage the Islanders pick into something very substantial.
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Jul 4 @ 2:18 PM ET
I know many here are against selecting a D, but I wonder if the isles pick winds up top 15 if the sens would lean towards drysdale at 5 knowing they could get a potentially elite forward like Quinn, Jarvis or Zary with the later pick
- RedC21
I hear ya.... a forward at 15 will have a lower ceiling than Stutzle, Raymond, Perfetti, Rossi. The Sens are most likely getting Stutzle. IF the Sens target Drysdale, that pushes Thomson and Bernard Docker competing for the other 2 spots on D.

I honestly believe there are enough D-men from 15-40 (Braden Schneider, William Wallinder, Helge Grans, Justin Barron, Jeremie Poirier, Ryan O'Rourke, Topi Niemela, Shakir Mukhamadullin). This makes me feel like the Sens will draft 1 or 2 of these D-men, especially with 4 first rounders

Edit: I really like O'Rourke, Wallinder, Grans. (I was high on Grans early on)
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