Best case scenario for us:

The top 3 lottery picks are won by the bottom 7 teams(hopefully one is us)

Arizona loses its qualifying round

Vancouver wins its qualifying round then loses in round 1 of the playoffs

If you want to go deeper then we also hope Montreal and Chicago win their qualifying rounds for a better Arizona pick

I just read how they are planning the draft 3 different times and still don’t fully understand how the Devils are impacted?

Todd - please help!
- Crushers68

Here's how I understand it:

The lottery is the same for the bottom 7 teams. The last 8 positions in the lottery are placeholders.

Devils have the 6th best odds at 7.5%. Nothing changes for our pick. We lost the tie break with Buffalo bc they have more ROW.

For Vancouver and Arizona, they only "make the playoffs" if they win the play in round. So if Vancouver loses to Minnesota, we don't get their pick.

Similarly, we don't get the condition on the Arizona 3rd going to a second if they win a round until after they "make the playoffs" and win a round.

The placeholder positions are sorted based on the teams that lose the play in. For Arizona (the 3rd worst record of the play in teams), this means their odds can be as high as 8 or as low as 10 if they lose the play in. They can then win the lottery as normal (albeit low odds) and we don't get the pick.

Best case scenario for us:

The top 3 lottery picks are won by the bottom 7 teams(hopefully one is us)

Arizona loses its qualifying round

Vancouver wins its qualifying round then loses in round 1 of the playoffs

If you want to go deeper then we also hope Montreal and Chicago win their qualifying rounds for a better Arizona pick
- vlongo4419

Best possible pick for us from Vancouver would be what?

Also the status of the Vancouver pick is a complete crapshoot. We're just hoping for them to make the playoffs. Past then, there's a road to 16, but there are so many teams involved, it's not even worth talking about.

Best possible pick for us from Vancouver would be what?
- MartysBetter88

So the teams of interest are Calgary, Winnipeg, Minnesota, Arizona, Chicago, NYR, Montreal and maybe Florida because they have a lower points percentage (Florida is tied in percentage and ROW so idk who wins the tie break). To get to 16, every team listed has to either lose the play in or make it farther in the playoffs. For each team that does not satisfy those conditions, Vancouver moves down a spot.

Best possible pick for us from Vancouver would be what?
- MartysBetter88

Around 16-20 is the best case scenario for that pick

Fun fact: the Devils would have made play in if they got just 2 more points this season.

Around 16-20 is the best case scenario for that pick
- vlongo4419

I don't think Vancouvers best case changes, if its 15 or higher it moves to next season. So if Vancouver doesn't make it out of the play in round, we get 2021.

I don't think Vancouvers best case changes, if its 15 or higher it moves to next season. So if Vancouver doesn't make it out of the play in round, we get 2021.
- rmdevil313

Exactly, nothing really changed from Vanvoucers pick perspective. They need to win the opening round to get into the playoffs for us to get their pick, if they lose then they keep it and we get their pick unprotected next year. To get the lowest possible pick from them, they then need to lose the 1st round of the playoffs

Around 16-20 is the best case scenario for that pick
- vlongo4419

So gimme 1st, 8th and 16th overall!! here we go! lol. So whens it start?

So gimme 1st, 8th and 16th overall!! here we go! lol. So whens it start?
- MartysBetter88

Seems like thats the absolute best case scenario, so lets hope! Very late July/early August sounds like that's the earliest if everything goes smoothly

IMO bottom 7 teams Boston, St Louis, and Pittsburgh all get screwed. Devils get screwed a little more because Arizona can still win a top 3 pick while only needing to win a short series to jump that pick back 7-10 picks when they were pretty much guaranteed to miss the playoffs. Teams 17-24 all benefit a lot from this system.

IMO bottom 7 teams Boston, St Louis, and Pittsburgh all get screwed. Devils get screwed a little more because Arizona can still win a top 3 pick while only needing to win a short series to jump that pick back 7-10 picks when they were pretty much guaranteed to miss the playoffs. Teams 17-24 all benefit a lot from this system.
- rmdevil313

I agree. This is why I'm not a fan. 10pts out of wildcard Habs should NOT have a chance to win the Cup cuz their regular season earned them that spot and the Pens earned the 5th seed. A 5th seed shouldn't have to risk being eliminated from the playoffs by a lottery team.

Here's how I understand it:

The lottery is the same for the bottom 7 teams. The last 8 positions in the lottery are placeholders.

Devils have the 6th best odds at 7.5%. Nothing changes for our pick. We lost the tie break with Buffalo bc they have more ROW.

For Vancouver and Arizona, they only "make the playoffs" if they win the play in round. So if Vancouver loses to Minnesota, we don't get their pick.

Similarly, we don't get the condition on the Arizona 3rd going to a second if they win a round until after they "make the playoffs" and win a round.

The placeholder positions are sorted based on the teams that lose the play in. For Arizona (the 3rd worst record of the play in teams), this means their odds can be as high as 8 or as low as 10 if they lose the play in. They can then win the lottery as normal (albeit low odds) and we don't get the pick.
- willschulme

Thanks. Making more sense now.

So gimme 1st, 8th and 16th overall!! here we go! lol. So whens it start?
- MartysBetter88

They say the lottery on June 26th and training camp no sooner than July.

Also seems like we won't see Devils hockey until well into 2021. January.

I agree. This is why I'm not a fan. 10pts out of wildcard Habs should NOT have a chance to win the Cup cuz their regular season earned them that spot and the Pens earned the 5th seed. A 5th seed shouldn't have to risk being eliminated from the playoffs by a lottery team.
- MartysBetter88

I feel like there was no good solution, someone would get screwed just sucks that its us. And it wouldn't be nearly as bad if we weren't possibly facing 10 straight months of not playing.

Apparently my understanding was wrong. If a placeholder team wins, each team that gets eliminated in the play in has an EQUAL 12.5% chance of getting the pick.

Holy poop.

It doesn't actually change the best case for us, but it does make the worst cases more likely.

Apparently my understanding was wrong. If a placeholder team wins, each team that gets eliminated in the play in has an EQUAL 12.5% chance of getting the pick.

Holy poop.

It doesn't actually change the best case for us, but it does make the worst cases more likely.
- willschulme

That actually helps us I think? Just looking at points Arizona has 3 worst record, so I figure they're chances would have been higher had the odds been weighted based on standings.

That actually helps us I think? Just looking at points Arizona has 3 worst record, so I figure they're chances would have been higher had the odds been weighted based on standings.
- rmdevil313

yea but I'm more concerned about us dropping from 6th than AZ's pick. I'm very happy with 6th. Fortunately the worst we can pick is 9th, but still. That's a hefty percentage for all those teams. .. teams that were GIFTED a shot at the Cup, and now gifted decent odds at winning the lottery. seems kind of.. asinine.

yea but I'm more concerned about us dropping from 6th than AZ's pick. I'm very happy with 6th. Fortunately the worst we can pick is 9th, but still. That's a hefty percentage for all those teams. .. teams that were GIFTED a shot at the Cup, and now gifted decent odds at winning the lottery. seems kind of.. asinine.
- MartysBetter88

Yup, agreed.

yea but I'm more concerned about us dropping from 6th than AZ's pick. I'm very happy with 6th. Fortunately the worst we can pick is 9th, but still. That's a hefty percentage for all those teams. .. teams that were GIFTED a shot at the Cup, and now gifted decent odds at winning the lottery. seems kind of.. asinine.
- MartysBetter88

Absolutely

I'm also thinking about how 5/16 play in teams are metro. This scenario makes it much easier for a lottery pick to end up in our division.

Fun fact: the Devils would have made play in if they got just 2 more points this season.
- willschulme

DOOMED

at least the all-important play-in rounds... or play-out rounds if you happened to already be firmly locked into a playoff spot.. will be best of 5s and not 7.. less games to know what the fate of our draft picks will be.

So gimme 1st, 8th and 16th overall!! here we go! lol. So whens it start?
- MartysBetter88

Just remember we will get screwed with this quasi playoff and lotto syatem. Probably get 9th this year and two pick between 16-25 next year. Doomed.