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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Are the Penguins getting screwed? That's a hard NO
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Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

May 25 @ 8:55 AM ET
Yohe said they want to try reuniting Guentzel-Sid-Sheary to see if they can refind their old chemistry. If they do that, lines are pretty easy to guess actually.

Guentzel-Sid-Sheary
Zucker-Malkin-Rust
Marleau-McCann-Hornqvist
ZAR-Blueger-Tanev

Zucker is Hagelin with hands if his leg healed with the break because he wasn't at top speed, so hopefully he and Malkin could have similar chemistry.

Pretty much everyone reporting it will be Murray to start but not unlimited rope of he starts poorly.

- Tojo.


I'm not saying I agree with what I'm about to say, but I wouldn't be surprised of Blueger sits over Bjugstad. Again, not that I want it, but because there seems to be a lot of love for him from the brass and staff.
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

May 25 @ 9:02 AM ET
I'm not saying I agree with what I'm about to say, but I wouldn't be surprised of Blueger sits over Bjugstad. Again, not that I want it, but because there seems to be a lot of love for him from the brass and staff.
- Rinosaur



He looked atrocious when he came back this season...now even more layoff. F that, Bluey all the way.

Youre probably right though.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

May 25 @ 9:11 AM ET
He looked atrocious when he came back this season...now even more layoff. F that, Bluey all the way.

Youre probably right though.

- MattStrat

I don’t know I feel like the org is over Bjugstad. The beat was throwing him into trade rumors as cap filler, and when the beat starts saying a player could be moved its because management leaked/gave the best the ok to say it.

As for the Murray v Jarry debate it’ll be interesting. Jarry had the much higher highs and Murray the lower lows, but by the time the season got shut down they were basically playing at the same level. Beats been saying it’ll probably be Murray because he’s still nominally the starter despite Jarry having the hot hand. I don’t think I’m invested in who starts this playoff either way, either would be fine, but I do feel strongly Murray should be traded this offseason.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

May 25 @ 9:21 AM ET
I don’t know I feel like the org is over Bjugstad. The beat was throwing him into trade rumors as cap filler, and when the beat starts saying a player could be moved its because management leaked/gave the best the ok to say it.

As for the Murray v Jarry debate it’ll be interesting. Jarry had the much higher highs and Murray the lower lows, but by the time the season got shut down they were basically playing at the same level. Beats been saying it’ll probably be Murray because he’s still nominally the starter despite Jarry having the hot hand. I don’t think I’m invested in who starts this playoff either way, either would be fine, but I do feel strongly Murray should be traded this offseason.

- Victoro311


I remember an article in the Athletic, can't remember from who, but it was basically an article where everyone from Rutherford to the players singing very high praise for Bjugstad. No idea how that will all pan out though. I'm sure they will have some kind of mini camp to try and figure it out.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

May 25 @ 10:06 AM ET
I'm not sure how much rope you can give a goalie in a five game series. One game?
- Rinosaur

Maybe even just a couple softies. From what I've read they decided to go with Murray because of his playoff success, but have confidence in Jarry too if Murray is in one of his funks or just can't shake the rust.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

May 25 @ 10:12 AM ET
I don’t know I feel like the org is over Bjugstad. The beat was throwing him into trade rumors as cap filler, and when the beat starts saying a player could be moved its because management leaked/gave the best the ok to say it.

As for the Murray v Jarry debate it’ll be interesting. Jarry had the much higher highs and Murray the lower lows, but by the time the season got shut down they were basically playing at the same level. Beats been saying it’ll probably be Murray because he’s still nominally the starter despite Jarry having the hot hand. I don’t think I’m invested in who starts this playoff either way, either would be fine, but I do feel strongly Murray should be traded this offseason.

- Victoro311

Agree with pretty much everything you said here. It sure sounds like they plan to move Bjugstad if they can. I'm not certain that means they've lost all confidence so much as they need to save cap space and he's a likely target.

I do think there isn't anyone who gets taken out for him to start though. I still don't see Sully messing with the Blueger line. Nor sitting McCann or Marleau. My guess is Bjugstad is the next guy in over Rod when there's an injury or if Sheary disappears as he has in other playoffs.
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

May 25 @ 10:16 AM ET
Agree with pretty much everything you said here. It sure sounds like they plan to move Bjugstad if they can. I'm not certain that means they've lost all confidence so much as they need to save cap space and he's a likely target.

I do think there isn't anyone who gets taken out for him to start though. I still don't see Sully messing with the Blueger line. Nor sitting McCann or Marleau. My guess is Bjugstad is the next guy in over Rod when there's an injury or if Sheary disappears as he has in other playoffs.

- Tojo.


I think ZAR-Bluey-Tanev is a must....

Totally forgot about Rod hahah...the trade deadline and hockey that went on before this pandemic feel like a lifetime ago in ways.
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

May 25 @ 10:17 AM ET
I don’t know I feel like the org is over Bjugstad. The beat was throwing him into trade rumors as cap filler, and when the beat starts saying a player could be moved its because management leaked/gave the best the ok to say it.

As for the Murray v Jarry debate it’ll be interesting. Jarry had the much higher highs and Murray the lower lows, but by the time the season got shut down they were basically playing at the same level. Beats been saying it’ll probably be Murray because he’s still nominally the starter despite Jarry having the hot hand. I don’t think I’m invested in who starts this playoff either way, either would be fine, but I do feel strongly Murray should be traded this offseason.

- Victoro311


I'd like to keep both goalies ...and have been pretty vocal about wanting them to be a combined cap hit of around 8/9 mill or less.

Is it possible the cap ceiling drops this year or next? If so, they cant keep both.

Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

May 25 @ 10:26 AM ET
Maybe even just a couple softies. From what I've read they decided to go with Murray because of his playoff success, but have confidence in Jarry too if Murray is in one of his funks or just can't shake the rust.
- Tojo.


If they win game 1 despite soft pay he'll probably get one more game.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

May 25 @ 10:46 AM ET
I'd like to keep both goalies ...and have been pretty vocal about wanting them to be a combined cap hit of around 8/9 mill or less.

Is it possible the cap ceiling drops this year or next? If so, they cant keep both.

- MattStrat

That's all hard to figure now. Before this, I think they definitely could have kept both another year if they wanted and both goalies were ok with it. Now, who knows. We don't know where the cap will be or if they'll do something like compliance buyouts.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

May 25 @ 11:41 AM ET
I'd like to keep both goalies ...and have been pretty vocal about wanting them to be a combined cap hit of around 8/9 mill or less.

Is it possible the cap ceiling drops this year or next? If so, they cant keep both.

- MattStrat

There's just a lot of headaches that come with that. A) That's a lot of cap tied up in tending even if 4.5 mil a piece for a starting tender is very reasonable. With the amount of fluctuations goalies experience in production year to year you just never want to be caught paying that much there, especially when league average goaltending can be found for not too much to fill the back spot. B) Both goalies have to buy into a time share while knowing full well that only one can start in the playoffs. This isn't a Sid-Malkin situation where people counterfeit narratives saying MaLkIn WaNtS tO bE tHe MaN. Geno still is an essential part of any Cup push and gets loads of ice time. In a goalie time share, someone's straight up not going to play. Tough pill to swallow when you know you can be a starter in this league and can cause locker room issues. Fleury was an all time human being and made the situation as easy on the org as humanly possible, and even he wanted to move on when given the opportunity. I don't expect Murray to be a little bumhole about it and pout, he's a professional, but I also don't really expect Murray to go out of his way to handle it with he utmost grace the same way Flower did.
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

May 25 @ 12:22 PM ET
There's just a lot of headaches that come with that. A) That's a lot of cap tied up in tending even if 4.5 mil a piece for a starting tender is very reasonable. With the amount of fluctuations goalies experience in production year to year you just never want to be caught paying that much there, especially when league average goaltending can be found for not too much to fill the back spot. B) Both goalies have to buy into a time share while knowing full well that only one can start in the playoffs. This isn't a Sid-Malkin situation where people counterfeit narratives saying MaLkIn WaNtS tO bE tHe MaN. Geno still is an essential part of any Cup push and gets loads of ice time. In a goalie time share, someone's straight up not going to play. Tough pill to swallow when you know you can be a starter in this league and can cause locker room issues. Fleury was an all time human being and made the situation as easy on the org as humanly possible, and even he wanted to move on when given the opportunity. I don't expect Murray to be a little bumhole about it and pout, he's a professional, but I also don't really expect Murray to go out of his way to handle it with he utmost grace the same way Flower did.
- Victoro311


I was thinking Murray is the starter but he and Jarry have a MAF/Murray type relationship. Murray gets 6/6.5 mill per with term and Jarry gets 2/3 mill per 2 year bridge deal kind of like Murray getting a two year bridge deal at 3.75 after he'd won 2 cups. Jarry shouldn't get Murray-post-2-cups-bridge amounts.

A quick glance at goalie situations around the league showed that a lot of teams have a 8+ mill cap hit for both goalie.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

May 25 @ 1:16 PM ET
I was thinking Murray is the starter but he and Jarry have a MAF/Murray type relationship. Murray gets 6/6.5 mill per with term and Jarry gets 2/3 mill per 2 year bridge deal kind of like Murray getting a two year bridge deal at 3.75 after he'd won 2 cups. Jarry shouldn't get Murray-post-2-cups-bridge amounts.

A quick glance at goalie situations around the league showed that a lot of teams have a 8+ mill cap hit for both goalie.

- MattStrat


Here's why I don't believe this works; You can bet any amount money that Murray will want some kind of NMC/NTC built into his contract, so carrying two starting goalies with an impending expansion draft is something I don't see happening. They will not risk losing Jarry for nothing or like send assets/futures to Seattle so they don't select him.

One of Jarry or Murray will not be a Penguin after this season and DeSmith will resume his backup duties.
Doogs
Season Ticket Holder
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh , PA
Joined: 09.16.2005

May 25 @ 2:39 PM ET
Here's why I don't believe this works; You can bet any amount money that Murray will want some kind a NMC/NTC built into his contract, so carrying two starting goalies with an impending expansion draft is something I don't see happening. They will not risk losing Jarry for nothing or like send assets/futures to Seattle so they don't select him.

One of Jarry or Murray will not be a Penguin after this season and DeSmith will resume his backup duties.

- Rinosaur


100% agreed.

And if the Cap “falls off the table” as it is rumored to possibly do, Jarry will likely get a lower number than Murray.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

May 25 @ 2:52 PM ET
100% agreed.

And if the Cap “falls off the table” as it is rumored to possibly do, Jarry will likely get a lower number than Murray.

- Doogs


I can't imagine any increase to the cap in the 20/21 season and with all the key free agents the Pens will want to re-sign I can't see them spending a collective $8/$9Mish number on goaltending when they can keep the same amount by re-signing Jarry and using DeSmith.

However, I will be curious to see what effect, if any, this whole situation will have on free agents. If they cap stays the same, I wonder how many FA's will be willing to take 1 year contracts with small raises in anticipation of the cap going back up after a normal season (if they are able to have a normal 20/21) season.

Also, no raise in the cap could also guarantee the Pens attempting to move JJ after the season.
Doogs
Season Ticket Holder
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh , PA
Joined: 09.16.2005

May 25 @ 3:29 PM ET
I can't imagine any increase to the cap in the 20/21 season and with all the key free agents the Pens will want to re-sign I can't see them spending a collective $8/$9Mish number on goaltending when they can keep the same amount by re-signing Jarry and using DeSmith.

However, I will be curious to see what effect, if any, this whole situation will have on free agents. If they cap stays the same, I wonder how many FA's will be willing to take 1 year contracts with small raises in anticipation of the cap going back up after a normal season (if they are able to have a normal 20/21) season.

Also, no raise in the cap could also guarantee the Pens attempting to move JJ after the season.

- Rinosaur


Don’t you tease!!!
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

May 25 @ 3:33 PM ET
Here's why I don't believe this works; You can bet any amount money that Murray will want some kind of NMC/NTC built into his contract, so carrying two starting goalies with an impending expansion draft is something I don't see happening. They will not risk losing Jarry for nothing or like send assets/futures to Seattle so they don't select him.

One of Jarry or Murray will not be a Penguin after this season and DeSmith will resume his backup duties.

- Rinosaur

In a scenario where Murray demanded a NMC it's a non-starter, although I'd only consider bringing him back on a 1 year deal anyways. I do think the cap situation has ended the idea of them keeping both though.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

May 25 @ 3:47 PM ET
There's just a lot of headaches that come with that. A) That's a lot of cap tied up in tending even if 4.5 mil a piece for a starting tender is very reasonable. With the amount of fluctuations goalies experience in production year to year you just never want to be caught paying that much there, especially when league average goaltending can be found for not too much to fill the back spot. B) Both goalies have to buy into a time share while knowing full well that only one can start in the playoffs. This isn't a Sid-Malkin situation where people counterfeit narratives saying MaLkIn WaNtS tO bE tHe MaN. Geno still is an essential part of any Cup push and gets loads of ice time. In a goalie time share, someone's straight up not going to play. Tough pill to swallow when you know you can be a starter in this league and can cause locker room issues. Fleury was an all time human being and made the situation as easy on the org as humanly possible, and even he wanted to move on when given the opportunity. I don't expect Murray to be a little bumhole about it and pout, he's a professional, but I also don't really expect Murray to go out of his way to handle it with he utmost grace the same way Flower did.
- Victoro311

As Matt said, many teams are spending that on goalies. I think teams are trying to shy away from spending big on a starter with a few noteworthy exceptions, but the trend is more towards a tandem and spending more on the back-up.

The fluctuation is actually my main reason for wanting both. If you have 2 starters and one struggles or is injured, you don't lose much if anything from using the other. But if Jarry struggles like Murray did, are you sold on DeSmith taking the load? Myself, I prefer a tandem over pinning all my hopes on one goalie, especially one without much of a track record of sustained success himself.

Now I feel giving Murray a fat extension would be a huge mistake. But that extra 3-4 million for the goalie insurance might be better than anything else you could spend it on.

Kind of don't see it happening now though anyways as they'll need to cut deeper for cap purposes.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

May 25 @ 4:00 PM ET
In a scenario where Murray demanded a NMC it's a non-starter, although I'd only consider bringing him back on a 1 year deal anyways. I do think the cap situation has ended the idea of them keeping both though.
- Tojo.


My gut tells me that even if Murray backstops this team to another cup he's still gone.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

May 25 @ 5:22 PM ET
My gut tells me that even if Murray backstops this team to another cup he's still gone.
- Rinosaur

Agree, I just like having the option of keeping him another year if he does in fact backstop them to the Cup. But that's an off-season decision that really doesn't need to be set now anyways.

Trading him and getting an asset probably works out best, it just isn't a slam dunk for me.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

May 25 @ 9:31 PM ET
Agree, I just like having the option of keeping him another year if he does in fact backstop them to the Cup. But that's an off-season decision that really doesn't need to be set now anyways.

Trading him and getting an asset probably works out best, it just isn't a slam dunk for me.

- Tojo.


I just think the financial situation is going to cause a lot of teams to make harder decisions.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

May 25 @ 9:41 PM ET
I just think the financial situation is going to cause a lot of teams to make harder decisions.
- Rinosaur

For certain. Tampa was already pretty screwed, although in their case maybe compliance buyouts help them navigate all those NTCs. Very vulnerable to offer sheet and 3 good RFAs they have to fit.
madmike71
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 12.21.2006

May 26 @ 9:29 AM ET
I just think the financial situation is going to cause a lot of teams to make harder decisions.
- Rinosaur


Rutherford has done a couple of interviews since the shutdown. He was directly asked about the goalie situation. He referred to the Murray/MAF scenario. Him hawed around it, but you could read into his comments about not being able to keep both. I think Murray is gone too. The reduced cap next season has basically mandated it.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

May 26 @ 9:40 AM ET
Rutherford has done a couple of interviews since the shutdown. He was directly asked about the goalie situation. He referred to the Murray/MAF scenario. Him hawed around it, but you could read into his comments about not being able to keep both. I think Murray is gone too. The reduced cap next season has basically mandated it.
- madmike71


I was going to ask this. I know the cap can stay where it is, but can they actually lower the cap?
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