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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Ghofrani: Sabres Draft Primer Part 3: Gaining An Edge In Rounds 2-7
Author Message
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

May 17 @ 12:11 PM ET
Was it playing with Joker, or did he just have a bad season because of the injury the year before. Should the Sabres have kept him and moved someone else.
Zone exits% and failure.

- Buff36


He's always been a solid 2nd/3rd pairing tweener but no one on the team understood how the hell to play Housley's defensive zone (man) scheme - including Housley
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

May 17 @ 12:21 PM ET
He's always been a solid 2nd/3rd pairing tweener but no one on the team understood how the hell to play Housley's defensive zone (man) scheme - including Housley
- jcragcrumple

Understand, but with 39 numbers and what he came up with it looks like we have been poopting all over McCabe when if fact he was one of the better defensive defenseman in the league. Would keeping Scandella been a good move.
Miller-McCabe
Joker-Scandella
Trade-Dahlin
Have been a better D setup to have gone forward with.
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

May 17 @ 12:24 PM ET
It aint armed robbery ...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52692098

- Der Kaiser


Imagine being an NFL player and pissing your life away for $12k
Wyohomeboy
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 11.18.2018

May 17 @ 12:53 PM ET
at least he was wearing a bills shirt



- homiedclown


He gone
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

May 17 @ 12:53 PM ET
Imagine being an NFL player and pissing your life away for $12k
- jcragcrumple


While driving in a Lambourghini as your getaway car...
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

May 17 @ 12:53 PM ET
He gone
- Wyohomeboy


Why?
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

May 17 @ 12:54 PM ET
It aint armed robbery ...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52692098

- Der Kaiser

kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

May 17 @ 12:54 PM ET
https://twitter.com/Pierr.../1262035285468200960?s=19

https://twitter.com/Pierr.../1262036012462637060?s=19

Sources indicate the Return To Play Committee has talked throughout the weekend, NHL-NHLPA making progress on a 24-team format. Sources also stressing there's still work to be done, but clearly the weekend has produced some traction. More talks expected over next day or two.

Again, tough to handicap at this point whether a format gets agreed upon this week or not but definite progress. A reminder that the NHL has a Board of Governors call Monday at 3 p.m. ET; and that the league may announce decision on the draft this week
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

May 17 @ 12:57 PM ET
https://theathletic.com/1...k=https://t.co/cKK8yC1668
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

May 17 @ 1:18 PM ET
https://www.hockeybuzz.co...ee-Agents-2020/269/105671

Disagree with the ordering of this list, almost entirely.
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

May 17 @ 1:35 PM ET
https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Matt-Ross/Free-Agents-2020/269/105671

Disagree with the ordering of this list, almost entirely.

- kingcong39

Der Kaiser
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I Know Nothink ... NOTHINK!
Joined: 07.27.2007

May 17 @ 2:02 PM ET

- homiedclown


You got me.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

May 17 @ 2:11 PM ET
Understand, but with 39 numbers and what he came up with it looks like we have been poopting all over McCabe when if fact he was one of the better defensive defenseman in the league. Would keeping Scandella been a good move.
Miller-McCabe
Joker-Scandella
Trade-Dahlin
Have been a better D setup to have gone forward with.

- Buff36


Here's what I found re: the Scandella project:

2019-2020 season

Scandella played with the following player from each of his three teams the most:

BUF - Jokiharju (33.54%)
MTL - Petry (16.80%)
STL - Parayko (17.38%)

During his team with each team, his advanced stats were:

BUF (TOI = 514.4) - GAR 5.6 WAR 1 SPAR 1.9 GF/60 .151 xGF/60 .105 CF/60 2.96 xGA/60 -.063 CA/60 -2.17
MTL (TOI = 352.6) - GAR 1.4 WAR 0.3 SPAR 0.5 GF/60 .005 xGF/60 -.011 CF/60 -1.65 xGA/60 .026 CA/60 -.12
STL (TOI = 223) - GAR 2.3 WAR 0.4 SPAR 0.8 GF/60 .008 xGF/60 .039 CF/60 -.33 xGA/60 -.101 CA/60 -1.92

All those numbers point to his time with Buffalo, and specifically his time with Jokiharju, considering he spent nearly 83% of his time on ice with Buffalo playing with Jokiharju, as his clear most productive minutes of the 19-20 season.

It looks like he struggled in Montreal with mainly Jeff Petry as his defense partner (Petry played well), while he rebounded with the Blues, which makes sense as the Blues were a better team, although it looks like Colton Parayko did him no favors with the season he had.

Looking at the past few seasons for Scandella showed the following:

19-20: Huge rebound and was a positive in the key advanced metrics
18-19: Had a horrible season in every way
17-18: Weak to bad season in 4 of the 5 advanced metrics
16-17: Middling to weak season in all 5 advanced metrics
15-16: Solid defensively, but weak to middling offensively
14-15: The last season he had as strong as the 19-20 season

Based on all of the above, I have the following takeaways:

Where did the 19-20 season come from, as the last time he played that well was 6 seasons ago, when he was 24-25?

Was it almost entirely due to Henri Jokiharju's abilities helping Scandella regain his confidence?

The evidence actually points to Scandella potentially helping Jokiharju more then the other way around.

Overall, Scandella had a strong season, and his best in 5 years, but it seemed to come out of nowhere, and the idea that he will repeat it feels...doubtful, at the age of 30 going on 31 in the middle of next season.

Trading Scandella was the right move. Perhaps holding on to him longer and waiting until closer to the deadline would have been more prudent, and using the trade capital received for him to trade for Frolik, well, that was not good, clearly.
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

May 17 @ 2:57 PM ET
Here's what I found re: the Scandella project:

2019-2020 season

Scandella played with the following player from each of his three teams the most:

BUF - Jokiharju (33.54%)
MTL - Petry (16.80%)
STL - Parayko (17.38%)

During his team with each team, his advanced stats were:

BUF (TOI = 514.4) - GAR 5.6 WAR 1 SPAR 1.9 GF/60 .151 xGF/60 .105 CF/60 2.96 xGA/60 -.063 CA/60 -2.17
MTL (TOI = 352.6) - GAR 1.4 WAR 0.3 SPAR 0.5 GF/60 .005 xGF/60 -.011 CF/60 -1.65 xGA/60 .026 CA/60 -.12
STL (TOI = 223) - GAR 2.3 WAR 0.4 SPAR 0.8 GF/60 .008 xGF/60 .039 CF/60 -.33 xGA/60 -.101 CA/60 -1.92

All those numbers point to his time with Buffalo, and specifically his time with Jokiharju, considering he spent nearly 83% of his time on ice with Buffalo playing with Jokiharju, as his clear most productive minutes of the 19-20 season.

It looks like he struggled in Montreal with mainly Jeff Petry as his defense partner (Petry played well), while he rebounded with the Blues, which makes sense as the Blues were a better team, although it looks like Colton Parayko did him no favors with the season he had.

Looking at the past few seasons for Scandella showed the following:

19-20: Huge rebound and was a positive in the key advanced metrics
18-19: Had a horrible season in every way
17-18: Weak to bad season in 4 of the 5 advanced metrics
16-17: Middling to weak season in all 5 advanced metrics
15-16: Solid defensively, but weak to middling offensively
14-15: The last season he had as strong as the 19-20 season

Based on all of the above, I have the following takeaways:

Where did the 19-20 season come from, as the last time he played that well was 6 seasons ago, when he was 24-25?

Was it almost entirely due to Henri Jokiharju's abilities helping Scandella regain his confidence?

The evidence actually points to Scandella potentially helping Jokiharju more then the other way around.

Overall, Scandella had a strong season, and his best in 5 years, but it seemed to come out of nowhere, and the idea that he will repeat it feels...doubtful, at the age of 30 going on 31 in the middle of next season.

Trading Scandella was the right move. Perhaps holding on to him longer and waiting until closer to the deadline would have been more prudent, and using the trade capital received for him to trade for Frolik, well, that was not good, clearly.

- kingcong39

Thanks 39, good stuff. So getting rid of him makes sense, but probably did it at the wrong time. And that Joker has potential to be a top 2 Dman with the right partner, definitely top 4
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

May 17 @ 4:00 PM ET
Thanks 39, good stuff. So getting rid of him makes sense, but probably did it at the wrong time. And that Joker has potential to be a top 2 Dman with the right partner, definitely top 4
- Buff36


I think he'll end up being a lot like Tallinder - and I mean that in a good way
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

May 17 @ 4:06 PM ET
I think he'll end up being a lot like Tallinder - and I mean that in a good way
- jcragcrumple

Well I will take that.
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

May 17 @ 4:20 PM ET
Well I will take that.
- Buff36


Yeah, me too. I think he'll be one of those guys who plays for 15 years, doesn't post spectacular numbers but is just consistently solid
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

May 17 @ 4:52 PM ET
why did we let this guy slip away and not sign him?


https://www.nbcsports.com...ent-forward-brandon-hagel

- homiedclown


Bc he’s not that good
Lifetime AHLer most likely
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

May 17 @ 4:54 PM ET
Got this in my inbox this morning. Had to share the wealth. You're welcome.


- BeadyEyedDouche


That Lockport bar you love to go to should be a perfect meetup spot for you fellas
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

May 17 @ 5:45 PM ET
Yeah, me too. I think he'll be one of those guys who plays for 15 years, doesn't post spectacular numbers but is just consistently solid
- jcragcrumple

Now we just have to find his Lydman
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

May 17 @ 6:47 PM ET
Now we just have to find his Lydman
- Buff36


Or how about a Lydman upgrade?
Dahlin-Jokiharju could work out nicely
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

May 17 @ 7:07 PM ET
Or how about a Lydman upgrade?
Dahlin-Jokiharju could work out nicely

- jdfitz77

I actually have that as my top pair on my Armchair GM team on Capfriendly. Think they will make a good pair in time.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

May 17 @ 7:23 PM ET
I actually have that as my top pair on my Armchair GM team on Capfriendly. Think they will make a good pair in time.
- Buff36


In time, perhaps, but I'm doubtful about next year.

I like the McCabe - Jokiharju pairing idea.

They both are strong defensively and Jokiharju can handle the breakout passes.
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

May 17 @ 7:35 PM ET
In time, perhaps, but I'm doubtful about next year.

I like the McCabe - Jokiharju pairing idea.

They both are strong defensively and Jokiharju can handle the breakout passes.

- kingcong39

That's not a bad idea, maybe Miller- Borgen as your 3rd pair. Still gotta find that partner for Dahlin
sabresfan69
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 06.26.2007

May 17 @ 8:13 PM ET
24 team playoff and Buffalo is 25

Ain't that always the way.
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