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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Ghofrani: Buffalo Sabres Draft Primer Part 2: Top 10 Draft Board For 1st Round Pick
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Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Unpopular opinion (i think): The best Die Hard movie is the 4th one- Live free or Die Hard -jdfitz7, NY
Joined: 10.07.2010

May 14 @ 6:31 PM ET
Should have added this originally:

"The league is looking at plans to centralize groups of teams in low-risk centres, with games being held in empty arenas, in hopes of resuming the 2019-20 campaign this summer."

By saying "resuming" the campaign, it tells me that they want to finish the regular season especially if they're prepared to not start next season until Nov or Dec.

- adambuffalo


Bettman quote from yesterday: "We can start in November. We can start in December. You're going to be a little flexible with the schedule, because we want to be able to bring the game back, both to conclude this season on some basis and to have a full regular season next year."

That seems to indicate not finishing the regular season.
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

May 14 @ 6:34 PM ET
Bettman quote from yesterday: "We can start in November. We can start in December. You're going to be a little flexible with the schedule, because we want to be able to bring the game back, both to conclude this season on some basis and to have a full regular season next year."

That seems to indicate not finishing the regular season.

- Wetbandit1


Rock, paper, scissors. Best out of 7
dadeadhead
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I don't want to say Greztky was a dude when I was watching. Mentalorgasm5 , NY
Joined: 07.16.2006

May 14 @ 6:39 PM ET
I think everything posted on here is irrelevant, so if you want we can blow full load and say 100%. If Hockeybuzz crashed/closed humanity would not miss a beat.

There is nothing significant posted on here.

Now, the process, the enjoyment, if you will, might score some points for significance to offset some peoples' boredom, enhance happiness so that could be relevant if you want to go there but the material which we were discussing has no relevance. If someone wants to make a counter-argument I'd love to hear it.

- GilPerreault11


Like Playboy magazines, I come here for the articles.
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Unpopular opinion (i think): The best Die Hard movie is the 4th one- Live free or Die Hard -jdfitz7, NY
Joined: 10.07.2010

May 14 @ 6:49 PM ET
Like Playboy magazines, I come here for the articles.
- dadeadhead


There are articles?
dadeadhead
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I don't want to say Greztky was a dude when I was watching. Mentalorgasm5 , NY
Joined: 07.16.2006

May 14 @ 6:49 PM ET
There are articles?
- Wetbandit1



Yes
Der Kaiser
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I Know Nothink ... NOTHINK!
Joined: 07.27.2007

May 14 @ 6:55 PM ET
There are articles?
- Wetbandit1


Every 8 or 9 days, we get a few numbers and abbreviations.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

May 14 @ 7:08 PM ET
The full detail regarding Reinhart's predicted next deal by Evolving Hockey, if it is with the Sabres:

Predicted: 8 @ $9M per

Break down by term:

1 @ $5.4M per
2 @ $6M per
3 @ $6.9M per
4 @ $6.8M per
5 @ $7M per
6 @ $7.4M per
7 @ $7.9M per
8 @ $9M per

Average: 5.4 @ $7.5M per

Also, here is what they have for Brandon Montour:

Predicted: 3 @ $4.9M per

Break down by term:

1 @ $3.9M per
2 @ $4M per
3 @ $4.9M per
4 @ $4.9M per
5 @ $5.7M per
6 @ $5.8M per
7 @ $5.6M per
8 @ $6.6M per

Average: 3.6 @ $4.9M per

- kingcong39



They assigned percentages of likely contract values for each Term projected, with the 8 year Term having the highest probability projection.
If you use their data, why wouldn't you also include such important info and weight the contract Term and Contract Value according to those percentages, rather than straight lining the average.

I think your "research" is rather incomplete here and potentially deceptive
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

May 14 @ 7:21 PM ET
botts and ralph are not safe for 2020-21

just sayin

- navinrjohnson


I always appreciate the info sir !
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

May 14 @ 7:24 PM ET
They assigned percentages of likely contract values for each Term projected, with the 8 year Term having the highest probability projection.
If you use their data, why wouldn't you also include such important info and weight the contract Term and Contract Value according to those percentages, rather than straight lining the average.

I think your "research" is rather incomplete here and potentially deceptive

- IonSabres


It’s all irrelevant
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

May 14 @ 7:24 PM ET
Every 8 or 9 days, we get a few numbers and abbreviations.
- Der Kaiser


Whats the XA/30?

(expected articles per 30 days)
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Unpopular opinion (i think): The best Die Hard movie is the 4th one- Live free or Die Hard -jdfitz7, NY
Joined: 10.07.2010

May 14 @ 7:25 PM ET
Every 8 or 9 days, we get a few numbers and abbreviations.
- Der Kaiser


Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

May 14 @ 7:26 PM ET
Every 8 or 9 days, we get a few numbers and abbreviations.
- Der Kaiser


The Athletic is worth the subscription.

Bleacher Report is pretty handy on the mobile app

Die By the Blade and Expected Buffalo are also good news outlets.

Just in case you need new articles to read between hockeybuzz articles.

IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

May 14 @ 7:30 PM ET
I always appreciate the info sir !
- Pegullaville


So, let me ask you a question, since you are rather astute with regard to draft prospects...

If Botts steps up to the Mic on draft night, and the following are on the board still, who do you take
Rossi
Drysdale
Holtz
Perfetti
Lundell

Assuming the following have been taken
Lafreniere
Byfield
Stutzle
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

May 14 @ 7:32 PM ET
So, let me ask you a question, since you are rather astute with regard to draft prospects...

If Botts steps up to the Mic on draft night, and the following are on the board still, who do you take
Rossi
Drysdale
Holtz
Perfetti
Lundell

Assuming the following have been taken
Lafreniere
Byfield
Stutzle

- IonSabres


Is Raymond off the table also at this point ? It would probably be Raymond, if he’s off the board I would take Rossi.
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

May 14 @ 7:41 PM ET
For those who are interested in watching prospect videos here are clips from this years WJC:

Lafreniere: https://youtu.be/ZzcKPOmkKAk

Raymond: https://youtu.be/188H_R1kVU

Stutzle: https://youtu.be/klux-JYobqw
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

May 14 @ 7:42 PM ET
They assigned percentages of likely contract values for each Term projected, with the 8 year Term having the highest probability projection.
If you use their data, why wouldn't you also include such important info and weight the contract Term and Contract Value according to those percentages, rather than straight lining the average.

I think your "research" is rather incomplete here and potentially deceptive

- IonSabres


Their average, which is what I used, is derived from weighing each year from 1 through 8 by a number of factors.

Why do you think the average for Reinhart was over 5 years and over 3 for Montour?

So, I used their average, which is arrived at by them by everything you described and much more.

Care to try again?
GilPerreault11
Buffalo Sabres
Location: IL
Joined: 07.21.2011

May 14 @ 7:44 PM ET
I always appreciate the info sir !
- Pegullaville


When was the last "rumor" that came true?

We can all throw crap at the wall and see if it sticks.

It's funny, I say he's full of crap and he throws the kitchen sink at us a couple of hours later. Interesting. 89 I think he has a source.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

May 14 @ 7:46 PM ET
They assigned percentages of likely contract values for each Term projected, with the 8 year Term having the highest probability projection.
If you use their data, why wouldn't you also include such important info and weight the contract Term and Contract Value according to those percentages, rather than straight lining the average.

I think your "research" is rather incomplete here and potentially deceptive

- IonSabres


I'll also add that they 'predict' 16 different contracts, based on whether the player signs with the team they are currently on or another team.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

May 14 @ 7:49 PM ET
Their average, which is what I used, is derived from weighing each year from 1 through 8 by a number of factors.

Why do you think the average for Reinhart was over 5 years and over 3 for Montour?

So, I used their average, which is arrived at by them by everything you described and much more.

Care to try again?

- kingcong39


Good excuse.
I dont subscribe, so I don't have all the figures in front of me.
However, Vogel (I think it was him) listed them...from what I remember, the likelihood was
25% for 8 years, hence why that it s their lead contract
The next most likely was 20 for 5 years I think?
The rest of 1, 2, 3, 4 , 6, 7 years shared about 55% .

Straightlining is not the preferred method.
But try again.
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

May 14 @ 7:49 PM ET
Some highlight clips of league/international play

Holtz: https://youtu.be/pa1VPFRcdW4

Rossi: https://youtu.be/wbSWJ0I77VE

Perfetti: https://youtu.be/y4NchWuHhj8

Byfield: https://youtu.be/YrNCooBZPAs

Lundell: https://youtu.be/c8zbS8LvBlQ

kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

May 14 @ 7:49 PM ET
Thats what I've been saying is the sweet spot for both sides. Gets him an eberle-type contract at 30 and keeps the AAV down. 5x7 all day

I don't like any of those Montour options. None of them. I would go 3 years, $3.5 per. Completely unrealistic? Yes, of course.

- jcragcrumple


The 5 years at $7M per predicted deal for Sam was the second most likely deal at 20% according to Evolving Hockey, compared to the 8 year deal predicted at 25%.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

May 14 @ 7:51 PM ET
Good excuse.
I dont subscribe, so I don't have all the figures in front of me.
However, Vogel (I think it was him) listed them...from what I remember, the likelihood was
25% for 8 years, hence why that it s their lead contract
The next most likely was 20 for 5 years I think?
The rest of 1, 2, 3, 4 , 6, 7 years shared about 55% .

Straightlining is not the preferred method.
But try again.

- IonSabres


It wasn't straight lined. The fact that you think that means your reading comprehension is as pathetic as your analysis.

I also paid the $5 fee to subscribe. Perhaps you should too?

Finally, I guess you think the other 55% was spread evenly? Wrong.
GilPerreault11
Buffalo Sabres
Location: IL
Joined: 07.21.2011

May 14 @ 7:54 PM ET
Some highlight clips of league/international play

Holtz: https://youtu.be/pa1VPFRcdW4

Rossi: https://youtu.be/wbSWJ0I77VE

Perfetti: https://youtu.be/y4NchWuHhj8

Byfield: https://youtu.be/YrNCooBZPAs

Lundell: https://youtu.be/c8zbS8LvBlQ

- Pegullaville


Are you trying to be relevant? We can get these on their original source, something we've called youtube for a while. Now, youtube is relevant for many reasons one being what you are doing here.
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

May 14 @ 7:55 PM ET
The 5 years at $7M per predicted deal for Sam was the second most likely deal at 20% according to Evolving Hockey, compared to the 8 year deal predicted at 25%.
- kingcong39


I like the 3 years at $6.9M
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

May 14 @ 7:56 PM ET
Are you trying to be relevant? We can get these on their original source, something we've called youtube for a while. Now, youtube is relevant for many reasons one being what you are doing here.
- GilPerreault11


He aggregated the highlights of 5 players for you. Why are you being a dingleberry about it?
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