How have you come up with this arbitrary line at 10 percent? You say the gap between the best player and the 100th best player is 4 times the gap between 100th best player and the worst player (some prove of this would be nice). If that's the case, then the 100th best player is nowhere near the elite level, and the elite tier should be much, much smaller than the 10% you say.

From the research I've done (using Evolving-hockeys WAR) the elite tier is more like the top 3 percent. Those are the players with way better WAR numbers than the rest.
I think you should show the numbers you're using in your argument or at least tell us where to find them.
- Skytte

WAR or GWAR / 60 , adjusted for minutes played.

Not that surprising considering how horrible your franchise was...is...and will be.

Chayka is a complete loser.

...from here on out all the movies are of top-ten quality.
- James_Tanner

That's not how numbers work

How have you come up with this arbitrary line at 10 percent? You say the gap between the best player and the 100th best player is 4 times the gap between 100th best player and the worst player (some prove of this would be nice). If that's the case, then the 100th best player is nowhere near the elite level, and the elite tier should be much, much smaller than the 10% you say.

From the research I've done (using Evolving-hockeys WAR) the elite tier is more like the top 3 percent. Those are the players with way better WAR numbers than the rest.
I think you should show the numbers you're using in your argument or at least tell us where to find them.
- Skytte

WAR is a horrendous stat. It's marginally better than +/-.

WAR or GWAR / 60 , adjusted for minutes played.
- James_Tanner

This doesn't really help me though. First of all I dont' know what GWAR is, and a Google search didn't answer me. Secondly, there's a lot of different WAR/game score models out there - I have made my own model, so there must be a lot. I just think it's relevant to know what model you're using.
I agree with you by the way, that the elite players have a much greater impact on the game than the rest. I just don't think there's 10% elite players. The data also tells me the worst players in the league have a huge negative impact.

WAR is a horrendous stat. It's marginally better than +/-.
- Wetbandit1

There's as many WAR models as there's statisticians, so it's not a simple counting stat like corsi or +/-.

Player analysis is difficult whether you use points, goals, corsi, +/-, WAR or the eye test, but with the proper context I think some WAR models are pretty good.
Looking at WAR at the team level is a great way to evaluate team performance though. If you're interested to know about my take on WAR, here's a good place to start: https://hockey-statistics...k-and-other-stupid-words/

He doesn't have a ton of offensive value, but that isn't the only way to be effective in the NHL. Given his generally good peripherals, I think if he could play second or third line role he might put up a top 10% WAR, it's not impossible.
- James_Tanner

He’s a decent middle 6 guy, I just don’t see the reason to claim something about him being in a top 10% of some category that doesn’t tell you the whole story.

You are perhaps the most annoying person in the world. You must be someone's alt cause this kind of terrible fox-news attempt to constantly gotcha people with word salad nonsense feels very, very familiar.

You can't honestly expect a real response to this insanity can you? Bu then again, you did say "mic drop" which is a real hard hitting way to win an argument with a moron, circa 2014, so I guess I'm defeated.
- James_Tanner

Here's what your missing though, James.
He isn't making an argument. He is throwing your own flawed argument back at you with evidence of why it was flawed.
This is the part where the only way to achieve any credibility is to admit to an error. Another thing you are not very good at doing.

WAR or GWAR / 60 , adjusted for minutes played.
- James_Tanner

Tooooooool

Baaaaaaaaaag

WAR is a horrendous stat. It's marginally better than +/-.
- Wetbandit1

Terrible take.

This doesn't really help me though. First of all I dont' know what GWAR is, and a Google search didn't answer me. Secondly, there's a lot of different WAR/game score models out there - I have made my own model, so there must be a lot. I just think it's relevant to know what model you're using.
I agree with you by the way, that the elite players have a much greater impact on the game than the rest. I just don't think there's 10% elite players. The data also tells me the worst players in the league have a huge negative impact.
- Skytte

I used the stats from corsica.hockey. The 10% number isn't arbitrary, because since all the major accepted stats give more or less the same results.

The top ten percent of players have a far wider range of results than the bottom 90%. There is literally no real difference - in a salary cap league - between the worst player in the NHL and most second liners.

Terrible take.
- James_Tanner

You're a

Tooooolllll

Baaaaaaaaaag

I used the stats from corsica.hockey. The 10% number isn't arbitrary, because since all the major accepted stats give more or less the same results.

The top ten percent of players have a far wider range of results than the bottom 90%. There is literally no real difference - in a salary cap league - between the worst player in the NHL and most second liners.
- James_Tanner

Dumbest statement ever!

There is literally no real difference - in a salary cap league - between the worst player in the NHL and most second liners.
- James_Tanner

Statements like this suggest you have more to learn here. So many teams got over the hump when they finally established better depth. Ovechkin finally won after guys like Oshie, Wilson, Eller, Connolly, Niskanen, Orlov solidified that depth. The Blues didn't win because of Tarasenko, O'Reilly, and Pietrangelo. It was superb play from 2nd liners like Perron, Bozak, Schenn, Jaybo. Would pay money to see you argue this with say Scotty Bowman. Recall that he's on record saying you don't win Cups unless your depth players outperform the opponent. He said Detroit would have zero Cups under him without the Grind Line.

Statements like this suggest you have more to learn here. So many teams got over the hump when they finally established better depth. Ovechkin finally won after guys like Oshie, Wilson, Eller, Connolly, Niskanen, Orlov solidified that depth. The Blues didn't win because of Tarasenko, O'Reilly, and Pietrangelo. It was superb play from 2nd liners like Perron, Bozak, Schenn, Jaybo. Would pay money to see you argue this with say Scotty Bowman. Recall that he's on record saying you don't win Cups unless your depth players outperform the opponent. He said Detroit would have zero Cups under him without the Grind Line.
- Kooleus

He continues to show everyone how clueless he is about hockey. .....and everything else, for that matter.

I used the stats from corsica.hockey. The 10% number isn't arbitrary, because since all the major accepted stats give more or less the same results.

The top ten percent of players have a far wider range of results than the bottom 90%. There is literally no real difference - in a salary cap league - between the worst player in the NHL and most second liners.
- James_Tanner

Speaking of terrible takes...

I used the stats from corsica.hockey. The 10% number isn't arbitrary, because since all the major accepted stats give more or less the same results.

The top ten percent of players have a far wider range of results than the bottom 90%. There is literally no real difference - in a salary cap league - between the worst player in the NHL and most second liners.
- James_Tanner

I can't really check if your numbers are right since Corsica doesn't exist anymore, and hasn't for a while.
I simply don't think the gap in the top 10% is 4 times the gap in the bottom 90%., since that's unlike any other WAR model I have looked at. I think you may have defined the worst NHL'ers to be replacement level, but the worst players are way worse than that.

Anyway, you're still misinterpreting the data. It's not the gap between the best player and a player at the 10% mark that's interesting. What is the gap between a top 8% player (elite according to you) and a top 12% player (non-elite)? That should be the question you're asking. I promise you there's a way larger gap in the top 4% than there is between 8% and 12%.

I can't really check if your numbers are right since Corsica doesn't exist anymore, and hasn't for a while.
I simply don't think the gap in the top 10% is 4 times the gap in the bottom 90%., since that's unlike any other WAR model I have looked at. I think you may have defined the worst NHL'ers to be replacement level, but the worst players are way worse than that.

Anyway, you're still misinterpreting the data. It's not the gap between the best player and a player at the 10% mark that's interesting. What is the gap between a top 8% player (elite according to you) and a top 12% player (non-elite)? That should be the question you're asking. I promise you there's a way larger gap in the top 4% than there is between 8% and 12%.
- Skytte

I mean Christoffer Ehn holds the pretty much the same value as Clayton Keller, right? 2nd liners are equal to 4th liners. #Tannerlytics

I mean Christopher Ehn holds the pretty much the same value as Clayton Keller, right? 2nd liners are equal to 4th liners. #Tannerlytics
- gergeswillems

Panarin is on 2nd line, So I guess he is equal to Brendan Smith

I mean Christoffer Ehn holds the pretty much the same value as Clayton Keller, right? 2nd liners are equal to 4th liners. #Tannerlytics
- gergeswillems

If they are both in the bottom 90%, then I think you're right.

Panarin is on 2nd line, So I guess he is equal to Brendan Smith
- rrentz

Yep. Why pay an elite goal scorer like Panarin BIG money when you can pay a 4th line plug league minimum? There's no difference. When the Pens beat the Wings to win the Cup in 2009 and Jordan Staal was their 3rd line center, he had absolutely nothing to do with it.

If they are both in the bottom 90%, then I think you're right.
- Skytte

So you agree with Tanner's Cup winning formula?

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So you agree with Tanner's Cup winning formula?

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- gergeswillems

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So you agree with Tanner's Cup winning formula?

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- gergeswillems

Isn't that San Jose's roster (except for the goalie maybe)?

Isn't that San Jose's roster (except for the goalie maybe)?
- Chunk

Pretty much. Martin Jones is being paid like a star.