Yeah, drafting well is important. What you're saying is that you're fine with the losing last year and this year because that's how you build a cup contender (cup contender if/when high picks play well on ELCs)

I have 2 problems with that:

It's a high risk strategy to be consistently awful and then plug these kids into roles above their pay grade, as we do over and over again.

And -

We have no idea if this GM can even draft well. Mittelstadt doesnt look great, and for as much as we like Cozens, it's still possible that Zegras or someone else should have been the pick.

The entire philosophy requires you to suck at everything for 364 days a year (we have that down) and then on draft day, get everything right.

I'd much rather try to be good 365 days a year by acquiring good players, and supplement that with the draft
- jcragcrumple

I agree with your sentiments here, yet the roster is so unbalanced creating many holes, coupled with the trade value depreciating on the few chips the Sabres have, it is going to be difficult to acquire these good players.

Burgeon. $6.875
Point. $6.750
Backstrom $6.700
Crosby $8.700
Schenn. $5.125
Barzal. $0.863
Scheifele $6.125
Johansen $8.000
Toews $10.500
Hertle $5.625

As I said, I stand by my work.
- IonSabres

Which is extremely well done, however if we adjusted those instead of using whole dollars but by percentage of cap space used when they signed the contract we may have a better picture.

I’m not discounting what you did, because I’m sure it took a lot of time and it was very well done I’m just saying those whole dollar values may be a little higher using relative numbers.

Like Crosby at $8.7 probably took up as much cap space at the time of signing as Eichel did at $10M now if not more.

Yeah, drafting well is important. What you're saying is that you're fine with the losing last year and this year because that's how you build a cup contender (cup contender if/when high picks play well on ELCs)

I have 2 problems with that:

It's a high risk strategy to be consistently awful and then plug these kids into roles above their pay grade, as we do over and over again.

And -

We have no idea if this GM can even draft well. Mittelstadt doesnt look great, and for as much as we like Cozens, it's still possible that Zegras or someone else should have been the pick.

The entire philosophy requires you to suck at everything for 364 days a year (we have that down) and then on draft day, get everything right.

I'd much rather try to be good 365 days a year by acquiring good players, and supplement that with the draft
- jcragcrumple

Which is fine, it’s just sucking increases the likelihood of getting an elite talent.

At the end of the day though it doesn’t matter where the pick was, the good teams hit on them and the bad teams don’t.

The LA Kings in two draft classes built a pipeline that Buffalo took 4 years to build.

I think Zegras is the better player today, and has a good chance of putting up higher offensive numbers, however I did have Cozens ranked 6th that year because he is the better 200 foot player and is in the mold of a Dubois or even ROR (the irony).

And this is why cap space is severely over rated. It’s misused 75% of the time.

Keep your good players (this includes Skinner) and draft well and you will contend.

I used to think the exact same way you did. But the good teams in this league operate very similarly. They keep the guys who are good.
- sbroads24

Sure, but the way this roster is currently constructed we are going to need optimal production from Center’s making few dollars.

It’s completely possible that Cozens, and whomever we select this year produce off the hop and provide tremendous value at ELC (which is the goal of tanking). However, that would be putting all of our eggs in one basket.

When they moved Marner to Matthews’ wing, Matthews scored at the best rate of his short career.

Tavares’ numbers, although still outstanding, took a step back playing with Nylander (who also happens to be having a great year)

Marner is an elite playmaker.
- Pegullaville

Not taking anything away from a talent like marner...that said, I'd like to see what he could do with the likes of mojo, mitts and angry larry at center instead of two of the best in league

Pach...
The Roster Cap figure, did it account for $6.9m in costs that reduce the Available Cap...
2019-2020 Bonus Rolliver if $3m
2020-2021 Bonus if $3.0m
Buyout of $0.9m
- IonSabres

Nah. I went with the figure as is because we don't know what those numbers will ultimately be and, whether there will be a compliance buy out (see okposo)

Which is extremely well done, however if we adjusted those instead of using whole dollars but by percentage of cap space used when they signed the contract we may have a better picture.

I’m not discounting what you did, because I’m sure it took a lot of time and it was very well done I’m just saying those whole dollar values may be a little higher using relative numbers.

Like Crosby at $8.7 probably took up as much cap space at the time of signing as Eichel did at $10M now if not more.
- Pegullaville

I get what you are saying, no doubt. I considered it, but the math would not have worked out as each position would have been inflated...to say 115% of the Cap.

As it is, the total % works out great.
There will be puts and takes when using it as a blueprint to guide one going forward.
But overall, those % and $ numbers roll up to $74m, which should be close to the target for the upcoming season.
So, if you are over in 1 or 2 spots...no biggie, but it has to be made-up else where.
My point is that the Sabres will need to give adequate consideration to the impact of
- bringing back guys like Vesey, Girgs, Larsson
- keeping Risto, Mojo
- giving new contracts to Rhino, Montour, Kahun

If they are already over the positional average at 1RW, 1C, 3LW, 4RW, 2RhD (counting both Risto & Montour), 3RhD (counting Miller & Joker) and 2G...
Decision time forth coming

I get what you are saying, no doubt. I considered it, but the math would not have worked out as each position would have been inflated...to say 115% of the Cap.

As it is, the total % works out great.
There will be puts and takes when using it as a blueprint to guide one going forward.
But overall, those % and $ numbers roll up to $74m, which should be close to the target for the upcoming season.
So, if you are over in 1 or 2 spots...no biggie, but it has to be made-up else where.
My point is that the Sabres will need to give adequate consideration to the impact of
- bringing back guys like Vesey, Girgs, Larsson
- keeping Risto, Mojo
- giving new contracts to Rhino, Montour, Kahun

If they are already over the positional average at 1RW, 1C, 3LW, 4RW, 2RhD (counting both Risto & Montour), 3RhD (counting Miller & Joker) and 2G...
Decision time forth coming
- IonSabres

I agree

Nah. I went with the figure as is because we don't know what those numbers will ultimately be and, whether there will be a compliance buy out (see okposo)
- Michael Pachla

Thanks, just curious.

The guy they paid $10M too didn’t stop enough pucks.
- Pegullaville

Not saying that Bob was stellar this year. But that's an oversimplified explanation for FL's inconsistency. Of all stats, goalie stats have to be taken with the biggest grain of salt, imo. Bob was hung out to dry with frequency. FL would win games 5-4 that, without Bob, they would've lost 8-5.

I found this line interesting:

It’s not the exciting blockbuster it could have been a year or two ago, but this is probably the best the Sabres will be able to do now in a trade for Ristolainen.

I took a beating last June and July when I was pushing hard for Botts to trade Risto, saying he placed too high of a value on him then...and warned that his value was declining. I was roundly ridiculed by Risto-lovers suggesting his trade value was going down.
Guess what, IMO it continues to decline.

P.Kane produces with everyone, Anisimov and Dave freaking Bolland were 2 centers he played the most with.

Panarin had Anisimov, Dubois (who is a solid player but was not a premier point producer), and Zibanijad (also a very good player but wouldn’t get 40 goals without playing with a Hart trophy candidate)

Kadri and Tavares had their best years statistically wise with Marner. Coincidence ? I think not.

Taylor Hall won a Hart trophy had had 40 more points then the next closest player on the team.

Tarasenko scored 30 goals a year consistently with the likes of Backes and Berglund

Gaudreau took a step back this year but even his worst year would be Skinner’s best statistical year.

Those are wingers that are worth their bacon.

Now out of all the wingers that do have an Elite Center ? I take Kucherov, Ovechkin, Marchand, Pasternak, Rantenen, Stone, Huberdeau, Tkachuk, Connor, Wheeler, Giroux.

Skinner isn’t a top 25 winger in the NHL, even with Eichel.

Now we are going to have 50% of our cap tied up into the wing position which is like having a car without an engine, and we wonder why we still suck.

I’ll tell you, because we don’t have a goalie, our best d-men are still improving and the corps as a whole isn’t rounded out, and we don’t have depth down the middle.
- Pegullaville

That's a pretty good analysis.

I found this line interesting:

It’s not the exciting blockbuster it could have been a year or two ago, but this is probably the best the Sabres will be able to do now in a trade for Ristolainen.

I took a beating last June and July when I was pushing hard for Botts to trade Risto, saying he placed too high of a value on him then...and warned that his value was declining. I was roundly ridiculed by Risto-lovers suggesting his trade value was going down.
Guess what, IMO it continues to decline.
- IonSabres

And the bad thing he just probably had his best sesaon.

Thanks, just curious.
- IonSabres

A compliance buyout of Okposo would fix alot.

Florida is trying to lower their internal cap, so why would they trade for Risto when they have Ekblad and Strålman playing RD at $7.5m and $5.5m respectively.
- adambuffalo

Idk if there's any truth to that rumor that originated from a Toronto reporter (shortly before a big game between Panthers and Leafs). FL is fully paying all of their employees through the shutdown. I could see their cap going down just through letting Hoffman or Dadanov walk and replacing them with Tippett or Denisenko ELC.
But, having said all that, you're right about why they wouldn't want Risto, not to mention they are also paying Yandle and Matheson big dollars. That, and they have enough defenseman that struggle actually playing defense.

Got the numbers from CapCentral, and then used Cap Centrals Fantasy Tools-Depth Chart to map players into lines.
If it showed Palyer X as 2C rather than 1C then that could happen but the overall numbers would be correct. For it to be off as much as you guess, that would have happened several times. Possible I guess, but I'll stand by the overall work effort.
- IonSabres

Did you use current cap hit or percent of the cap at the time each deal was signed for your numbers?

Which is extremely well done, however if we adjusted those instead of using whole dollars but by percentage of cap space used when they signed the contract we may have a better picture.

I’m not discounting what you did, because I’m sure it took a lot of time and it was very well done I’m just saying those whole dollar values may be a little higher using relative numbers.

Like Crosby at $8.7 probably took up as much cap space at the time of signing as Eichel did at $10M now if not more.
- Pegullaville

Bingo!

When Boston signed Bergeron to his current deal, it was 10.69% of the cap at the time the deal was signed.

Crosby? A whopping 14.5% of the cap at the time it was signed.

More work needs to be done to attempt to do what Ion was trying to do.

Sure, but the way this roster is currently constructed we are going to need optimal production from Center’s making few dollars.

It’s completely possible that Cozens, and whomever we select this year produce off the hop and provide tremendous value at ELC (which is the goal of tanking). However, that would be putting all of our eggs in one basket.
- Pegullaville

As the years go on, plenty of different types of teams are winning the cup.

There’s more than one way to contend.

The Sabres just need a competent 2/3C while Cozens develops

In no way shape or form does Skinner prevent them from getting one

A compliance buyout of Okposo would fix alot.
- Michael Pachla

Yes it would.
As much as I would love that, I wonder if there will be some good opportunities to acquire a few good men iv teams like the Leafs, Bolts and others are forced even harder to trade a good player or 2....like Kappanen or Nylander

As the years go on, plenty of different types of teams are winning the cup.

There’s more than one way to contend.

The Sabres just need a competent 2/3C while Cozens develops

In no way shape or form does Skinner prevent them from getting one
- sbroads24

For now ***

Bingo!

When Boston signed Bergeron to his current deal, it was 10.69% of the cap at the time the deal was signed.

Crosby? A whopping 14.5% of the cap at the time it was signed.

More work needs to be done to attempt to do what Ion was trying to do.
- kingcong39

I'd be all for someone taking a swing at it
I think that could be pulled from Cap Friendly.

Here's what the analysis of those 10 teams showed:
Forwards:
.............LW.......................C......................RW
Line 1.. 6.9% ($5.7m)... 8.0% ($6.5m)... 6.5% ($5.3m)

- IonSabres

I used the actual cap hit at the time each contract was signed instead of salary, and I used some logical decisions as well, such as using Tarasenko as the number 1 RW for the Blues despite what the depth chart says, as he was out for the majority of the season.

I also excluded one salary of the 30, as Matt Barzal is about to get a large pay increase, and his 1.3% ELC cap hit very much skewed the numbers.

Here's what I got:

Line 1 LW - 9.14% of the cap, $7.45M cap hit
Line 1 C - 10.87% of the cap, $8.86M cap hit
Line 1 RW - 8.22% of the cap, $6.69M cap hit

How do the Sabres top 3 of Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart fit in there?

11.32% ($9M cap hit), 13.33% ($10M cap hit), 8.68% ($7M cap hit, estimated)

Yes they are over, but not by as much as your numbers are showing.

I'd be all for someone taking a swing at it
I think that could be pulled from Cap Friendly.
- IonSabres

Done for Line 1. See above.

To Buffalo
Andersen
Bracco
Johnsson



To Toronto
2020 1st
Samuelsson
Miller



Toronto takes Askarov with Buffalo’s 1st and the additional cap space is used to entertain Holtby, at the very least Lehner or Greiss until Askarov is NHL ready.
Miller helps the defense and Samuelsson adds a physical element in the system.
Buffalo gets a for sure #1 goalie and also additional help on the wing with Johnsson. Bracco could parlay this opportunity into a career in Buffalo.
Michael Granlund could be a great fit as a second line C in Buffalo.

I used the actual cap hit at the time each contract was signed instead of salary, and I used some logical decisions as well, such as using Tarasenko as the number 1 RW for the Blues despite what the depth chart says, as he was out for the majority of the season.

I also excluded one salary of the 30, as Matt Barzal is about to get a large pay increase, and his 1.3% ELC cap hit very much skewed the numbers.

Here's what I got:

Line 1 LW - 9.14% of the cap, $7.45M cap hit
Line 1 C - 10.87% of the cap, $8.86M cap hit
Line 1 RW - 8.22% of the cap, $6.69M cap hit

How do the Sabres top 3 of Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart fit in there?

11.32% ($9M cap hit), 13.33% ($10M cap hit), 8.68% ($7M cap hit, estimated)

Yes they are over, but not by as much as your numbers are showing.
- kingcong39

Good post.