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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Fletcher, Sanheim, TIFH
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JW98FlyerFan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.02.2013

Mar 30 @ 3:37 PM ET
I chose TJ simply because he is here, experienced and you did not like Friedman as the #7. Nvm him.

Lets take a look at the others for replacing Braun or Ghost.


Player ATOI +/- Relative Fenwick Points/g (this season)
Del Zotto 18:43 5 -1.8 0.32 (49g)
Sbisa 17:56 1 -1.8 0.22 (44 g)

Justin Braun 17:16 -2 -1.7 0.3 (62g)
Ghost 18:18 -4 0.7 0.28 (42g).

Likely salary for Braun: 3 m+
Ghost 4.5 m
Del Zotto (as #7) ~ 1.5 m
Sbisa: ~ 0.9 million

Sorry, you were saying something?

- PT21


I am pretty sure Brennan was traded just before the TDL...I might be wrong, but thought he went.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Mar 30 @ 3:40 PM ET
I am pretty sure Brennan was traded just before the TDL...I might be wrong, but thought he went.
- JW98FlyerFan


Yes, Brennan was traded at the deadline. Had been a healthy scratch for several months and was no longer practicing or traveling with the team.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Mar 30 @ 3:52 PM ET
I am pretty sure Brennan was traded just before the TDL...I might be wrong, but thought he went.
- JW98FlyerFan



My bad. Forget TJ. Missed the trade.
opeth_pa
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Implication
Joined: 12.13.2011

Mar 30 @ 3:59 PM ET
Why would anyone consider Jake for a buyout over JVR ?
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Mar 30 @ 4:02 PM ET
Yes, Brennan was traded at the deadline. Had been a healthy scratch for several months and was no longer practicing or traveling with the team.
- bmeltzer



Bill, final word on this from you? Who do you get rid off with a short run goal of a deep run?

JVR, after his first season has scored 15 goals in 38 games (32 goal pace) in playoffs. He is however also -11.

Ghost - however has 3 points in 12 games and -8 in playoffs.

I also get the distinct feeling that he is not a Vigneault fave. His style of playing might also lead him to being targeted in the playoff (but he is likely to be a #7 anyway).

Easy answer would be JVR, but I wonder.
Wingdestroyer
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 02.27.2020

Mar 30 @ 4:36 PM ET
Why would anyone consider Jake for a buyout over JVR ?
- opeth_pa


did anyone say that? if so i lost it in some of the weird back and forth going on.

Wingdestroyer
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 02.27.2020

Mar 30 @ 4:39 PM ET
Bill, final word on this from you? Who do you get rid off with a short run goal of a deep run?

JVR, after his first season has scored 15 goals in 38 games (32 goal pace) in playoffs. He is however also -11.

Ghost - however has 3 points in 12 games and -8 in playoffs.

I also get the distinct feeling that he is not a Vigneault fave. His style of playing might also lead him to being targeted in the playoff (but he is likely to be a #7 anyway).

Easy answer would be JVR, but I wonder.

- PT21


the Ghost that played our last 2019-2020 game (so far) brings more to the table for the Flyers than a JVR for next season as compared to his in house replacements, IMO. he stays in the lineup until this very day if the "pause" didn't happen, bumping Hagg to #7.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Mar 30 @ 4:59 PM ET
I chose TJ simply because he is here, experienced and you did not like Friedman as the #7. Nvm him.

Lets take a look at the others for replacing Braun or Ghost.


Player ATOI +/- Relative Fenwick Points/g (this season)
Del Zotto 18:43 5 -1.8 0.32 (49g)
Sbisa 17:56 1 -1.8 0.22 (44 g)

Justin Braun 17:16 -2 -1.7 0.3 (62g)
Ghost 18:18 -4 0.7 0.28 (42g).

Likely salary for Braun: 3 m+
Ghost 4.5 m
Del Zotto (as #7) ~ 1.5 m
Sbisa: ~ 0.9 million

Sorry, you were saying something?

- PT21


Brennan is not here. He was traded because the Flyers were very unhappy with him and he was never a candidate for a regular spot on the Flyers. Seems as though you were uninformed there.

There is a reason why Del Zotto and Sbisa could only earn the deals they have. Another in a long line of posters with no idea how to use analytics. Just like I explained to you in how Haag or Friedman should not be placed in the role that Braun has been in, neither should Sbisa or Del Zotto at this point. If they were, then what would their numbers look like?
Gostisbehere is a puck moving defenseman who has played at a much higher level than both Del Zotto and Sbisa. He also has the ability to QB the PP.
So based on what you posted here, would you be okay on trading Gostisbehere for one of Del Zotto or Sbisa. If not why? You seem to be cherry picking stats in an attempt to say they're equal to him. If you won't, then you have some explaining to do.

You finish with "sorry, were you saying something" as if you think you actually proved anything. Should I expect an analogy or other comments not having anything to do with hockey? Maybe boats this time? I think what you've proved is that you're misguided on a number of things.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Mar 30 @ 5:01 PM ET
the Ghost that played our last 2019-2020 game (so far) brings more to the table for the Flyers than a JVR for next season as compared to his in house replacements, IMO. he stays in the lineup until this very day if the "pause" didn't happen, bumping Hagg to #7.
- Wingdestroyer


The coaching staff was happy with Gostisbehere's play before his injury.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Mar 30 @ 5:07 PM ET


I also get the distinct feeling that he is not a Vigneault fave. His style of playing might also lead him to being targeted in the playoff (but he is likely to be a #7 anyway).

- PT21



On what basis are you making this statement? At the time of his injury, Vigneault was happy with his play.

https://www.nbcsports.com...njury-could-impact-flyers

"He was way more confident with the puck, he was doing what you want a defenseman of his type to do, which is beat the forecheck, jump up in the play when the opportunity is there," Vigneault said before Wednesday night's game at the Wells Fargo Center. "He was playing good hockey for us. I don't know exactly how long this is going to be but he's not playing tonight."
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Mar 30 @ 5:19 PM ET
the Ghost that played our last 2019-2020 game (so far) brings more to the table for the Flyers than a JVR for next season as compared to his in house replacements, IMO. he stays in the lineup until this very day if the "pause" didn't happen, bumping Hagg to #7.
- Wingdestroyer



Ghost looked good in that game, sure.

But Ghost was:
benched for a few games early in the season
played in the 3rd line after that (but played decent after that, sure).
He played with Hagg, and Hagg's play took off with Braun.
After he became healthy, in spite of his good play before injury, he was a healthy scratch and the only reason he was in the lineup was because Myers broke his hand
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Mar 30 @ 5:23 PM ET
Brennan is not here. He was traded because the Flyers were very unhappy with him and he was never a candidate for a regular spot on the Flyers. Seems as though you were uninformed there.

There is a reason why Del Zotto and Sbisa could only earn the deals they have. Another in a long line of posters with no idea how to use analytics. Just like I explained to you in how Haag or Friedman should not be placed in the role that Braun has been in, neither should Sbisa or Del Zotto at this point. If they were, then what would their numbers look like?
Gostisbehere is a puck moving defenseman who has played at a much higher level than both Del Zotto and Sbisa. He also has the ability to QB the PP.
So based on what you posted here, would you be okay on trading Gostisbehere for one of Del Zotto or Sbisa. If not why? You seem to be cherry picking stats in an attempt to say they're equal to him. If you won't, then you have some explaining to do.

You finish with "sorry, were you saying something" as if you think you actually proved anything. Should I expect an analogy or other comments not having anything to do with hockey? Maybe boats this time? I think what you've proved is that you're misguided on a number of things.

- MJL


I see you have lost track already. You dd say you cant remember squat nowadays..

Let me remind of what the discussion is:

1. Ghost as a #7 D for a playoff run this year/next both. I am looking purely to answer the question: who maximizes our chances to go all the way?

versus:

Sbisa/Del Zotto as the #7 D.


MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Mar 30 @ 5:24 PM ET
Ghost looked good in that game, sure.

But Ghost was:
benched for a few games early in the season
played in the 3rd line after that (but played decent after that, sure).
He played with Hagg, and Hagg's play took off with Braun.
After he became healthy, in spite of his good play before injury, he was a healthy scratch and the only reason he was in the lineup was because Myers broke his hand

- PT21



They rushed Gostisbehere back into the lineup and Vigneault admitted that was a mistake. That he wasn't ready. wasn't back in game shape. When he is healthy, Gostisbehere is undoubtedly one of the top 6 defenseman on the team.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Mar 30 @ 5:27 PM ET
Haag and Braun are not comparable. They play in different roles and situations. Haag is an RFA. Braun has UFA leverage. Haag is not going to get 3.5M. I do agree that he will get more. I'm thinking 2M AAV
- MJL

FWIW, future contracts as I see em:
Hagg, 2 years at 2 million per
NoPa, 1 year at 1 million, need to see that he can actually play before he gets a multi year deal.

Lindblom, the minimum you need to qualify him

Grant I’d try to re-sign but for no more than a 2 million aav

Re back up goalie: the best I can get for no more than 2.5 million

NAK: 2 years at 1.1 million per or 3 years at 1.5 million per. I think he’s a very good 4th line player who can, for a limited time, step up into the middle 6 now and then.

Myers: I want to lock him up now while you can do it without going crazy. Maybe something like 25 million over 6 years, aav of 4.167 million. It’s high now, but I truly it will be a steal by years 3-6.

Finally, if there is a free buyout, it needs to be JVR.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Mar 30 @ 5:28 PM ET
I see you have lost track already. You dd say you cant remember squat nowadays..

Let me remind of what the discussion is:

1. Ghost as a #7 D for a playoff run this year/next both. I am looking purely to answer the question: who maximizes our chances to go all the way?

versus:

Sbisa/Del Zotto as the #7 D.

- PT21



This is a really bad assumption on your part. This just reinforces what I already know if you think one of Zbisa or Del Zotto is a better choice for defensive depth over Gostisbehere

I'm amazed that you're trying to tell me what the discussion is when one, you have it wrong, and secondly, I started it. The discussion is what player on the Flyers would you buy out. I chose JVR. You chose Gostisbehere with the mistaken idea that forward depth was more important than defensive depth.

You continually get it wrong.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Mar 30 @ 5:28 PM ET
FWIW, future contracts as I see em:
Hagg, 2 years at 2 million per
NoPa, 1 year at 1 million, need to see that he can actually play before he gets a multi year deal.

Lindblom, the minimum you need to qualify him

Grant I’d try to re-sign but for no more than a 2 million aav

Re back up goalie: the best I can get for no more than 2.5 million

NAK: 2 years at 1.1 million per or 3 years at 1.5 million per. I think he’s a very good 4th line player who can, for a limited time, step up into the middle 6 now and then.

Myers: I want to lock him up now while you can do it without going crazy. Maybe something like 25 million over 6 years, aav of 4.167 million. It’s high now, but I truly it will be a steal by years 3-6.

Finally, if there is a free buyout, it needs to be JVR.

- BiggE


Pretty much on the same page.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Mar 30 @ 5:30 PM ET
On what basis are you making this statement? At the time of his injury, Vigneault was happy with his play.

https://www.nbcsports.com...njury-could-impact-flyers

"He was way more confident with the puck, he was doing what you want a defenseman of his type to do, which is beat the forecheck, jump up in the play when the opportunity is there," Vigneault said before Wednesday night's game at the Wells Fargo Center. "He was playing good hockey for us. I don't know exactly how long this is going to be but he's not playing tonight."

- MJL



Subjective vibes. The earlier healthy scratch. The healthy scratch after he was ok lmid-late Feb. The trade rumors. Not just the words Vigneault says, but the way he says them. Can't prove it.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Mar 30 @ 5:32 PM ET
Pretty much on the same page.
- MJL


No, you offered Myers 1.4 because he does not have leverage.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Mar 30 @ 5:33 PM ET
Subjective vibes. The earlier healthy scratch. The healthy scratch after he was ok lmid-late Feb. The trade rumors. Not just the words Vigneault says, but the way he says them. Can't prove it.
- PT21



There is nothing subjective about it. It was pretty straight forward. Also anyone who knows what they are looking at, also saw it in Gostisbehere's play before his injury. You're making stuff up again. The trade rumors proved to be false.

MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Mar 30 @ 5:35 PM ET
No, you offered Myers 1.4 because he does not have leverage.
- PT21


PRETTY MUCH!

Yes I did. However I'm also okay if they gamble and offer him a longer deal with a higher salary earlier in the hopes of saving later. I also addressed that in other posts.

What else do you have?
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Mar 30 @ 5:38 PM ET
This is a really bad assumption on your part. This just reinforces what I already know if you think one of Zbisa or Del Zotto is a better choice for defensive depth over Gostisbehere

I'm amazed that you're trying to tell me what the discussion is when one, you have it wrong, and secondly, I started it. The discussion is what player on the Flyers would you buy out. I chose JVR. You chose Gostisbehere with the mistaken idea that forward depth was more important than defensive depth.

You continually get it wrong.

- MJL


Oh dear. You have lost the line of discussion yet again.

No, I think of Sbisa and Del Zotto as a far worse defensive depth than Ghost. I think that is the better move towards a deep playoff run in terms of saving salary when compared to shedding JVR.



MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Mar 30 @ 5:52 PM ET
Oh dear. You have lost the line of discussion yet again.

No, I think of Sbisa and Del Zotto as a far worse defensive depth than Ghost. I think that is the better move towards a deep playoff run in terms of saving salary when compared to shedding JVR.

- PT21


LOL. I haven't lost anything. If you think they're not as good then why would you choose them over Gostisbehere?

I'll explain some things. Look at the roster and potential players that could be on the team next year. The Flyers have Frost and Farabee as well as a few others with potential to push for a spot. Who do they have on defense? Friedman? Not comparable

Probably most importantly for a playoff run, it is more important to have defense depth than forward depth. Which is why the trade rumors you mentioned were nonsense.

Thirdly, Gostisehere is a good trade chip so from that perspective, it makes no sense to buy him out when you could get value for him in a trade.

Based on all of that, JVR is the obvious choice for a buyout.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Mar 30 @ 6:06 PM ET
LOL. I haven't lost anything. If you think they're not as good then why would you choose them over Gostisbehere?

I'll explain some things. Look at the roster and potential players that could be on the team next year. The Flyers have Frost and Farabee as well as a few others with potential to push for a spot. Who do they have on defense? Friedman? Not comparable

Probably most importantly for a playoff run, it is more important to have defense depth than forward depth. Which is why the trade rumors you mentioned were nonsense.

Thirdly, Gostisehere is a good trade chip so from that perspective, it makes no sense to buy him out when you could get value for him in a trade.

Based on all of that, JVR is the obvious choice for a buyout.

- MJL


1. Because of the salary savings that must result.

2. In the world I was proposing, we have low priced serviceable depth as reserve D.

3. I will grant you that.

I will again emphasize that my metric was purely from maximizing cup chances in the very near future. Some people were saying how our D broke down in playoff years. Do you remember the multiple series when the ballyhooed forward depth underachieved?

Remember the Ottawa series? The Buffalo series (when our young phenoms Richie, Carter, Umberger) who averaged around 20 goals apiece that season if I remember correctly) vanished? The NJ series, when the same team that was scoring gazzilion goals against Pittsburgh could barely score? The two crucial games against the Pens in 2018 at home when they scored 1 goal across both?

It gets much harder to score during playoffs. JVR is no Patrick kane. But I doubt he is replaced by Farabee/Frost in the playoffs this year or next.
Letterkenney
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dementia Patient in the White House, DC, PA
Joined: 03.20.2020

Mar 30 @ 6:12 PM ET
If they ever do restart this season, and God willing they will, the Flyers (and all NHL teams) should have a mask promo for fans in attendance. Put a Flyers logo on front and have Toyota (or someone else) sponsor it. Give one to everyone in attendance and ask that they wear it to mitigate any potential spread.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Mar 30 @ 6:19 PM ET
1. Because of the salary savings that must result.

2. In the world I was proposing, we have low priced serviceable depth as reserve D.

3. I will grant you that.

I will again emphasize that my metric was purely from maximizing cup chances in the very near future. Some people were saying how our D broke down in playoff years. Do you remember the multiple series when the ballyhooed forward depth underachieved?

Remember the Ottawa series? The Buffalo series (when our young phenoms Richie, Carter, Umberger) who averaged around 20 goals apiece that season if I remember correctly) vanished? The NJ series, when the same team that was scoring gazzilion goals against Pittsburgh could barely score? The two crucial games against the Pens in 2018 at home when they scored 1 goal across both?

It gets much harder to score during playoffs. JVR is no Patrick kane. But I doubt he is replaced by Farabee/Frost in the playoffs this year or next.

- PT21


The savings difference is not enough to justify it. In a playoff run you don't want serviceable depth at defense. Gostisbehere is capable of playing a top 4 puck moving role and high minutes. He is far more capable of replacing a top defenseman is than a serviceable depth defenseman.

The debate is not that forward and scoring depth is not important which is what you're trying to establish here. That is not being said. It's about making a choice which is what is being done. If a choice has to be made, defense depth is more important. Then adding in all the other variables which I mentioned previously, the choice becomes obvious.

The only caveat to this which I haven't thought about is expansion draft ramifications.
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