Man looking at everything right now, Laine had a monster year
- robz228

Agreed, added some playmaking and appears a bit of defense to his game too.

I’m not saying it’s “bad”. I’m saying it’s not value.

He’s not a very good player. He’s a shooter who can’t score off the PP.

I’m pretty confident at 5 mil that’s not valuable
- sbroads24

Again, after a slow start while transitioning to the NHL, he picked up tremendously at EV. 1 EV goal in the first 22 games and 8 since then. After the first 22 games he is scoring .25 goals per game and around 15% shooting percentage even strength.
He is also more than just a shooter having as many EV assists this year that Skinner has had in the last three seasons combined.
A one year bridge is fine, but I would rather lock him up on a deal similar to Tuch's 7yr $4.75m. Otherwise you could be looking at $7m + if he continues to play like he has the second half of the season.
Between EV and PP goals, he will be a 30-40 goal scorer.

Sure? No. But I’d like to find out before basically handing him a top 6 contract long term
- sbroads24

For me, he plays and scores with pace. When they dropped him down and made a line with Johansson centering him and Kahun, they looked good and he didn't look like he missed a beat. That said you're apprehension is warranted.

Agreed, added some playmaking and appears a bit of defense to his game too.
- Michael Ghofrani

Hellebuyck having an MVP season helped too though

Hellebuyck having an MVP season helped too though
- robz228

oh no doubt but it looks like at some point he picked up his play in his own end. You wouldn't put him out there to defend a lead or anything but looks like less of a liability.

Again, after a slow start while transitioning to the NHL, he picked up tremendously at EV. 1 EV goal in the first 22 games and 8 since then. After the first 22 games he is scoring .25 goals per game and around 15% shooting percentage even strength.
He is also more than just a shooter having as many EV assists this year that Skinner has had in the last three seasons combined.
A one year bridge is fine, but I would rather lock him up on a deal similar to Tuch's 7yr $4.75m. Otherwise you could be looking at $7m + if he continues to play like he has the second half of the season.
Between EV and PP goals, he will be a 30-40 goal scorer.
- adambuffalo

2 year bridge at $3.5 followed by $7m+

Or

To borrow a phrase from the pandemic, we flatten the curve and pay him $5 for a while

Ultimately what it comes down to. Idk, if he was shooting 8% playing with mojo and vesey, that'd be one thing. But Eichel and Reinhart put guys in positions to inflate their sh%.

Im not saying it can't go up, but given his age, skillset and who he played with, im not totally comfortable banking on it with a long term deal. But I'll happily write the im an idiot blog if im wrong.
- Michael Ghofrani

Again, take away the first 22 games where his shooting percent was at 2% even strength and he's been at about 15% the rest of the year.

Perhaps Jersey should just trade Hughes because he only has 3 ev goals and is shooting 5.7%.
Taylor Hall has 3 more EV goals and shooting at 6.9%. How much will he make this summer?

Again, take away the first 22 games where his shooting percent was at 2% even strength and he's been at about 15% the rest of the year.

Perhaps Jersey should just trade Hughes because he only has 3 ev goals and is shooting 5.7%.
Taylor Hall has 3 more EV goals and shooting at 6.9%. How much will he make this summer?
- adambuffalo

This is almost half of his season. Hughes struggled, he also makes nothing on the cap for 2 more seasons and is what 5 years younger than olofsson?

Taylor Hall has a strong history of success, Olofsson has 54 games, 22 of which you wanted to write off.

Again, take away the first 22 games where his shooting percent was at 2% even strength and he's been at about 15% the rest of the year.

Perhaps Jersey should just trade Hughes because he only has 3 ev goals and is shooting 5.7%.
Taylor Hall has 3 more EV goals and shooting at 6.9%. How much will he make this summer?
- adambuffalo

What about the last 15-ish games where Eichel was obviously not 100% and Olofsson and Reinhart did absolutely nothing?

Or are we just counting the 20 games after the first 22 and before the last 15?

Again, take away the first 22 games where his shooting percent was at 2% even strength and he's been at about 15% the rest of the year.

Perhaps Jersey should just trade Hughes because he only has 3 ev goals and is shooting 5.7%.
Taylor Hall has 3 more EV goals and shooting at 6.9%. How much will he make this summer?
- adambuffalo

Good post.
IMO he's a 25/25/50 player.
5 yrs, $4.95m per.

Good post.
IMO he's a 25/25/50 player.
5 yrs, $4.95m per.
- IonSabres

He would have hit that mark this year.

I'm not going to assume that his high water mark is his rookie year. He could easily be a 30 or even 40 goal scorer in this league

He would have hit that mark this year.

I'm not going to assume that his high water mark is his rookie year. He could easily be a 30 or even 40 goal scorer in this league
- jcragcrumple

which would be the reasoning for going long term.

1 year is probably the best bet so if he has a nice year you can still get him long term not outrageous

if you sign him for 3 years and he scores 25-25-30, hes going to get like 7 million or something and then we're (frank)ed again

He would have hit that mark this year.

I'm not going to assume that his high water mark is his rookie year. He could easily be a 30 or even 40 goal scorer in this league
- jcragcrumple

Based on what evidence though?

The main reason players would get “better” at age 24 would be increased opportunity or better linemates. He’s at that pinnacle.

What on earth have we seen that says 40 goals?

Based on what evidence though?

The main reason players would get “better” at age 24 would be increased opportunity or better linemates. He’s at that pinnacle.

What on earth have we seen that says 40 goals?
- sbroads24

Panarin came at 24 and just keeps getting better. It might be a thing for people transitioning to the NHL from Europe at an older age.

Based on what evidence though?

The main reason players would get “better” at age 24 would be increased opportunity or better linemates. He’s at that pinnacle.

What on earth have we seen that says 40 goals?
- sbroads24

His shot is on par with Thomas Vanek

His shot is on par with Thomas Vanek
- jcragcrumple

Thomas Vanek created his own offense. And got his shot off.

Olofsson hasn’t

People who wanted to give Reinhart a big contract forget he had 8 even-strength goals what was it his 2nd or 3rd year in the league and are ripping a rookie for his first year production

Many analytics, this one included, are subjective with their numbers and not objective and inconsistent in the analysis.

I think Olofsson should get a nice sized bridge deal because I want to see more than one year for just about any player. If you can do it one year then show me you can do it two more.

The entire Sabres PP was based on getting the puck to Olofsson and his shot. After the first 10 games it was brutal

85% of his EV minutes (that’s an educated guess) came with Eichel, and his results were underwhelming 5 on 5.

Throwing out names like Vanek and Panarin in comparison is kinda ridiculous

What about the last 15-ish games where Eichel was obviously not 100% and Olofsson and Reinhart did absolutely nothing?

Or are we just counting the 20 games after the first 22 and before the last 15?
- sbroads24

After coming back from a pretty serious injury himself? Similar to Skinner's injury last year.

People who wanted to give Reinhart a big contract forget he had 8 even-strength goals what was it his 2nd or 3rd year in the league and are ripping a rookie for his first year production

Many analytics, this one included, are subjective with their numbers and not objective and inconsistent in the analysis.

I think Olofsson should get a nice sized bridge deal because I want to see more than one year for just about any player. If you can do it one year then show me you can do it two more.
- GilPerreault11

analytics are just numbers. subjective is the analysis of it. its why the eye test takes so much heat. Because it's all subjective

After coming back from a pretty serious injury himself? Similar to Skinner's injury last year.
- adambuffalo

That’s fair. But the point is we have a very, very small sample of him being actually good.

Based on what evidence though?

The main reason players would get “better” at age 24 would be increased opportunity or better linemates. He’s at that pinnacle.

What on earth have we seen that says 40 goals?
- sbroads24

Seems to me that goalie makes nice saves or the puck goes off the bars on most shots he doesn't score on. I bet his missed shots are prettly low. He shoots with elite level precision. You don't see that? Let go that it was GMTM that found a diamond in the rough. A win is a win.

When Goalofsson fires the puck it is Seek and Destroy, which should definitely be his individual goal song.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wm58sGEdgAw

The entire Sabres PP was based on getting the puck to Olofsson and his shot. After the first 10 games it was brutal

85% of his EV minutes (that’s an educated guess) came with Eichel, and his results were underwhelming 5 on 5.

Throwing out names like Vanek and Panarin in comparison is kinda ridiculous
- sbroads24

I think saying the "entire" PP is an exaggeration to try to make your point. The PP was based on Jack on one side sniping, the point work and Olfsson. No PP is based on one play.

Thomas Vanek created his own offense. And got his shot off.

Olofsson hasn’t
- sbroads24

I think this is where analytics totally fail and you need to evaluate the player, not the stats. XG does not take into account the quality of shooter as far as I can tell. Elite goal scorers are going to score. Olofsson is going to score a lot of goals in this league

I respect what the numbers say but when there's a difference-making variable you can't meaningfully account for, the equation is undone imo

I think this is where analytics totally fail and you need to evaluate the player, not the stats. XG does not take into account the quality of shooter as far as I can tell. Elite goal scorers are going to score. Olofsson is going to score a lot of goals in this league

I respect what the numbers say but when there's a difference-making variable you can't meaningfully account for, the equation is undone imo
- jcragcrumple

That's why we look at goals above expected. Guys who regularly beat that...are probably good shooters. Olofsson was 0.3 above at 5v5 playing with eichel.