And Olofsson was a 7th round pick compared to the 2nd overall, playing on a smaller rink than he grew up on, and on many nights has dominated compared to Sam. If he wasn't hurt, he was on a pace for close to the number of points as Sam. Not bad for a rookie finding his way on an NHL sized rink. I think we have a keeper.
- GilPerreault11

We may very well have a keeper, I honesty don't know. thats why im hesitant to go long term.

This is abysmal for an “elite shooter” playing with an elite center, sorry.

Skinner had 32 in his spot last year
- sbroads24

Skinner also had 9 years in the league, that is a bit different than being in your 1st.
Jack also is shooting much more himself and taking way more opportunities than he did with Skinner.
He started finding more room as the season went on...glad he did, because he wasn't getting g great opportunities in the first couple months.

I honestly don't believe I'm particularly smart and so Im fully aware i am susceptible to confirmation bias, cherry picking, strawman even when i dont realize it.

But the majority of the discussion around olofsson has simply been about trying to poke holes at whatever numbers I use and very little about actually showing why Olofosson is worth a long term extension. I get being an easy target, but it also gets away from the original discussion.

Unless I missed it, the best pro olofsson argument has been one where we discount the first 22 games.
- Michael Ghofrani

Well theres some weird thing going on where the anti-olofsson posters are simply refusing to use any context at all.

Sabres played extremely low event hockey and he was the third fiddle on his line. There's no stat for it, but from what i watched he was just simply never carrying the puck.

You can also put whatever weight you want on it being his first NHL season, which would then give merit to the first 22 games argument. I'm a little less on that train though. I think he had lots of chances in the first 22 games and they just didn't go in.

Then on the powerplay he had a very nice season, even though it was the most vanilla godawful powerplay possible. Basically played 3v5 with Eichel and Dahlin passing it back and forth for 45 seconds.

6 years 24 million would be a risk, but i can't see how anyone would think thats not worth it.

At the end of the day though that's never going to happen, he'll bet on himself and we'll see a bridge deal.

Well theres some weird thing going on where the anti-olofsson posters are simply refusing to use any context at all.

Sabres played extremely low event hockey and he was the third fiddle on his line. There's no stat for it, but from what i watched he was just simply never carrying the puck.

You can also put whatever weight you want on it being his first NHL season, which would then give merit to the first 22 games argument. I'm a little less on that train though. I think he had lots of chances in the first 22 games and they just didn't go in.

Then on the powerplay he had a very nice season, even though it was the most vanilla godawful powerplay possible. Basically played 3v5 with Eichel and Dahlin passing it back and forth for 45 seconds.

6 years 24 million would be a risk, but i can't see how anyone would think thats not worth it.

At the end of the day though that's never going to happen, he'll bet on himself and we'll see a bridge deal.
- robz228

Not to excuse any mistakes ive made, but the amount of context required to keep everyone satisfied would require more research than i do for my full time job.

The numbers ive thrown around aren't perfect, theyre just an explanation for the questions i have about him. Thats why i dont think 24/6 years is a slam dunk.

57 coronavirus cases in erie county with only 380 results confirmed tests.

190 pending tests awaiting results, at the same rate would mean ~85 cases.

That seems like an abnormally high positive test rate.

Not to excuse any mistakes ive made, but the amount of context required to keep everyone satisfied would require more research than i do for my full time job.

The numbers ive thrown around aren't perfect, theyre just an explanation for the questions i have about him. Thats why i dont think 24/6 years is a slam dunk.
- Michael Ghofrani

That has been my problem with the advanced stats community. Far, far too many do not do the full analysis that would be required to properly make a best possible determination on a player. They prefer their go to stats of choice and/or aesthetically pleasing charts (hello RAPM) to make definitive statements.

My job is in analysis and analytics, and for the most part, the overwhelming bulk of what I see out there for the NHL is incomplete work.

We may very well have a keeper, I honesty don't know. thats why im hesitant to go long term.
- Michael Ghofrani

I am for a bridge too but against you leaving out his injury games and then comparing his even strength stats to Girgs. BTW Girgs has what 12 goals, all even strength? Good year for him and 12 even strength isn't bad when you have missed 15 games and 15 more due to the virus.

That is 30 games or so, add 8 more potential even strength goals and that is a damn good season. The full picture makes him look prettier than comparing him to Girgs outright. Subjective.

That has been my problem with the advanced stats community. Far, far too many do not do the full analysis that would be required to properly make a best possible determination on a player. They prefer their go to stats of choice and/or aesthetically pleasing charts (hello RAPM) to make definitive statements.

My job is in analysis and analytics, and for the most part, the overwhelming bulk of what I see out there for the NHL is incomplete work.
- kingcong39

When I write articles, I use as much as I can from the publicly available data. The stuff behind the paywall is good stuff, but Im hesitant to include that work in my stuff.

I dont want to make any definitive statements, just asking questions that I think are important.

But for the comments section, I dont know how much can be expected. Again my whole point is that I don't know enough about Olofsson, its my position on why there isn't enough there to bet big.

I am for a bridge too but against you leaving out his injury games and then comparing his even strength stats to Girgs. BTW Girgs has what 12 goals, all even strength? Good year for him and 12 even strength isn't bad when you have missed 15 games and 15 more due to the virus.

That is 30 games or so, add 8 more potential even strength goals and that is a damn good season. The full picture makes him look prettier than comparing him to Girgs outright. Subjective.
- GilPerreault11

I compared goals per game, so you can add extra games to the total but i was comparing goals scoring pace, not just the total.

When I write articles, I use as much as I can from the publicly available data. The stuff behind the paywall is good stuff, but Im hesitant to include that work in my stuff.

I dont want to make any definitive statements, just asking questions that I think are important.

But for the comments section, I dont know how much can be expected. Again my whole point is that I don't know enough about Olofsson, its my position on why there isn't enough there to bet big.
- Michael Ghofrani

Well nobody wants to bet big, right? Between 4 and 5 million is not big.

Imagine if we signed reinhart for 7x5 or somthing instead of 2x3.5. Sabres never have any value contracts locked in. Would be nice to snag one.

We may very well have a keeper, I honesty don't know. thats why im hesitant to go long term.
- Michael Ghofrani

Look at Panarin progression. 2 year ELC $800k, 2 year bridge deal for $6m and now 7 years at $11.6m. His 2 year bridge deal took him to UFA status. I believe a two year bridge would also take Olofsson to UFA status.

Look at Panarin progression. 2 year ELC $800k, 2 year bridge deal for $6m and now 7 years at $11.6m. His 2 year bridge deal took him to UFA status. I believe a two year bridge would also take Olofsson to UFA status.
- adambuffalo

Way better player, but yeah. Fools to not have locked him in for 7 years at 8 million or so.

Well nobody wants to bet big, right? Between 4 and 5 million is not big.

Imagine if we signed reinhart for 7x5 or somthing instead of 2x3.5. Sabres never have any value contracts locked in. Would be nice to snag one.
- robz228

For me, I just dont think there's enough there to suggest this has a good chance of being a value contract. It'd be straight risk and maybe that's called for im not sure.

Way better player, but yeah. Fools to not have locked him in for 7 years at 8 million or so.
- robz228

I think it's a little too early to say he's a way better player. He entered the league on a very good Hawks team that finished with 103 points and playing with arguably the best player in the league (Kane won the Hart that year).
Had Olofsson played the full season he'd be on pace for 63 points on a very bad team. Panarin had 77 on a very good team.
If they can sign him long term at $5-6m I think it would be a very good deal.

I think it's a little too early to say he's a way better player. He entered the league on a very good Hawks team that finished with 103 points and playing with arguably the best player in the league (Kane won the Hart that year).
Had Olofsson played the full season he'd be on pace for 63 points on a very bad team. Panarin had 77 on a very good team.
If they can sign him long term at $5-6m I think it would be a very good deal.
- adambuffalo

All of these comparisons shatter what Olofsson did 5 on 5.

Seriously, his first 10 games of PP goals has absolutely made him out to be something he isn’t yet.


We don’t even know if he’s good yet

100th episode of CURB tonight.
- Der Kaiser

- homiedclown

Between that and the corona briefings, there's a lot of must see TV today.

And Olofsson was a 7th round pick compared to the 2nd overall.
- GilPerreault11

once you are off your entry contract

this really doesn't mean much when trying to ice a team under the cap

Between that and the corona briefings, there's a lot of must see TV today.
- Der Kaiser

I watched SE7EN earlier today in fish room

about to go watch money ball while boxing orders for tomorrow

for those waiting for the walking dead tonight, it's a snoozer

57 coronavirus cases in erie county with only 380 results confirmed tests.

190 pending tests awaiting results, at the same rate would mean ~85 cases.

That seems like an abnormally high positive test rate.
- robz228

italian sausage, potato salad, and green beans tonight with a lot of beer

All of these comparisons shatter what Olofsson did 5 on 5.

Seriously, his first 10 games of PP goals has absolutely made him out to be something he isn’t yet.


We don’t even know if he’s good yet
- sbroads24

I think you have to recuse yourself from this discussion because Olofsson took your boy Skinners spot on the top line. Your opinions are very scewed.

once you are off your entry contract

this really doesn't mean much when trying to ice a team under the cap
- homiedclown

It matters when a 7th round draft pick is producing at the rate of the 2nd overall pick and Skunk is the can't miss kid by many.

It matters when a 7th round draft pick is producing at the rate of the 2nd overall pick and Skunk is the can't miss kid by many.
- GilPerreault11

Why is everyone a d!ck on here when it comes to other people's opinions? None of this is absolute so why the shots at each other?

68 bucks round trip Cuse to Tampa...

italian sausage, potato salad, and green beans tonight with a lot of beer
- homiedclown

Cast iron steak with cast iron refried pinto beans.