I think this is where analytics totally fail and you need to evaluate the player, not the stats. XG does not take into account the quality of shooter as far as I can tell. Elite goal scorers are going to score. Olofsson is going to score a lot of goals in this league

I respect what the numbers say but when there's a difference-making variable you can't meaningfully account for, the equation is undone imo
- jcragcrumple

It’s not even just the numbers. The eye test too.

Olofsson was FAR AND AWAY the worst player on his line 5 on 5.

And the numbers back it up

5 on 5 primary points -

Eichel 27
Reinhart 24
Olofsson - 12

Guess who else has 12? Zemgus Girgensons

That's why we look at goals above expected. Guys who regularly beat that...are probably good shooters. Olofsson was 0.3 above at 5v5 playing with eichel.
- Michael Ghofrani

So do you think his shot isn't anything great then, based on that?

I'm going to sound like don cherry, but I don't need stats to tell me Olofsson's shot is better than .3 (unidentified units) above expected

This is almost half of his season. Hughes struggled, he also makes nothing on the cap for 2 more seasons and is what 5 years younger than olofsson?

Taylor Hall has a strong history of success, Olofsson has 54 games, 22 of which you wanted to write off.
- Michael Ghofrani

It was his first 22 games, which would be called an adjustment period to the NHL game, but let's not include that note.

It's not like people are asking to wipe out 22 games somewhere in the middle of say his 3rd season.

Just from watching him, I thought all he had was his shot before seeing him in the NHL, but he is a much better player than just that.

Time to have fun and to take a break from Covid-19.

You are the Sabres GM.
The season has ended, and the Draft Positions have been established as:
1-Detroit
2-Chicago
3-Buffalo
4-Ottawa
5-Ottawa (via SJS)
6-LA Kings
7-Anaheim
8-Montreal
9-NJ Devils
10-Arizonia

What are the 5 Roster related moves you would make during the offseason..Trades, UFA signings, Offer Sheets...

Go!
- IonSabres

Only 5 moves? Tough ask, but here goes...

Option 1:

https://www.capfriendly.c.../armchair-gm/team/1684033

5 moves are:

Sign TJ Brodie
Sign Jesper Fast (RW)
Sign Aaron Dell (G) (your idea Ion)
Trade Ristolainen to the Devils for Jesper Bratt and the Canucks 2020 1st
Traded Montour and Reinhart to the Flames for Sean Monahan and Sam Bennett

Option 2 - Assumes that Sean Monahan is not on the outs with the Flames and/or the Sabres don't have enough to trade for him:

https://www.capfriendly.c.../armchair-gm/team/1684073

5 moves are:

Sign TJ Brodie
Sign Jesper Fast
Trade Casey Mittelstadt to the Blue Jackets for Joonas Korpisalo (G) and Eric Hjorth (19 year old D) (Chad from Die By The Blade's idea)
Trade Jack McCabe to the Predators for Nik Bonino (add other pieces both ways as necessary)
Trade Ristolainen and Asplund to the Blackhawks for Dylan Strome (add other pieces both ways as necessary)

analytics are just numbers. subjective is the analysis of it. its why the eye test takes so much heat. Because it's all subjective
- Michael Ghofrani

You choose the numbers you want to highlight and do not highlight the ones you don't want to.

It is often cherry-picking and also leaving out the cause of the numbers. There are also various stats that are stronger and weaker than others and analytics often choose the stat that fits their narrative/opinion.

Why was Sam a strong candidate for a long contract when he had 8 even-strength goals but a rookie goal scorer, who was injured for what 15 plus games gets compared to Girgs with his even-strength production without mentioning his injury by you? Subjective, cherry-picking.

The entire Sabres PP was based on getting the puck to Olofsson and his shot. After the first 10 games it was brutal

85% of his EV minutes (that’s an educated guess) came with Eichel, and his results were underwhelming 5 on 5.

Throwing out names like Vanek and Panarin in comparison is kinda ridiculous
- sbroads24

Suggesting a player who has improved year over year at every level cant get better because they are 24, despite only one season at this level is ridiculous

So do you think his shot isn't anything great then, based on that?

I'm going to sound like don cherry, but I don't need stats to tell me Olofsson's shot is better than .3 (unidentified units) above expected
- jcragcrumple

You don't need stats to know that, in terms of raw talent, olofsson has a good shot. But the numbers show that the shot isn't turning into goals above expected. That's usually because at 5v5 you have less time and space. so you either need a ridiculous shot or you need to create more time and space for yourself.

It’s not even just the numbers. The eye test too.

Olofsson was FAR AND AWAY the worst player on his line 5 on 5.

And the numbers back it up

5 on 5 primary points -

Eichel 27
Reinhart 24
Olofsson - 12

Guess who else has 12? Zemgus Girgensons
- sbroads24

It doesn't shock me that a rookie is the weak link on a line with a bona fide superstar and his side car buddy. It seems to me that there's an expectation or stagnation or regression based on the analytic models. I simply don't believe that to be true. He was a rookie and he has an elite shot. I expect improvement.

It also seems like people are ready to send him to the glue factory because he's over the hill at 24

That's why we look at goals above expected. Guys who regularly beat that...are probably good shooters. Olofsson was 0.3 above at 5v5 playing with eichel.
- Michael Ghofrani

where are you getting 0.3 from? what even is that? goals above expected per 60 or something?

You don't need stats to know that, in terms of raw talent, olofsson has a good shot. But the numbers show that the shot isn't turning into goals above expected. That's usually because at 5v5 you have less time and space. so you either need a ridiculous shot or you need to create more time and space for yourself.
- Michael Ghofrani

And the eye test showed he was rarely open 5 on 5 for Eichel to feed.

And that was with Eichel drawing a ton of attention.

It’s not even just the numbers. The eye test too.

Olofsson was FAR AND AWAY the worst player on his line 5 on 5.

And the numbers back it up

5 on 5 primary points -

Eichel 27
Reinhart 24
Olofsson - 12

Guess who else has 12? Zemgus Girgensons
- sbroads24

this is just so laughable. olofsson never carried the puck on that line. of course his primary points are going to be lower.

You choose the numbers you want to highlight and do not highlight the ones you don't want to.

It is often cherry-picking and also leaving out the cause of the numbers. There are also various stats that are stronger and weaker than others and analytics often choose the stat that fits their narrative/opinion.

Why was Sam a strong candidate for a long contract when he had 8 even-strength goals but a rookie goal scorer, who was injured for what 15 plus games gets compared to Girgs with his even-strength production without mentioning his injury by you? Subjective, cherry-picking.
- GilPerreault11

Again, that's the analyst, not the analytics.

Sam had a better all around game. rookie is also a bit of a misnomer, given he's 24 and played plenty of pro hockey. Girgensons goals/60 was higher, but i dont want to cherry pick using goal scoring data for the goal scorer.

How are we going to talk about a player's inability to create when by design he wasn't creating

where are you getting 0.3 from? what even is that? goals above expected per 60 or something?
- robz228

http://moneypuck.com/stats.htm

Again, that's the analyst, not the analytics.

Sam had a better all around game. rookie is also a bit of a misnomer, given he's 24 and played plenty of pro hockey. Girgensons goals/60 was higher, but i dont want to cherry pick using goal scoring data for the goal scorer.
- Michael Ghofrani

Shooting 15% which is completely ridiculous for Girgensons. That is totally out of context and deceptive. Not a useful comparison

this is just so laughable. olofsson never carried the puck on that line. of course his primary points are going to be lower.
- robz228

So why exactly couldn’t he get open to get his shot off then? if everyone else was doing the work?

To use a line from Office Space “What is it that you actually do here?”

Here’s an actual fact -

Olofsson was not good with Jack Eichel. He was actually not good.

That’s not encouraging

Shooting 15% which is completely ridiculous for Girgensons. That is totally out of context and deceptive. Not a useful comparison
- jcragcrumple

15? is that for EV or 5v5. I thought he hit 12 this year at 5v5



If you want a better one Sheary outperformed his goals/60 shooting roughly around his career average at 5v5 (before the trade to PIT i mean)

I think this is where analytics totally fail and you need to evaluate the player, not the stats. XG does not take into account the quality of shooter as far as I can tell. Elite goal scorers are going to score. Olofsson is going to score a lot of goals in this league

I respect what the numbers say but when there's a difference-making variable you can't meaningfully account for, the equation is undone imo
- jcragcrumple

Completely fair.

That’s why analytics can’t be the end all be all.

It should definitely factor in 60-70% though of overall thinking where the eye test makes up the other 30-40%.

So why exactly couldn’t he get open to get his shot off then? if everyone else was doing the work?

To use a line from Office Space “What is it that you actually do here?”
- sbroads24

25 of his 42 points at even strength

9 of his 20 goals, even strength

Is what he did here

Sorry for the serious question, but in keeper league where we can keep up to 6. Should I keep Gurley? Keeping Zeke, Henry and AJ Brown. On the fence with ARod, Parker and Gurley. Thinking I'm going to reshuffle the deck, but I'm liking Gurley on Atlanta now. Keep 4 and start drafting rookie WR's.

25 of his 42 points at even strength

9 of his 20 goals, even strength

Is what he did here
- ieetbred

This is abysmal for an “elite shooter” playing with an elite center, sorry.

Skinner had 32 in his spot last year

http://moneypuck.com/stats.htm
- Michael Ghofrani

you're really quoting this? lol

This is abysmal for an “elite shooter” playing with an elite center, sorry.

Skinner had 32 in his spot last year
- sbroads24

in 54 games. 38 games since his first one

In his rookie season

you're really quoting this? lol
- robz228

No, you asked me where i got the number from. It was the table in the link


unless there was no table there then i have the wrong link