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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Showdown in Sunrise; Leafs vs. Panthers
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Lucas Neilson
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Atlantic Division Blogger, ON
Joined: 06.26.2015

Feb 27 @ 3:45 PM ET


TMI TMI!!!!

- Dozzer


that's how I roll!

well, that and an L
Dozzer
Referee
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow since I’m way up high
Joined: 09.15.2010

Feb 27 @ 3:48 PM ET
that's how I roll!

well, that and an L

- Lucas.Neilson




We really need to get together in person man
Archaic
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Waterloo, ON
Joined: 01.12.2011

Feb 27 @ 3:48 PM ET
ceci
spezza
malgin
barrie

9 mil ish there I think

- Lucas.Neilson


Trading Johnnsson would likely be a move they could make to free up the extra room.
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Feb 27 @ 3:49 PM ET
Now, Bobrovsky is going to go on an absolute heater.. Florida is winning 10 straight... Starting Saturday
- PatC80


Any goalie metrics are really hard to discern because they are so subjective.

Bill Comeau has taken some raw data that tries to separate a goalie's performance from that of his team to create a net zero defense bias for the goalie's performance (this uses data from moneypuck's (they stole my name in a far more clever way, I should sue) algorithms to try and present the information.

It doesn't paint Andersen in a positive light; it also doesn't paint Bobrovsy in a good way either.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/bill.comeau#!/vizhome/NHLGoaliePerformance/xGDashboard

If you look at the tab 'xSave% Dashboard' and then set it to 5on5, both Andersen and Bobrovsky are performing equally below their expected level based on the league average.
aminnes
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Mrs. Buzzkill, AB
Joined: 12.17.2008

Feb 27 @ 3:52 PM ET
ceci
spezza
malgin
barrie

9 mil ish there I think

- Lucas.Neilson


Okay. So 3 of those guys have to be replaced by at least league mins, that ads up to about 2.25. So 6.75 left. Not sure that's enough for DP let alone another top 4.
zazzle
Joined: 01.19.2013

Feb 27 @ 3:53 PM ET
Please tell me the undies are more than just a jock strap
- Dozzer

I think it's simular to this but has a Leafs logo on it.
Dozzer
Referee
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow since I’m way up high
Joined: 09.15.2010

Feb 27 @ 3:54 PM ET
I think it's simular to this but has a Leafs logo on it.

- zazzle


I wouldn’t want to see this guy wearing this on a windy day
TheMussel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.24.2013

Feb 27 @ 3:55 PM ET
I think it's simular to this but has a Leafs logo on it.

- zazzle


That's more of a doggy door
Dozzer
Referee
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow since I’m way up high
Joined: 09.15.2010

Feb 27 @ 3:56 PM ET
That's more of a doggy door
- TheMussel




You’re not wrong
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Feb 27 @ 3:57 PM ET
Any goalie metrics are really hard to discern because they are so subjective.

Bill Comeau has taken some raw data that tries to separate a goalie's performance from that of his team to create a net zero defense bias for the goalie's performance (this uses data from moneypuck's (they stole my name in a far more clever way, I should sue) algorithms to try and present the information.

It doesn't paint Andersen in a positive light; it also doesn't paint Bobrovsy in a good way either.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/bill.comeau#!/vizhome/NHLGoaliePerformance/xGDashboard

If you look at the tab 'xSave% Dashboard' and then set it to 5on5, both Andersen and Bobrovsky are performing equally below their expected level based on the league average.

- Monkeypunk


if you expanded it out, he has hutch > andersen

his model needs work. a lot of it.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Feb 27 @ 4:02 PM ET
holy poop Frank Seravalli is only 31 years old
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Feb 27 @ 4:04 PM ET
Any goalie metrics are really hard to discern because they are so subjective.

Bill Comeau has taken some raw data that tries to separate a goalie's performance from that of his team to create a net zero defense bias for the goalie's performance (this uses data from moneypuck's (they stole my name in a far more clever way, I should sue) algorithms to try and present the information.

It doesn't paint Andersen in a positive light; it also doesn't paint Bobrovsy in a good way either.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/bill.comeau#!/vizhome/NHLGoaliePerformance/xGDashboard

If you look at the tab 'xSave% Dashboard' and then set it to 5on5, both Andersen and Bobrovsky are performing equally below their expected level based on the league average.

- Monkeypunk


I'm happy we don't have Mike Smith
Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Feb 27 @ 4:04 PM ET
holy poop Frank Seravalli is only 31 years old
- BINGO!


Really?

Good for him looking so experienced.
aminnes
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Mrs. Buzzkill, AB
Joined: 12.17.2008

Feb 27 @ 4:04 PM ET
holy poop Frank Seravalli is only 31 years old
- BINGO!


What! There is no way
Steven_Seagull
Joined: 03.03.2016

Feb 27 @ 4:06 PM ET
What! There is no way
- aminnes



1988
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Feb 27 @ 4:06 PM ET
holy poop Frank Seravalli is only 31 years old
- BINGO!

So, is this guy

BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Feb 27 @ 4:07 PM ET
What! There is no way
- aminnes


Born 1988 yeah
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Feb 27 @ 4:07 PM ET
if you expanded it out, he has hutch > andersen

his model needs work. a lot of it.

- Tumbleweed


Sort of. Here's the thing that's very simple and we all know it: Hutchinson is not a good goalie. His rebound control is terrible - possibly the worst in the league without hyperbole and his glove his well below average.

That said, when Hutchinson started, he faced more HD chances than anyone, and the quality of those chances was preposterous. In some cases it was self-imposed because he was booting out uncontrolled rebounds to the opposition. For the most part, though, it was because the team played like absolute crap in front of him.

So by that token his expected save percentage would have already been low. This is a measure of how much lower than your expected save percentage are you.

It's not saying Hutch is better than Andersen. It's saying that the shots Hutch was facing were probably harder, so he's partially excused in his expected save percentage - which is sort of true.
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Feb 27 @ 4:08 PM ET
holy poop Frank Seravalli is only 31 years old
- BINGO!


He sounds like he's 11 and looks like he's 51, so it all averages out I suppose.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Feb 27 @ 4:08 PM ET
What! There is no way
- aminnes


I'm like a month younger than the guy. Pretty sure I look at least 15 years younger though.

Unreal.
aminnes
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Mrs. Buzzkill, AB
Joined: 12.17.2008

Feb 27 @ 4:08 PM ET
Saravelli at 40.

Dozzer
Referee
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow since I’m way up high
Joined: 09.15.2010

Feb 27 @ 4:08 PM ET
Really?

Good for him looking so experienced.

- Scabeh


I have some gay buddies who describe strippers that way
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Feb 27 @ 4:10 PM ET
I'm happy we don't have Mike Smith

- PatC80


I've always been not a fan. He makes some amazing saves. He's this weird tall, lanky thing . . . he's great with the puck out of his net. But his five hole is the size of a person. When you get him moving side to side, you could literally shoot Denis Malgin in his five hole.

That sounds terrible. But accurate.
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Feb 27 @ 4:11 PM ET
Sort of. Here's the thing that's very simple and we all know it: Hutchinson is not a good goalie. His rebound control is terrible - possibly the worst in the league without hyperbole and his glove his well below average.

That said, when Hutchinson started, he faced more HD chances than anyone, and the quality of those chances was preposterous. In some cases it was self-imposed because he was booting out uncontrolled rebounds to the opposition. For the most part, though, it was because the team played like absolute crap in front of him.

So by that token his expected save percentage would have already been low. This is a measure of how much lower than your expected save percentage are you.

It's not saying Hutch is better than Andersen. It's saying that the shots Hutch was facing were probably harder, so he's partially excused in his expected save percentage - which is sort of true.

- Monkeypunk


That makes sense.. If you don't expect Hutch to make any save, like at all, his expected save % has to be pretty decent.
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Feb 27 @ 4:11 PM ET
That makes sense.. If you don't expect Hutch to make any save, like at all, his expected save % has to be pretty decent.
- PatC80


The real question is how does Hutch compare to Ayres.
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