Exactly! I'll be honest, aside from the horrid Seabrook contract, I have no idea if what Bowman has done in the last 3 or 4 years is good or bad. That will take a few years to assess. And the success of the team is the main reason for the problems the team now experiences. I was a proponent after 2016 of the team trying to move the core and rebuilding. It's too late now to get anything of value for anyone but Kane and at his age even he won't bring back much return. The team pretty much has to ride out the contracts of Seabrook, Kane, Toews and Keith and in the meantime work on drafting well and developing their prospects. Like you I don't expect this team to be more than a middle of the road club until the core is gone.
- paulr
I'll give Bowman some credit, he's had 3 drafts in a row now where it LOOKS like we're going to have some really solid players. The problem is that it's too little too late.
Bowman showed that he was good at MAINTAINING a great hockey team that had 5 HOF players on it. He has never had to rebuild a bad hockey team before. This is uncharted waters for him. We now have to judge Bowman by what he's done to address the dimise of the dynasty over the past 3 years.
2017 - 2018 |
33-39-10 (76 points, 7th in division)
First season after the first round playoff sweep.
2018 - 2019 |
36-34-12 (84 points, 6th in division)
Q takes the fall and Colliton takes over (I think a new voice was needed but bringing in a rookie coach whose never coached at the professional level in NA... Whose the same age as some of the guys on the team who have 3 cups to their name... That's just idiocy to think they would listen to and respect a guy like that after having one of the greatest coaches in hockey history)
2019 - 2020 |
YTD 25-24-8 (58 points, 7th in division) | on pace for 80 points
SO...
The reason Bowman cannot stay is simple. There is no progress being made here. They're attempting this "retool on the fly" strategy that the Pens are doing. The difference between the Hawks and Pens? A GM whose good at evaluating talent, and more importantly willing to admit mistakes and address them quickly if he was wrong. Jim Rutherford gives players about 40 - 82 games to show if they click with the team in place and the system they're running. If they're not, he deals them and tries again. He doesn't wait 2 or 3 years to see what he has.
Bowman on the other hand is stubborn. There's countless examples but look no further than Nylander and Kampf. Nylander doesn't belong on an NHL roster right now but he has to save face from dealing a young up and coming Dman who we need much more than Nylander. Kampf is a bonafide AHLer whose being protected much like they did with Kruger. Where is he now?
Along with the awful system Colliton runs where Defenseman poop their pads all over the ice, the Hawks don't have any forward depth.
Let's look at that:
1st line capable talent
Debrincat
Kane
Toews
Hopefully Debrincat is just having an off year...
Kane is Kane.
1st/2nd flex
Toews
If Toews didn't have the year he had last year, he'd be a pretty firm 2nd line center based upon points for the last 5-6 years. I know everything he does for the team, but 10.5 million dollar players are paid to be superstar offensive talents, not well rounded overall players.
2nd line talent
Saad
Strome
I'm not completely sold on Strome yet, he seems to be a complimentary player incapable of driving the play or taking over a shift himself, which you'd like to see from a young 2nd line center who was drafted 3rd overall and in his 3rd pro year. But he's still young so let's give him the benefit of the doubt for this.
Saad is dominant when he wants to be, the problem is he isn't consistent and when he's not that dominant player he falls to a third line talent level.
3rd line talent
Shaw
Kubalik
Kirby Dach
Dach has his flashes and he's going to be a great NHL player. But he needs time to grow his game. Once that happens I think he'll likely be a 1 or 2 center someday. However for this example taking a look at this season and the last couple, he's on pace for 27 points which puts him at low end 3rd line production.
Kubalik has a hell of a shot and on a bad team (like this one) he's probably a 2nd line player. But he doesn't have the playmaking ability required for a top 6 role on a cup contending team. On a good team I think he probably slots down to the third line talent who plays on the PP. He's on pace for 49 points but his shooting percentage is at 16.7 percent which is really high, expect that to drop off.
Shaw is Shaw.
Annnnd finally...
4th line talent
Drake Caggiula
Ryan Carpenter
David Kampf
Zack Smith
Alex Nylander
Some combination of Matthew Highmore/Dylan Sikura/John Quenville/Brandon Hagel
Two whole lines worth of 4th liners who play consistently for this team.
Caggiula gets moved all around the lineup
Carpenter got like 4 mins of PP time recently
Kampf is an AHLer
Zack Smith is an energy guy
Alex Nylander is... bad
All of those AHLs aren't ready and even when they are none of them are more than 3rd or 4th line fillers.
This is why the Hawks are 13-28 when Kane doesn't have a
multi point night. And 1-12 when he doesn't record a single point.
This team is poorly coached and badly rostered. Chalk full of 4th liners and players that don't belong in the NHL. Both of those fall on Bowman.
The only reason this team isn't even worse, is because Colliton changed his defensive system. Had he not done that, Bowman and Colliton would have been fired. But since he did, the Hawks started playing better. That's why Bowman is still here right now. That change gave Rocky and McD hope this team could turn it around.
But now here we are, too close to the trade deadline to fire him and bring in someone else. I suspect they will either fire him once they're ruled out of the playoffs for the 3rd straight year, or wait until the season is over.
If there was progress being made I'd say maybe he stays, but this is the third year of a 6th or 7th place team with no top tier up and coming forward prospects other than Dach because Bowman swung and missed on Nylander.
As much as people yell about the defense, the offense is as bad or worse, it's just being masked by Kane and the insane goaltending they've gotten.
The Western Conference is loaded with bubble teams and the Hawks still are in 7th place.
Bowman's plan was to rebuild on the fly so that the Hawks would remain competitive and relevant and make Rocky some playoff money. How do you think Rocky is going to feel seeing that the team is status quo for the third straight year after Bowman told him "this team is good enough" the last two years?
Are you willing to bet that after yet another embarrassing season, that Rocky is fine with the status and progress of this team?
I'm not. Money talks. And Bowman is losing Rocky lots and lots of money.