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Forums :: Blog World :: James Tanner: Handicapping the Pacific Division Playoff Race
Author Message
Codes1087
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 09.24.2014

Feb 3 @ 3:45 PM ET
You must be new to sports or reading.
- Hunkulese


don't worry, we will save the receipt. Flames are winning the Pacific.

#schedulenumbersmatter
RedC21
Calgary Flames
Joined: 01.18.2013

Feb 3 @ 11:15 PM ET
The value of team depth really depends on how good your stars are up front. Let’s say the average star player scores 40 goals, but considering there’s only so many elite players to go around the league your top line is assembled of really good 1st liners capable of scoring 30. You would be wise to use the money you would save on a star player to get the extra 10 goals somewhere else in your lineup.

So if you have a top heavy team like Edmonton, yes it would be best to save your money on your 3rd/4th lines perhaps spend it somewhere else like defense. But when people are saying Edmonton needs secondary scoring they are talking about the other 4 forewords in their top six. McDavid and drai had monster years last year and Edmonton finished 20th in goals scored. It would have took an extra 30 goals to just be ranked 10th. Furthermore according to https://www.hockey-refere...e.com/teams/EDM/2019.html league average goaltending last year was .905(which I’ll admit still isn’t great) and average shots against is 2579. For comparison Edmonton received .896 sv% on 2599 shots finishing 7th in goals allowed. If Edmonton gets league average goaltending they allow 24 less goals and sit 15th in the league in goals allowed. Good enough to be a bubble team maybe squeak in the playoffs. On a side note the 20th ranked team in goals against was minnesota. They received .904 goaltending but only took 2419 shots against.
Also Colorado the team to take the last playoff spot finished with 258 GF (10th) and 244 GA (16th)


So that’s goaltending, offensively Edmonton’s shooting percentage was actually .1% higher than league average at which rate they scored 229 goals on 2392 shots. The league average is 244 goals on 2579 shots. With only an extra 24 shots allowed sure you can say the goaltending should have been better, but with 187 less shots taken and a CF% of 48 shows that the roster assembled that includes these 2 top players in the league (which 100% were not the problem) was the bigger anchor to the team.

As of late it seems they found a strong trio in drai-rnh-Yamamoto, and mcdavid being mcdavid they may have the beginnings of enough depth up front to be considered a guaranteed playoff team let alone a contender. Could probably still use a proven top six foreword with mcdavid instead of Neal or archibald. But banking the success of any team all on mcdavid/drai and goaltending with no support would be a mistake. If you shutdown those two or their goalie poops the bed they’re cooked.
geta02it
Calgary Flames
Location: AB
Joined: 11.10.2007

Feb 4 @ 10:42 AM ET
don't worry, we will save the receipt. Flames are winning the Pacific.

#schedulenumbersmatter

- Codes1087

Ignore him... we do.
I'd rather finish middle of the pack and play Edmonton in the first round, even you guys would watch that series.
carsonagenic
Vancouver Canucks
Location: AB
Joined: 03.08.2006

Feb 4 @ 10:59 AM ET
Always a good laugh with Mr Tanner. The ultimate pot stirring machine.
Quoting fancy stats without considering basic ones, like the current standings. How does Arizona pass the Canucks into 3rd?
Vancouver: 65 points 53 games played.
Arizona: 59 points 54 games played.
So lets just say the Canucks regress to a .500 team for the remainder of the season, (IMO they will regress but not that bad) 14W W14L 1 OTL. That equates to 29 points + their 65 = 94 points. Canucks hold 4 RW lead as well over Coyotes.
Arizona would need to get, with their 28 games remaining, 36 points to get to 95.
So, 18W 10L. Thats .643 hockey for almost 1/3 of the season. For team that just lost 5 straight... Very big ask.
And thats basing it once again on the Canucks only playing at .500 (they are playing .750, 7W 2L 1OTL in last 10).
Ah Tanner.... blinded by the fancy stats are you not yet again?

Codes1087
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 09.24.2014

Feb 4 @ 11:20 AM ET
Ignore him... we do.
I'd rather finish middle of the pack and play Edmonton in the first round, even you guys would watch that series.

- geta02it


Flames will make the playoffs, but winning the division, I dont think so. Nor do I think the canucks will.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Feb 4 @ 11:27 AM ET
I was unsure that "schedule" was a number until now
- NewYorkNuck


(Schedule x Opponent) / Luck = Points
DodgeSoups
Montreal Canadiens
Location: BC
Joined: 06.30.2019

Feb 4 @ 12:18 PM ET
Tanner, you suck. So does everything you think and say. Your arguments may as well be:
“I know you are, but what am I?” Or, “No, you are!” Or,
“Because I said so!” Or,
“Na, Na, Nana, Na, your team sucks”

No, wait, that last one was directed at you Tanner!
Makita
Referee
Vancouver Canucks
Location: #theonlyrealfan, BC
Joined: 02.16.2007

Feb 4 @ 12:27 PM ET
Ignore him... we do.
I'd rather finish middle of the pack and play Edmonton in the first round, even you guys would watch that series.

- geta02it


Damn rights, that would be an epic old school series.
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