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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Leafs finally even in games, only moving Kapanen in "big" deal
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PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Jan 23 @ 10:05 AM ET
hd chance against
isles 475
Leafs 436

shots against
isles 1270
leafs 1260


goals against
isles 2.65
leafs 3.29

isles and leafs have allowed about the same number of shots on net. isles have allowed 39 more hd chance against; almost 10% more.

if hd chances are a good stat, we should trade andersen/hutch for varlarmov/mzarek. isles GA should go up to ~3.5 and leafs should go down to ~2.5 because the isles allow more hd chances, right?

- Tumbleweed


Yah right, like the Islanders would trade for a sieve like Andersen.. Give your head a shake
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Jan 23 @ 10:06 AM ET
I HATE the way HD scoring chances are measured. I get wanting to work on averages, but basing them almost exclusively on location is a joke when there are a billion variables.

Two shots from the exact same place from the exact same player on the exact same goalie do not necessarily have the same odds of going in.

- BINGO!


and excludes a lot.

an ovechkin one-timer from the top of the circle is a hd chance. but not.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Jan 23 @ 10:06 AM ET
It is not a perfect science but it separates the weak attempts.

SV% on its own is an even worse stat to look at.

- Santo_44


Oh for sure, it's better than nothing, but I do think it's misleading.

There are some really weak attempts from in tight that have virtually no chance of going in, too.
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Jan 23 @ 10:08 AM ET
Yah right, like the Islanders would trade for a sieve like Andersen.. Give your head a shake
- PatC80


maybe dubas can trick old man lou. do we have any grit or leadership to throw into the deal?
TheMussel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.24.2013

Jan 23 @ 10:11 AM ET
maybe dubas can trick old man lou. do we have any grit or leadership to throw into the deal?
- Tumbleweed

hainsey, komarov, marleau and martin are all gone
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Jan 23 @ 10:12 AM ET
maybe dubas can trick old man lou. do we have any grit or leadership to throw into the deal?
- Tumbleweed



We'd have to add in our one fighter Travis Dermott for sure
TheMussel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.24.2013

Jan 23 @ 10:12 AM ET
and excludes a lot.

an ovechkin one-timer from the top of the circle is a hd chance. but not.

- Tumbleweed


More of a 4k chance if you ask me
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Jan 23 @ 10:12 AM ET
hainsey, komarov, marleau and martin are all gone
- TheMussel



We still have Dermott, he's our tough guy
TheMussel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.24.2013

Jan 23 @ 10:13 AM ET
We still have Dermott, he's our tough guy
- PatC80


What about Marchment. Imagine the treasure trove of premium assets we can get for that guy if Dubas was just man enough to pick up the phone and call.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Jan 23 @ 10:15 AM ET
hd chance against
isles 475
Leafs 436

shots against
isles 1270
leafs 1260


goals against
isles 2.65
leafs 3.29

isles and leafs have allowed about the same number of shots on net. isles have allowed 39 more hd chance against; almost 10% more.

if hd chances are a good stat, we should trade andersen/hutch for varlarmov/mzarek. isles GA should go up to ~3.5 and leafs should go down to ~2.5 because the isles allow more hd chances, right?

- Tumbleweed


Kind of adds to how crappy of a year Andersen is having...Thanks for pointing that out.
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Jan 23 @ 10:18 AM ET
What about Marchment. Imagine the treasure trove of premium assets we can get for that guy if Dubas was just man enough to pick up the phone and call.
- TheMussel


Adding Marchment might be enough to get Georgiev.

Marchment, Marner, Sandin and a 2021 1st rd pick..

Just not sure if it's enough to get Georgiev
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Jan 23 @ 10:19 AM ET
Kind of adds to how crappy of a year Andersen is having...Thanks for pointing that out.
- Santo_44



I thought we discussed this yesterday..

It's on the players, each one of them individually, and collectively as a group, along with Keefe and Dubas to come together and find ways for Andersen to close his legs.
senstroll
Location: Leafs AAV Champs, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Jan 23 @ 10:19 AM ET
hd chance against
isles 475
Leafs 436

shots against
isles 1270
leafs 1260


goals against
isles 2.65
leafs 3.29

isles and leafs have allowed about the same number of shots on net. isles have allowed 39 more hd chance against; almost 10% more.

if hd chances are a good stat, we should trade andersen/hutch for varlarmov/mzarek. isles GA should go up to ~3.5 and leafs should go down to ~2.5 because the isles allow more hd chances, right?

- Tumbleweed


the Isls goalies are varlarmov/Greiss

and yes, I would trade them yesterday

Greiss and valm are +15 in GSAA
Andersen and Hutch are like -7

mostly hutch, as Andersen is 1.09

Griess is really good
senstroll
Location: Leafs AAV Champs, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Jan 23 @ 10:22 AM ET
Kind of adds to how crappy of a year Andersen is having...Thanks for pointing that out.
- Santo_44


the Islanders get pointed as a success, but if there is a team thats getting bailed out with good goalies, its them.

They are what everyone thinks the Leafs are
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Jan 23 @ 10:28 AM ET
Pierre LeBrun‏Verified account @PierreVLeBrun · 39s39 seconds ago


If the NHL playoffs started today in the East:

The NHL-leading Caps would get Carolina again;
The Pens would get the Isles again;
The Atlantic-leading Bruins would get red-hot Columbus;
We'd get our first-ever Battle of Florida playoff series between the Bolts and Panthers.


It's official.. Pierre LeBrun hates the Leafs..
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Jan 23 @ 10:36 AM ET
Pierre LeBrun‏Verified account @PierreVLeBrun · 39s39 seconds ago


If the NHL playoffs started today in the East:

The NHL-leading Caps would get Carolina again;
The Pens would get the Isles again;
The Atlantic-leading Bruins would get red-hot Columbus;
We'd get our first-ever Battle of Florida playoff series between the Bolts and Panthers.


It's official.. Pierre LeBrun hates the Leafs..

- PatC80



There's some real hate there.
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Jan 23 @ 10:38 AM ET
Who needs a 1st round pick when you can just draft a 1st round caliber player with a 2nd?
- Santo_44

Like Korshkov!
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Jan 23 @ 10:40 AM ET
Oh for sure, it's better than nothing, but I do think it's misleading.

There are some really weak attempts from in tight that have virtually no chance of going in, too.

- BINGO!

I'm guessing this is a specific reference to JVR's patented move.
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Jan 23 @ 10:42 AM ET
the Isls goalies are varlarmov/Greiss

and yes, I would trade them yesterday

Greiss and valm are +15 in GSAA
Andersen and Hutch are like -7

mostly hutch, as Andersen is 1.09

Griess is really good

- senstroll


cool.

i don't see the isles and leafs playing anywhere near the same style. I think a straight up comparison of goalie numbers between the 2 teams is beyond zero value, but is actually negative value; because it leads to bad conclusions.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Jan 23 @ 10:43 AM ET
Adding Marchment might be enough to get Georgiev.

Marchment, Marner, Sandin and a 2021 1st rd pick..

Just not sure if it's enough to get Georgiev

- PatC80

Can we just send a 3rd to get Aaron Dell? Or Miller if he is willing to come here.

(frank) giving this much assets for a backup with some potential.
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Jan 23 @ 10:46 AM ET


There's some real hate there.

- BINGO!


Lousy LeBrun, I bet he's happy the Leafs are out..
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Jan 23 @ 10:46 AM ET
cool.

i don't see the isles and leafs playing anywhere near the same style. I think a straight up comparison of goalie numbers between the 2 teams is beyond zero value, but is actually negative value; because it leads to bad conclusions.

- Tumbleweed

The Isles aren't as good as their record shows

They are 14-16 since late November.

They are a perfect example of a team getting hot goal tending.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Jan 23 @ 10:47 AM ET
Like Korshkov!
- Atomic Wedgie

I never was in love with that pick....but didn't he break both legs in a 2 year time span?
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Jan 23 @ 10:47 AM ET
Can we just send a 3rd to get Aaron Dell? Or Miller if he is willing to come here.

(frank) giving this much assets for a backup with some potential.

- Santo_44


A 3rd for Dell.. I like it
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Jan 23 @ 10:49 AM ET
The Isles aren't as good as their record shows

They are 14-16 since late November.

They are a perfect example of a team getting hot goal tending.

- Santo_44



We just need a 10 game winning streak.. It's gotta happen, like starting Monday.
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