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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Ghofrani: Sabres Head Into Bye Week On A Losing Note
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Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Jan 21 @ 2:42 PM ET
Easy for me...Point.
Center, puts up poi ts, solid 2 way player, fast, smart.
On this team, be fills the biggest position of need.
With VO and Skins, LW is covered well enough, where the value in acquiri g the other 2 is diminished...although cheaper than Skinner.
Do either of those 2 put up close to the same production playing with Larson as their C?

- IonSabres

2014 NHL DRAFT
3rd Round Pick 74 Brycen Martin. Buffalo Sabres
3rd Round Pick 79 Braydon Point Tampa Bay Lightning
adambuffalo
Buffalo Sabres
Location: United States, NY
Joined: 01.30.2007

Jan 21 @ 2:46 PM ET
they didn't try to get him



- homiedclown

Botts didn't try to get the hotdog eater, but instead traded a 4th for a guy who rented ice time in Florida and is doing bag skates on the 10 day break and people are upset.
$6.8m for two more years and he's having his worst season in 13 years. He's not getting any younger either.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jan 21 @ 2:47 PM ET
burying a million dollar fringe nhl scrub is nothing like burying a 2.75 million dollar goalie who is suppose to be in his prime
- homiedclown


I don’t think Hutton at age 34 is “in his prime”
PrinceChill
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.06.2014

Jan 21 @ 2:48 PM ET
2014 NHL DRAFT
3rd Round Pick 74 Brycen Martin. Buffalo Sabres
3rd Round Pick 79 Braydon Point Tampa Bay Lightning

- Buff36

1970 NHL DRAFT
5th Round Pick 57 Mike Morton Buffalo Sabres
5th Round Pick 59 Billy Smith New York Islanders
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jan 21 @ 2:49 PM ET
John Vogl read my hockeybuzz post and agreed with my assessed value of Reinhart.

https://theathletic.com/1...s-restricted-free-agency/

- TheSabresTaco


The article started off nicely and had decent comparables, but then he just left it hanging...no conclusion, no analyses of the important contract considerations...% of Cap Hit, RFA Arb Eligiblity, 2019 RFA signings which came in higher than original estimated (is this the start of paying RFA's more online with contract period production?), and UFA years bought.

At 1st look, you could say, ahh...Larkin at $6.1m @ 5 years ...there you go, $6.1m it is.

But after ERod's Arb Award still has Botts bent over the Pommel Horse, does he really really want to go there, or will he feel pressured as the clock ticks down?
Does Sam draw a hard line in the sand, feeling screwed for having to prove himself over 2 years and leaving say $3-5m on the table lost due to the bridge deal?
How many UFA years are included? Any term after 3 years are UFA years. Those carry a premium to buy. Many of those Comparables Vogel used did not contain many UFA years as those contracts were signed immediately after the ELC expired. So only 1 in Larkin's case.

I'm going with about 8.75%+ of an $83.m Cap = $7.25 - $7.5m is my guess for 6 years.
If Sam gets into the 70-75pt range...ohhhh, that will cause it to go up.
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Jan 21 @ 2:54 PM ET
1970 NHL DRAFT
5th Round Pick 57 Mike Morton Buffalo Sabres
5th Round Pick 59 Billy Smith New York Islanders

- PrinceChill

Nice find, but we had Crozier and Dryden at the time
thatsapickle
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Dallas, TX
Joined: 03.08.2012

Jan 21 @ 2:57 PM ET
Nice find, but we had Crozier and Dryden at the time
- Buff36



The point is that revisiting draft mistakes doesn't really make much of a difference. Murray was looking at defensive depth, if I am not mistaken.

3rd rounders are less likely to make the show.
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jan 21 @ 2:57 PM ET
I don’t think Hutton at age 34 is “in his prime”
- jdfitz77

This curve looks reasonable in graph form, but it really predicts that goalies will fall off a cliff from age 35 on:
Change from 35 to 36 years old: -.005
Change from 36 to 37 years old: -.006
Change from 37 to 38 years old: -.007
Change from 38 to 39 years old: -.008
Change from 39 to 40 years old: -.009


https://hockey-graphs.com...-at-a-goalie-aging-curve/
BeadyEyedDouche
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Rustmine Ramsum most exciting Sabres klugdragger since Taro Tsujimoto
Joined: 07.01.2016

Jan 21 @ 2:58 PM ET
Oh my!
- Beethoven

Lmao, you were obviously there if you know what the Video Liquidator is but gg 8/10
Der Kaiser
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I Know Nothink ... NOTHINK!
Joined: 07.27.2007

Jan 21 @ 3:00 PM ET
Lmao, you were obviously there if you know what the Video Liquidator is but gg 8/10
- BeadyEyedDouche


Camouflage post
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jan 21 @ 3:01 PM ET
2014 NHL DRAFT
3rd Round Pick 74 Brycen Martin. Buffalo Sabres
3rd Round Pick 79 Braydon Point Tampa Bay Lightning

- Buff36


2014 NHL DRAFT

2:35 Tampa - Dominik Masin
7:181 Buffalo - Victor Olofsson

BeadyEyedDouche
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Rustmine Ramsum most exciting Sabres klugdragger since Taro Tsujimoto
Joined: 07.01.2016

Jan 21 @ 3:01 PM ET
Camouflage post
- Der Kaiser

Makeshift dildo
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jan 21 @ 3:01 PM ET
The fascination with Bjugstad is mind boggling. All hype. Very little substance.
- buffalofan19


Totally agree

Just another average 3rd liner that ppl think will make a difference at 2C

Dumb idea
PrinceChill
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.06.2014

Jan 21 @ 3:01 PM ET
Nice find, but we had Crozier and Dryden at the time
- Buff36

Yes, the immortal Dave Dryden. Perhaps Billy Smith could’ve helped in the 74-75 Cup run more than Mike Morton, but we’ll never know.
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Jan 21 @ 3:02 PM ET
The article started off nicely and had decent comparables, but then he just left it hanging...no conclusion, no analyses of the important contract considerations...% of Cap Hit, RFA Arb Eligiblity, 2019 RFA signings which came in higher than original estimated (is this the start of paying RFA's more online with contract period production?), and UFA years bought.

At 1st look, you could say, ahh...Larkin at $6.1m @ 5 years ...there you go, $6.1m it is.

But after ERod's Arb Award still has Botts bent over the Pommel Horse, does he really really want to go there, or will he feel pressured as the clock ticks down?
Does Sam draw a hard line in the sand, feeling screwed for having to prove himself over 2 years and leaving say $3-5m on the table lost due to the bridge deal?
How many UFA years are included? Any term after 3 years are UFA years. Those carry a premium to buy. Many of those Comparables Vogel used did not contain many UFA years as those contracts were signed immediately after the ELC expired. So only 1 in Larkin's case.

I'm going with about 8.75%+ of an $83.m Cap = $7.25 - $7.5m is my guess for 6 years.
If Sam gets into the 70-75pt range...ohhhh, that will cause it to go up.

- IonSabres


Don't have access to the article. Is someone suggesting he'll file for arb?

Like I've said before Teravainen is about as clean a comparable as you'll find (not that I think he'll come in that low). Larkin is a C, wasn't coming off a bridge, and a better player.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jan 21 @ 3:04 PM ET
Don't have access to the article. Is someone suggesting he'll file for arb?

Like I've said before Teravainen is about as clean a comparable as you'll find (not that I think he'll come in that low). Larkin is a C, wasn't coming off a bridge, and a better player.

- Lunaion


6.75. Write it down.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jan 21 @ 3:05 PM ET
Malkin

All second line centers

Bonino









Johan Larsson


Bjugstad

- TheSabresTaco



Well said

Brassard > Bjugstad too
And Brassard is a UFA this summer
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Jan 21 @ 3:06 PM ET
6.75. Write it down.
- TheSabresTaco


I agree with your reasoning. Arb is an interesting curveball. It would be a strange route though.
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Jan 21 @ 3:06 PM ET
Yes, the immortal Dave Dryden. Perhaps Billy Smith could’ve helped in the 74-75 Cup run more than Mike Morton, but we’ll never know.
- PrinceChill

Very true
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jan 21 @ 3:11 PM ET
I agree with your reasoning. Arb is an interesting curveball. It would be a strange route though.
- Lunaion


You don't take Sam Reinhart to arbitration. Mark that one down too. Would be a complete embarrassment. I'm sure he'll file, but that contract will be done prior to a hearing.

And if it isn't, (frank) Botterill with a fistfull of broken ebola vials.
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Jan 21 @ 3:12 PM ET
The point is that revisiting draft mistakes doesn't really make much of a difference. Murray was looking at defensive depth, if I am not mistaken.

3rd rounders are less likely to make the show.

- thatsapickle

Yes I get that, and he was because he had traded his depth away. And picked Rhino that year to play Center.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jan 21 @ 3:16 PM ET
No. No it's not at all.

Skinner, Bjugstad and Mojo is worse than Skinner, Mojo and Sobotka.

If they're bringing in Bjugstad to play 2C, may as well start looking at next year's draft to see who we can get in the top 10.

- adambuffalo


Exactly
hubie
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Matt Ellis is my patronus, NY
Joined: 06.28.2011

Jan 21 @ 3:17 PM ET
In other news.... what link did i click on that the Buzz gives me adds for old ladies orthodontic shoes ?
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Jan 21 @ 3:20 PM ET
You don't take Sam Reinhart to arbitration. Mark that one down too. Would be a complete embarrassment. I'm sure he'll file, but that contract will be done prior to a hearing.

And if it isn't, (frank) Botterill with a fistfull of broken ebola vials.

- TheSabresTaco


The team won't. No question there. I'm not sure he'll file.
lulags
Buffalo Sabres
Location: St Louis
Joined: 02.24.2007

Jan 21 @ 3:21 PM ET
Some very good points make here

https://www.diebytheblade...ce-for-the-buffalo-sabres
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