I put down $300 that Phil wouldn’t hit 70 points (took the under) with the yotes this year. Gonna win myself a nice $875. Check back to the blogs with some people saying Phil could carry his own line and he’s still a 80-85 point scorer hahaha
- pens4life-66

I was saying in the summer I was thinking 60/65ish for him this season.

I was saying in the summer I was thinking 60/65ish for him this season.
- MattStrat

I’d say 100. He doesn’t have Johnson holding him back now.

I have to give credit to Ryan Wilson. Morino’s peripheral, fancy stats, metrics whatever the kids call it now stats are bad and he’s sticking to his song. Bad stats= bad player. Personally I’d stick morino with Shultz and tell them to just try to help drive offense and put big G and Pettersson together.

I still putting a scorer there and using Simon to bolster the middle 6, but I have to admit I just took a quick glance at PDO, which was even, and not SV% so I tip my hat to you for showing me something I missed.

Per the regression, great scorers consistently out perform those metrics, they don't necessarily regress. But I can concede your point of thinking that's safer for the top unit. Still need play driving ability more for the rest of the line up IMO.
- Tojo.

I don't have the stats on outperforming, but to your pt, imagine if sid, g , and simon outperform expectations just like just sid and g did. to sum up my thought process (what i assume most simon stans's are), i dont want simons possession ability wasted with bjug and horn or even 4th line.

That's the joke about Ryan Wilson saying we were screwed with the Malkin injury because we no longer had Kessel. What would we expect out of a Horn/McCann/Kessel 2nd line? Kessel was all PP points and Malkin line points, with the small exception of HBK

If anything, the lunch bucket, hard working team we've had on the ice lately is in stark contrast to what we'd have with Kessel on the roster. Tough to get young players to buy into playing hard and sticking to the system when a "Star" is off loafing and doing his own thing
- TheGame316

Lol what a joke you are.

I put down $300 that Phil wouldn’t hit 70 points (took the under) with the yotes this year. Gonna win myself a nice $875. Check back to the blogs with some people saying Phil could carry his own line and he’s still a 80-85 point scorer hahaha
- pens4life-66

Funny how all of the smarter than thou crowd has been quiet about his slow start...

I had him at 65 points and I had Gally at the same. He will pick it up a bit but this myth of him being able to create at even strength will be crushed. Only mistake in moving Kessel was that they waited too long. Should have traded him at last years deadline or even the year before.

Funny how all of the smarter than thou crowd has been quiet about his slow start...

I had him at 65 points and I had Gally at the same. He will pick it up a bit but this myth of him being able to create at even strength will be crushed. Only mistake in moving Kessel was that they waited too long. Should have traded him at last years deadline or even the year before.
- MacPatty

Kessel had 46 points at even strength last year. 36 of his 46 ES points were goals or primary apples but okay. Still a myth.

I don't have the stats on outperforming, but to your pt, imagine if sid, g , and simon outperform expectations just like just sid and g did. to sum up my thought process (what i assume most simon stans's are), i dont want simons possession ability wasted with bjug and horn or even 4th line.
- joecool2931

So you’d rather have it wasted on Sids line? Interesting thought process.

Kessel had 46 points at even strength last year. 36 of his 46 ES points were goals or primary apples but okay. Still a myth.
- j.boyd919

Yes, figured you would chime in...

So if he didnt get power play time and you were just looking at a guy scoring 15 goals and 31 assists and was a -19 would you say that guy was a stud who can carry a line?

Not even accounting for the fact he plays even strength with a top 15 center in the league against the second best forward and D pairs their opponents can put out. OVERRATED.

Funny how all of the smarter than thou crowd has been quiet about his slow start...

- MacPatty

Funny how more than a couple of people on this board want to basically end the season after six games.

Yes, figured you would chime in...

So if he didnt get power play time and you were just looking at a guy scoring 15 goals and 31 assists and was a -19 would you say that guy was a stud who can carry a line?

Not even accounting for the fact he plays even strength with a top 15 center in the league against the second best forward and D pairs their opponents can put out. OVERRATED.
- MacPatty

I get some of the shade thrown at his 5 on 5 play and I get the way he plays make it seem like he doesnt care about D....but to call an over a PPG player overrated is a bit silly, especially knowing how important he was in the 2 B2B cups.

I get some of the shade thrown at his 5 on 5 play and I get the way he plays make it seem like he doesnt care about D....but to call an over a PPG player overrated is a bit silly, especially knowing how important he was in the 2 B2B cups.
- MattStrat

Yeah, but after six games it’s clear any of us who are Kessel fans were wrong.

I get some of the shade thrown at his 5 on 5 play and I get the way he plays make it seem like he doesnt care about D....but to call an over a PPG player overrated is a bit silly, especially knowing how important he was in the 2 B2B cups.
- MattStrat

Love Phil but he's not an over PPG player in his career.

Yeah, but after six games it’s clear any of us who are Kessel fans were wrong.
- Rinosaur

Yea he'll be fine his points will probably drop not being here but he'll probably end with around 65-75 depending on how their PP works out

Yes, figured you would chime in...

So if he didnt get power play time and you were just looking at a guy scoring 15 goals and 31 assists and was a -19 would you say that guy was a stud who can carry a line?

Not even accounting for the fact he plays even strength with a top 15 center in the league against the second best forward and D pairs their opponents can put out. OVERRATED.
- MacPatty

I think you vastly underestimate how much production high end players generate off the PP. Patrick Kane, widely considered to be a top 3 RW in the game for many years and a similarly one way player, averages 57 ES points per season. A huge chunk of productions comes off special teams for pretty much any high end offensive player on the 1PP unit.

I get some of the shade thrown at his 5 on 5 play and I get the way he plays make it seem like he doesnt care about D....but to call an over a PPG player overrated is a bit silly, especially knowing how important he was in the 2 B2B cups.
- MattStrat

He is overrated if anyone believes he us really a top line, ppg winger.

He was very important during the cup runs for sure. But he was a power play specialist and played on the 3rd line against easy competition.

I think you vastly underestimate how much production high end players generate off the PP. Patrick Kane, widely considered to be a top 3 RW in the game for many years and a similarly one way player, averages 57 ES points per season. A huge chunk of productions comes off special teams for pretty much any high end offensive player on the 1PP unit.
- Victoro311

57 ES points is a heck of a lot more than 46. So on average he scores 20% more even strength points... that's a lot! Last year Kane had what, 80 ES points? Not to mention he plays a much better two way game, even if it isn't elite.

I'm not saying he is poop... just significantly overrated if you think he is a top line, ppg winger.

Yea he'll be fine his points will probably drop not being here but he'll probably end with around 65-75 depending on how their PP works out
- 668710

I mean look, there's definitely something to the fact that Kessel may see a drop, but hey, when a player plays with with better players you're likely going to see an uptick in your points.

This idea some have that Kessel is going to just fall on his face is well... dumb.

Yes, figured you would chime in...

So if he didnt get power play time and you were just looking at a guy scoring 15 goals and 31 assists and was a -19 would you say that guy was a stud who can carry a line?

Not even accounting for the fact he plays even strength with a top 15 center in the league against the second best forward and D pairs their opponents can put out. OVERRATED.
- MacPatty

You used plus/minus. You automatically lose your argument.

Love Phil but he's not an over PPG player in his career.
- 668710

Sorry...a PPG player...that's elite. He had 244 points in his last 3 seasons/246 games games with the Pens. One of those seasons being 92 points aka over a PPG season.

I wont look at the first year because it was the year every player was handicapped by Mike Johnston

I get some of the shade thrown at his 5 on 5 play and I get the way he plays make it seem like he doesnt care about D....but to call an over a PPG player overrated is a bit silly, especially knowing how important he was in the 2 B2B cups.
- MattStrat

It’s just people hating because they don’t like his style of play. They get caught up on what “effort” and “hustle” look like and if it doesn’t fit their visually representation of each, they think the guy sucks. They somehow feel validated because he got traded even though the facts are in the statistics and B2B cups where he played a huge part for 4 years in PIT.

57 ES points is a heck of a lot more than 46. So on average he scores 20% more even strength points... that's a lot! Last year Kane had what, 80 ES points? Not to mention he plays a much better two way game, even if it isn't elite.

I'm not saying he is poop... just significantly overrated if you think he is a top line, ppg winger.
- MacPatty

I mean Kessel is overrated if you think he’s a premier star in the league. I used Kane as an example because he’s in the best of the best category and Kessel compares as a next tier down guy. But when you produce significantly more than the league average for a top line RW at even strength and produce at the level you do on the PP like Kessel does, you are very firmly in the complimentary star category. That’s a really high end player that teams don’t easily overcome losing.

So you’d rather have it wasted on Sids line? Interesting thought process.
- Grinder47

where did i say "wasted on sid's line"?

Simon gives sid's line 8% more oppurtunities to score than without and 12% more high danger chances. I dont think sid and G will waste that, i think bjug and horny will.

I mean look, there's definitely something to the fact that Kessel may see a drop, but hey, when a player plays with with better players you're likely going to see an uptick in your points.

This idea some have that Kessel is going to just fall on his face is well... dumb.
- Rinosaur

Haven't heard anyone say that he was going to completely fall apart. What I did hear all year was that Kessel was an elite player who could carry a line on his own and the Pens would collapse if they traded Kessel and Malkin got hurt.

The Pens are likely to slow down a bit coming against some tougher teams the next few weeks but I think Kessel is proving in Zona he wouldn't have made much of a difference.

It’s just people hating because they don’t like his style of play. They get caught up on what “effort” and “hustle” look like and if it doesn’t fit their visually representation of each, they think the guy sucks. They somehow feel validated because he got traded even though the facts are in the statistics and B2B cups where he played a huge part for 4 years in PIT.
- j.boyd919

Thats exactly it. There is this idea that he didnt play D or back check, and truthfully I saw less of it last season, but the guy did come back and get sticks and his body in the way. He was never the strongest on the boards but that didnt stop him from disrupting the plays along them and even gaining possession while doing it.