I love analytics. And I love that you James, have made a career out of pointing to analytics that people don’t understand to make bold claims. A general comment is that most commenters simply don’t understand analytics and their rebuttals to you are ignorant and would be amusing, if they weren’t so frustrating!

With all of that said, I’m just telling you....you are messing up on your analysis that is leading to this conclusion that only elite players matter and most of the league is interchangeable. There is a little truth in that, but you make illogical jumps from that truth.

True, Soderberg is not really a 60 pt player...last year was lucky, and we should expect more than 25 points, to be honest. So you are then saying “well just about anyone can put up 25 points, so he’s interxhangeable and not worth the money”...but if you get in to advanced analytics and a little more granular in your analysis, you will see that many people gets those 25 points in soft minutes, or in bursts. Ie Duclair who will play like an all star for five games, and then disappear for 20.

Soderbergs 25 points come mostly playing against outmatched lines, starting in a Defensive position, with average line mates. But he is consistent and durable every single night, which means other guys don’t have to change their role, which brings more consistency to their games, and the whole lineup benefits. So is his point production interchangeable?? Sure. Is his impact on the game and lineup interchangeable? Absolutely not.

You really need to consider analytics around decision externalities in order to avoid falling in to some of these false conclusions!
- Dahlmanyotes

Agreed. Mr. Tanner like many doesn't know how to use analytics. Doesn't understand the team effect and how one player "falling" in his sword to speak of, helps and aids other players. An example of this was Filppula for the Flyers a couple of seasons ago. He took on a lot of the heavy lifting and freed up other players. His individual numbers weren't pretty but he was still a big reason of why the Flyers made the playoffs that season. They missed that veteran presence last season.

Another, shorter, way of making my point is to consider what makes an elite player elite. Especially when you watch a “not elite” player become “elite” when they change teams (or vice versa).

You want teams to focus on Elite players because they have the largest impact on the game. But one of the reasons players are as elite as they are and have the impact they have, is the context they are in. Of course Marner is elite...no matter what team he’s on or who he plays with. But put him on the Senators and his numbers will look different than the Leafs, because the support cast, the line mates, the system...are all better. Players like Soderberg are better than AHL players at playing system driven tough minutes which releases the Elite players to take over games.

[End Rant]