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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Holmgren, NCAA Prospects, and More
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Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 15 @ 12:47 PM ET
My concern isnt the offensive upside, I think that will continue to improve. My concern is his poor play in zone exits. As much as I like Hagg, he was one of the major contributors to the Flyers endless struggles in getting the puck out of their own zone.
- Doc_Sarcasm


They have him dumping and chipping out of the zone a lot. Playing most of the season w/ Radko Gudas, so he can't exactly take any chances.
corduroy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: “How many times is she gonna ask this f'n question?”, NT
Joined: 12.09.2006

Jul 15 @ 12:47 PM ET
So Anders Lee at 7X7 is a Absurd also?
- wcorvette


It is - but it is more justifiable for the Islanders. The NMC and Limited NTC are going to be onerous on that contract as much as Hayes' is.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jul 15 @ 12:51 PM ET
It is - but it is more justifiable for the Islanders. The NMC and Limited NTC are going to be onerous on that contract as much as Hayes' is.
- corduroy



I don't like the NMC but the league has shown us that GM's can worked around them. The Lee contract shows that the term and money Hayes received was market, FA market but market.
Doc_Sarcasm
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Should of studied Geometry
Joined: 04.28.2013

Jul 15 @ 12:53 PM ET
That was the scary part of the article, he needs a high end D to cover his flaws. At first read you are like, Ok that makes sense. Then you realize that limits the D he is playing with. Lets hope he gets a little better and the D play better as a whole.
- wcorvette



The thing that was most galling for me was when Charlie posted the Corsi (rel) numbers for the last 3 months of the season and then summed up with, "These are staggeringly poor results — particularly in February, when the Flyers somehow collected 50.88 percent of the Expected Goal share at 5-on-5 when Hagg sat on the bench and only 28.81 percent when he played. A defenseman producing these results isn’t even playable at the NHL level."

Hopefully, all those numbers just get thrown out in the wash of a bad season and are not indicative of what Hagg will become with the Flyers. But even I have to admit there is ample cause for concern.
Richieattack18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Girouxsalem
Joined: 07.13.2010

Jul 15 @ 12:54 PM ET
It is - but it is more justifiable for the Islanders. The NMC and Limited NTC are going to be onerous on that contract as much as Hayes' is.
- corduroy

Lee is also older and had a worse season on a better team while getting top pp minutes
corduroy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: “How many times is she gonna ask this f'n question?”, NT
Joined: 12.09.2006

Jul 15 @ 1:01 PM ET
Lee is also older and had a worse season on a better team while getting top pp minutes
- Richieattack18


Hence he got 100K less a year.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jul 15 @ 1:11 PM ET
Good article on Jake ...

what do we think on Jake this season? Is he slowing a little? Can he drive a line on his own? Or does he now need more help driving a line?


https://theathletic.com/1...ikely-entering-new-phase/
NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

Jul 15 @ 2:01 PM ET
Charlie O'Connor just posted an article on The Athletic discussing Hagg and his future.

TLDR version. Charlie's take is a little more bleak than I'd like.

- Doc_Sarcasm


This part:

“But we have to acknowledge the possibility advanced metrics are missing something with Hagg. After all, they’re not perfect. Maybe there is a yet-to-be-discovered reason why he has been able to produce an above-average 101.36 PDO through two full NHL seasons.”

So his partners were mainly: AMac (came back too soon from injury), Provy and Ghost (noticeable not themselves) and Gudas (did anyone really think that was going to work?) Last year was a crapshoot! At least Hagg’s offensive confidence was improving. Don’t we need to see him play with a better fit and a team not in utter crumble-state to see what we have? He could be a good 5/6 guy. At worst, a very solid 7. Patience.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jul 15 @ 2:18 PM ET
This part:

“But we have to acknowledge the possibility advanced metrics are missing something with Hagg. After all, they’re not perfect. Maybe there is a yet-to-be-discovered reason why he has been able to produce an above-average 101.36 PDO through two full NHL seasons.”

So his partners were mainly: AMac (came back too soon from injury), Provy and Ghost (noticeable not themselves) and Gudas (did anyone really think that was going to work?) Last year was a crapshoot! At least Hagg’s offensive confidence was improving. Don’t we need to see him play with a better fit and a team not in utter crumble-state to see what we have? He could be a good 5/6 guy. At worst, a very solid 7. Patience.

- NC Flyers Fan



I agree but it is concerning he needed to play with a Provy or a Ghost just be be passable. I think he will be a little better this year and so will the rest of the D
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jul 15 @ 2:19 PM ET
This part:

“But we have to acknowledge the possibility advanced metrics are missing something with Hagg. After all, they’re not perfect. Maybe there is a yet-to-be-discovered reason why he has been able to produce an above-average 101.36 PDO through two full NHL seasons.”

So his partners were mainly: AMac (came back too soon from injury), Provy and Ghost (noticeable not themselves) and Gudas (did anyone really think that was going to work?) Last year was a crapshoot! At least Hagg’s offensive confidence was improving. Don’t we need to see him play with a better fit and a team not in utter crumble-state to see what we have? He could be a good 5/6 guy. At worst, a very solid 7. Patience.

- NC Flyers Fan



What does PDO stand for?

edit: NM found it.

https://www.fearthefin.co...onal-metrics-glossary-pdo
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 15 @ 2:28 PM ET
The Flyers for a number of years, have not been a good breakout team. For a variety of reasons. Coaches who don't trust the players completely to utilize the middle of the ice on center breakouts. Forwards not in position or leaving the zone too soon. Defenseman not making the right plays and even defenseman who are not capable of making a play under certain situations so they make the safe play and chip it out. Leading to rinse and repeat defending cycle. One thing Vignuealt is known for is his breakout strategies. Rangers would kill the Flyers using quick up same side breakouts. So he's very good in that regard. The less skilled and talented a defenseman is, lacking high end puck or skating skills, the more his numbers will be affected. Also dependent on teammates. They're team numbers, not individual player numbers.
peesinwind
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: columbia, MD
Joined: 06.27.2015

Jul 15 @ 2:30 PM ET
At 27 his game is pretty much at its peak. I doubt he is going to turn into a first-team all-star. The acquisition was fine. The contract is not. The view that he is worth 7.1M a year for 7 years is absurd. Chuckie did what Chuckie does, which is build middling teams and uses assets like cap space poorly.

The defense of and the building of this player into now a top tier center, first-line center, a player who may or may not center two really good wingers or whatever you want to call it is laughable.

- corduroy


Well. That is fair. While he entering his peak it is far from being over. Players do get better while playing in their peak. He is not going to slow down at 27...or 28...or 29. He should be able to get better during these years.

I don’t see him playing over Coots but he is a solid player and can help this team at least over the next 4-5 years. He was a good score for Fletcher but he did pay high which is what it was going to cost.
bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jul 15 @ 3:20 PM ET
Nah, just pointing out that I don't think someone who stated that Haag is not a legitimate NHL player should be posting that some people don't understand something.

- MJL


My opinion on how good a player is does not equal not understanding that sometimes no1 centers on a team dont play on the first line

Actually, quite the opposite. I think Hagg is a bad player and shouldn't be on the team but I can see why he plays for the team and why coaches use him. An equivalent reaction would be me going "but you said hes a 3rd pairing defenseman why is he on the 2nd pair!" In fact, I never argued that Hayes deserved to be on the first line or that he was the teams best center. I only said I think he could fit well playing next to Giroux, which is by default the first line.

So yes. False equivalencies. And your opinion of Hagg does not trump my opinion of Hagg just because it is yours. And I dont trust your evaluation of defenseman regardless because you often claimed MacDonald was a top 4 defenseman and yet he remains without a team
bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jul 15 @ 3:22 PM ET
The thing that was most galling for me was when Charlie posted the Corsi (rel) numbers for the last 3 months of the season and then summed up with, "These are staggeringly poor results — particularly in February, when the Flyers somehow collected 50.88 percent of the Expected Goal share at 5-on-5 when Hagg sat on the bench and only 28.81 percent when he played. A defenseman producing these results isn’t even playable at the NHL level."

Hopefully, all those numbers just get thrown out in the wash of a bad season and are not indicative of what Hagg will become with the Flyers. But even I have to admit there is ample cause for concern.

- Doc_Sarcasm


Shhhhh you're not allowed to question the legitimacy of Hagg as an NHL player around here. Doesn't matter what the stats or eyes tell you
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Jul 15 @ 3:36 PM ET
stupid extension for simmons
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jul 15 @ 3:54 PM ET
stupid extension for simmons
- 2Real


170 million for a guy who couldn't hit a jump shot if his life depended upon it.
I'd love to see a player like Larry Bird's reaction to that contract.
NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

Jul 15 @ 3:58 PM ET
The Flyers for a number of years, have not been a good breakout team. For a variety of reasons. Coaches who don't trust the players completely to utilize the middle of the ice on center breakouts. Forwards not in position or leaving the zone too soon. Defenseman not making the right plays and even defenseman who are not capable of making a play under certain situations so they make the safe play and chip it out. Leading to rinse and repeat defending cycle. One thing Vignuealt is known for is his breakout strategies. Rangers would kill the Flyers using quick up same side breakouts. So he's very good in that regard. The less skilled and talented a defenseman is, lacking high end puck or skating skills, the more his numbers will be affected. Also dependent on teammates. They're team numbers, not individual player numbers.
- MJL


Let’s go AV, bring on the breakouts! If the Flyers play offensively, not so very much defense like they have been but the possession game that they have all the tools to play, everything looks different. Everyone’s stats improve, and the team wins more games.

2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Jul 15 @ 4:10 PM ET
170 million for a guy who couldn't hit a jump shot if his life depended upon it.
I'd love to see a player like Larry Bird's reaction to that contract.

- PLindbergh31

he also plays like he's 5'5"
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 15 @ 4:17 PM ET
My opinion on how good a player is does not equal not understanding that sometimes no1 centers on a team dont play on the first line

Actually, quite the opposite. I think Hagg is a bad player and shouldn't be on the team but I can see why he plays for the team and why coaches use him. An equivalent reaction would be me going "but you said hes a 3rd pairing defenseman why is he on the 2nd pair!" In fact, I never argued that Hayes deserved to be on the first line or that he was the teams best center. I only said I think he could fit well playing next to Giroux, which is by default the first line.

So yes. False equivalencies. And your opinion of Hagg does not trump my opinion of Hagg just because it is yours. And I dont trust your evaluation of defenseman regardless because you often claimed MacDonald was a top 4 defenseman and yet he remains without a team

- bulet13



Lets explain something that you don't understand. Your opinion of Haag is really irrelevant when it comes to whether or not he is a legitimate NHL player. It is an irrefutable FACT that he is a legitimate NHL player. For the simple reason that he is a hockey player, playing in the NHL and is under contract to play hockey for an NHL team.

As far as your asinine comment about MacDonald, that has nothing to do with this. I haven't offered an opinion on Haag as a player in this discussion. Only that he is in FACT an NHL player. As far as MacDonald, the facts also support that he was indeed a top 4 NHL defenseman for the majority of his career. Those hanging their hat on the fact that he is unsigned as a player at this point at 34 doesn't change or erase history. No player stays at the same level forever as a player. It's really a ridiculous argument.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 15 @ 4:18 PM ET
Shhhhh you're not allowed to question the legitimacy of Hagg as an NHL player around here. Doesn't matter what the stats or eyes tell you
- bulet13


Something else you don't seem to understand. How good of an NHL player Haag is, is a different conversation than whether he is in FACT a legitimate NHL player!
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jul 15 @ 4:37 PM ET
Something else you don't seem to understand. How good of an NHL player Haag is, is a different conversation than whether he is in FACT a legitimate NHL player!
- MJL

How good is Robert Hagg? a 5/6 guy? He's not top four. He is a bottom pairing player that I hope either gets better the next couple seasons or is phased out due to others' play. I don't see a high ceiling.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 15 @ 4:42 PM ET
How good is Robert Hagg? a 5/6 guy? He's not top four. He is a bottom pairing player that I hope either gets better the next couple seasons or is phased out due to others' play. I don't see a high ceiling.
- ClaudeFather


I agree, he is a 3rd pair NHL defenseman.
bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jul 15 @ 4:44 PM ET
Something else you don't seem to understand. How good of an NHL player Haag is, is a different conversation than whether he is in FACT a legitimate NHL player!
- MJL


Just like the other poster, you seem to be tied to the technicality of the word legitimate rather than the idea of what I was trying to convey, which is I dont believe that Hagg deserves a full time roster spot on an NHL team. If you're nitpicking about the word I used, then fine I will concede that maybe legitimate was not the best word to use. But you're arguing only on semantics. Sub useful or beneficial or good for legitimate if that makes you feel better
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jul 15 @ 4:50 PM ET
Just like the other poster, you seem to be tied to the technicality of the word legitimate rather than the idea of what I was trying to convey, which is I dont believe that Hagg deserves a full time roster spot on an NHL team. If you're nitpicking about the word I used, then fine I will concede that maybe legitimate was not the best word to use. But you're arguing only on semantics. Sub useful or beneficial or good for legitimate if that makes you feel better
- bulet13

You honestly don't think he can play on any teams third pair? That's laughable. Ask Detroit, Edmonton, or Chicago if they agree.
Richieattack18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Girouxsalem
Joined: 07.13.2010

Jul 15 @ 4:52 PM ET
There is no such thing as a third line, remember?

In what world is a difference of 23% is close? I guess if you average a 67 in school you are close to being an "A" student?

Also, his career PPG is .60. His contract year was an outlier.

- corduroy

Oh I forgot you don’t pay people based on their most recent year. That’s why simmonds got 10mil. Oh wait... 😂
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