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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Optimal forward lines for Pittsburgh, in theory
Author Message
burgh4life87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.22.2014

Jul 9 @ 1:39 PM ET
That's why I am one of the only guys on here that likes bringing in Tanev. Sure the charts are mediocre and he may not replicate last years offensive production....but two things I trust the most in evaluating new players is the former fan base and jesse marshall.

WPG fans really, really wanted to keep him. he was a fan favorite there. and Jesse hasnt written the article yet but shared some video clips where you see he just does things no one else on our current roster does. we desperately needed a tenacious forechecker.

- YouMeAndDupuis9


Yah, my issue was never his game. I like him, I advocated for him for a month. I just was absolutely baffled at the term and AAV. He will be a bottom six fan favorite for some time.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Jul 9 @ 1:57 PM ET
People will do a lot of female doging, but I think you need to have a guy like Simon with Malkin and Galchenyuk. They are going to need a constant between them and I do not see Kahun or McCann getting it done. I go with
Jake - Sid - Kahun
Galchenyuk - Malkin - Simon
McCann - Bjug - Horny
Tanev - Bleuger - ZAR

But there is a ton of flexibility in this roster and I think Sullivan likes that. He will throw out 10 different lineups by November.

- burgh4life87

I can see that top 9. I'm real concerned a group with Galchenyuk, Schultz, and potentially still JJ will get caved in so that might be a good spot for Simon's unique skills.

Check the relative on Kahun, they're actually pretty good. His raw numbers were bad because Chicago was not a good possession team. Also, even though they were his most common linemates, Kahun only played about 35-40% of the time with Toews and DeBrincat and not always together.
Murphy_Dump
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.02.2014

Jul 9 @ 2:00 PM ET
Someone mentioned in a previous blog about how Gusev was basically Plotnikov....just wanted to dispel any notion they are similar:

Gusev Last 3 KHL Seasons:

Season GP G A Pts PIM +/-
2016-17 57 24 47 71 8 33
2017-18 54 22 40 62 2 25
2018-19 62 17 65 82 58 39


Plotnikov Last 3 KHL Seasons:

Season GP G A Pts PIM +/-
2016-17 46 11 18 29 53 23
2017-18 55 16 23 39 60 20
2018-19 61 19 20 39 43 23


Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Jul 9 @ 2:02 PM ET
Think Tanev has some promise to potentially break our top-9. Has a relentless mentality to him. Hat-trick in 2018 vs. the Bs FWIW:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgKTJ6hg9mQ

- MikeyKay

The Penguins have 11 top 9 players, but only 3 who are really top 6 and they're stars. Lots of middle six talent, so someone will be on the 4th line, 2 if none are traded.

I agree, people are too quick to put Tanev on the fourth. With that contract, I'd have to imagine he starts at least on the third line.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Jul 9 @ 2:08 PM ET
This is pretty shocking...

https://public.tableau.co...es&:origin=viz_share_link

- YouMeAndDupuis9



It's not. You're giving 3 year sample to 2 players who have been with us a year or less. That's called data skewing.
You have Petts being crushed with bad numbers in Anaheim, and JJ being slightly better in prior years.

When I change it to ONLY last season. Petts > JJ.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Jul 9 @ 2:15 PM ET
This is pretty shocking...

https://public.tableau.co...es&:origin=viz_share_link

- YouMeAndDupuis9

I generally don't like those tables because the sample size is so small (19 games for Pettersson who played 84.)

But that's a pretty large sample on JJ saying he's good at zone entries and exits. Which makes me feel more secure in feeling that zone entries and exits aren't important, overall possession is.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Jul 9 @ 2:24 PM ET
I generally don't like those tables because the sample size is so small (19 games for Pettersson who played 84.)

But that's a pretty large sample on JJ saying he's good at zone entries and exits. Which makes me feel more secure in feeling that zone entries and exits aren't important, overall possession is.

- Tojo.



Try looking at just last season then. I dont know how LA or CBJ spiked up JJ's stats, but he has nothing good in his year here.
Barnaby36
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Former Orpik44
Joined: 02.22.2013

Jul 9 @ 2:42 PM ET
The Penguins have 11 top 9 players, but only 3 who are really top 6 and they're stars. Lots of middle six talent, so someone will be on the 4th line, 2 if none are traded.

I agree, people are too quick to put Tanev on the fourth. With that contract, I'd have to imagine he starts at least on the third line.

- Tojo.

I think Galchenyuk is definitely a 2nd line player at least. He's got the skills to do well with Malkin, just like Sykora did.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Jul 9 @ 2:51 PM ET
I generally don't like those tables because the sample size is so small (19 games for Pettersson who played 84.)

But that's a pretty large sample on JJ saying he's good at zone entries and exits. Which makes me feel more secure in feeling that zone entries and exits aren't important, overall possession is.

- Tojo.

Those are important but when you can’t defend the blue line or in your own zone any good qualities are completely negated.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jul 9 @ 3:07 PM ET
Yah, my issue was never his game. I like him, I advocated for him for a month. I just was absolutely baffled at the term and AAV. He will be a bottom six fan favorite for some time.
- burgh4life87


Sames.
Grinder47
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somerset, PA
Joined: 10.20.2013

Jul 9 @ 3:19 PM ET
That's why I am one of the only guys on here that likes bringing in Tanev. Sure the charts are mediocre and he may not replicate last years offensive production....but two things I trust the most in evaluating new players is the former fan base and jesse marshall.

WPG fans really, really wanted to keep him. he was a fan favorite there. and Jesse hasnt written the article yet but shared some video clips where you see he just does things no one else on our current roster does. we desperately needed a tenacious forechecker.

- YouMeAndDupuis9

It’s also funny because I’ll bet by the end of the year he isn’t in the bottom six. Crosby and Malkin need one offensive guy and a fore checker/ back checker, he’ll just checker.
Doogs
Season Ticket Holder
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh , PA
Joined: 09.16.2005

Jul 9 @ 3:31 PM ET
I generally don't like those tables because the sample size is so small (19 games for Pettersson who played 84.)

But that's a pretty large sample on JJ saying he's good at zone entries and exits. Which makes me feel more secure in feeling that zone entries and exits aren't important, overall possession is.

- Tojo.



DUDE!!! Did you just try and lay down something positive regarding JJ in this place? LMAO.

That can be a credibility kiss of death here.
joecool2931
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Rillton, PA
Joined: 09.03.2015

Jul 9 @ 3:46 PM ET
That's why I am one of the only guys on here that likes bringing in Tanev. Sure the charts are mediocre and he may not replicate last years offensive production....but two things I trust the most in evaluating new players is the former fan base and jesse marshall.

WPG fans really, really wanted to keep him. he was a fan favorite there. and Jesse hasnt written the article yet but shared some video clips where you see he just does things no one else on our current roster does. we desperately needed a tenacious forechecker.

- YouMeAndDupuis9


Bryan Rust is a tenacious forechecker, with more skill.
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

Jul 9 @ 4:01 PM ET
Bryan Rust is a tenacious forechecker, with more skill.
- joecool2931


Yeah I think Rust is a bit more skilled, Tanev is a bit more tenacious.

Tanev the Tenacious.

I don't what to lose Rust at all : /
drummer829
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.12.2010

Jul 9 @ 4:46 PM ET
I think Galchenyuk is definitely a 2nd line player at least. He's got the skills to do well with Malkin, just like Sykora did.
- Barnaby36


That fedetenko-Malkin-sykora line was such a joy to watch
MalkinCrosby
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.26.2019

Jul 9 @ 4:56 PM ET
Agreed, Tanev was his team’s 8th leading goal and point scorer so he certainly can play 3rd line minutes. I also wouldn’t mind him being the defensive conscience for the Malkin-Galchenyuk line like Hagelin was with Malkin. Tanev would give them space to work with his fast forechecking style and cause turnovers by his pressure on the opposing defenseman. Tanev could also get back on defense which is a must for whoever is placed with those two offensive first players.

I also think it is not the ideal lines when you take your best goal scorer and move him from his most productive position. That is asinine. I prefer the balanced 4 lines approach but even if I didn’t I would move Kahun and McCann in RW’s lame ideal lineup. My balanced line approach would look like this.

Guentzel-Crosby-Kahun
Tanev-Malkin-Galchenyuk
McCann-Bjugstad-Hornqvist
Simon-ZAR-Rust

Each line has someone fast enough to make Sullivan’s fast forechecking style work. If that first man in doesn’t get in quick enough to provide pressure it doesn’t work. These lines never give the opposing defenseman a break with enough talent and speed to make it miserable like 2016.

Rust is not who I would give up for the cap. That is obviously JJ and I would look to trade him with ZAR and Jarry. If we have to retain $1 million so be it. I rather do that then give one of our fastest skaters to use the maximum pressure approach. I used to like These write ups but this past year has gone down hill with insight worst than regular posters just on the message board.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Jul 9 @ 5:07 PM ET
DUDE!!! Did you just try and lay down something positive regarding JJ in this place? LMAO.

That can be a credibility kiss of death here.

- Doogs

No, I said those stats say something positive about JJ, but those stats (zone entries and exits) aren't stats I value. Don't be smearing my name by saying I said something positive about JJ!

I like using relatives for Fenwick, High Danger Chances, and expected Goals For when judging a player's possession impact.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Jul 9 @ 5:09 PM ET
Bryan Rust is a tenacious forechecker, with more skill.
- joecool2931

Debatable. Put him on the third line all year and let Tanev play over half the year with Sid and Jake and see what their numbers look like, because Rust's aren't much better.
MalkinCrosby
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.26.2019

Jul 9 @ 5:19 PM ET
I think Galchenyuk is definitely a 2nd line player at least. He's got the skills to do well with Malkin, just like Sykora did.
- Barnaby36


I read it the way you did at first also but after reading his post again it states 3 of them and the stars. I agree with you that if he meant only Crosby, Malkin, and Guentzel are top 6 forwards that would be ridiculous. Galchenyuk has been one of his teams top 3 scorers for the past 4 years. Also McCann at 22 years old just put up 19 goals. Hornqvist is good for 20+ goals every year when he plays near 75+ games. Bjugstad has also been a top 6 forward and is only 26 with a 24 goal and a 19 goal season as recent as the year before. Pens have plenty of choices for the top 6 and with all the players I just mentioned many I have for the 3rd line in my ideal lineup spreading the talent out.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Jul 9 @ 5:49 PM ET
I read it the way you did at first also but after reading his post again it states 3 of them and the stars. I agree with you that if he meant only Crosby, Malkin, and Guentzel are top 6 forwards that would be ridiculous. Galchenyuk has been one of his teams top 3 scorers for the past 4 years. Also McCann at 22 years old just put up 19 goals. Hornqvist is good for 20+ goals every year when he plays near 75+ games. Bjugstad has also been a top 6 forward and is only 26 with a 24 goal and a 19 goal season as recent as the year before. Pens have plenty of choices for the top 6 and with all the players I just mentioned many I have for the 3rd line in my ideal lineup spreading the talent out.
- MalkinCrosby

Galchenyuk has gotten a lot of PP time on bad teams, but you have to go back 4 years to find a top 6 worthy year at ES, and his scoring rates last year were the worst of our 13 current forwards an close to that the year before.

Bjugstad has been a top 6 player but wasn't last year an is probably the 3C.

McCann had 5 special teams goals and 4 empty netters, so only 10 5v5 goals. Has the talent where he could be but hasn't proven it yet.

Hornqvist's continued top 6 talent is questionable at his age after a second half slump.

Any of these guys and a few others (Rust, Kahun, Simon, Tanev, even ZAR) might put up 40 points if they got enough top 6 time, but I wouldn't call any better than a third wheel, middle six forward.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Jul 9 @ 6:04 PM ET
Pens current forwards 5v5 pts/60 last year:

Crosby 2.92
Guentzel 2.67
Malkin 2.46
Kahun 1.9
ZAR 1.82
Simon 1.72
Rust 1.7
Hornqvist 1.69
Blueger 1.54
Tanev 1.52
McCann 1.48
Bjugstad 1.37
Galchenyuk 1.26

Note some guys have better histories. Bjugstad and McCann were 2.28 and 1.9 respectively last year. Galchenyuk has broken 2, four years ago, but was only a 1.39 the previous year.
Doogs
Season Ticket Holder
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh , PA
Joined: 09.16.2005

Jul 9 @ 6:22 PM ET
No, I said those stats say something positive about JJ, but those stats (zone entries and exits) aren't stats I value. Don't be smearing my name by saying I said something positive about JJ!

I like using relatives for Fenwick, High Danger Chances, and expected Goals For when judging a player's possession impact.

- Tojo.


Phew, thank goodness you made that clear!!! Hahahaha.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Jul 9 @ 6:26 PM ET
Pens current forwards 5v5 pts/60 last year:

Crosby 2.92
Guentzel 2.67
Malkin 2.46
Kahun 1.9
ZAR 1.82
Simon 1.72
Rust 1.7
Hornqvist 1.69
Blueger 1.54
Tanev 1.52
McCann 1.48
Bjugstad 1.37
Galchenyuk 1.26

Note some guys have better histories. Bjugstad and McCann were 2.28 and 1.9 respectively last year. Galchenyuk has broken 2, four years ago, but was only a 1.39 the previous year.

- Tojo.



Woah wait... Bjug and McCann had decent sized slumps after coming here? Surprising.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Jul 9 @ 7:05 PM ET
Woah wait... Bjug and McCann had decent sized slumps after coming here? Surprising.
- Guile

I meant last year as in 2017-2018, but I guess I didn't make that clear.

Those numbers are 2018-2019 total. Bjugstad was the same in Pittsburgh an Florida. McCann was 1.59 in FLA, 1.33 in PIT. Those 7 non 5v5 goals were nice, but they really skewed people's perception of McCann's 5v5 production here.
maddog216
Season Ticket Holder
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Glenshaw, PA
Joined: 07.19.2015

Jul 9 @ 7:13 PM ET
The only thing I disagree with is Simon on the 3rd line. He's horrible and anyone who thinks he's any good is an idiot. He only gets possession numbers because he was in the top 6 way too much. I would put Tanev in his place and put Simon on the 4th line where he belongs.
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