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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Using cap hit percentage to make sense of modern UFA deals
Author Message
WSCTeton17
Joined: 07.29.2013

Jun 9 @ 2:38 PM ET
Right, what I'm saying is those guys have a lot more leverage. It's more expensive to buy out UFA years.

Murray will now be a UFA after this year so either they'd have paid more on his last deal or really have their hands tied in this negotiation.

- Tojo.

For forwards, yeah but defenders typically break out later and most goalies sign bridge deals before they breakout. Hell, Gibson signed for 3 years under $2.5MM and he had 38 wins that season. I don’t think it would have huge impacts on defenders and goalies.

Defenders I can think of off the top of my head who had issues with cap and term include Subban and Trouba. I can’t think of any others where the kid was a full on stud and deserved to be paid and with Trouba if he had the choice he would’ve bounced
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Jun 9 @ 2:51 PM ET
For forwards, yeah but defenders typically break out later and most goalies sign bridge deals before they breakout. Hell, Gibson signed for 3 years under $2.5MM and he had 38 wins that season. I don’t think it would have huge impacts on defenders and goalies.

Defenders I can think of off the top of my head who had issues with cap and term include Subban and Trouba. I can’t think of any others where the kid was a full on stud and deserved to be paid and with Trouba if he had the choice he would’ve bounced

- WSCTeton17

You might be right on defenders. Trend has been if a defender shows he can handle top 4 minutes early he gets a long-term mid-range salary on his second deal. Aside from some projected studs of course. That may be harder to do though if UFA status is closer.

Goalies I don't think do that bridge deal anymore. Those mostly work because the goalie is still under team control at the end of them.
sammy87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: CO
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jun 9 @ 3:28 PM ET
What would Skinner have returned if dealt at the TDL? Skinner is 28 and I dont think Buff will be contending if at all until he is in his early 30's. I guess Buff needs someone for Eichel....But just wondering if they would have been better off w/o signing Skinner?
chugger38
Season Ticket Holder
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Buffalo, NY
Joined: 06.19.2007

Jun 9 @ 3:49 PM ET
What would Skinner have returned if dealt at the TDL? Skinner is 28 and I dont think Buff will be contending if at all until he is in his early 30's. I guess Buff needs someone for Eichel....But just wondering if they would have been better off w/o signing Skinner?
- sammy87

Skinner just turned 27 a few weeks ago. Not sure how a late first would have been better than a very good goal scorer to flank Eichel thru his prime years.
WSCTeton17
Joined: 07.29.2013

Jun 9 @ 4:08 PM ET
Skinner just turned 27 a few weeks ago. Not sure how a late first would have been better than a very good goal scorer to flank Eichel thru his prime years.
- chugger38

For sure, plus Buffalo is going to keep that top line together and they’re looking for a top 6 winger and a 2C. They’ve been tied to Zucker but idk if they have what MN wants. My guess is once Duchene lands in Nashville, then Granlund will be sent to Buffalo or Dallas (or wherever else Hayes doesn’t go) to audition as 2C. I think Granlund in Buffalo makes a ton of sense

I could see Buffalo adding a defender plus Granlund and maybe MoJo for next year:
Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart
MoJo-Granlund-Nylander??

Certainly better than what they rolled out last year
sammy87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: CO
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jun 9 @ 4:11 PM ET
Skinner just turned 27 a few weeks ago. Not sure how a late first would have been better than a very good goal scorer to flank Eichel thru his prime years.
- chugger38


Ah, I saw him listed at 28 somewhere.....Amazign how young he is. Seems he's been around forever.
WSCTeton17
Joined: 07.29.2013

Jun 9 @ 4:23 PM ET
I guess I wouldn’t be all that surprised if Botts picked up a brand new second line and let his remaining players duke it out for the bottom 6. I could see him going after players like Miller, Tyler Johnson, Granlund, MoJo
Blackstrom2
Washington Capitals
Location: richmond, VA
Joined: 10.11.2010

Jun 9 @ 7:23 PM ET
Ah, I saw him listed at 28 somewhere.....Amazign how young he is. Seems he's been around forever.
- sammy87


I remember this draft well, and Skinner went well before he was supposed to. Carolina got some crap, but then he made the team out of his first rookie camp. Really does seem like he's been around forever.
acdc1206
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh teams suck, PA
Joined: 06.13.2007

Jun 9 @ 10:52 PM ET
madmike71
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 12.21.2006

Jun 9 @ 10:58 PM ET

- acdc1206


Yup.....fuk this game.
Barnaby36
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Former Orpik44
Joined: 02.22.2013

Jun 10 @ 7:35 AM ET
Yup.....fuk this game.
- madmike71

Damn Bruins
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Jun 10 @ 10:03 AM ET
I don't see McDavid or Matthews on the list?

Blackstrom2
Washington Capitals
Location: richmond, VA
Joined: 10.11.2010

Jun 10 @ 10:23 AM ET
I don't see McDavid or Matthews on the list?
- Garnie


"Signed as UFAs."
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jun 10 @ 10:24 AM ET
The way I look at it you can spend $9M on Skinner or a combined $12Mish on Nyquist and Zucc. Yes, both players have to want to come to your team, but my point is there are better ways to spend your money. You can also spend around $9M on Duchene and have a killer 1-2 punch down the middle.

Again, I think the amount of overpayment on Skinner isn't detrimental to the Sabres, but they could have done better. It's not a terrible contract. I just don't think it will ever feel a good contract.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Jun 10 @ 11:20 AM ET
The way I look at it you can spend $9M on Skinner or a combined $12Mish on Nyquist and Zucc. Yes, both players have to want to come to your team, but my point is there are better ways to spend your money. You can also spend around $9M on Duchene and have a killer 1-2 punch down the middle.

Again, I think the amount of overpayment on Skinner isn't detrimental to the Sabres, but they could have done better. It's not a terrible contract. I just don't think it will ever feel a good contract.

- Rinosaur

I agree it's an overpay, but just as you said, you can never guarantee who else is willing to sign with you and at what price. If you're Buffalo, right now it's doubtful anyone on the UFA market is giving you a discount. Might be a case of a bird on the hand is worth two in the bush.

At least they overspent on a core player who is young enough that most of the contract will be at his prime. Always stinks to pay a "career high" tax.
Barnaby36
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Former Orpik44
Joined: 02.22.2013

Jun 10 @ 12:06 PM ET
A COUPLE OF WILD CARDS: Based on pre-draft rumblings from analysts, Arthur Kaliyev and Anttoni Honka have scouts pretty divided. Kaliyev is one of only a few to top 50 goals in the Ontario Hockey League at 17, but there are reportedly concerns about his competitiveness. Honka is a skilled right-handed defenseman whose stock has dropped after struggling against grown men in Finland’s top pro league. They may still be up for grabs when the Penguins are finally on the clock.

WHO ELSE MIGHT BE LEFT AT 21? There should be a number of promising prospects available when the Penguins are up, though the player they pick probably won’t be ready to contribute right away. Some prospects who may make sense, if still on the board, are savvy center Ryan Suzuki, mobile blue liner Thomas Harley, productive American forward Bobby Brink and Lassi Thomson, a Finnish defender who just completed an encouraging first season in the WHL. Given how thin their farm system is, they should just pick the best skater available.

Matt Vensel: [email][email protected][/email] and Twitter
WSCTeton17
Joined: 07.29.2013

Jun 10 @ 12:35 PM ET
The way I look at it you can spend $9M on Skinner or a combined $12Mish on Nyquist and Zucc. Yes, both players have to want to come to your team, but my point is there are better ways to spend your money. You can also spend around $9M on Duchene and have a killer 1-2 punch down the middle.

Again, I think the amount of overpayment on Skinner isn't detrimental to the Sabres, but they could have done better. It's not a terrible contract. I just don't think it will ever feel a good contract.

- Rinosaur

Matthew Barnaby said the conversations with Duchene start at either 10 or 10.5 AAV, I don’t remember which. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Poile or Chayka give him 10.5-11 and then move salary out elsewhere
youarewrong
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 07.07.2010

Jun 10 @ 12:47 PM ET
Matthew Barnaby said the conversations with Duchene start at either 10 or 10.5 AAV, I don’t remember which. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Poile or Chayka give him 10.5-11 and then move salary out elsewhere
- WSCTeton17


What have we come to when Barnaby, Avery, and Keith Jones are reliable hockey sources. At least Jones was somewhat legit.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Jun 10 @ 12:51 PM ET
What have we come to when Barnaby, Avery, and Keith Jones are reliable hockey sources. At least Jones was somewhat legit.
- youarewrong

To be fair we are all currently on HockeyBuzz AKA the most reliable hockey rumor site
MacPatty
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.21.2015

Jun 10 @ 1:19 PM ET
A COUPLE OF WILD CARDS: Based on pre-draft rumblings from analysts, Arthur Kaliyev and Anttoni Honka have scouts pretty divided. Kaliyev is one of only a few to top 50 goals in the Ontario Hockey League at 17, but there are reportedly concerns about his competitiveness. Honka is a skilled right-handed defenseman whose stock has dropped after struggling against grown men in Finland’s top pro league. They may still be up for grabs when the Penguins are finally on the clock.

WHO ELSE MIGHT BE LEFT AT 21? There should be a number of promising prospects available when the Penguins are up, though the player they pick probably won’t be ready to contribute right away. Some prospects who may make sense, if still on the board, are savvy center Ryan Suzuki, mobile blue liner Thomas Harley, productive American forward Bobby Brink and Lassi Thomson, a Finnish defender who just completed an encouraging first season in the WHL. Given how thin their farm system is, they should just pick the best skater available.

Matt Vensel:

- Barnaby36[email][email protected][/email] and Twitter


Kaliev would be interesting. Peyton Krebs was expected to be a top 10 pick but just tore his Achilles being cut by a skate... if he falls to 21 he is worth taking a risk on.

Part of why I'd be cool with Kessel going out in a package with a top 15 pick coming back is that there are some really talented players there this year and it is easier than ever for guys to make the leap to the NHL at a young age.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Jun 10 @ 1:34 PM ET
A COUPLE OF WILD CARDS: Based on pre-draft rumblings from analysts, Arthur Kaliyev and Anttoni Honka have scouts pretty divided. Kaliyev is one of only a few to top 50 goals in the Ontario Hockey League at 17, but there are reportedly concerns about his competitiveness. Honka is a skilled right-handed defenseman whose stock has dropped after struggling against grown men in Finland’s top pro league. They may still be up for grabs when the Penguins are finally on the clock.

WHO ELSE MIGHT BE LEFT AT 21? There should be a number of promising prospects available when the Penguins are up, though the player they pick probably won’t be ready to contribute right away. Some prospects who may make sense, if still on the board, are savvy center Ryan Suzuki, mobile blue liner Thomas Harley, productive American forward Bobby Brink and Lassi Thomson, a Finnish defender who just completed an encouraging first season in the WHL. Given how thin their farm system is, they should just pick the best skater available.

Matt Vensel:

- Barnaby36[email][email protected][/email] and Twitter

Harley is my favorite prospect that I think might fall to us, though so far he isn't in any mocks. Hoglander is my pick that I'm fairly sure will be there. So they'll probably both be on the board and the Pens will reach for someone they fell in love with like they always seem to.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Jun 10 @ 1:34 PM ET
To be fair we are all currently on HockeyBuzz AKA the most reliable hockey rumor site
- Feds91Stammer

I'm just here for the kind and encouraging community.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jun 10 @ 1:38 PM ET
To be fair we are all currently on HockeyBuzz AKA the most reliable hockey rumor site
- Feds91Stammer


Where have you been hiding?
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Jun 10 @ 1:46 PM ET
Where have you been hiding?
- Rinosaur

Been busy getting married and moving to SC.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jun 10 @ 1:53 PM ET
Been busy getting married and moving to SC.
- Feds91Stammer


Ah, well congrats.
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