Thanks much, LBR!! Hope you are well............

Love to hear what this means to you but what jumped out to me, and please correct my where I'm off, is Byram's feet are fantastic with his ins and outs. Bad gaps. His PDO must be high with his corsi and shots% incredibly low.

No doubt Caufield needs someone to get him the puck and he's great away from it. 72 goals and can't bring the thing in............. Interesting that Cozens and Turcotte have a higher expected goals per 60 than Caufield.

Read about concerns of Cozens' vision IQ from a scout I trust who thinks Cozens may be better suited to wing. His primary assist data reinforces that.

And indeed Dach is an enigma. Off the charts on all the fancies but doesn't score. Again, IMO this guy is giving GM's the most angst of any player along with Caufield.

Think it was JD Burke, a jrs scout who uses advanced stats heavily, said along with Hughes he simply has no comparable in the fancies for Turcotte. I see that. Wow. Charts indeed show a complete 2 way player.

Those who say Zegras is the most skilled offensive player in this draft, vision/IQ/Hands, have a friend in these fancies.

Correct or add to how I'm seeing these charts and yea any fancies you have on Boqvuist would be fantastic...... Thanks a bunch, LBR.

Just started posting again very recently. I have access to some CHL and USDP data from a tracking project plus general shot numbers - below are some charts. The data is for about half a season tracked, so it's not fully complete yet.








Just to note on Caulfield, there is a lot of red but it's mostly in fields that he was not tasked to perform, particularly exit/entry tasks because he was on a line with Hughes.

I have Boqvist and Beaudin's charts as well if anyone wants them for comp with Byram. And I can look up others to see if there is data for them - just let me know.
- L_B_R

Thanks L_B_R. Since you volunteered - I would like to see Ty Smith to compare with Byram, Bouchard to compare with Boqvist and Dobson to compare with Beaudin. Get to see d-men in the same league compared with each other.

I'm watching rd 2 as closely as rd 1. Watching Beecher live I can't get the kid out of my mind. A big big strong center he's at full speed in 2-3 strides and good on his edges. Kinda kid in jrs you fear with his skating/speed/size combo he could cripple someone out there........ In interviews he mentions with Hughes and Zegras ahead of him at the C position he needed to find ways to help his TEAM. Win a draw, kill a penalty, play physical. A guy with his talent and that kinda mindset his floor is really high. Top end 3C floor who can knock people down, play at a high pace, chip in with an already NHL shot as a shutdown guy.
- Mr Ricochet

Good to see you posting more lately, too. Agree, Beecher is an attractive target for the 2nd round. Your description of him sounds a lot like Entwistle: big, strong skater, good on draws, solid on PK, physical, does whatever it takes to help the team win, puts the team ahead of personal stats, etc. Players like that will battle and are valuable in the playoffs.

Thanks much, LBR!! Hope you are well............

Love to hear what this means to you but what jumped out to me, and please correct my where I'm off, is Byram's feet are fantastic with his ins and outs. Bad gaps. His PDO must be high with his corsi and shots% incredibly low.

No doubt Caufield needs someone to get him the puck and he's great away from it. 72 goals and can't bring the thing in............. Interesting that Cozens and Turcotte have a higher expected goals per 60 than Caufield.

Read about concerns of Cozens' vision IQ from a scout I trust who thinks Cozens may be better suited to wing. His primary assist data reinforces that.

And indeed Dach is an enigma. Off the charts on all the fancies but doesn't score. Again, IMO this guy is giving GM's the most angst of any player along with Caufield.

Think it was JD Burke, a jrs scout who uses advanced stats heavily, said along with Hughes he simply has no comparable in the fancies for Turcotte. I see that. Wow. Charts indeed show a complete 2 way player.

Those who say Zegras is the most skilled offensive player in this draft, vision/IQ/Hands, have a friend in these fancies.

Correct or add to how I'm seeing these charts and yea any fancies you have on Boqvuist would be fantastic...... Thanks a bunch, LBR.
- Mr Ricochet

What PDO Byram has can't really be determined by this chart - it's missing his on-ice CF% and on-ice sv%. We can kind of guess he breaks somewhat even in terms of CF% because while his rates for are low, his shots against are above average. His own shot/60 is low because he's typically feeding others more often than shooting himself (when he does shoot, he got a high chance of scoring). Byram does rely on his skating more than his hands to make plays imo.

For xGF Turcotte/Cozens having higher xGF than Caufield, it's because that stat weighs location pretty heavy and both those guys shoot from in closer but Caufield has the best shot. Kane and now Debrincat always outscore their xGF numbers because they shoot more from mid-danger extras than in low.

Good to see you posting more lately, too. Agree, Beecher is an attractive target for the 2nd round. Your description of him sounds a lot like Entwistle: big, strong skater, good on draws, solid on PK, physical, does whatever it takes to help the team win, puts the team ahead of personal stats, etc. Players like that will battle and are valuable in the playoffs.
- AEL_Fox

When I see the U-18's live for the last 12ish yrs I get overwhelmed. I mean how do you digest when an Eichel is on the ice with Milano, Matthews, Larkin, Hanifan, Tuch at the same time??? .......... This yr with Turcotte, Hughes, Vlassic, Zegras, Caufield, Boldy on the ice my eyes always looked for Beecher. Not saying this will or won't carry over to the NHL but Beecher's size/speed/skill/effort is so so impressive. He gets that huge frame up to speed in a couple strides, is in balance doing so and destroys when he hits.

Another kid who is undervalued IMO do to his having a team first mentality is Dman Ryan Johnson. Most had him rd 2 but his USHL playoffs have some slotting him late rd 1. ..... Head up, effortless skater who takes the opposition's top line and gives up the 1st unit PP so he's fresh. Won his team a cup. ........ Always thought that when I saw him, he gives up scoring minutes to help his team, then the beat writer for the Stampede verified that.

Thanks L_B_R. Since you volunteered - I would like to see Ty Smith to compare with Byram, Bouchard to compare with Boqvist and Dobson to compare with Beaudin. Get to see d-men in the same league compared with each other.
- EbonyRaptor

Boqvist and Beaudin are a page back but here are Smith, Bouchard, and Dobson. Just to remember when looking at these, they're quick snapshots of players and role/usage does impact them. Good starting point for comp but always good to dig deeper (like with all stats). I personally don't know enough about most of the teams to go too deep myself - know more about London than any just cause I followed Boqvist more last year.

Boqvist and Beaudin are a page back but here are Smith, Bouchard, and Dobson. Just to remember when looking at these, they're quick snapshots of players and role/usage does impact them. Good starting point for comp but always good to dig deeper (like with all stats). I personally don't know enough about most of the teams to go too deep myself - know more about London than any just cause I followed Boqvist more last year.




- L_B_R

Thanks again L_B_R. It's nice to have you back.

What PDO Byram has can't really be determined by this chart - it's missing his on-ice CF% and on-ice sv%. We can kind of guess he breaks somewhat even in terms of CF% because while his rates for are low, his shots against are above average. His own shot/60 is low because he's typically feeding others more often than shooting himself (when he does shoot, he got a high chance of scoring). Byram does rely on his skating more than his hands to make plays imo.

For xGF Turcotte/Cozens having higher xGF than Caufield, it's because that stat weighs location pretty heavy and both those guys shoot from in closer but Caufield has the best shot. Kane and now Debrincat always outscore their xGF numbers because they shoot more from mid-danger extras than in low.
- L_B_R

Yes, it was a guess on my part just from shots from the chart as to PDO. But no guessing on his feet or ability to get it out and in. Byram's chart ain't all that impressive without context, agree?

And yes the charts reinforce the eye test. Caufield is not scoring dirty goals, shooting from the dots, carrying it in but has a wicked NHL shot. That shot beats USHL/NCAA goalies, will it beat NHL goalies is the question GM's in the top 10 are asking?

Like the balance of Cozens' chart and Turcotte is simply off the charts.

As Gus got going after Q was booted the eye test showed me he and Boqvist are very similar players. Of course Boqvist is far from a finished product but do the fancies back up my eye test that as of now Bovquist and Gus are similar players?

When I see the U-18's live for the last 12ish yrs I get overwhelmed. I mean how do you digest when an Eichel is on the ice with Milano, Matthews, Larkin, Hanifan, Tuch at the same time??? .......... This yr with Turcotte, Hughes, Vlassic, Zegras, Caufield, Boldy on the ice my eyes always looked for Beecher. Not saying this will or won't carry over to the NHL but Beecher's size/speed/skill/effort is so so impressive. He gets that huge frame up to speed in a couple strides, is in balance doing so and destroys when he hits.

Another kid who is undervalued IMO do to his having a team first mentality is Dman Ryan Johnson. Most had him rd 2 but his USHL playoffs have some slotting him late rd 1. ..... Head up, effortless skater who takes the opposition's top line and gives up the 1st unit PP so he's fresh. Won his team a cup. ........ Always thought that when I saw him, he gives up scoring minutes to help his team, then the beat writer for the Stampede verified that.
- Mr Ricochet

Yeah, have read some good stuff on Johnson who has also been taken in the high 20's in some mock drafts.

I know comparables need to be taken with a grain of salt and they tend to reference playing style rather than performance ceiling at the NHL level but I have seen Beecher's comparable as Kesler and Johnson's as Letang.

Other 2nd round hopefuls that I have been eyeing are Vlasic, Rees, Tracey, Afanasyev, Foote, and Donovan.

Damn I love that Dobson last yr, today and tomorrow (although I wanted Wahlstrom and if it was a Dman Dobson). Smith is off the charts. ..... Interesting how most every Jrs Dman's chart shows the difficulty they have controlling entries against....... Indeed they are ALL a work in progress.

Yeah, have read some good stuff on Johnson who has also been taken in the high 20's in some mock drafts.

I know comparables need to be taken with a grain of salt and they tend to reference playing style rather than performance ceiling at the NHL level but I have seen Beecher's comparable as Kesler and Johnson's as Letang.

Other 2nd round hopefuls that I have been eyeing are Vlasic, Rees, Tracey, Afanasyev, Foote, and Donovan.
- AEL_Fox

Beecher is not as skilled as Kesler but plays heavier, is stronger, bigger and faster. No doubt Kesler is a top 6 NHLer but for me there is for Beecher. I see Beecher as a sure 3C (floor) possible elite 3C less chance a 2C.

I'd have to think about a comparable for Johnson, maybe a smaller Bouwmeester or a kind of Brady Skjei. Still say Skjei is as good a USHL skater as I've seen in 12 yrs. Johnson's skating is fantastic but not in Skjei's league but IMO Johnsoon is more skilled, poised, higher offensive ceiling, probably better IQ........... Letang however is probably a top 10 on earth puck mover in his day and more skilled. I see Boqvist a better comparable to Letang than Johnson.. I see a floor, maybe even ceiling, as a top 4 for Johnson.

Afanysyev the Cossack. Saw him live 5-6 times, on film 30 (love the Muskegon team he played on). Quite the package. Think Panik. Big player, NHL shot, ++ skater, ++ skill, softer hands, better puck skills, dynamic, not sure if he has better IQ but like any big player like Panik can they be consistent? ....... Hawks' Hakarainnen was his center this yr and they had great chemistry.

Gotta check out. For anyone needing to smell an arena, see future 1st, 2nd rd NHL picks the Steel are having their final camp tryout day today at Fox Valley Ice Arena. They whittled down from 100 players to a final 40, the allstar game starts at 4:30. In from Canada, Sveden, Finland to earn a spot in the USHL...........

Thanks so much for all your help, LBR.

Yes, it was a guess on my part just from shots from the chart as to PDO. But no guessing on his feet or ability to get it out and in. Byram's chart ain't all that impressive without context, agree?

And yes the charts reinforce the eye test. Caufield is not scoring dirty goals, shooting from the dots, carrying it in but has a wicked NHL shot. That shot beats USHL/NCAA goalies, will it beat NHL goalies is the question GM's in the top 10 are asking?

Like the balance of Cozens' chart and Turcotte is simply off the charts.

As Gus got going after Q was booted the eye test showed me he and Boqvist are very similar players. Of course Boqvist is far from a finished product but do the fancies back up my eye test that as of now Bovquist and Gus are similar players?
- Mr Ricochet

I think Byram's chart is pretty strong on individual skills for a d-man. He's great in transition, his playmaking ability is strong, and he's decent at shot suppression. There are also key areas to work on such as shooting more and preventing players from entering the zone. It might be hard for me to view his chart without context because I've seen a lot of his video and game, I like how he reads plays offensively and defensively on a whole, and think if the Hawks were to pick him, he'll be good for them decently soon. I think the latter could be applied to a few of the forwards too, though.

As for Gus and Boqvist being similar in style, sure. Both are in that line of Karlsson/Klingberg style of d-men where they're great skaters, good hockey vision, rely on hands a lot in the OZ, positioning rather than physicality, etc. Boqvist's ceiling is higher than Gus, though, because while I think they're pretty on par rn now Boqvist is showing development/improvement at a faster rate. Boqvist might already have better vision but it's hard to compare since one is in juniors and the other is in the NHL.

I think Byram's chart is pretty strong on individual skills for a d-man. He's great in transition, his playmaking ability is strong, and he's decent at shot suppression. There are also key areas to work on such as shooting more and preventing players from entering the zone. It might be hard for me to view his chart without context because I've seen a lot of his video and game, I like how he reads plays offensively and defensively on a whole, and think if the Hawks were to pick him, he'll be good for them decently soon. I think the latter could be applied to a few of the forwards too, though.

As for Gus and Boqvist being similar in style, sure. Both are in that line of Karlsson/Klingberg style of d-men where they're great skaters, good hockey vision, rely on hands a lot in the OZ, positioning rather than physicality, etc. Boqvist's ceiling is higher than Gus, though, because while I think they're pretty on par rn now Boqvist is showing development/improvement at a faster rate. Boqvist might already have better vision but it's hard to compare since one is in juniors and the other is in the NHL.
- L_B_R

Could you give a brief description of "entries", "exits", and "entry defense".

Could you give a brief description of "entries", "exits", and "entry defense".
- EbonyRaptor

Entry/exit stats are quantifying the skater’s ability to enter the OZ with the puck or exiting the DZ with the puck; they can be broken down into the rate at which they attempt, their success rate with possession, relative to their teammates, etc. These are the primary tracking stats for transition play for all skating players (forwards and d-men) and are useful when discussing components of neutral zone play of players.

Entry defense, a stat specifically for d-men, is meant to measure a player’s ability to prevent the opposition from entering their offensive zone when they are the primary target on entry. It's meant to quantify how much a defender protects their blueline from a entry attempt (pass or carry) - broken down into attempts against with contract overall or relative to team, entries they prevented or broke-up, how often they are targeted, etc.

Entry/exit stats are quantifying the skater’s ability to enter the OZ with the puck or exiting the DZ with the puck; they can be broken down into the rate at which they attempt, their success rate with possession, relative to their teammates, etc. These are the primary tracking stats for transition play for all skating players (forwards and d-men) and are useful when discussing components of neutral zone play of players.

Entry defense, a stat specifically for d-men, is meant to measure a player’s ability to prevent the opposition from entering their offensive zone when they are the primary target on entry. It's meant to quantify how much a defender protects their blueline from a entry attempt (pass or carry) - broken down into attempts against with contract overall or relative to team, entries they prevented or broke-up, how often they are targeted, etc.
- L_B_R

That helps. Thanks again.

Why the flip of Cozens and Turcotte at #3, Wiz? New news or just a feel? ........Think Cozens has the IQ/vision to be a top 6 C in the NHL?..... Looked at film on Dach, good God. To work the edges like he does at his size, have that kind of vision/IQ and soft hands he's become the guy IMO that will cause GM's the most angst in the whole draft. If he were consistent zero doubt a top 3 or higher........ A dominant #1 C or a 3C enigma.
- Mr Ricochet

I am just playing with the mock...I now understand that at this time of year, I see each and every site and expert doing it to boost internet site hits and decided to start having fun.
Am I affected by the nbcsportschicago / Comcast talking heads or the Kelley interview / conversations?
No Are they simply answers of the questions those bozos are asking based on their true lack of a shortened list? Maybe Kelley will answer all questions praising each and every candidate because the add a layer of misdirection.
Tuen the athletic sports guys have continued the Turcotte barrage siting Turcotte as a Cup winner type...here is my dilemma:
This was a generational year in the WHL , in that there is an unheard of amount of EXCELLENT high end draftees AND a huge group of developmental guys that really point upward as pros. Rare in most recent dub drat groups.
So it is VERY DIFFICULT for me to see both Cozens and Dach as lesser llights in terms of the USHL USA group....
And like you I can’t disengage from the two whl big boy centers no matter how much you tell me the entire USA team including Boldy who imo, can look as ordinary as impactful game to game.
Can we rate the USHL goalies vs the whl goalies as the criteria on how these elite scorers are ABLE to pick corners?
And I understand that Turcotte IS the new “nhl Big” which includes some heavy bottom anchor, thick lower body and super quick agile feet/hands.
I just haven’t decided all the little nuances of all around game that I see Cozens has in place already, and just don’t see the mock drops that Dach and Cozens have incurred based on the elevations others have been granted. Even on my own! To think Dach or Cozen last to 7 or 8 is unheard of.

Beecher is not as skilled as Kesler but plays heavier, is stronger, bigger and faster. No doubt Kesler is a top 6 NHLer but for me there is for Beecher. I see Beecher as a sure 3C (floor) possible elite 3C less chance a 2C.
- Mr Ricochet

If I remember correctly Ryan Kesler was projected as a defensive forward and with limited offensive potential in his draft year back in 2003. But he still managed to score over 70 points two times in regular season and had once 41 goals. Kesler peaked between 2009-2011 when he had those numbers but other than that he had pretty average point totals.

The way you describe Beecher sounds pretty good to me!

Entry defense, a stat specifically for d-men, is meant to measure a player’s ability to prevent the opposition from entering their offensive zone when they are the primary target on entry. It's meant to quantify how much a defender protects their blueline from a entry attempt (pass or carry) - broken down into attempts against with contract overall or relative to team, entries they prevented or broke-up, how often they are targeted, etc.
- L_B_R

So if I understand - "entry defense" is a good analytic to use to assess how well a d-man defends his d-zone. Here are the "entry defense" stats:

Byram: 98/53
Boqvist: 29/72
Beaudin: 51/78
Bouchard: 13/22
Smith: 99/60
Dobson: 75/45

Based on that analytic - Smith and Byram were far superior at defending their blue line than the other 4 and it should be noted that Byram is a year behind the other 5 who all played their D+1 seasons.

Bo Byram all the way.

So if I understand - "entry defense" is a good analytic to use to assess how well a d-man defends his d-zone. Here are the "entry defense" stats:

Byram: 98/53
Boqvist: 29/72
Beaudin: 51/78
Bouchard: 13/22
Smith: 99/60
Dobson: 75/45

Based on that analytic - Smith and Byram were far superior at defending their blue line than the other 4 and it should be noted that Byram is a year behind the other 5 who all played their D+1 seasons.

Bo Byram all the way.
- EbonyRaptor

I really have little interest in comparing any defenders “defensive progress” until it is against NHL attackers.

But, I AM VERY INTERESTED in gauging how well Byram puck carrying zone entries against WHL juniors and see those stats (and if they are matched against drafted hawk defenders Jokiharju and Boqvist in their respective league, even better.)

So if I understand - "entry defense" is a good analytic to use to assess how well a d-man defends his d-zone. Here are the "entry defense" stats:

Byram: 98/53
Boqvist: 29/72
Beaudin: 51/78
Bouchard: 13/22
Smith: 99/60
Dobson: 75/45

Based on that analytic - Smith and Byram were far superior at defending their blue line than the other 4 and it should be noted that Byram is a year behind the other 5 who all played their D+1 seasons.

Bo Byram all the way.
- EbonyRaptor

So the 1st number is carry in against rel% and the 2nd is carry in prevention rel%.

Just exactly what do those terms mean?

If preventing an offensive player from entering the zone is important, shouldn't the higher of the 2nd number be more important in which Byram ranks 4 of 6.

Thanks in advance for any explanations.

I am just playing with the mock...I now understand that at this time of year, I see each and every site and expert doing it to boost internet site hits and decided to start having fun.
Am I affected by the nbcsportschicago / Comcast talking heads or the Kelley interview / conversations?
No Are they simply answers of the questions those bozos are asking based on their true lack of a shortened list? Maybe Kelley will answer all questions praising each and every candidate because the add a layer of misdirection.
Tuen the athletic sports guys have continued the Turcotte barrage siting Turcotte as a Cup winner type...here is my dilemma:
This was a generational year in the WHL , in that there is an unheard of amount of EXCELLENT high end draftees AND a huge group of developmental guys that really point upward as pros. Rare in most recent dub drat groups.
So it is VERY DIFFICULT for me to see both Cozens and Dach as lesser llights in terms of the USHL USA group...]/b].
And like you I can’t disengage from the two whl big boy centers no matter how much you tell me the entire USA team including Boldy who imo, can look as ordinary as impactful game to game.
Can we rate the USHL goalies vs the whl goalies as the criteria on how these elite scorers are ABLE to pick corners?
And I understand that Turcotte IS the new “nhl Big” which includes some heavy bottom anchor, thick lower body and super quick agile feet/hands.
I just haven’t decided all the little nuances of all around game that I see Cozens has in place already, and just don’t see the mock drops that Dach and Cozens have incurred based on the elevations others have been granted. Even on my own! To think Dach or Cozen last to 7 or 8 is unheard of.
- wiz1901

Do I understand the blackened? That as much praise as a Turcotte or Zegras get out of the NTDP nationally that it's hard for you to see them ahead of Dach and Cozens? .........

I'm near positive you know this but wanna make sure. Up until this or last yr Major Junior banned ALL European goalies for the last 5-6 yrs. Reason being they wanted Canadian kids to get those minutes. Well those goalies that didn't go to the CHL went to the USHL and for 5 yrs the USHL goaltending was off the charts. That has changed now that Euro goalies can now go to the CHL...... Now the USHL goaltending took a hit but by no means is it bad. They still get Euro goalies, in fact at 4:30 today I'll see this kid tryout for the Steel from a top team straight out of the SuperElit League: https://www.eliteprospect...ayer/295082/victor-ostman

One more thing now. The 18's play a 30 game USHL schedule, the other games are international and vs NCAA. So the numbers a Hughes puts up is only half vs the USHL and those goalies. Important notation. Look at the 18's schedule this yr. Beasts, U of Michigan, U of MN, Notre Dame, UMD, Boston U, monster programs: https://www.usahockeyntdp.../3756022?subseason=526408

I have to admit I was late to the Dach film, but good Lord what a skill/size/skating package. Pronman quoted one scout as saying "you can talk about physicality all you want but only a handful of players in the world (including the NHL) have his combination of skating/size/skill/vision/IQ. Watching film i agree but why is he only putting up 70 points on a good team?

And Cozens man can flat out fly and is big. Not a tricky sort but gets his points driving the net as LBR's charts show.

If I remember correctly Ryan Kesler was projected as a defensive forward and with limited offensive potential in his draft year back in 2003. But he still managed to score over 70 points two times in regular season and had once 41 goals. Kesler peaked between 2009-2011 when he had those numbers but other than that he had pretty average point totals.

The way you describe Beecher sounds pretty good to me!
- MjulQvist

Was hoping to see you before the draft. You always have a great handle on Euro kids. Any thoughts on them is appreciated.

Agreed Kesler is by no means a points guy but an effective 2 way guy with lots of intangibles. That said he's still s skilled guy, has the feet and hands to play east-west.

Not much on Beecher but here is some film that IMO does not do his size/speed justice but you can see he plays north-south, pucks in, pucks at the goalie and how smooth his stride is for a guy 6ft 4in 205 lbs as an 18 yr old.

Vs Dubuque who made the playoffs, owned by 2 MN Wild owners, Peter Chiarelli, sent Montgomery to the NCAA to win a championship at Denver and then to the Dallas Stars bench. A cornerstone USHL franchise........... Macielli plays for DBQ , slotted to go rd 2 this yr.

Shift by shift of Beecher: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXRsmCv4cIE

So the 1st number is carry in against rel% and the 2nd is carry in prevention rel%.

Just exactly what do those terms mean?

If preventing an offensive player from entering the zone is important, shouldn't the higher of the 2nd number be more important in which Byram ranks 4 of 6.

Thanks in advance for any explanations.
- boilermaker100

Controlled entry prevention shows % of controlled entries player breaks up (as a direct result of a player's actions). Carry-in against shows % of entry attempts against that with control.

Controlled entry prevention shows % of controlled entries player breaks up (as a direct result of a player's actions). Carry-in against shows % of entry attempts against that with control.
- L_B_R

Thanks L_B_R. Welcome back BTW.