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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: The draft lottery is objectively bad and should be replaced
Author Message
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Apr 10 @ 2:13 PM ET
The problem with this gold plan is, what if a team truly sucks? If a team gets eliminated With 12-15 games left , but actually tries to win and only win say 3 games the rest of the season, for 6 points. Another team gets eliminated with 5 games to go because they are a decent team in a tough division. They win 4 of their last 5 and jump the really crappy team. Doesn’t seem fair to me. Or am getting the plan wrong?
- chazpet

If a team truly sucked they would be eliminated way earlier than that.

Wild Card structure eliminates the division concerns.

Your concerns are valid but a little misguided.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Apr 10 @ 2:14 PM ET
What were the financial issued caused by?
- jmatchett383

I'd say it was a little of both. Payroll disparities were terrible at that point so lots of teams had to sell off their stars. Pens owners weren't willing to match the big spenders.

But we definitely tanked for Malkin or Ovechkin, as did the Caps who decided to give their AHL goalie a long look to decide if they would keep him.

Crosby was luck. The other high picks, they stunk. Sadly they even went in a spending spree the year they got Staal, but bought mostly past prime players. Some people bring up Letang, but he wasn't a 1st rounder, that was just a great pick.

leafsfann
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Joined: 05.11.2014

Apr 10 @ 2:15 PM ET
So eliminate the draft and let players sign as UFAs coming into the league.. coming from a Penguins blogger?

You realize that if it wasn't for ping pong balls, luck, and the draft that Sid would have never signed in Pittsburgh back in those dark days, right? This franchise would have probably continued to rot away and eventually relocate.

The draft gives bad teams an avenue to improve. This lottery system exists to not make tanking a sure thing. The only real losers are teams that deal their firsts and don't contend,and there is nothing the league can do to correct that.
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

Apr 10 @ 2:17 PM ET
I'd say it was a little of both. Payroll disparities were terrible at that point so lots of teams had to sell off their stars. Pens owners weren't willing to match the big spenders.

But we definitely tanked for Malkin or Ovechkin, as did the Caps who decided to give their AHL goalie a long look to decide if they would keep him.

Crosby was luck. The other high picks, they stunk. Sadly they even went in a spending spree the year they got Staal, but bought mostly past prime players. Some people bring up Letang, but he wasn't a 1st rounder, that was just a great pick.

- Tojo.


Yup...3rd rounder in same draft as Sid. Insane to get them both in same draft haha.

EDIT: Thanks Craig Patrick
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Apr 10 @ 2:17 PM ET
So eliminate the draft and let players sign as UFAs coming into the league.. coming from a Penguins blogger?

You realize that if it wasn't for ping pong balls, luck, and the draft that Sid would have never signed in Pittsburgh back in those dark days, right? This franchise would have probably continued to rot away and eventually relocate.

The draft gives bad teams an avenue to improve. This lottery system exists to not make tanking a sure thing. The only real losers are teams that deal their firsts and don't contend,and there is nothing the league can do to correct that.

- leafsfann

The cap system does negate the true need for a draft for talent dispersion.
Emperor Filonius
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Drinking the tears of the defeated from Lord Stanley's chalice.
Joined: 01.18.2007

Apr 10 @ 2:21 PM ET
You sure about that?
- Feds91Stammer


The Rangers have missed the past 2 years, and finished 4th the year prior to that. I'd say that's lousy.
The Devils have missed the playoffs 6 out of the last 7 years and when they made it 2 years ago they lost in the first round. I'd say that's lousy.

The one change I would make to the lottery is only allow the bottom 5 teams be eligible to actually win it. Tanking doesn't bother me. It's a management strategy, so be it.
madmike71
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 12.21.2006

Apr 10 @ 2:22 PM ET
The cap system does negate the true need for a draft for talent dispersion.
- Feds91Stammer


To some degree, yes. Still, I doubt you'd ever see a generational player in some of these markets which would suck for a good portion of the league.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Apr 10 @ 2:25 PM ET
Oh? Can you give me a link to the inside scoop? I didnt see that one yesterday
- Guile


https://twitter.com/pensi.../1115640123188752384?s=21

pens4life-66
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: BC
Joined: 10.01.2013

Apr 10 @ 2:26 PM ET
The cap system does negate the true need for a draft for talent dispersion.
- Feds91Stammer


I feel very bad for the player that willingly signs in Edmonton or Buffalo and has 4 or 5 other offers from teams that would be close in salary numbers. Unless it just makes Edmonton and Buffalo have to pay more which seems to be counter productive...
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Apr 10 @ 2:27 PM ET
So eliminate the draft and let players sign as UFAs coming into the league.. coming from a Penguins blogger?

You realize that if it wasn't for ping pong balls, luck, and the draft that Sid would have never signed in Pittsburgh back in those dark days, right? This franchise would have probably continued to rot away and eventually relocate.

The draft gives bad teams an avenue to improve. This lottery system exists to not make tanking a sure thing. The only real losers are teams that deal their firsts and don't contend,and there is nothing the league can do to correct that.

- leafsfann


It’s almost like people can accept that the Pens benefitted from a system but also wish to improve upon said system. Holy Christ. Imagine that. Progression? Woah. Who wants that?
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Apr 10 @ 2:28 PM ET
I feel very bad for the player that willingly signs in Edmonton or Buffalo and has 4 or 5 other offers from teams that would be close in salary numbers. Unless it just makes Edmonton and Buffalo have to pay more which seems to be counter productive...
- pens4life-66

It would change the entire cap dynamic because you would do away with ELCs which could allow for a more competitive UFA market as well. Not saying its a good idea just nowhere near as people believe.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Apr 10 @ 2:29 PM ET
The Rangers have missed the past 2 years, and finished 4th the year prior to that. I'd say that's lousy.
The Devils have missed the playoffs 6 out of the last 7 years and when they made it 2 years ago they lost in the first round. I'd say that's lousy.

The one change I would make to the lottery is only allow the bottom 5 teams be eligible to actually win it. Tanking doesn't bother me. It's a management strategy, so be it.

- Emperor Filonius

Fair enough.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Apr 10 @ 2:30 PM ET
https://twitter.com/pensinsidescoop/status/1115640123188752384?s=21
- j.boyd919



Well okay then... thank you
leafsfann
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Joined: 05.11.2014

Apr 10 @ 2:30 PM ET
To some degree, yes. Still, I doubt you'd ever see a generational player in some of these markets which would suck for a good portion of the league.
- madmike71


You could probably lump at least a third of the league into that category. Here I am defending the draft when the team I root for would be one of the biggest benefactors of no draft, to a blogger of a team that Jim Balsillie tried to aggressively relocate.
Emperor Filonius
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Drinking the tears of the defeated from Lord Stanley's chalice.
Joined: 01.18.2007

Apr 10 @ 2:30 PM ET
To some degree, yes. Still, I doubt you'd ever see a generational player in some of these markets which would suck for a good portion of the league.
- madmike71


People forget that the Penguins did not make the playoffs for Mario's first 4 seasons and that they missed 5 of his first 6. The Penguins were a lousy organization right up until they finally got lucky/smart and hired Craig Patrick.

Edmonton has lots of the same problems the Penguins had and the thought that McDavid is being "wasted" sucks, but no one put a gun to his head and made him sign his big $$ extension in 2017. He had been there long enough to know what he was getting into.
iworkatinitech
Joined: 11.12.2014

Apr 10 @ 2:31 PM ET
Yohe tweeted JJ is likely the odd man out if Dumo returns!!!! Praise him!
- burgh4life87

Mackey (with a grain of salt) echoed this sentiment.
Itsjustarash
Vancouver Canucks
Location: BC
Joined: 08.29.2013

Apr 10 @ 2:32 PM ET
I'm fine with the lottery if only the top spot is available. And the teams with the best odds should be the last place team obviously. The next five teams with the same odds, and the next five after that with the same odds and the last five with the same odds.
last place-50%
2-6th place - 25%
7-11th place - 15%
12-16th place - 10%
Obviously after Seattle gets into the league will there be 16 teams missing the dance.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Apr 10 @ 2:34 PM ET
He's trying to say the fans suck.
- madmike71


Not at all. I think the fans are wonderful and very supportive.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Apr 10 @ 2:34 PM ET
I'm fine with the lottery if only the top spot is available. And the teams with the best odds should be the last place team obviously. The next five teams with the same odds, and the next five after that with the same odds and the last five with the same odds.
last place-50%
2-6th place - 25%
7-11th place - 15%
12-16th place - 10%
Obviously after Seattle gets into the league will there be 16 teams missing the dance.

- Itsjustarash

I think your math is off. How can 5 teams have a 25% chance?
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Apr 10 @ 2:35 PM ET
I'll still remain skeptical. Its ~70 games late if they bench him.
- Guile

If we had been fully healthy all season I’d agree with you but after we traded Oleksiak, Johnson has been close to our sixth best defenseman for large chunks of the season due to injuries. Riikola is worse. Trotman is an AHL call up. I think Ruhwedel is better but you’re picking between meh and bad at that point and of course the tie is going to go to the guy with #gritness snd pedigree
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Apr 10 @ 2:35 PM ET
So they emulated the PHI model.
- Feds91Stammer


Flyers were never on the verge of bankruptcy or relocation.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Apr 10 @ 2:37 PM ET
Flyers were never on the verge of bankruptcy or relocation.
- jmatchett383

Was a fans suck joke...
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Apr 10 @ 2:37 PM ET
Was a fans suck joke...
- Feds91Stammer


Oh, Philly has poopty fans. Loyal as hell, but poopty.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Apr 10 @ 2:38 PM ET
If we had been fully healthy all season I’d agree with you but after we traded Oleksiak, Johnson has been close to our sixth best defenseman for large chunks of the season due to injuries. Riikola is worse. Trotman is an AHL call up. I think Ruhwedel is better but you’re picking between meh and bad at that point and of course the tie is going to go to the guy with #gritness snd pedigree
- Victoro311



I'll prepare the GritBoners chart if JJ plays tonight
Itsjustarash
Vancouver Canucks
Location: BC
Joined: 08.29.2013

Apr 10 @ 2:47 PM ET
I think your math is off. How can 5 teams have a 25% chance?
- Feds91Stammer

Give them the same amount of winning combos just like how Vegas got the 3rd best odds like the 3rd place team got in 2017
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