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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Hawks Get Lucky, Now Pick #3
Author Message
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Apr 11 @ 9:29 PM ET
My assumption is that Stan's plan is to try to win the Cup within the next 3 to 4 tears - i.e. within the T&K window. Maybe T&K will still be playing at an elite level beyond 4 years but it's unrealistic to expect that. If that assumption is correct, then I hope and expect Stan to go "all in" to try to achieve that objective. The question then is what is the best way to use the #3 pick - what is the best "all in" move to make.

First, the "all in" plan prioritizes short term (3-4 years) over long term (5+ years) which means that the best use of the #3 pick is to get a player or players that are online by year 2 and contributing by year 3. If Cozens or Podkolzin or Byram or any of the other guys in the conversation can meet that criteria then maybe the best "all in" move is to draft that player. However, if it is certain not one of those guys can meet that criteria - then trading the pick for a player or players ready to contribute now may be the best "all in" use of the #3 pick.

- EbonyRaptor


That's well thought out.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Apr 11 @ 9:35 PM ET
My assumption is that Stan's plan is to try to win the Cup within the next 3 to 4 tears - i.e. within the T&K window. Maybe T&K will still be playing at an elite level beyond 4 years but it's unrealistic to expect that. If that assumption is correct, then I hope and expect Stan to go "all in" to try to achieve that objective. The question then is what is the best way to use the #3 pick - what is the best "all in" move to make.

First, the "all in" plan prioritizes short term (3-4 years) over long term (5+ years) which means that the best use of the #3 pick is to get a player or players that are online by year 2 and contributing by year 3. If Cozens or Podkolzin or Byram or any of the other guys in the conversation can meet that criteria then maybe the best "all in" move is to draft that player. However, if it is certain not one of those guys can meet that criteria - then trading the pick for a player or players ready to contribute now may be the best "all in" use of the #3 pick.

- EbonyRaptor


Your reasoning appears to be the leading choice at least on this board. The safe way is, indeed, an approach which you cannot paint wrong. Covering team needs and being competitive the sooner the better is never going to be a bad way to build when it comes to drafting wisely.

The other approach dies deserve a look and is worthy of strong consideration. Ultimately this other appriach is not the better choice for two reasons which jave not really been expounded.

When you are able to select the Russian then you are possibly setting up for a different attack and strategy. Rolling over four descent scoring lines with two very good units is whatvyou get with Cosenzd drvrlopment complete. What you mifht get with thevrusdiannis the extraordinary one teo punch. That would be to be determined if ever as prolific in a comparison. how the.Penguins use Crosby and Malkin usually on seperate lines.

Maybe you think of the russian more like .Hossa so you group Toews/Russian and Kane/? as top two lines. Wow if that puts Strome with DeBrincat on another line. And we have a lot of kids like Entwhistle, Kurasev, Barrett whom look like sparkplugs on bottom line. Re Johnson and Hagel are goingbto be heard from.as well.

So you see the way one too offensive skill guy can impact. More skill with compete than.the Cosenz - he is more stronger compete and offense is not extraordinary like the russian possess

Now when you draft Cozens however maybe just maybe Bowman starts to acceot he has to use early picks too on compete physical players. Which might ooen the door to more of those on bottom lines

Just trying to highlight a few things we haven't touched on really on this board. So much for going after the best skill guy always, eh
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Apr 11 @ 10:05 PM ET
My assumption is that Stan's plan is to try to win the Cup within the next 3 to 4 tears - i.e. within the T&K window. Maybe T&K will still be playing at an elite level beyond 4 years but it's unrealistic to expect that. If that assumption is correct, then I hope and expect Stan to go "all in" to try to achieve that objective. The question then is what is the best way to use the #3 pick - what is the best "all in" move to make.

First, the "all in" plan prioritizes short term (3-4 years) over long term (5+ years) which means that the best use of the #3 pick is to get a player or players that are online by year 2 and contributing by year 3. If Cozens or Podkolzin or Byram or any of the other guys in the conversation can meet that criteria then maybe the best "all in" move is to draft that player. However, if it is certain not one of those guys can meet that criteria - then trading the pick for a player or players ready to contribute now may be the best "all in" use of the #3 pick.

- EbonyRaptor


tl;dr
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Apr 11 @ 10:37 PM ET
Interesting no team has won a SC without a former SC winner on the roster, i don't know how far back this goes, but the only team in the playoffs that doesn't have one former SC winner on its roster are the Bolts
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Apr 11 @ 10:51 PM ET
Interesting no team has won a SC without a former SC winner on the roster, i don't know how far back this goes, but the only team in the playoffs that doesn't have one former SC winner on its roster are the Bolts
- BetweenTheDots


Irrelevant stat though this series

Ridiculously high amount of talented scorers and many put up points this past regular season. Even a little used bottom line forward on Tampa, A Earne, has a scoring background in Quebec juniors.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Apr 11 @ 10:56 PM ET
Which team has the better offense, Avalanche or Flames? By saying better, could Flames be deeper but even Johnny hockey is outdone when Avalanche puts their top three scorers together (all are supposedly healthy and returning for playoff game .one tonight)

Well you might consider that M Smith is capable of allowing Avalanche offense to appear better?
pdx2ord
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Portland, OR
Joined: 09.02.2015

Apr 11 @ 11:17 PM ET
Coach Q talks briefly about his time in Chicago. I will admit I will be doing this
When they roll his welcome home video. Just like I did with Sharpy’s.

https://twitter.com/nbcsb.../1116538345704886272?s=21
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Apr 11 @ 11:20 PM ET
Interesting that only 2 of the #3 picks in the last 10 drafts played immediately in the NHL - Duchene in 2009/10 and Kotkaniemi 2018/19. It is the exception rather than the rule. However, of the 8 other #3 picks, 7 of them played at least part of their D+2 years. Based on those statistics, it's very likely the #3 pick in this draft will spend at least part of the 2020/21 season in the NHL. The only exception may be Podkolzin because it seems likely that if he doesn't come to N.A. for the 2019/20, he'll probably finish out his KHL contract making the 2021/22 season the earliest he would come over ... and then he would be dealing with new language, new culture, new ice rink, new everything. In other words he probably wouldn't be ready to contribute in a significant way.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Apr 11 @ 11:37 PM ET
Coach Q talks briefly about his time in Chicago. I will admit I will be doing this
When they roll his welcome home video. Just like I did with Sharpy’s.

https://twitter.com/nbcsb.../1116538345704886272?s=21

- pdx2ord

He is the enemy now. So he falls into the (frank) him category.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Apr 11 @ 11:38 PM ET
Interesting that only 2 of the #3 picks in the last 10 drafts played immediately in the NHL - Duchene in 2009/10 and Kotkaniemi 2018/19. It is the exception rather than the rule. However, of the 8 other #3 picks, 7 of them played at least part of their D+2 years. Based on those statistics, it's very likely the #3 pick in this draft will spend at least part of the 2020/21 season in the NHL. The only exception may be Podkolzin because it seems likely that if he doesn't come to N.A. for the 2019/20, he'll probably finish out his KHL contract making the 2021/22 season the earliest he would come over ... and then he would be dealing with new language, new culture, new ice rink, new everything. In other words he probably wouldn't be ready to contribute in a significant way.
- EbonyRaptor

You are never going to make it to the draft at this point.
Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Apr 11 @ 11:52 PM ET
Interesting that only 2 of the #3 picks in the last 10 drafts played immediately in the NHL - Duchene in 2009/10 and Kotkaniemi 2018/19. It is the exception rather than the rule. However, of the 8 other #3 picks, 7 of them played at least part of their D+2 years. Based on those statistics, it's very likely the #3 pick in this draft will spend at least part of the 2020/21 season in the NHL. The only exception may be Podkolzin because it seems likely that if he doesn't come to N.A. for the 2019/20, he'll probably finish out his KHL contract making the 2021/22 season the earliest he would come over ... and then he would be dealing with new language, new culture, new ice rink, new everything. In other words he probably wouldn't be ready to contribute in a significant way.
- EbonyRaptor

I don’t want the Russian.
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Apr 12 @ 12:04 AM ET
You are never going to make it to the draft at this point.
- Elbows15


I know, right? There's like more than 2 months to go. Mercy!
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Apr 12 @ 12:07 AM ET
Ian Mitchell’s season is over, DU lost 4-3 in OT. Let the speculation begin, will he sign or pull a Hayes?
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Apr 12 @ 12:22 AM ET
I'm not Wiz but I'm qualified to insert my 2 cents IMO.

Cozens by far has the higher ceiling.

I don't know if anyone remembers hockeyfutures prospect rating/grading system but I would give Cozens a "9.5 D" rating, and I would give Kakko a "9.0 B" rating.

I may be inclined to give Cozens a "10.0 F" rating but that would be a bit redundant.

- Savard2Secord


I might be inclined to agree IF at this point THIS season, after playing 75 games this season (playoffs included) he had at least 40 goals.
Using Mark Schiefele who played in a tougher OHA he also "only" had 22 goals and 75 points are an equal, you see Mrk didn't come into his own until two more seasons in the OHL.
Kakko can already get loose from contact and has an exceptional shot, besides solid playmaking skills too. And these REAL scouts see Kakko as a guy who will play soon.

I understand your thinking as I said before if an organization thinks one guy available at three is the true talent, no matter where the rest of us rummies have them in our precious list rankings, that organization HAS to go with their gut on it.

But the real reason is that you cited HockeyFuture where eons ago I ran the Hawk page, well this week I went there to attempt to check a NHL team's depth at a position and was shocked that almost every team site had horsecrap grades, evaluations and most had bad grades for "PROSPECTS" presently fixtures on NHL teams and are presently difference makers, hardly D and C graded guys.

I know the discussion thread still smart viewers with good opinions, but have the twins brothers that own it just let it stay in disrepair since the let Shane Malloy, me and other "go?"
Or are there idiots on each team site actually thinking folks will read their thoughts and come back?
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Apr 12 @ 12:37 AM ET
Ian Mitchell’s season is over, DU lost 4-3 in OT. Let the speculation begin, will he sign or pull a Hayes?
- DarthKane

He will sign. He would still have 2 seasons at DU if he decides to go back, tho.
All indications are he will sign if offered a contract. Keith is one of his hockey idols.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Apr 12 @ 1:50 AM ET
He will sign. He would still have 2 seasons at DU if he decides to go back, tho.
All indications are he will sign if offered a contract. Keith is one of his hockey idols.

- Elbows15


You are about as optimistic as Darth Kane is sarcastic!
Hockey brothers seperated at birth....er um ..seperated when the first puck each season is dropped in the glorious faceoff circle.

No sense getting too high or too low about Mitchell. Though I bet he could play regularly in Chicago very soon. I do not believe that Hillman is automatically a possible pairing. Hillman has hit a wall in development. He may be a depth or 6th dman one day but he has to become really good AHL first. He sounds like he is just ok and not reallt improving much. But all young players need time and opportunity. Hillman needs to advance in his development.
busmaster
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 08.06.2010

Apr 12 @ 1:54 AM ET
This might sound completely wrong, but it looks to me like defense is more about scheme and less about personnel. Islanders have the lowest GAA in the league and they were a dumpster fire a year ago before Trotz.

Q had Gus’s butt stapled to the bench for two years and Colliton came in and took the reigns off and he had a career year. But of course, at the expense of real defense.

Hawks flip a switch with 10-15 games remaining and started playing 2-1 games instead of 5-4 games and Kane suddenly stopped scoring.

Just my two cents.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Apr 12 @ 5:05 AM ET
This might sound completely wrong, but it looks to me like defense is more about scheme and less about personnel. Islanders have the lowest GAA in the league and they were a dumpster fire a year ago before Trotz.

Q had Gus’s butt stapled to the bench for two years and Colliton came in and took the reigns off and he had a career year. But of course, at the expense of real defense.

Hawks flip a switch with 10-15 games remaining and started playing 2-1 games instead of 5-4 games and Kane suddenly stopped scoring.

Just my two cents.

- busmaster


Of course strict implementation of a system or even players buying in no matter nearly any system and there you see it...tangible results....your sample Trotz NYI

I would have to dig deep to find where talent was so great that it trumped a system. The best talent playing together on a team still has some concept of "team" and not total helter skelter. Colliton's Blackhawks early part of their streak, however, was an example of a careless defensive effort and it was true more or less team wide. The forwards made life more difficukt for their dmen by giving not enough support.

On Kane, though, he was worn down and later suffered injury (which he played through)

The post seadon news presser included voices stating that it would be a different ballgame for the players in their defensive responsibilities come training camp. We all await this changeover with caution but hopefully everyone enthusiastickly grasps and abides.
SC116
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 08.29.2015

Apr 12 @ 7:30 AM ET
How much of a problem is it that Podkolzin‘s already signed to play in Russia through 2020/21?
- walleyeb1


Slim to none -- there is no agreement between the NHL and KHL any longer - so my guess is that the potential for the biggest pay day is going to the main driver.


vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Apr 12 @ 7:31 AM ET
Ian Mitchell’s season is over, DU lost 4-3 in OT. Let the speculation begin, will he sign or pull a Hayes?
- DarthKane


He's only a sophomore
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Apr 12 @ 7:35 AM ET
Slim to none -- there is no agreement between the NHL and KHL any longer - so my guess is that the potential for the biggest pay day is going to the main driver.
- SC116


Craig Button made some comment about him the other night that he has either info or maybe it was just his opinion, "that there is no doubt that he will be in the NHL next year".

What is everyone's opinion (Ogi not withstanding) of the pick if you were guaranteed that he would be over here next year?
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Apr 12 @ 8:03 AM ET
He's only a sophomore
- vabeachbear



I know... but that won't stop the debate that he won't sign and will go the free agent route eventually. That has already been discussed here.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Apr 12 @ 8:21 AM ET
My assumption is that Stan's plan is to try to win the Cup within the next 3 to 4 tears - i.e. within the T&K window. Maybe T&K will still be playing at an elite level beyond 4 years but it's unrealistic to expect that. If that assumption is correct, then I hope and expect Stan to go "all in" to try to achieve that objective. The question then is what is the best way to use the #3 pick - what is the best "all in" move to make.

First, the "all in" plan prioritizes short term (3-4 years) over long term (5+ years) which means that the best use of the #3 pick is to get a player or players that are online by year 2 and contributing by year 3. If Cozens or Podkolzin or Byram or any of the other guys in the conversation can meet that criteria then maybe the best "all in" move is to draft that player. However, if it is certain not one of those guys can meet that criteria - then trading the pick for a player or players ready to contribute now may be the best "all in" use of the #3 pick.

- EbonyRaptor


Great post.
Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Apr 12 @ 8:34 AM ET
Craig Button made some comment about him the other night that he has either info or maybe it was just his opinion, "that there is no doubt that he will be in the NHL next year".

What is everyone's opinion (Ogi not withstanding) of the pick if you were guaranteed that he would be over here next year?

- vabeachbear

Even if he’s here next year, there’s no guarantee he’ll be here the year after that. That’s the rub.

-The KHL is the only league that has teams willing and able to match the $ of the NHL.
-He is currently property of the richest team in the KHL.
-If at any time he doesn’t like something about the way he’s being treated here, be it money, playing time, etc...there will always be the threat that he could take his puck and go home.
-The geopolitical relationship between the US and Russia could go sour at any moment.

He could be the greatest right wing to ever come out of Russia, but I don’t follow the prospects closely enough to have a real opinion of him as a player. I just don’t like the added built in risk associated with drafting a Russian at 3 overall. If we’re talking about taking a flyer on a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round I’d have no issue with it, but it just feels too risky to me. Can’t afford to waste this pick. Plus, in general, I’d always give higher priority to drafting Centers or D’s over a wing.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Apr 12 @ 8:39 AM ET
Anyone check on Paul today? He's gonna have a tough day at work after the Leaves ran wild on the Bruins.
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