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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Hawks Get Lucky, Now Pick #3
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Savard2Secord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Round Lake, IL
Joined: 12.12.2016

Apr 11 @ 5:28 PM ET
If the Hawks need someone ready to be an impact now, then they need to make a trade. The #3 pick might end up being ready sooner rather than later, but there is no guarantee how close they will be. Until they get a player in camp/preseason it can be really difficult to tell. Even if they get someone that can make the jump, how much impact they will actually make can be really unclear. Most players, even top picks are not near 100% of the player they will be in the first couple seasons in the NHL.

I don't think we should look at the draft as a way to get a quick fix. Is it possible? Yes. Is it predictable? Not exactly. I know what you are saying, but the team has to be about more than one draft pick. They (The Hawks and the fans) can't put expectations on a new kid that they need him that badly. The Hawks have to work on filling the holes with guys who more are developed and keep this #3 as a guy who "might" be a pleasant surprise in the next year or two or three.

- breadbag


Well no GM in their right mind in the situation the Hawks are in would trade that 3rd overall pick for anything less than massive overpayment.... I mean there aren't many players in the league I would trade that pick for when you factor in contracts, because any player that is worth the pick already has a significant contract.

For one - at #3 the Hawks can get an NHL ready player, Hughes, Kakko and Podkolzin are NHL ready... Now don't forget that Bowman has plenty of cap space to go out and sign UFA's this summer, so the Hawks immediate needs will be addressed that way, not by trading away a 3rd overall pick, a potential elite or franchise player.

Also, lets not forget whomever Bowman drafts with that pick will not only be a great player but will also be a cost controlled player for many years - at least 6 years so that is a bonus from a salary cap perspective..

The way I look at it is that the Hawks basically just got a young top 6 forward for absolutely nothing who will have almost zero impact on the salary cap. So Bowman can go forward and still target the UFA's he intends to target while knowing that one of the issues he needed to address via free agency is no longer an issue. I mean nothing is certain with any player but there is a very high chance whomever Bowman drafts will be a star player if not elite player, so that has to take some pressure off of Bowman when he goes shopping July 1st... And I'm not saying Bowman isn't going to go out and not sign a top 6 forward, I mean I believe he will, however I think his job just became a bit easier knowing that he has an ace in his back pocket..

I mean who knows? perhaps Bowman will now focus most of his attention on defense depending on who the Hawks draft and how far they think their pick is away from making the NHL....
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Apr 11 @ 5:31 PM ET
In theory all could play in the NHL next season, it just wouldn't be best for their development.

(Interesting and important stuff deleted for clarity)
.

- Savard2Secord


Then if it would be best for their development to be in Rockford next season (or with their junior teams), that's where they should be.

The Hawks (all teams) need complete players - a problem with the hard salary cap is that teams are now pressing young, undeveloped players into the NHL too quickly - hurting their growth, the Hawks' growth, and ultimately the players careers.

RedRevenge
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 04.18.2017

Apr 11 @ 5:35 PM ET
Sorry if this has been said before, but I think they have to trade this pick.

Either a package to move up for Kakko or a package to move down for a current top-4 d-man and/or top 6 F.

I would prefer the latter scenario.

The 'hawks need to win in the next couple of years which means they'll need proven commodities. It might hurt in the long run, but at some point they are going to have to rebuild. Not yet though.

- CanOCorn


If the Hawks need a top 6 F, then we should just sign one in the off season. No reason to trade the #3 pick for one.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Apr 11 @ 5:43 PM ET
Well no GM in their right mind in the situation the Hawks are in would trade that 3rd overall pick for anything less than massive overpayment.... I mean there aren't many players in the league I would trade that pick for when you factor in contracts, because any player that is worth the pick already has a significant contract.

For one - at #3 the Hawks can get an NHL ready player, Hughes, Kakko and Podkolzin are NHL ready... Now don't forget that Bowman has plenty of cap space to go out and sign UFA's this summer, so the Hawks immediate needs will be addressed that way, not by trading away a 3rd overall pick, a potential elite or franchise player.

Also, lets not forget whomever Bowman drafts with that pick will not only be a great player but will also be a cost controlled player for many years - at least 6 years so that is a bonus from a salary cap perspective..

The way I look at it is that the Hawks basically just got a young top 6 forward for absolutely nothing who will have almost zero impact on the salary cap. So Bowman can go forward and still target the UFA's he intends to target while knowing that one of the issues he needed to address via free agency is no longer an issue. I mean nothing is certain with any player but there is a very high chance whomever Bowman drafts will be a star player if not elite player, so that has to take some pressure off of Bowman when he goes shopping July 1st... And I'm not saying Bowman isn't going to go out and not sign a top 6 forward, I mean I believe he will, however I think his job just became a bit easier knowing that he has an ace in his back pocket..

I mean who knows? perhaps Bowman will now focus most of his attention on defense depending on who the Hawks draft and how far they think their pick is away from making the NHL....

- Savard2Secord


I didn't mean trading the #3 pick specifically, just that it is likely the best way to close some gaps in the immediate term. I.e. trading to get NHL ready talent that is actually ready. The term NHL ready is nice and everything, but the proof will be on the ice. Being on an NHL roster as a young player is also great, but to be a real impact to a team, these guys are usually in year 2 or 3 or more before that is reality.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Apr 11 @ 5:50 PM ET
Not going to quote S2S post for brevity but just because Turcotte is committed to Wisconsin doesn't mean he is going to stay for 2-4 years. So that wouldn't dissuade be from picking him if I have him ranked 3rd.

Concerning Podkolzin. He isn't ready for the NHL. Trying to acclimate while trying to play at the NHL level would be too big of a hurdle for the kid.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Apr 11 @ 5:57 PM ET
Not going to quote S2S post for brevity but just because Turcotte is committed to Wisconsin doesn't mean he is going to stay for 2-4 years. So that wouldn't dissuade be from picking him if I have him ranked 3rd.

Concerning Podkolzin. He isn't ready for the NHL. Trying to acclimate while trying to play at the NHL level would be too big of a hurdle for the kid.

- Elbows15


That;s exactly why they Blackhawks need to draft Cole Caufield.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Apr 11 @ 5:59 PM ET
Hughes isn't the surefire consensus first overall pick, especially considering what the other players in the top 10 of this draft have to offer.

Hughes is not a complete player and he has several deficiencies, such as his size, his 2-way game and the fact he can be bumped off the puck quite easily. And I think some of those flaws may scare teams away from taking him in favor of Kakko or Podkolzin. Sure Kakko and Podkolzin don't possess the natural talent Hughes has, however both are offensively above average and both are "complete" players and both have size on their side..

I mean look at Alex DeBrincat, he slipped to the 2nd round (as do many smaller players).. Had DeBrincat been 5 inches taller and 40 pounds heaver he would have been a top 5 pick, but he slipped to to his size, and I could see the same happening with Hughes - mind you he's not going to slip outside of the top 10 but I could see him falling into the Hawks lap...

IMO, if Hughes doesn't go #1 he will fall to the Hawks because I can't see the Rangers drafting a player like Hughes. Kakko and Podkolzin are the type of players the Rangers like. The Rangers have always favored the bigger physical power forward type players so, if New Jersey passes on Hughes, the Rangers will most likely end up with Podkolzin (unless NJ takes him) which means Hughes would be a Blackhawk.

Either way tho, I would be thrilled with Hughes, Kakko or Podkolzin and any of the 3 could make an immediate impact on this team.

I will say that Hughes would be the best fit for the Hawks given his deficiencies. Hughes reminds me a lot of Patrick Kane at his age and I think the vets on the Hawks could really help Hughes round out his 2-way game, however offensively Hughes would be huge for the Hawks.. Not only that but Toews is a few years away from becoming our 3rd line center and the Hawks really need a guy to fill that first line center role, and any of these centers will fit the bill, so no matter who the Hawks grab at #3 will certainly be our future 1st line center. But for now I think a line of Hughes, Strome and DeBrincat would be mind-boggling... I would say toss the kid on the Toews/Kane line but that would be redundant considering Hughes is very similar to Kane, so it would make more sense playing him on the 2nd line.

So yea, I think it's possible that Hughes slips to the Hawks and my primary reason for considering it a possibility is because teams have shown us time and time again (and they never learn) that they don't like or want smaller players and it's always these smaller skilled players that slip... And if he doesn't slip it's because of his natural talent. I mean Hughes does have the same natural talent that Kane, Crosby or McDavid etc has, and sometimes you just cant pass that up because that skill cant be taught or learned - you have it or you don't.

- Savard2Secord


If he was 5 inches taller and 40lbs heavier, he probably wouldn't be anywhere as good as he is now
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Apr 11 @ 6:11 PM ET
If the Hawks need someone ready to be an impact now, then they need to make a trade. The #3 pick might end up being ready sooner rather than later, but there is no guarantee how close they will be. Until they get a player in camp/preseason it can be really difficult to tell. Even if they get someone that can make the jump, how much impact they will actually make can be really unclear. Most players, even top picks are not near 100% of the player they will be in the first couple seasons in the NHL.

I don't think we should look at the draft as a way to get a quick fix. Is it possible? Yes. Is it predictable? Not exactly. I know what you are saying, but the team has to be about more than one draft pick. They (The Hawks and the fans) can't put expectations on a new kid that they need him that badly. The Hawks have to work on filling the holes with guys who more are developed and keep this #3 as a guy who "might" be a pleasant surprise in the next year or two or three.

- breadbag

Excellent post. Generally, use the #3 pick to get the best player available and develop him at the most appropriate pace in whichever level/league is best.

I would rather go the Toews route where the #3 pick plays another season in juniors, Europe, or the minors, then see where he is at a year later and have him be a significant contributor right out of the gate as a rookie instead of throw him in to the NHL and have him go through growing pains for 1-2 years before he is a game changer (or ruining him completely).

If immediate help is needed for 2019-20, no matter at forward or defense or in net, then use trades, free agency, and existing prospects signed on for Rockford next season.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Apr 11 @ 6:11 PM ET
I didn't mean trading the #3 pick specifically, just that it is likely the best way to close some gaps in the immediate term. I.e. trading to get NHL ready talent that is actually ready. The term NHL ready is nice and everything, but the proof will be on the ice. Being on an NHL roster as a young player is also great, but to be a real impact to a team, these guys are usually in year 2 or 3 or more before that is reality.
- breadbag

Another good post.
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Apr 11 @ 6:34 PM ET
Excellent post. Generally, use the #3 pick to get the best player available and develop him at the most appropriate pace in whichever level/league is best.

I would rather go the Toews route where the #3 pick plays another season in juniors, Europe, or the minors, then see where he is at a year later and have him be a significant contributor right out of the gate as a rookie instead of throw him in to the NHL and have him go through growing pains for 1-2 years before he is a game changer (or ruining him completely).

If immediate help is needed for 2019-20, no matter at forward or defense or in net, then use trades, free agency, and existing prospects signed on for Rockford next season.

- AEL_Fox




In the Toews example the Hawks knew they were going to be horsepoop for at least another year so I don't think they wanted him to play and get crushed game after game so they told him to stay in school for that 2nd year.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Apr 11 @ 6:35 PM ET
At 6-foot-0, 193 pounds, Byram is a supremely gifted skater and can take over a game at any moment. He's a minutes eater and can play effectively in all three zones. If the Blackhawks are looking to add to their pipeline of defensemen, he's the best in this class.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Apr 11 @ 6:53 PM ET
In theory all could play in the NHL next season, it just wouldn't be best for their development.

Hughes, Kakko and Podkolzin are absolutely ready to play in the NHL and IMO the NHL is the appropriate league for their development. But it may be best for Podkolzin to maybe play another year across the pond tho, just to be safe. I mean you don't want to hurt these kids confidence by throwing them into the fire - but I don't know any of these kids personalities or how they approach the game mentally so I'm not qualified to say from a mental er psychological perspective that starting them in the NHL is a good idea. But I can say from a skill level and a talent level Hughes, Kakko and Podkolzin are NHL ready..

Cozens on the other hand is a totally different situation... His upside is huge, and I have compared him to a "poor mans Connor McDavid" (for right now), and for Cozens to really live up to his potential he's going to need development and work hard on his game, because unlike McDavid he doesn't have that natural talent - but I think if he works hard on his game he could be a similar to Connor McDavid - now don't get me wrong - I'm not saying he will be a McDavid clone but he could be very similar... McDavid unlike Cozens has the "it factor", the natural ability to effortlessly make dynamic plays in high traffic situations which makes NHL hockey look easy -- Cozens doesn't have that natural ability - at least not on the same level of McDavid,Kane, Crosby etc but interestingly enough I think he's good enough to play in the NHL now, but my concern there is that playing him in the NHL immediately may stunt his development, so instead of Cozens becoming an "elite" player he may turn out to be an above average skilled player... My personal opinion on Cozens is that another year of development and hard work will allow him to take his game to the next level and further build his confidence... So he's a tricky situation. If you want him to be the player he can be then you give him time to develop his game and get more comfortable with the type of player he is, but if you need him now then you certainly insert him into the lineup this fall but I think that could potentially hurt his growth.

At the same time tho, if Cozens was drafted by the Hawks he would be playing with some elite players and that can only help his development..

I suppose my point is that Cozens could be a better than he already is which is mind-boggling when you think about it.

I mean Cozens makes hockey look easy and the junior level but you gotta remember that the NHL is the best league in the world and some players that are used to dominating in juniors can have their confidence shattered in the NHL because they wont always get away with the same plays and overall game they use to dominate in juniors and that can frustrate some kids. And some kids can adjust their game to the NHL and others can't and I think with a kid like Cozens - he has flaws in his game that can potentially and probably will be exposed by NHL players at the NHL level and it's only because he doesn't have that "natural ability" that some players have.

Also, a lot of his success is based on his speed, and at the NHL level he's going to have to learn how to break through defenseman and find open space which is difficult at the NHL level because these are the best players in the world.

But overall I really like Cozens, and he wouldn't be a bad pick at all but do you use a 3rd overall pick on him?... I mean Kakko and Podkolzin are excellent players, they have the size, the hockey sense, the shot and the 2-way game to be very effective at the NHL level, and Hughes doesn't have the size and doesn't have the 2-way game but he does have generational offensive talent and hockey sense, but the thing is - you can teach a kid like Hughes how to play a 2 way game however what you cant teach is his hockey sense and overall generational talent with the puck..

And Turcotte is a great player too, however he's committed to Wisconsin so he's 2-4 years away from suiting up for an NHL franchise and in my opinion I would prefer it if Bowman drafted a kid that is ready now... And also, in 2-4 years will Turcotte be as good as Kakko, Podkolzin, Hughes or Cozens at that point? because in 2-4 years a couple of those kids will have already adjusted to the NHL, they'll know what's expected of them and they'll know how to play in the NHL while Turcotte will just be stepping into the NHL, and it will take him a little bit of time to get the hang of it.. But let me point out that the NCAA is fantastic at developing players and it's a lot more similar to professional hockey than the CHL, so it's not like Turcotte has nothing to learn playing NCAA hockey... And not to get too far off topic but I think it's unfortunate that some players coming out of juniors already dominate in juniors but they're not good enough to play in the NHL and they cant go to the AHL so they're basically stuck spending another year padding their stats in the CHL not developing at all because they're not being challenged, and when you're not being challenged there is nothing to really improve on or learn because everything you do works, and that can be bad for a player because all of a sudden the game becomes "easy" to them and by the time they finally get the opportunity to play against players that are more on their level their game falls apart because their game and style almost becomes habit... Of course that doesn't apply to all players but many highly touted prospects careers were cut short for that very reason...

So with Turcotte going the NCAA route I think it will be good for his development because he will be competing with and against guys that are on the same level, not only that but older and physically and more mature mentally... So with Turcotte the real question is, do you want to wait 2-4 years? and for me that's a no, not when you have the 3rd overall pick and there are players available that are just as good as not better than Turcotte. I think Turcotte will be excellent for a team that's rebuilding tho, and that's not the Hawks.

- Savard2Secord



How much of a problem is it that Podkolzin‘s already signed to play in Russia through 2020/21?
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Apr 11 @ 6:59 PM ET
How much of a problem is it that Podkolzin‘s already signed to play in Russia through 2020/21?
- walleyeb1

He will not be a Blackhawk. A team with loads of talent already who can afford to wait and run the risk of him not being available for 3 or 4 years will pick him.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Apr 11 @ 7:01 PM ET
In the Toews example the Hawks knew they were going to be horsepoop for at least another year so I don't think they wanted him to play and get crushed game after game so they told him to stay in school for that 2nd year.
- 6628

That's a good point that did cross my mind. Definitely a factor to consider.
SoftServe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 01.19.2016

Apr 11 @ 7:09 PM ET
Not going to quote S2S post for brevity but just because Turcotte is committed to Wisconsin doesn't mean he is going to stay for 2-4 years. So that wouldn't dissuade be from picking him if I have him ranked 3rd.

Concerning Podkolzin. He isn't ready for the NHL. Trying to acclimate while trying to play at the NHL level would be too big of a hurdle for the kid.

- Elbows15


If Elbow's says it's too big of a hurdle, it's too big of a hurdle and Podkolzin should just quit hockey !
RedRevenge
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 04.18.2017

Apr 11 @ 7:28 PM ET
Nylander already making his presence known .
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Apr 11 @ 7:37 PM ET
Nylander already making his presence known .
- RedRevenge

Gardiner is back to playing afraid.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Apr 11 @ 7:47 PM ET
If Elbow's says it's too big of a hurdle, it's too big of a hurdle and Podkolzin should just quit hockey !
- SoftServe

Yeah, cause that is what I said.
PREDX1
Nashville Predators
Location: Rock City, TN
Joined: 10.05.2011

Apr 11 @ 7:52 PM ET
Query: how many cups has the Hawks won?
when was the hawks last sc?
Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Apr 11 @ 7:54 PM ET
Yeah, cause that is what I said.
- Elbows15

I don’t care if he’s the next Ovie, I really don’t want the Russian.
Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Apr 11 @ 7:55 PM ET
Query: how many cups has the Hawks won?
when was the hawks last sc?

- PREDX1

Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Apr 11 @ 7:56 PM ET
Query: how many cups has the Hawks won?
when was the hawks last sc?

- PREDX1

Shouldn't you be designing a new banner?
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Apr 11 @ 7:57 PM ET
I don’t care if he’s the next Ovie, I really don’t want the Russian.
- Ogilthorpe2

If Kelley think he is the best choice at 3, I trust his judgement.


I want Turcotte. Nice thing is there about 10 players who I am fine with them taking at 3.
BGKarras
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 06.19.2012

Apr 11 @ 7:59 PM ET
Query: how many cups has the Hawks won?
when was the hawks last sc?

- PREDX1

It's obvious that you are bored. Shouldn't you be attending the banner ceremony for Central Division Chumps
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Apr 11 @ 8:00 PM ET
There’s a bad goal let in by Marazik.
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