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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: The Season Winds Down
Author Message
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Apr 1 @ 1:57 PM ET
Which makes it abundantly clear why Panarian will never return.
- riozzo


Panarin is going to be the new King of New York City. I'm excited to watch a line of Panarin-Zibanejad-Chytill
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Apr 1 @ 1:59 PM ET
If the Hawks get 0 points out of the final 4 games, they can possibly go as low (high?) in the draft lottery to 6th. Kirby Dach sounds like a nice addition to the Organization at #6 overall


Hawks will get a lottery ball to drop in the top 3 either way

- EnzoD


They'd only remain at 6 if no team under them got into the top 3. Of course, they're getting #2.
glennjpawlak22
Joined: 11.26.2013

Apr 1 @ 1:59 PM ET
If the Hawks get 0 points out of the final 4 games, they can possibly go as low (high?) in the draft lottery to 6th. Kirby Dach sounds like a nice addition to the Organization at #6 overall


Hawks will get a lottery ball to drop in the top 3 either way

- EnzoD


only bottom 6 get a lottery ball? or all teams that do not make the tournament get a lottery ball?
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Apr 1 @ 2:02 PM ET
Well....there's a bunch of variables and unknowns there. Like, who will pan out, and who won't. Also a couple factual nits. Crow and Gus are UFA after next season. Boqvist won't be an RFA yet because his contract will slide. Same with Beaudin. Sikura, Perlini and Kampf are RFA this summer, and none will get a sizeable raise. Same with Forsling and Kookoo. That doesn't hurt the cap, it helps.

Your point that signing an old guy to a long-term, high money deal will cause problems down the road. To me, that's good. I don't think those things help very often. But the have room to put together a solid 4th line and get a 2nd pairing guy. So, I don't see cap hell, unless all the players turn out to be really good, which is a good problem.

- mohel


Exactly. ROTR never factors in they are signing players along the way and that there is pretty much no way that they'll need to sign double digit position players and a goalie or two all at the same time.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Apr 1 @ 2:04 PM ET
Panarin is going to be the new King of New York City. I'm excited to watch a line of Panarin-Zibanejad-Chytill
- EnzoD

Panarin-Zibanejad-Chytill sounds like a new line of high-priced pharmaceuticals. Top 6 forwards lines:

Panarin-Zibanejad-Chytill
Latuda-Zoloft-Xanax
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Apr 1 @ 2:04 PM ET
Cap projection for 2020-21 season will illustrate position the Hawks are in:

2018-19 cap is $79.5MM
2019-20 cap at $82MM (based upon NHL office estimate - 3% increase)
2020-21 cap at $84.5MM (based upon historical 3% bump)

$84.5MM budget

$21MMM - 19/88
$14MM - 12/17 (I'm assuming that will be about what they sign for)
$12.3MM - 2/7
$6MM - 20
$4.55MM - 15
$3.85MM - 5

$61.7MM committed leaves $22.8MM to fill two goalie spots and fourteen remaining roster spots. Avg spend per player is $22.8MM/16 = $1.425MM/player.

Kampf, Sikura, KooKoo, Forsling and Perlini all RFAs next year - Drake and Kahun are RFAs in 2020-21 - Gus and CC are UFA 2020-21 - Beaudin, Joki, Bovqist all in final year of $925K in 2020-21.

Who is their #1 goalie in 2020-21? Delia?? I doubt it, and no book on any of the rest of the G prospects to make any judgments on. Have to go FA to find one and that won't be cheap. At LEAST $6MM/yr, probably more. That alone means $7MM off of the $22.8MM because Delia at $1MM is likely at least the #2.

So then they have $15.8MM to sign fourteen remaining roster spots at an average per player hit of $1.12MM.

Then if any of the young D guys is a winner, they have to be paid the following year as they will all be RFAs.

Stan has to spend next year as if it is two years from now, while not exposing players to the expansion draft that he does not want to.

Still in cap hell.

- Return of the Roar


with that scenario...it sure is...

gotta believe seab and/or arte and/or ? is gone by then
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Apr 1 @ 2:06 PM ET
only bottom 6 get a lottery ball? or all teams that do not make the tournament get a lottery ball?
- glennjpawlak22


No, but higher(Lower?) you are in the standings, the higher # of lottery balls, or odds, you have for the 1-3 picks.

They draw lottery balls for picks 1-3, and then the remaining teams slot according to the season standings................
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Apr 1 @ 2:11 PM ET
Panarin-Zibanejad-Chytill sounds like a new line of high-priced pharmaceuticals. Top 6 forwards lines:

Panarin-Zibanejad-Chytill
Latuda-Zoloft-Xanax

- AEL_Fox


Contact Dr. Chim Richalds if the swelling hasn't gone down after 4 hours, and if you're still emitting from both ends.
RaleighHawk
Joined: 03.29.2016

Apr 1 @ 2:24 PM ET
Cap projection for 2020-21 season will illustrate position the Hawks are in:

2018-19 cap is $79.5MM
2019-20 cap at $82MM (based upon NHL office estimate - 3% increase)
2020-21 cap at $84.5MM (based upon historical 3% bump)

$84.5MM budget

$21MMM - 19/88
$14MM - 12/17 (I'm assuming that will be about what they sign for)
$12.3MM - 2/7
$6MM - 20
$4.55MM - 15
$3.85MM - 5

$61.7MM committed leaves $22.8MM to fill two goalie spots and fourteen remaining roster spots. Avg spend per player is $22.8MM/16 = $1.425MM/player.

Kampf, Sikura, KooKoo, Forsling and Perlini all RFAs next year - Drake and Kahun are RFAs in 2020-21 - Gus and CC are UFA 2020-21 - Beaudin, Joki, Bovqist all in final year of $925K in 2020-21.

Who is their #1 goalie in 2020-21? Delia?? I doubt it, and no book on any of the rest of the G prospects to make any judgments on. Have to go FA to find one and that won't be cheap. At LEAST $6MM/yr, probably more. That alone means $7MM off of the $22.8MM because Delia at $1MM is likely at least the #2.

So then they have $15.8MM to sign fourteen remaining roster spots at an average per player hit of $1.12MM.

Then if any of the young D guys is a winner, they have to be paid the following year as they will all be RFAs.

Stan has to spend next year as if it is two years from now, while not exposing players to the expansion draft that he does not want to.

Still in cap hell.

- Return of the Roar

Well, this just makes my day...
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Apr 1 @ 2:25 PM ET
https://chicago.suntimes....ture-over-draft-position/

Chicago Tribune article about the Blackhawks "choosing culture over draft position" this season. From the article:

‘‘Draft position will work itself out,’’ Colliton said. ‘‘There’s a lottery. There’s a bunch of things you can’t control. We can only control our own performance, our own mentality, how we come to work every day, and that will be our focus.’’

That’s a polite way of telling everyone where they can stick their draft talk.
tvetter
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burkesville, KY
Joined: 12.16.2015

Apr 1 @ 2:43 PM ET
Panarin-Zibanejad-Chytill sounds like a new line of high-priced pharmaceuticals. Top 6 forwards lines:

Panarin-Zibanejad-Chytill
Latuda-Zoloft-Xanax

- AEL_Fox

Only psych meds for the second line?
riozzo
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Cornwallis Island
Joined: 06.17.2014

Apr 1 @ 2:51 PM ET
Only psych meds for the second line?
- tvetter

3rd line

Ozempic, Tresiba, Metformin

4th

Carvedol, Xarelto, Rosuvastatin

I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Apr 1 @ 2:51 PM ET
3rd line

Ozempic, Tresiba, Metformin

4th

Carvedol, Xarelto, Rosuvastatin

- riozzo


Coach adlimumab
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Apr 1 @ 2:59 PM ET
Dietz pretty much sums up the problems with the Hawk defense in 1 column.

https://www.dailyherald.c...ly-for-chicago-blackhawks

Among the best parts (unless you're a Gustafsson fan):

Clinging to a 2-1 lead late with just 4:32 remaining, Erik Gustafsson attempts an ill-advised pass to Patrick Kane in the neutral zone. Two Kings are in the way and the puck is deflected back to Gustafsson, who is now under heavy pressure from Kyle Clifford and Jeff Carter.
At this point, Gustafsson zips an off-target pass to Artem Anisimov in the middle of the ice, and the puck is quickly turned around and sent toward the Kings' offensive zone by Matt Roy.
Now the wheels are in motion for what would turn into the Kings' tying goal. Instead of trying to thread the needle to Kane, all Gustafsson had to do was take one stride to center ice and dump the puck behind the Kings' net.


As bad as Gustaffson's gaffe was, however, there's still no way the Kings should have tied the game. Anisimov somehow allows Trevor Lewis to take the puck all the way down the boards and deep into his offensive zone. The big center uses his stick -- and not his 6-foot-4, 198-pound frame -- to try to end the play.
Lewis manages to pass to Clifford, who feeds Alec Martinez right in front of the net.
With Gustafsson, Anisimov and Duncan Keith below the goal line, Patrick Kane is floating off in no man's land off to Corey Crawford's right.
Meanwhile, Michael Amido is in perfect position in the middle of the ice, about 30 feet from Crawford.


At this point, Colliton pauses for a couple of seconds, lets out a big sigh and hits us with this: "You never know when the game's on the line; the game's always on the line. If you let down for five, 10 seconds and get loose or get soft or not sharp, you get punished."

Drink that quote in for a second.
Gustafsson's "loose" and careless pass, Anisimov's "soft" play along the boards, and Kane not staying "sharp" at a critical moment turned this game completely around.
Incredibly, here's what Gustafsson said the same day I talked to Colliton at the Allstate Arena: "If we follow our game plan we're going to win games. That's what he'd keep telling us. Maybe two seconds in the game can make a huge impact, and they can score if you lose the puck. It only takes two seconds."
Exactly. And that's all it took Saturday.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Apr 1 @ 3:00 PM ET
3rd line

Ozempic, Tresiba, Metformin

4th

Carvedol, Xarelto, Rosuvastatin

- riozzo

I heard that 4th line is a pain in the butt to play against. Relentless. And that Rosuvastatin loves to throw down.
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Apr 1 @ 3:02 PM ET
A move that could work with Gus is trading him to a cap strapped team. His salary is low and he is capable of playing a lot of minutes.

Trade him and another player that is low cost, i.e. Hayden to Vegas for Mcnabb, Clarkson who is on LTIR, and a top prospect, i.e. Cody Glass or a #1 pick. Saves Vegas about 6 million in cap space and gets us a better Dman and a pick or prospect. Clarkson is off LTIR after next year so doesn't hurt when Cat and Strome come up for contracts.

- Black Raven

Not bad thinking bit would vegas do that, there in lies the bigger question how desperate will vegas be to unload contracts.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Apr 1 @ 3:06 PM ET
I heard that 4th line is a pain in the butt to play against. Relentless. And that Rosuvastatin loves to throw down.
- AEL_Fox


He's ok...Valcyclovir can take him.
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Apr 1 @ 3:07 PM ET
He's ok...Valcyclovir can take him.
- HawkintheD


Then throw Valtrex in the mix ... whoa boy!
Rota's Rooter
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2017

Apr 1 @ 3:39 PM ET
Contact Dr. Chim Richalds if the swelling hasn't gone down after 4 hours, and if you're still emitting from both ends.
- I Am The Breadman

Should be Dr. Howard, Dr. Fine and Dr. Howard.
Lido_Shuffle
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.10.2012

Apr 1 @ 3:44 PM ET
There are only 9 goalies today that make 6 million per year or more. Where does it say the Hawks are going to have to spend that much. Crawford still likely to be back in the fold and no way he gets 6 million AAV again. Probably 4-5 million likely with his age and status. Plus there are plenty of other options that will be likely in the 2.5 to 4.5 million dollar range. There is no way the Hawks need to break the bank in net. It is a buyers market for goalies.
- breadbag



You make a good point. I don't think CC is going to get a raise from the Hawks or anybody else. Obviously he will want to check out what the other teams are offering if he's getting less then hoped for from the Hawks. I have no idea how his next contract is going to look like. I do think he still has a few great years left in him if he can stay healthy.
SC116
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 08.29.2015

Apr 1 @ 3:46 PM ET
If I had to guess when it comes to UFA's they are going to go with the best available. There seems to be a lot of wasted time worrying about this, that, or the other specific part that needs fixing, but in the end it really comes down to -is/are that /those part/parts even available.

I don't think that the answer is an automatic yes- so you may see a blueline corps that might not get added to in as significant a manner as some have suggested is a requirement. I mean, it would be nice, but if it isn't there -then ... it isn't there.

You only move Anisimov if you need the money, and because you can.

Saad? Same deal - I like what he brings, although he's bringing it as a depth player, so he probably falls in the same boat as Anisimov...

I like what Strome/Debrincat add to the team - effectively it has made the Hawks a bigger scoring threat than Toews/Kane -- but frankly, Kane has gotten over-used.

The he will set a personal best in points, is nice - but I think he had significantly fewer minutes in his 106 point season -so which season was he more effective in? I guess the answer is, technically neither, since they didn't win a Stanley Cup that season -and are on fumes this season (and even that might be overly polite).

Statistically not eliminated by the last week of the season, though, is an improvement over last season.
pdx2ord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Portland, OR
Joined: 09.02.2015

Apr 1 @ 3:56 PM ET
If I had to guess when it comes to UFA's they are going to go with the best available. There seems to be a lot of wasted time worrying about this, that, or the other specific part that needs fixing, but in the end it really comes down to -is/are that /those part/parts even available.

I don't think that the answer is an automatic yes- so you may see a blueline corps that might not get added to in as significant a manner as some have suggested is a requirement. I mean, it would be nice, but if it isn't there -then ... it isn't there.

You only move Anisimov if you need the money, and because you can.

Saad? Same deal - I like what he brings, although he's bringing it as a depth player, so he probably falls in the same boat as Anisimov...

I like what Strome/Debrincat add to the team - effectively it has made the Hawks a bigger scoring threat than Toews/Kane -- but frankly, Kane has gotten over-used.

The he will set a personal best in points, is nice - but I think he had significantly fewer minutes in his 106 point season -so which season was he more effective in? I guess the answer is, technically neither, since they didn't win a Stanley Cup that season -and are on fumes this season (and even that might be overly polite).

Statistically not eliminated by the last week of the season, though, is an improvement over last season.

- SC116


Found the effectiveness related comparison in this Sun-Times article surprising. https://chicago.suntimes....blackhawks-dreary-season/

Granted the vision and passing skills that Kane typically displays put him on a completely different level than Alex, but I do wonder if DBC will make strides in those areas, too.

But all of DeBrincat’s youth-related stats — he’s the youngest player in franchise history to score 40, he owns the Hawks’ record for most goals in the first two seasons of a career and he’s well ahead of Kane’s pace at this point — are starting to seem trivial. He’s one of this team’s most dynamic players regardless of age.

He has been the Hawks’ most effective scorer this season, reaching his goal total in 108 fewer shots on goal than it has taken Kane. He is the most efficient scorer on the team, converting on 19.3 percent of his shots, which ranks eighth in the league.

He is their best power-play threat, too, scoring 13 on the man advantage. Despite his 5-7, 165-pound frame, he is deadly in those situations because he so often is in the right place at the right time to unleash a blistering one-timer.
jhawk59
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Apr 1 @ 4:08 PM ET
Far too much time and angst worrying about Brent Seabrook.

He is not going to retire voluntarily, the Hawks are not going to buy him out and they can't trade him unless they take back guys like Phaneuf, Lucic or one of the turtles on the Ducks and then throw in something else to compensate for contarct term differences.

So, #7 stays on the roster and becomes the 7th or 8th defenceman and plays occasional games as an injury or 'load management' fill in. And then we can complain about that.

- RickJ


I will choose to believe this.

I believe there is no training which can co.pensste or sid him to rea h the skating level he was at. It may be tbe skating which affects his skill set. A tual sml may nkt ha e eroded outside of the skating. Skill in each facet of his game is a moot point when the skating is such a major part, an integral part of his perf9mance. Sure hus veteran smarts has mesnt he makes some giid plays/reactions. Ut he is not akin to Larry Murphy. In the twilight of
his career Murpby was masterful at playing'angles in defending. I would
choose to Seabrook inztead of thosd other fat contra ts Rick mentioned


[img][/img]
tvetter
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burkesville, KY
Joined: 12.16.2015

Apr 1 @ 4:19 PM ET
I could see the Vegas scenario happening. Gus for Mcnabb would save Vegas $1.3M, and if we took Clarkson, that would be another $5.25M. That would help Vegas resign Karlsson while not creating any holes in their lineup. Taking Clarkson should get us a high pick or top prospect.

Joki can step into a top 4 role next year, and we have:
Keith-jokiharju
McNabb-Murphy
Forsling-Seabrook
Dahlstrom
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Apr 1 @ 4:34 PM ET
Well done!!

The Hawks are out of wild card spot by 6 points. If Crow was healthy and played the whole year would the Hawks have been 6 points better and made the playoffs?

With minimal changes would the below group make the playoffs next year.
9 Forwards - Kane, Toews, ADB, Strome, Kampf, Kahun, Saad, Caggiula, AA
6 Dmen - Keith, Joki, Murphy, Forsling, Gus (RFA), Seabs,
1 goalie - Crow

That is 16 players. Then you add a top 4 dman, a really good 3C (play AA on the wing), a 4th line winger through trade and/or free agency.

That would bring the total to 19.

Choose a backup goalie (Forsberg or Delia)
Choose 2 forwards from Sikura, Hayden, Perlini, or prospects/draft picks to fill out the team.

If you have to trade an NHL player off of our roster (instead of prospects and/or picks) to get a top 4 dman than you would need to add one other player.

I would be ok with that, and save a little cap space just in case you need to add someone at the TDL.

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