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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: The Season Winds Down
Author Message
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Apr 1 @ 12:23 PM ET
Agreed. There's been a board meme for years that the Hawks front office is often hamstrung because of a collaborative decision making process (said in Canadian to be inclusive). If true, they're all operating from the same playbook. Imo, this gives Stan time, in addition to the reasons you give.
- mohel

If the day's narrative is the Front office then it's because they are collaborative (inclusive) but if the day's narrative is Blowman than he and he alone is making moves and (frank)s everything up. Gotta get with the program and know what day's narrative you're speaking to.
Q-stache
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 11.20.2015

Apr 1 @ 12:25 PM ET
A move that could work with Gus is trading him to a cap strapped team. His salary is low and he is capable of playing a lot of minutes.

Trade him and another player that is low cost, i.e. Hayden to Vegas for Mcnabb, Clarkson who is on LTIR, and a top prospect, i.e. Cody Glass or a #1 pick. Saves Vegas about 6 million in cap space and gets us a better Dman and a pick or prospect. Clarkson is off LTIR after next year so doesn't hurt when Cat and Strome come up for contracts.

- Black Raven


Do this with Trouba/WPG and you've got yourself a deal!
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Apr 1 @ 12:30 PM ET
A move that could work with Gus is trading him to a cap strapped team. His salary is low and he is capable of playing a lot of minutes.

Trade him and another player that is low cost, i.e. Hayden to Vegas for Mcnabb, Clarkson who is on LTIR, and a top prospect, i.e. Cody Glass or a #1 pick. Saves Vegas about 6 million in cap space and gets us a better Dman and a pick or prospect. Clarkson is off LTIR after next year so doesn't hurt when Cat and Strome come up for contracts.

- Black Raven

#1. Why would Vegas need to move Clarkson?

#2 In what universe is Hayden going to bring back a roster player and a top prospect?
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Apr 1 @ 12:34 PM ET
Big John Hayden fan here.

Hope he stays with the Hawks, but I'm wondering if he's a guy they'll move.

- Matt Ross


Big fan of your work on Silicon Valley. Gavin's the best!
gazza53
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 09.15.2017

Apr 1 @ 12:35 PM ET
Krys played much better in his 2nd and 3rd games. Simple, smart plays. Jokiharju was more engaged in the past two games as well. Both were the QBs on the PP: Krys on the 1st unit and Jokiharju on the 2nd unit.

I was really impressed by the debuts of Hagel and R Johnson. Hagel generates a lot of scoring chances. Seemed like at least one per shift. He's relentless on the forecheck and the puck always seems to find him.

Johnson plays physical and throws his body at every chance he can get but plays a smart defensive game. Very good on faceoffs, too.

That all sound's great for the future, but am a bit puzzled why Krys is getting
the 1st unit PP as opposed to Joki getting it. I wonder if Joki is not long for
being a Hawk, considering where/how he started and played this season, why
the 2nd unit, why not back up here?

2/7 are beginning to block talent, Stan has a major problem on his hands
with 2/7 and their contracts. Actually the whole logjam at D is starting to
present problems.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Apr 1 @ 12:35 PM ET
Big fan of your work on Silicon Valley. Gavin's the best!
- HawkintheD

Maybe, if you're nice, he'll give you his autograph.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Apr 1 @ 12:38 PM ET
Krys played much better in his 2nd and 3rd games. Simple, smart plays. Jokiharju was more engaged in the past two games as well. Both were the QBs on the PP: Krys on the 1st unit and Jokiharju on the 2nd unit.

I was really impressed by the debuts of Hagel and R Johnson. Hagel generates a lot of scoring chances. Seemed like at least one per shift. He's relentless on the forecheck and the puck always seems to find him.

Johnson plays physical and throws his body at every chance he can get but plays a smart defensive game. Very good on faceoffs, too.

That all sound's great for the future, but am a bit puzzled why Krys is getting
the 1st unit PP as opposed to Joki getting it. I wonder if Joki is not long for
being a Hawk, considering where/how he started and played this season, why
the 2nd unit, why not back up here?

2/7 are beginning to block talent, Stan has a major problem on his hands
with 2/7 and their contracts. Actually the whole logjam at D is starting to
present problems
.

- gazza53


A logjam would suggest there are defensemen not getting an opportunity because 2 inferior defensemen are blocking them from roster spots. Care to tell who the best 2 Hawk defensemen are and what defensemen are in this logjam you speak of.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Apr 1 @ 12:41 PM ET
#1. Why would Vegas need to move Clarkson?

#2 In what universe is Hayden going to bring back a roster player and a top prospect?

- paulr


Many believe that because Vegas has a big cap issue, they will accept a bag of pucks for salary. That's not how markets work, of course. Some other team will offer two bags of pucks. If the player is good, another team will offer four because it is still a great value to their team. And that GM actually represents the team he works for.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Apr 1 @ 12:43 PM ET
Krys played much better in his 2nd and 3rd games. Simple, smart plays. Jokiharju was more engaged in the past two games as well. Both were the QBs on the PP: Krys on the 1st unit and Jokiharju on the 2nd unit.

I was really impressed by the debuts of Hagel and R Johnson. Hagel generates a lot of scoring chances. Seemed like at least one per shift. He's relentless on the forecheck and the puck always seems to find him.

Johnson plays physical and throws his body at every chance he can get but plays a smart defensive game. Very good on faceoffs, too.

That all sound's great for the future, but am a bit puzzled why Krys is getting
the 1st unit PP as opposed to Joki getting it. I wonder if Joki is not long for
being a Hawk, considering where/how he started and played this season, why
the 2nd unit, why not back up here?

2/7 are beginning to block talent, Stan has a major problem on his hands
with 2/7 and their contracts. Actually the whole logjam at D is starting to
present problems.

- gazza53


Probably just looking at Krys with the best players, to see how he does.
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Apr 1 @ 12:45 PM ET
Maybe, if you're nice, he'll give you his autograph.
- paulr


I think he wants Gavin Belson's autograph, not the actor that plays him. It is not appropriate for me to post the picture of the signature here.
gazza53
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 09.15.2017

Apr 1 @ 12:51 PM ET
A logjam would suggest there are defensemen not getting an opportunity because 2 inferior defensemen are blocking them from roster spots. Care to tell who the best 2 Hawk defensemen are and what defensemen are in this logjam you speak of.
- paulr


sure Gus and Murphy maybe Joki, father time has gotten to Seabs/Duncs

Karlson, Gilbert, Joki, at first, then Tuuolla, Krys, Mitchell if signed, Beaudin
top to bottom the logjam will present opportunity and problems.

Do you not think that 2/7 are no longer who the claim to be?
Black Raven
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: UT
Joined: 01.12.2019

Apr 1 @ 12:56 PM ET
#1. Why would Vegas need to move Clarkson?

#2 In what universe is Hayden going to bring back a roster player and a top prospect?

- paulr



1-Because he makes $5MM plus in salary and they need cap space and we have seen how hard it is to use LTIR cap space.

2- It is not just Hayden, but Gus and cap relief that brings back the pick or prospect with McNabb.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Apr 1 @ 1:09 PM ET
Cap projection for 2020-21 season will illustrate position the Hawks are in:

2018-19 cap is $79.5MM
2019-20 cap at $82MM (based upon NHL office estimate - 3% increase)
2020-21 cap at $84.5MM (based upon historical 3% bump)

$84.5MM budget

$21MMM - 19/88
$14MM - 12/17 (I'm assuming that will be about what they sign for)
$12.3MM - 2/7
$6MM - 20
$4.55MM - 15
$3.85MM - 5

$61.7MM committed leaves $22.8MM to fill two goalie spots and fourteen remaining roster spots. Avg spend per player is $22.8MM/16 = $1.425MM/player.

Kampf, Sikura, KooKoo, Forsling and Perlini all RFAs next year - Drake and Kahun are RFAs in 2020-21 - Gus and CC are UFA 2020-21 - Beaudin, Joki, Bovqist all in final year of $925K in 2020-21.

Who is their #1 goalie in 2020-21? Delia?? I doubt it, and no book on any of the rest of the G prospects to make any judgments on. Have to go FA to find one and that won't be cheap. At LEAST $6MM/yr, probably more. That alone means $7MM off of the $22.8MM because Delia at $1MM is likely at least the #2.

So then they have $15.8MM to sign fourteen remaining roster spots at an average per player hit of $1.12MM.

Then if any of the young D guys is a winner, they have to be paid the following year as they will all be RFAs.

Stan has to spend next year as if it is two years from now, while not exposing players to the expansion draft that he does not want to.

Still in cap hell.




walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Apr 1 @ 1:12 PM ET
Big John Hayden fan here.

Hope he stays with the Hawks, but I'm wondering if he's a guy they'll move.

- Matt Ross


Since he hasn’t played in almost a month I’d say his time as a Blackhawk is coming to a close. I tend to think they’ll try to sign Perlini for one or two years at buriable money.
vshun
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Potomac Falls, VA
Joined: 06.04.2015

Apr 1 @ 1:21 PM ET
What would be the point of trading him at this moment?
- paulr

This is what Justin put in a blog today : 'Maybe Murphy or Gustafsson will be moved?' so I was just asking why trade our only top 4 defenceman who is not that old (I know many here consider Keith still be top 4 next few years so we can disagree on that one).
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Apr 1 @ 1:26 PM ET
Krys played much better in his 2nd and 3rd games. Simple, smart plays. Jokiharju was more engaged in the past two games as well. Both were the QBs on the PP: Krys on the 1st unit and Jokiharju on the 2nd unit.

I was really impressed by the debuts of Hagel and R Johnson. Hagel generates a lot of scoring chances. Seemed like at least one per shift. He's relentless on the forecheck and the puck always seems to find him.

Johnson plays physical and throws his body at every chance he can get but plays a smart defensive game. Very good on faceoffs, too.

That all sound's great for the future, but am a bit puzzled why Krys is getting
the 1st unit PP as opposed to Joki getting it. I wonder if Joki is not long for
being a Hawk, considering where/how he started and played this season, why
the 2nd unit, why not back up here?

2/7 are beginning to block talent, Stan has a major problem on his hands
with 2/7 and their contracts. Actually the whole logjam at D is starting to
present problems.

- gazza53

At the AHL level, don't think it matters as much who is the #1 QB and who is #2. Both units get equal playing time while on the Hawks the #1 unit seems to get the lion's share of minutes (someone can fact check me on that).

Krys is a great skater who stick handles and passes well with a nice shot to go with it. Jokiharju isn't bad by any stretch but I think Krys could have the edge for total package as far as what you want to see in a QB for the PP. Jokiharju isn't a consolation prize and is good in his own right.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Apr 1 @ 1:31 PM ET
This is what Justin put in a blog today : 'Maybe Murphy or Gustafsson will be moved?' so I was just asking why trade our only top 4 defenceman who is not that old (I know many here consider Keith still be top 4 next few years so we can disagree on that one).
- vshun

IMO, you retain Murphy unless you know for certain you can not only upgrade over him but also add another new blueliner who can play reliable defense and play top 4 minutes. Not sure if that's doable. Let's say that it is, then the backend looks something like:

Keith - Jokiharju
New LHD - New RHD
Gustafsson - Seabrook
Dahlstrom/Forsling

That assumes, of course, that Jokiharju is 100% ready to be a starter again next season.

With the 7th spot, I think in the end, Koekkoek isn't retained and Forsling joins Dahlstrom back in the fold.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Apr 1 @ 1:33 PM ET
Cap projection for 2020-21 season will illustrate position the Hawks are in:

2018-19 cap is $79.5MM
2019-20 cap at $82MM (based upon NHL office estimate - 3% increase)
2020-21 cap at $84.5MM (based upon historical 3% bump)

$84.5MM budget

$21MMM - 19/88
$14MM - 12/17 (I'm assuming that will be about what they sign for)
$12.3MM - 2/7
$6MM - 20
$4.55MM - 15
$3.85MM - 5

$61.7MM committed leaves $22.8MM to fill two goalie spots and fourteen remaining roster spots. Avg spend per player is $22.8MM/16 = $1.425MM/player.

Kampf, Sikura, KooKoo, Forsling and Perlini all RFAs next year - Drake and Kahun are RFAs in 2020-21 - Gus and CC are UFA 2020-21 - Beaudin, Joki, Bovqist all in final year of $925K in 2020-21.

Who is their #1 goalie in 2020-21? Delia?? I doubt it, and no book on any of the rest of the G prospects to make any judgments on. Have to go FA to find one and that won't be cheap. At LEAST $6MM/yr, probably more. That alone means $7MM off of the $22.8MM because Delia at $1MM is likely at least the #2.

So then they have $15.8MM to sign fourteen remaining roster spots at an average per player hit of $1.12MM.

Then if any of the young D guys is a winner, they have to be paid the following year as they will all be RFAs.

Stan has to spend next year as if it is two years from now, while not exposing players to the expansion draft that he does not want to.

Still in cap hell.

- Return of the Roar


Well....there's a bunch of variables and unknowns there. Like, who will pan out, and who won't. Also a couple factual nits. Crow and Gus are UFA after next season. Boqvist won't be an RFA yet because his contract will slide. Same with Beaudin. Sikura, Perlini and Kampf are RFA this summer, and none will get a sizeable raise. Same with Forsling and Kookoo. That doesn't hurt the cap, it helps.

Your point that signing an old guy to a long-term, high money deal will cause problems down the road. To me, that's good. I don't think those things help very often. But the have room to put together a solid 4th line and get a 2nd pairing guy. So, I don't see cap hell, unless all the players turn out to be really good, which is a good problem.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Apr 1 @ 1:36 PM ET
Cap projection for 2020-21 season will illustrate position the Hawks are in:

2018-19 cap is $79.5MM
2019-20 cap at $82MM (based upon NHL office estimate - 3% increase)
2020-21 cap at $84.5MM (based upon historical 3% bump)

$84.5MM budget

$21MMM - 19/88
$14MM - 12/17 (I'm assuming that will be about what they sign for)
$12.3MM - 2/7
$6MM - 20
$4.55MM - 15
$3.85MM - 5

$61.7MM committed leaves $22.8MM to fill two goalie spots and fourteen remaining roster spots. Avg spend per player is $22.8MM/16 = $1.425MM/player.

Kampf, Sikura, KooKoo, Forsling and Perlini all RFAs next year - Drake and Kahun are RFAs in 2020-21 - Gus and CC are UFA 2020-21 - Beaudin, Joki, Bovqist all in final year of $925K in 2020-21.

Who is their #1 goalie in 2020-21? Delia?? I doubt it, and no book on any of the rest of the G prospects to make any judgments on. Have to go FA to find one and that won't be cheap. At LEAST $6MM/yr, probably more. That alone means $7MM off of the $22.8MM because Delia at $1MM is likely at least the #2.

So then they have $15.8MM to sign fourteen remaining roster spots at an average per player hit of $1.12MM.

Then if any of the young D guys is a winner, they have to be paid the following year as they will all be RFAs.

Stan has to spend next year as if it is two years from now, while not exposing players to the expansion draft that he does not want to.

Still in cap hell.

- Return of the Roar


I assume this is based on the Blackhawks not making any trades, AA and Saad remain through the end of their contracts.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Apr 1 @ 1:48 PM ET
Cap projection for 2020-21 season will illustrate position the Hawks are in:

2018-19 cap is $79.5MM
2019-20 cap at $82MM (based upon NHL office estimate - 3% increase)
2020-21 cap at $84.5MM (based upon historical 3% bump)

$84.5MM budget

$21MMM - 19/88
$14MM - 12/17 (I'm assuming that will be about what they sign for)
$12.3MM - 2/7
$6MM - 20
$4.55MM - 15
$3.85MM - 5

$61.7MM committed leaves $22.8MM to fill two goalie spots and fourteen remaining roster spots. Avg spend per player is $22.8MM/16 = $1.425MM/player.

Kampf, Sikura, KooKoo, Forsling and Perlini all RFAs next year - Drake and Kahun are RFAs in 2020-21 - Gus and CC are UFA 2020-21 - Beaudin, Joki, Bovqist all in final year of $925K in 2020-21.

Who is their #1 goalie in 2020-21? Delia?? I doubt it, and no book on any of the rest of the G prospects to make any judgments on. Have to go FA to find one and that won't be cheap. At LEAST $6MM/yr, probably more. That alone means $7MM off of the $22.8MM because Delia at $1MM is likely at least the #2.

So then they have $15.8MM to sign fourteen remaining roster spots at an average per player hit of $1.12MM.

Then if any of the young D guys is a winner, they have to be paid the following year as they will all be RFAs.

Stan has to spend next year as if it is two years from now, while not exposing players to the expansion draft that he does not want to.

Still in cap hell.

- Return of the Roar


There are only 9 goalies today that make 6 million per year or more. Where does it say the Hawks are going to have to spend that much. Crawford still likely to be back in the fold and no way he gets 6 million AAV again. Probably 4-5 million likely with his age and status. Plus there are plenty of other options that will be likely in the 2.5 to 4.5 million dollar range. There is no way the Hawks need to break the bank in net. It is a buyers market for goalies.

HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Apr 1 @ 1:50 PM ET
Maybe, if you're nice, he'll give you his autograph.
- paulr


He's too busy with Houli to sign autographs...
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Apr 1 @ 1:51 PM ET
If the Hawks get 0 points out of the final 4 games, they can possibly go as low (high?) in the draft lottery to 6th. Kirby Dach sounds like a nice addition to the Organization at #6 overall


Hawks will get a lottery ball to drop in the top 3 either way
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Apr 1 @ 1:52 PM ET
If the Hawks get 0 points out of the final 4 games, they can possibly go as low (high?) in the draft lottery to 6th. Kirby Dach sounds like a nice addition to the Organization at #6 overall


Hawks will get a lottery ball to drop in the top 3 either way

- EnzoD


You been talking to Darth about who gets the lotto pick?
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Apr 1 @ 1:56 PM ET
Krys played much better in his 2nd and 3rd games. Simple, smart plays. Jokiharju was more engaged in the past two games as well. Both were the QBs on the PP: Krys on the 1st unit and Jokiharju on the 2nd unit.

I was really impressed by the debuts of Hagel and R Johnson. Hagel generates a lot of scoring chances. Seemed like at least one per shift. He's relentless on the forecheck and the puck always seems to find him.

Johnson plays physical and throws his body at every chance he can get but plays a smart defensive game. Very good on faceoffs, too.

- AEL_Fox


These are the sort of players that need to play this way described since we are lacking secondary value roles. Undoubtably there would be some .miinor league
preparation. The safe and likely scenario to replay in our mind is that the aforementioned plagers represent second or third line forwards and a third pair on defense. Whether tbeir ceiling is more is not known yet. I doubt they are morre than that. A breathe of fresh air for the Rockford team, though. And to segway to the Icehogs:
1).they need the help from an offensive view; and 2). The Blackhawks are completing a better job preparing prospects if a Holland and others lead a more
productive offense. Our prospects should learn and grow in an environment that has been lean on genuine offensive ability the past few seasons.[img][/img]
riozzo
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Cornwallis Island
Joined: 06.17.2014

Apr 1 @ 1:56 PM ET
Cap projection for 2020-21 season will illustrate position the Hawks are in:

2018-19 cap is $79.5MM
2019-20 cap at $82MM (based upon NHL office estimate - 3% increase)
2020-21 cap at $84.5MM (based upon historical 3% bump)

$84.5MM budget

$21MMM - 19/88
$14MM - 12/17 (I'm assuming that will be about what they sign for)
$12.3MM - 2/7
$6MM - 20
$4.55MM - 15
$3.85MM - 5

$61.7MM committed leaves $22.8MM to fill two goalie spots and fourteen remaining roster spots. Avg spend per player is $22.8MM/16 = $1.425MM/player.

Kampf, Sikura, KooKoo, Forsling and Perlini all RFAs next year - Drake and Kahun are RFAs in 2020-21 - Gus and CC are UFA 2020-21 - Beaudin, Joki, Bovqist all in final year of $925K in 2020-21.

Who is their #1 goalie in 2020-21? Delia?? I doubt it, and no book on any of the rest of the G prospects to make any judgments on. Have to go FA to find one and that won't be cheap. At LEAST $6MM/yr, probably more. That alone means $7MM off of the $22.8MM because Delia at $1MM is likely at least the #2.

So then they have $15.8MM to sign fourteen remaining roster spots at an average per player hit of $1.12MM.

Then if any of the young D guys is a winner, they have to be paid the following year as they will all be RFAs.

Stan has to spend next year as if it is two years from now, while not exposing players to the expansion draft that he does not want to.

Still in cap hell.

- Return of the Roar


Which makes it abundantly clear why Panarian will never return.
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