So...where the shot is taken from on the ice has nothing to do with it? Not part of the equation?
What is it you’re exactly saying? Your second paragraph is puzzling.
- potvin05

Yes it matters where the shots come from, but over time, you can't just allow low danger shots because it's the NHL and that is impossible.

Put it this way: even if we granted the fact that the Islanders were the best coached and best defensive team of all-time *which no one is saying* their team save percentage would still be too high to last.

Your hatred of the Islanders is ridiculous.
You already posted Islanders are only winning because of Lehner, now its because of both goalies? Look at Greiss' numbers last year? He magically became great?
Shoot, Halak was Isles the Isles goalie last year, he is proving he is still a good goalie when in front of a better D.
Vokoun, Rinne, Holtby? Are Trots and Korn Goalie Wisperers?
Is it possible that the defensive scheme leads to lower quality shots?
Isles defensemen are almost the same as last year, yet they have went from being the worst D in 10 years to the Best?
Islanders improvement is remarkable. They lost the top scorer in Free agency and one of the top defensemen (Calvin Dehaan) .
Trotz has made a huge difference and the goalies are benefiting from Barry more than he from them.
- Tornado Mark

I really think we need to take a step back from the idea that all criticism is based in hatred and bias.

I have absolutely no personal feelings about the New York Islanders, either good or bad. I just like hockey and I find it interesting that everyone jumps on a narrative that becomes a fact, despite the underlying numbers that and history of similar teams doing the same thing suggesting the narrative is wrong.

People can have, and offer, conflicting opinions without trying to drive up hits for their blog or hating the thing they're criticizing.

Well I wouldn't count on this level of goaltending to keep going, it's very probable that the Islanders won't win a cup because their goalie played to a .935%.

However, had they hit the Playoffs during Lehner's best 20 game run of this season, they very well could have.

If a save percentage this high was anywhere close to normal, you'd be able to reasonably assume that in the future it would continue.

The question isn't "can the Islanders keep this going" because we know with near certainty that they can't. The question should be "how far can they go if they only get sightly above league average goaltending"? Which is what I'd expect for Lehner in the future.

Now let's say I'm wrong. Let's say Lehner really is an all-time great and by putting his troubles to rest, only now is he living up to his potential.

Let's say the only fluke is that Greiss is matching him game for game.

Then all bets are off. If Lehner really is a top five goalie, then the Islanders are way better than I think. However, even if he is, their current team save percentage is too high to maintain.

That is the thing that would scare me if I was an Islanders fan: even if Lehner is the real deal, they're still playing above their head.
- James_Tanner

It was a pretty simple question. I'm not arguing with you about the Islanders. I just want to know what is the threshold for "long-term", in your evaluation process.

A month? A season? 10 years? What amount of time do you consider "long-term"?

Yes it matters where the shots come from, but over time, you can't just allow low danger shots because it's the NHL and that is impossible.
- James_Tanner

Of course it’s impossible. BUT, would you rather give up 15-foot shots from just outside of the crease, right in front of the goalie the majority of the time or would you rather give up 60-80 foot shots from outside the circles by the boards?

That is the difference between last year’s team with Weight (and Crapuano before him) and Trotz this year.

"The Islanders allow more shot-attempts than almost any other team, and their goalies combine for a .9361 save percentage. Only ten goalies in NHL history have posted a number that high. Not teams, mind you, GOALIES. So the fact that their back-up is also playing out of his mind should tell you all you need to know about the luck they're getting."

It makes my brain hurt that you see something that refutes your theory as support for your theory. When only 10 goalies in NHL history have done something, and two pretty much career backups do that thing in the same year - on the same team - and you consider it evidence of some unprecedented SEVENTY GAME string of puck luck....

Lehner and Greiss should each go out and buy a Powerball ticket because the odds of them both getting winning tickets are probably greater than what you're positing. Oy.

"The Islanders allow more shot-attempts than almost any other team, and their goalies combine for a .9361 save percentage. Only ten goalies in NHL history have posted a number that high. Not teams, mind you, GOALIES. So the fact that their back-up is also playing out of his mind should tell you all you need to know about the luck they're getting."

It makes my brain hurt that you see something that refutes your theory as support for your theory. When only 10 goalies in NHL history have done something, and two pretty much career backups do that thing in the same year - on the same team - and you consider it evidence of some unprecedented SEVENTY GAME string of puck luck....

Lehner and Greiss should each go out and buy a Powerball ticket because the odds of them both getting winning tickets are probably greater than what you're positing. Oy.
- doublechili

Did the Islanders Symbol get shown above Tannthom City?

It was a pretty simple question. I'm not arguing with you about the Islanders. I just want to know what is the threshold for "long-term", in your evaluation process.

A month? A season? 10 years? What amount of time do you consider "long-term"?
- eichiefs9

It's irrelevant. We're just trying to predict the future.

Will the Islanders' hot run last another five games? Very probable. Ten games? less probable, 20 more games, much less probable, etc.

One of the reason people complain about advanced stats is that they exist to give a probable outcome of the future. Something with 80% probability is very likely to occur, but will not occur one out of five times.

The NHL Media on the other hand, tends to act like whatever is happening today will keep going that way forever and ever.

"The Islanders allow more shot-attempts than almost any other team, and their goalies combine for a .9361 save percentage. Only ten goalies in NHL history have posted a number that high. Not teams, mind you, GOALIES. So the fact that their back-up is also playing out of his mind should tell you all you need to know about the luck they're getting."

It makes my brain hurt that you see something that refutes your theory as support for your theory. When only 10 goalies in NHL history have done something, and two pretty much career backups do that thing in the same year - on the same team - and you consider it evidence of some unprecedented SEVENTY GAME string of puck luck....

Lehner and Greiss should each go out and buy a Powerball ticket because the odds of them both getting winning tickets are probably greater than what you're positing. Oy.
- doublechili

I’m clapping right now. Great post. Nail meet head.

Did the Islanders Symbol get shown above Tannthom City?
- AdamFrench

We're like moths. Shine a light on the Islanders and we all flock to it and also I stepped on and squished Vukota once.

"The Islanders allow more shot-attempts than almost any other team, and their goalies combine for a .9361 save percentage. Only ten goalies in NHL history have posted a number that high. Not teams, mind you, GOALIES. So the fact that their back-up is also playing out of his mind should tell you all you need to know about the luck they're getting."

It makes my brain hurt that you see something that refutes your theory as support for your theory. When only 10 goalies in NHL history have done something, and two pretty much career backups do that thing in the same year - on the same team - and you consider it evidence of some unprecedented SEVENTY GAME string of puck luck....

Lehner and Greiss should each go out and buy a Powerball ticket because the odds of them both getting winning tickets are probably greater than what you're positing. Oy.
- doublechili

Agree. There are 2 explanations for the crazy numbers:
a. new highly accomplished and highly regarded coach helps to limit the opposition to low quality shots
b. 2 different average goalies are historically lucky for 70 games

JT, without watching a single NYI game, concludes that it's obviously b, and anyone who disagrees is lacking critical thinking and nuance skills

It's irrelevant. We're just trying to predict the future.

Will the Islanders' hot run last another five games? Very probable. Ten games? less probable, 20 more games, much less probable, etc.

One of the reason people complain about advanced stats is that they exist to give a probable outcome of the future. Something with 80% probability is very likely to occur, but will not occur one out of five times.

The NHL Media on the other hand, tends to act like whatever is happening today will keep going that way forever and ever.
- James_Tanner

If it’s irrelevant, then why don’t you answer his very simple question? You’re the one who threw out this “long-term basis” in the first place.

It's irrelevant. We're just trying to predict the future.

Will the Islanders' hot run last another five games? Very probable. Ten games? less probable, 20 more games, much less probable, etc.

One of the reason people complain about advanced stats is that they exist to give a probable outcome of the future. Something with 80% probability is very likely to occur, but will not occur one out of five times.

The NHL Media on the other hand, tends to act like whatever is happening today will keep going that way forever and ever.
- James_Tanner

The problem is you use advance stats in certain situations and totally ignore them in others, and then wonder why you get hate mail. haha

ie> Dylan Strome in this blog.

"The Islanders allow more shot-attempts than almost any other team, and their goalies combine for a .9361 save percentage. Only ten goalies in NHL history have posted a number that high. Not teams, mind you, GOALIES. So the fact that their back-up is also playing out of his mind should tell you all you need to know about the luck they're getting."

It makes my brain hurt that you see something that refutes your theory as support for your theory. When only 10 goalies in NHL history have done something, and two pretty much career backups do that thing in the same year - on the same team - and you consider it evidence of some unprecedented SEVENTY GAME string of puck luck....

Lehner and Greiss should each go out and buy a Powerball ticket because the odds of them both getting winning tickets are probably greater than what you're positing. Oy.
- doublechili

It only refutes my theory if you don't think about at all.

It's extremely unlikely that a team that has possession of the puck the fourth least amount of time in the NHL is going to be among the best defensive teams of all time.

And even if the Islanders were the best defensive team of all time, neither goalies save percentage should be this high. The fact that their back-up goalie actually has a higher save percentage than their starter, who is performing at a hall of fame level, is not proof that their defensive system is sound, because that doesn't make any sense.

Sure, it could prove your point if you completely ignore all context and other known information.

But what it is, is just a big fat giant coincidence.

The problem is you use advance stats in certain situations and totally ignore them in others, and then wonder why you get hate mail. haha

ie> Dylan Strome in this blog.
- Garnie

Strome is a rookie racking up big time points on a crappy team. At this point i'll take the points. It's not my fault that people consume media without any context at all and just think everything should be easily comparable.

No Bill Peters??? He'll probably get nominated.

Strome is a rookie racking up big time points on a crappy team. At this point i'll take the points. It's not my fault that people consume media without any context at all and just think everything should be easily comparable.
- James_Tanner

Can you answer my question please

Agree. There are 2 explanations for the crazy numbers:
a. new highly accomplished and highly regarded coach helps to limit the opposition to low quality shots
b. 2 different average goalies are historically lucky for 70 games

JT, without watching a single NYI game, concludes that it's obviously b, and anyone who disagrees is lacking critical thinking and nuance skills
- BestRapperAlive

Because a coach who's been in the NHL for 20 years just suddenly invented a new magical defensive system that turns washout goalies into superstars.

If only there was a way to prove that I'm right..........I know: keep watching the games, and if I'm wrong, the Islanders will continue to be at the top of the NHL, and compete for the Stanley Cup as long as Trotz is the coach.

I mean, Jesus Christ, if Trotz actually was having this much effect, don't you think every single NHL team would have already copied his system? I mean, if it turns Tomas Greisse into Carey Price, imagine what Carey Price would turn into?

Strome is a rookie racking up big time points on a crappy team. At this point i'll take the points. It's not my fault that people consume media without any context at all and just think everything should be easily comparable.
- James_Tanner

His #'s are terrible and he's just getting lucky but Tocchet should have played him more?

I'm not blaming you, you're not a hockey guy and really shouldn't know more about who to play then Tocchet or any other coach.

We're like moths. Shine a light on the Islanders and we all flock to it and also I stepped on and squished Vukota once.
- eichiefs9

- Vukota

I'm just over here waiting for Jams to answer my question without a wall of words that are irrelevant to the question

His #'s are terrible and he's just getting lucky but Tocchet should have played him more?

I'm not blaming you, you're not a hockey guy and really shouldn't know more about who to play then Tocchet or any other coach.
- Garnie

I don't blame you for not understanding my point, you're not much of an understanding basic concepts guy.

I don't blame you for not understanding my point, you're not much of an understanding basic concepts guy.
- James_Tanner

haha, just keep contradicting yourself every other day.

That's why we keep visiting.

haha, just keep contradicting yourself every other day.

That's why we keep visiting.
- Garnie

It only refutes my theory if you don't think about at all.

It's extremely unlikely that a team that has possession of the puck the fourth least amount of time in the NHL is going to be among the best defensive teams of all time.

And even if the Islanders were the best defensive team of all time, neither goalies save percentage should be this high. The fact that their back-up goalie actually has a higher save percentage than their starter, who is performing at a hall of fame level, is not proof that their defensive system is sound, because that doesn't make any sense.

Sure, it could prove your point if you completely ignore all context and other known information.

But what it is, is just a big fat giant coincidence.
- James_Tanner

Wow, it must be great never having to admit you're wrong...