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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Home Ice vs. Rested Freddy; Leafs vs. Oilers
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Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: God Leafs Satan The Oneness, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Mar 10 @ 8:37 AM ET
Totally meaningless, the stupidest stat.

5 on 5 scoring differential is where it's at.

- Aetherial


But what about score effects adjusted expected goals per minute divided by COQ to the power of PI multiplied by goals Reimer/Bernier would have had?

21peter
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Peter I Island
Joined: 11.18.2014

Mar 10 @ 8:41 AM ET
But what about score effects adjusted expected goals per minute divided by COQ to the power of PI multiplied by goals Reimer/Bernier would have had?
- Zezel

link?
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: God Leafs Satan The Oneness, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Mar 10 @ 8:43 AM ET
I still can't believe we signed John Tavares.
walshyleafsfan
Vancouver Canucks
Location: I really don't care about Nylander, I really hope he gets injured and is out - Makita
Joined: 07.14.2011

Mar 10 @ 9:15 AM ET
Totally meaningless, the stupidest stat.

5 on 5 scoring differential is where it's at.

- Aetherial

I love that.

Fancy stats people hate plus/minus do do enjoy goals scored vs given up while on the ice.

What's it like a difference of 4 or 5 maybe?
gravyface
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I wouldn't even trade [Marner] for McDavid -- UsernameUnknown
Joined: 02.19.2009

Mar 10 @ 9:27 AM ET
Sounds like I missed a dominant performance. You're welcome.
Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Mar 10 @ 9:44 AM ET
I love that.

Fancy stats people hate plus/minus do do enjoy goals scored vs given up while on the ice.

What's it like a difference of 4 or 5 maybe?

- walshyleafsfan


Tanner explained it to me (That alone is hilarious)

Apparently the fancy stat version does not include 3 on 3 or 4 on 4 or shorthanded.

So, apparently, that alone, makes it a good stat, versus +/- which is the worst stat ever.

I couldn't be bothered to point out to him that the 2 primary arguments against +/- were "sample size" (which is LOWER with is version) and the strong "team component", (which doesn't change at all with this version).

I know if I went down that rat hole with him, he would only pretend he doesn't understand my argument and ridicule it.

He truly is a (frank)ing idiot.
Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Mar 10 @ 9:46 AM ET
But what about score effects adjusted expected goals per minute divided by COQ to the power of PI multiplied by goals Reimer/Bernier would have had?
- Zezel


As long as you remember the golden equation of fancy stats:

Advanced Stats - Reality = Luck + You don't understand

You also need to remember the rules regarding sample size:

An appropriate sample size is any amount of information which shows a strong positive correlation between the fancy stat and reality.

An inappropriate sample size is one where the fancy stat does not correlate well with reality.
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: God Leafs Satan The Oneness, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Mar 10 @ 10:07 AM ET
As long as you remember the golden equation of fancy stats:

Advanced Stats - Reality = Luck + You don't understand

You also need to remember the rules regarding sample size:

An appropriate sample size is any amount of information which shows a strong positive correlation between the fancy stat and reality.

An inappropriate sample size is one where the fancy stat does not correlate well with reality.

- Aetherial

Lol

So what you're saying is Cody Franson's new album is objectively better than the Beatles, and you're not sure it's close.
walshyleafsfan
Vancouver Canucks
Location: I really don't care about Nylander, I really hope he gets injured and is out - Makita
Joined: 07.14.2011

Mar 10 @ 10:12 AM ET
Such a special pass from Zaitsev to Hyman on the Tavares goal.

Fancy stats fanatics won't be too impressed.
gravyface
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I wouldn't even trade [Marner] for McDavid -- UsernameUnknown
Joined: 02.19.2009

Mar 10 @ 10:14 AM ET
Lol

So what you're saying is Cody Franson's new album is objectively better than the Beatles, and you're not sure it's close.

- Zezel


No, the formula is:

xGRF/60

Expected Gold Records per 60 years. Beatles are far and away generational in that regard. Franson is replacement level.
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tavares is sledge hockey level - Islesrbettr, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

Mar 10 @ 10:23 AM ET
Such a special pass from Zaitsev to Hyman on the Tavares goal.

Fancy stats fanatics won't be too impressed.

- walshyleafsfan



Do they track missed passes that end up in icing? Cause z is king of that
RogerRoeper
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 03.27.2007

Mar 10 @ 10:27 AM ET
I still can't believe we signed John Tavares.
- Zezel

Amazing signing. Dubas deserves a ton of credit.
RogerRoeper
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 03.27.2007

Mar 10 @ 10:29 AM ET
Coyotes AND Carolina in the playoff hunt?! Who would have thunk it?

What we did see coming is everyone suggesting the Panthers would be playoff contenders and fell off the wagon yet again. Oh and Matt Duchene ruining his third team.

- Aaron_85

I swear, it's been at least 15 years I have heard what amazing young talent Florida has and how much better they'll be next year.
UsernameUnknown
Seattle Kraken
Location: Gotta' Catch Em All!
Joined: 03.25.2013

Mar 10 @ 10:39 AM ET
Amazing signing. Dubas deserves a ton of credit.
- RogerRoeper


Don't tell Max that.
RogerRoeper
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 03.27.2007

Mar 10 @ 10:46 AM ET
Don't tell Max that.
- UsernameUnknown

What is strange is, leading up to July 1st I heard everyone and all the media say he's staying on Long Island or signing in San Jose. Once the Leafs sign him the story becomes he was always going to the Leafs to not give Dubas credit.

Truth is, Dubas had to work harder to sign JT than for any UFA signing in NHL history.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Mar 10 @ 10:48 AM ET
💩 happened twice on this roadtrip. Play the full game!! Do that in the playoffs that can kill ya!
- Roadrunner75

33-0-1 after leading after two periods.

Don’t be one of those people who have a short memory.
RogerRoeper
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 03.27.2007

Mar 10 @ 10:49 AM ET
33-0-1 after leading after two periods.

Don’t be one of those people who have a short memory.

- Santo_44


I have read this morning so many times already they are done in the first round if they can't hold a 3-0 lead. LOL. People treat the Leafs differently than any other team.

33-0-1 is not enough for them.

4th best record in the NHL. Second best goal diff. Christ..
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Mar 10 @ 10:52 AM ET
I have read this morning so many times already they are done in the first round if they can't hold a 3-0 lead. LOL. People treat the Leafs differently than any other team.

33-0-1 is not enough for them.

4th best record in the NHL. Second best goal diff. Christ..

- RogerRoeper


It’s the Leafs.

The most recent game is the type of team they are. People are just so (frank)ing dumb sometimes.
RogerRoeper
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 03.27.2007

Mar 10 @ 10:54 AM ET
It’s the Leafs.

The most recent game is the type of team they are. People are just so (frank)ing dumb sometimes.

- Santo_44


It just gets tiresome. Oh my god they gave up 2 goals the final 3 minutes, no chance they can win a round.

WHAT?
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Mar 10 @ 10:55 AM ET
Staring to understand why the Leafs wanted to trade Brown.

I like him,he is a good 3rd line checking forward who can kill penalties.

But (frank), he doesn’t fit on a 4th line energy line.
RickJames77
Boston Bruins
Location: We’re Too Old, Boston
Joined: 04.03.2013

Mar 10 @ 10:55 AM ET
It’s the Leafs.

The most recent game is the type of team they are. People are just so (frank)ing dumb sometimes.

- Santo_44

I don’t think the media up there helps much.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Mar 10 @ 10:56 AM ET
It just gets tiresome. Oh my god they gave up 2 goals the final 3 minutes, no chance they can win a round.

WHAT?

- RogerRoeper

It’s stupid.

poop happens and teams tend to get scored on sometimes....
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Mar 10 @ 10:56 AM ET
I don’t think the media up there helps much.
- RickJames77

Yeah but honestly it’s not hard to see through them.

Too many gullible people that will believe anything some random person will tell them.
Blazed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 07.18.2012

Mar 10 @ 10:59 AM ET
Sounds fun Blazey, interesting to hear your take on the live game.

Like I always say about Babs, Shanny and Stevie Y both played for the man, both decided to select him as coach, and both know a few things about championship hockey. On the other hand, Mike Commodore chirps him from home. So I'll trust in the Shanaplan. Trying enjoying the Leafs is crazy enough to work. Go Leafs Go brother.

- Zezel


I’m too hungover to figure out how to bold the Mike Commodore comment but it’s worthy of a laughy, maybe even two 😂😂.

Also I’m relatively new to this bullpoop called your 30’s. Why are hangovers hell on Earth, this isn’t a permanent thing is it?
21peter
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Peter I Island
Joined: 11.18.2014

Mar 10 @ 11:03 AM ET
Yeah but honestly it’s not hard to see through them.

Too many gullible people that will believe anything some random person will tell them.

- Santo_44

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