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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Hawks’ Formula Works Again
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I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Mar 8 @ 2:20 PM ET
That is an interesting question because it could be argued, and I would even argue, for and against at the NHL level. Other than learning specific systems is the NHL where you want players to be taught ? Or is that what the minors are for? On the other hand when a team is rebuilding can it be done at the NHL level?
- paulr


Yeah, idk. A bunch of good questions with a bunch of different criteria/situations.
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Mar 8 @ 2:21 PM ET
Agree with this. Remember seeing someone post about the Isles going from worse on defense to the best on defense in one season with the same personnel because Trotz took them over.
- Popsghostly


That was our good buddy Mohel.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Mar 8 @ 2:23 PM ET
That was our good buddy Mohel.
- I Am The Breadman

You spelled senile wrong.


EDIT: this works better
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Mar 8 @ 2:23 PM ET
I only have like 12 of those left now!!
- TrueGrit


Spend wisely.
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Mar 8 @ 2:24 PM ET
You spelled clown wrong.
- Elbows15


This is a family channel, I was going to say something worse. I don't mind including him every now and then.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Mar 8 @ 2:34 PM ET
That was our good buddy Mohel.
- I Am The Breadman


Things can certainly change in a hurry. Special teams too.

Tampa has the best PK this season but were 4th worst last year.

LA had the best PK last year, but second worst next to us this year. I'm hoping out PK bounces back, because that would be huge.

The Islanders with right with us last year in terms of high danger puck possession being near the bottom of the NHL in terms of high danger chances for/against. They cleaned that up big time this season, sitting in the top 10 now in that category. Add in the good goaltending they have gotten and it has really shored them up.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Mar 8 @ 2:41 PM ET
Things can certainly change in a hurry. Special teams too.

Tampa has the best PK this season but were 4th worst last year.

LA had the best PK last year, but second worst next to us this year. I'm hoping out PK bounces back, because that would be huge.

The Islanders with right with us last year in terms of high danger puck possession being near the bottom of the NHL in terms of high danger chances for/against. They cleaned that up big time this season, sitting in the top 10 now in that category. Add in the good goaltending they have gotten and it has really shored them up.

- breadbag



Just to add, we are officially and far away the worst defensive team in terms of the number of high danger chances against.

We have 755 5 on 5 shot attempts against from the "high danger" area of the ice, next highest is Washington with 691. Our saving grace has been goaltending, we have the 7th best high danger save % in that situation. What it doesn't take into account well though is rebounds. I.e. if our goalies are making stops, and teams get a second or third stuff attempt at it, it would inflate the # a bit. vs a goalie that makes the save and gives up no rebound. I think however, in general, between our goalies and D, there is too much loose change around the net.



-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Mar 8 @ 2:41 PM ET
I give Kruger a hard time now, but he was a fantastic role player. Was in the perfect circumstances during the glory days. Winning teams need players like that.

Getting his just rewards for his contribution meant a contract outside of his over all value and thus a nomadic 3 years.

He should find a way to hang around for another few years somewhere adding depth. The fact that he has lost a step and somehow never gained that 20 lbs will make his value uncertain.

- TrueGrit


Kruger is only 28. He plays with different line mates every night, some who could not score a goal on a breakaway with an empty net. I do not think his skills, speed, tenacity, IQ have changed. He was always limited offensively. I think in the right situation he could do ok. I would not have any problem signing him for another year at $1mil to $1.5 mil as a depth center/wing. He can play either wing or center or sit in the press box. Kind of a 13th forward. He is an experienced depth guy that loves Chicago and would be at a cheap price. If we are getting more defensive minded on the bottom 6 we could do worse. There is no heir apparent in Rockford.
Popsghostly
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wheaton, IL
Joined: 08.11.2017

Mar 8 @ 2:50 PM ET
Just to add, we are officially and far away the worst defensive team in terms of the number of high danger chances against.

We have 755 5 on 5 shot attempts against from the "high danger" area of the ice, next highest is Washington with 691. Our saving grace has been goaltending, we have the 7th best high danger save % in that situation. What it doesn't take into account well though is rebounds. I.e. if our goalies are making stops, and teams get a second or third stuff attempt at it, it would inflate the # a bit. vs a goalie that makes the save and gives up no rebound. I think however, in general, between our goalies and D, there is too much loose change around the net.

- breadbag


What a second. Washington can't be that bad with All Mighty Kempny in their top 4!!!
67hawks
Joined: 08.30.2012

Mar 8 @ 2:58 PM ET
Kruger is only 28. He plays with different line mates every night, some who could not score a goal on a breakaway with an empty net. I do not think his skills, speed, tenacity, IQ have changed. He was always limited offensively. I think in the right situation he could do ok. I would not have any problem signing him for another year at $1mil to $1.5 mil as a depth center/wing. He can play either wing or center or sit in the press box. Kind of a 13th forward. He is an experienced depth guy that loves Chicago and would be at a cheap price. If we are getting more defensive minded on the bottom 6 we could do worse. There is no heir apparent in Rockford.
- -Doh-


Based on his play the last couple of years including an AHL stint, Kruger has no bargaining power at all. Bowman would be crazy to offer anything over $1M and/or movement clauses.
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Mar 8 @ 3:10 PM ET
Things can certainly change in a hurry. Special teams too.

Tampa has the best PK this season but were 4th worst last year.

LA had the best PK last year, but second worst next to us this year. I'm hoping out PK bounces back, because that would be huge.

The Islanders with right with us last year in terms of high danger puck possession being near the bottom of the NHL in terms of high danger chances for/against. They cleaned that up big time this season, sitting in the top 10 now in that category. Add in the good goaltending they have gotten and it has really shored them up.

- breadbag


Our pk wasn't bad last night, but our pp was bad. I said it would happen. 1 is good while the other 1 is bad and they alternate. Goaltending needs to be sorted out, and perform at a TOP level.

I'm excited to see the changes and maybe some different faces next season. I'm still watching, hoping for wins, and let the hawks draft wherever. I'm just always hopeful and optimistic, but I think next season will be better.
glennjpawlak22
Joined: 11.26.2013

Mar 8 @ 3:18 PM ET
Our pk wasn't bad last night, but our pp was bad. I said it would happen. 1 is good while the other 1 is bad and they alternate. Goaltending needs to be sorted out, and perform at a TOP level.

I'm excited to see the changes and maybe some different faces next season. I'm still watching, hoping for wins, and let the hawks draft wherever. I'm just always hopeful and optimistic, but I think next season will be better.

- I Am The Breadman


Might be time to sit Crow and see what we have for next year with him - he does not look right at all -
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Mar 8 @ 3:21 PM ET
Might be time to sit Crow and see what we have for next year with him - he does not look right at all -
- glennjpawlak22


He took a shot off of his mask last night, that had me worried. I wouldn't mind him sitting a better portion of these final games.
RaleighHawk
Joined: 03.29.2016

Mar 8 @ 3:31 PM ET
Might be time to sit Crow and see what we have for next year with him - he does not look right at all -
- glennjpawlak22

Agree
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Mar 8 @ 3:45 PM ET
Based on his play the last couple of years including an AHL stint, Kruger has no bargaining power at all. Bowman would be crazy to offer anything over $1M and/or movement clauses.
- 67hawks


He had been dealing with some injuries the previous 2 years. Maybe he could look a little better next season, but if Bowman can get him for $1 mil great. I think he will get more than $1 mil from a team up against the cap that is looking for a 4th line center/winger 13th forward.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Mar 8 @ 3:51 PM ET
Might be time to sit Crow and see what we have for next year with him - he does not look right at all -
- glennjpawlak22


Every time Crow let's in a soft goal the new mantra will be "He must be suffering from concussion issues" or "He does not look right at all". There were plenty of nights in the last 5 years where Crow let in soft goals. I guess that is why he is "not elite".

We need to start both Crow and Delia some of the remaining games to see what we have in both of them heading into the summer. It might give us a clearer picture for next year. It could affect roster decisions in the offseason.
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Mar 8 @ 3:55 PM ET
here is an article about NHL game spreads and betting...


http://www.espn.com/chalk...pitfalls-best-bets-season

- bogiedoc

Thanks! I'll need to tell my employer I'll be retiring on March 29th
Popsghostly
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wheaton, IL
Joined: 08.11.2017

Mar 8 @ 3:55 PM ET
He had been dealing with some injuries the previous 2 years. Maybe he could look a little better next season, but if Bowman can get him for $1 mil great. I think he will get more than $1 mil from a team up against the cap that is looking for a 4th line center/winger 13th forward.
- -Doh-


I think the outrage is his 3 million plus per contract. At near 1 million, I like his determination, experience and skill-set.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Mar 8 @ 4:01 PM ET
Every time Crow let's in a soft goal the new mantra will be "He must be suffering from concussion issues" or "He does not look right at all". There were plenty of nights in the last 5 years where Crow let in soft goals. I guess that is why he is "not elite".

We need to start both Crow and Delia some of the remaining games to see what we have in both of them heading into the summer. It might give us a clearer picture for next year. It could affect roster decisions in the offseason.

- -Doh-


Crow has definitely not looked like Crow, but how many goalies would come back to immediately play at peak level for the amount of time he has been out the past 2 years? I have no illusions though of if Crow does play a full season next year that he will equal his play prior to his concussions. Plus he is will be 35 next year , and if fully healthy I would think he should play 50 games max.

That being said I admire his determination to play and compete. He could of (rightfully) stayed on LTIR for the rest of his contract.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Mar 8 @ 4:15 PM ET
Kruger is only 28. He plays with different line mates every night, some who could not score a goal on a breakaway with an empty net. I do not think his skills, speed, tenacity, IQ have changed. He was always limited offensively. I think in the right situation he could do ok. I would not have any problem signing him for another year at $1mil to $1.5 mil as a depth center/wing. He can play either wing or center or sit in the press box. Kind of a 13th forward. He is an experienced depth guy that loves Chicago and would be at a cheap price. If we are getting more defensive minded on the bottom 6 we could do worse. There is no heir apparent in Rockford.
- -Doh-

Kampf is already on the roster. Time to move on from Kruger.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Mar 8 @ 4:16 PM ET
Crow has definitely not looked like Crow, but how many goalies would come back to immediately play at peak level for the amount of time he has been out the past 2 years? I have no illusions though of if Crow does play a full season next year that he will equal his play prior to his concussions. Plus he is will be 35 next year , and if fully healthy I would think he should play 50 games max.

That being said I admire his determination to play and compete. He could of (rightfully) stayed on LTIR for the rest of his contract.

- LAHawk

Crow needs an off-season of training to hopefully get back to his previous levels.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Mar 8 @ 4:17 PM ET
Our pk wasn't bad last night, but our pp was bad. I said it would happen. 1 is good while the other 1 is bad and they alternate. Goaltending needs to be sorted out, and perform at a TOP level.

I'm excited to see the changes and maybe some different faces next season. I'm still watching, hoping for wins, and let the hawks draft wherever. I'm just always hopeful and optimistic, but I think next season will be better.

- I Am The Breadman

The Sabres PP sucks, tho.

Well, that looks obscene. It stays
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Mar 8 @ 4:17 PM ET
The best way to get a point across is to make it short and concise. For myself i have to edit for mistakes most which are the darn auto correct.

So the point worthy of discussion is below (eventually i will ask wiz his opinion). You can always disagree with wiz but anything related to drafting and trades he just is not going to be wrong - he culls knowledge from 30 plus years studying player development both on tape and eye test/compiling draft list.

Do you move down in first round if your own choice is #8-10; or if it is #11 -15. Your objective remember is to use what assets you have to get a veteran dman. You have decided btw not to meet that need by trading a key player like DeBrincat.

There is severe disappointment outside a top 5 or 6 overall. You still can choose what will become a likely core player but maybe - crap PROBABLY - not your difference maker star stud.

Bowman has two huge considerations if he is drafting outside top 5-6 overall.

The team needs the inevitable rookies breaking in to not always be paired with crappy dmen. Confidance to grow game and confidence to play well is aided tremendously by being paired with a descent veteran and a team-wide attention or responsible defensive play.

Better team defense allows for a better record. A potent pp and strong goaltending pushes you closer to playoffs and more revenue from ticket sales. That is point two consideration.

Now we know that everyone is always looking maybe first and foremost to improve their dmen corps. Just whom is dmen available by trading down.....we wait and see. If you go after a free agent dman, it may be a best strategy to ensure you get this player by paying handsomely asap before he is scooped up.

I really do not want to trade Gus (at least not yet). However I wonder if he was offered in an exchange of first round picks.....do you make that sort of trade? This may be our best opportunity to draft a top forward and or top power forward with a #5 - #8 in several years.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Mar 8 @ 4:47 PM ET
Question to all the advance stats guys, Is there a stat tracked like they have in baseball (WAR)? Or what would you consider to be the closest?
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Mar 8 @ 4:55 PM ET
Question to all the advance stats guys, Is there a stat tracked like they have in baseball (WAR)? Or what would you consider to be the closest?
- LAHawk

Here you go.

https://hockey-graphs.com/category/war/
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