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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Deadline Comes and Goes for Blackhawks
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glennjpawlak22
Joined: 11.26.2013

Feb 28 @ 5:21 PM ET
Last night was a game for Toews, Saad, Anisimov, Murphy and Caggiula before he was hurt. A slow, neutral zone clogging game.

Kane hates these games (a poster mentioned he was a ghost earlier in this thread). He wants room to skate and he wasn't allowed to...until he was.

That was a playoff game if only bad teams made it. Slow and grinding and the 'hawks won. That's a good sign. If they can upgrade in some areas, then they win playoff games.

- CanOCorn


So then the Question is...when playoffs start and games get much slower than reg season, do guys like Seabs become more valuable than they are in the Reg Season - see where i am going with this....
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Feb 28 @ 5:25 PM ET
How many guys hit the goalie in the chest or miss the net on that play last night? 90%+ IMO. Kane is a stone cold ice hockey assasin. You give him one look and he finishes. As long as the Hawks have Kane, Toews, Saad, and Debrincat playing at an ELITE level, they are ahead of 60% of the NHL just with the play of those 4. Get Strome to improve his skating, Kahun getting more comfortable in the NHL, Murphy growing, and some of the young Blueliners living up to their potential...Hawks are a playoff team.
- EnzoD


Great...another (frank)ing Kool-Aid drinker.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Feb 28 @ 5:27 PM ET
So then the Question is...when playoffs start and games get much slower than reg season, do guys like Seabs become more valuable than they are in the Reg Season - see where i am going with this....
- glennjpawlak22


Slower?
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Feb 28 @ 5:55 PM ET
Blackhawks GAA at even strength with the score close by month.

Oct - 3.08 9th highest in the NHL.
Nov - 3.01 9th highest in the NHL.
Dec - 3.45 5th highest in the NHL.
Jan - 3.20 11th highest in the NHL.
Feb - 2.94 12th highest in the NHL.

Goals for average for the same months at even strength (score close)

Oct - 5th highest 3.29
Nov - 29th highest 1.72
Dec - 11th highest 2.85
Jan - 24th highest 2.18
Feb - 1st highest 4.15

Here are the goaltending SV% for the same situations.

Oct - 23rd best - 90.27 SV%
Nov - 12th best 91.73 SV%
Dec - 21st best 90.55 SV%
Jan - 19th best 91.60 SV%
Feb - 16th best 91.88 SV%

And just to illustrate what the goalies had to deal with, High Danger Chances against

Oct - 3rd most - 13.67 per 60
Nov - 1st most - 14.76 per 60
Dec - 2nd most - 13.90 per 60
Jan - 1st most - 16.86 per 60
Feb - 2nd most - 15.79 per 60

- breadbag


So they just have to keep scoring 4 goals a game, no problem

Thanks for the monthly breakdown
RaleighHawk
Joined: 03.29.2016

Feb 28 @ 5:59 PM ET
That is probably the million dollar question. Both is my guess. I mean, the Hawks need some more depth and they also changed some of how they play the game, which may not be best or may take time to get right.

I think overall they need to be better in the neutral zone. Maybe that is on how they play, but I still think teams walk up the ice and get chances too easily. If they could shut down more plays in the middle and protect their blueline better, I think it would be a good improvement.

I could be remembering wrong, but I recall Keith used to do it a lot. Force turnovers in the middle, turn it around for a counter attack. I think the frequency of those types of plays has dropped a lot. I've never personally studied the zone entries against, but I don't think we are good at defending there. I think it turns into more time defending in their end, more shots against, more high danger chances against, more mistakes under pressure.

- breadbag

The high danger chances are nuts. In last nights game, they both gave away the blue line all night without resistance, and hard a hard time defending behind their net.
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Feb 28 @ 6:22 PM ET
I know many Hawks fans are loathe to trade our 1st round draft pick and normally I would agree that it isn't the best thing to do in a rebuilding situation, for at least a couple reasons. However, the Hawks are not in a normal rebuild because there is a limited window when T&K will still be at an elite level so the rebuild needs to be complete sooner than would normally be expected. Therefore, unless the Hawks win the draft lottery and get either Hughes or Kakko who most think can be ready to play in the NHL a year or two sooner than everyone else in the 2019 draft, I would advocate using the 1st round pick to speed up the rebuild to Cup contender status.

I don't have any specific trade proposals in mind but I think we could put together a package with that 1st round pick to get a legit top-4 d-man and/or a top-6 winger and speed up the process to contender status.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Feb 28 @ 6:24 PM ET
Playing with the likes of Kruger and Kampf for the most part? Yes, its beast mode.

Maybe he needs to throw a few hits for you or something.

Sporting a 53% Corsi on a team that bleeds shots. A CorRel of 5.4. Which means his team is far better when he is on the ice than not.

- Elbows15


Being on the third line and having success when he used to be a top six guy that had success, one would expect at his pay grade his numbers would be better across the board now. Facing weaker opposing players.

So yes, the team is far better with him on the ice - on the third line - .63 pts per game over the last 38 is decent.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Feb 28 @ 6:27 PM ET
Being on the third line and having success when he used to be a top six guy that had success, one would expect at his pay grade his numbers would be better across the board now. Facing weaker opposing players.

So yes, the team is far better with him on the ice - on the third line - .63 pts per game over the last 38 is decent.

- Return of the Roar


Who is Saad's salary preventing the Hawks from retaining or obtaining?
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Feb 28 @ 6:30 PM ET
Ok, but lets give them a little more time to improve before we just write them off for next year already. Even if they bring back mostly the same defense with maybe one addition, they should simply improve from having played the system for longer, and single player improvements. If they don't, like I said, I will start to worry about it next year. I just don't think a few months is enough, especially when you have a bunch of younger guys trying to learn the pro game at the same time that they are learning a new defensive scheme.
- ToewsdNKanefusd


This is the key - the numbers say the new system with the new players and the new coaches is generating more SOG against and 21% more GA. It's trending the wrong way as this season progresses.

I haven't written anything off - just trying to be realistic about how much actual change can happen when they have no money to spend. SB has to earn his money to move the team forward. Even his best efforts may only achieve very incremental results as everyone waits to see how many of the prospects have NHL potential. They literally cannot add ANY FA talent until two years or more from now, so any outside help has to come via hockey trades that are net positive.

holyJumpin_NL
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 10.29.2018

Feb 28 @ 6:33 PM ET
I know many Hawks fans are loathe to trade our 1st round draft pick and normally I would agree that it isn't the best thing to do in a rebuilding situation, for at least a couple reasons. However, the Hawks are not in a normal rebuild because there is a limited window when T&K will still be at an elite level so the rebuild needs to be complete sooner than would normally be expected. Therefore, unless the Hawks win the draft lottery and get either Hughes or Kakko who most think can be ready to play in the NHL a year or two sooner than everyone else in the 2019 draft, I would advocate using the 1st round pick to speed up the rebuild to Cup contender status.

I don't have any specific trade proposals in mind but I think we could put together a package with that 1st round pick to get a legit top-4 d-man and/or a top-6 winger and speed up the process to contender status.

- EbonyRaptor
. I agree, your logic is sound. I hope bowman don't rule it out. or even to swap first round picks, many times if a team don't get who they like at 8; they may get value in the 18 pick. this will be a very interesting draft
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Feb 28 @ 6:35 PM ET
Who is Saad's salary preventing the Hawks from retaining or obtaining?
- mohel


I am confident that has absolutely nothing to do with what I said.

I think what I was getting at is that it is nice that a guy making $6MM/yr has found a way to earn it with some degree of consistency.

I just wouldn't characterize it as "beastly" play. I would characterize it as him benefiting from matching up against weaker players. If that mismatch helps the team, great. Just don't overdo the praise when it isn't warranted.

Getting a guy to perform close to where he should be is the implicit expectation, not praise territory.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Feb 28 @ 6:48 PM ET
I am confident that has absolutely nothing to do with what I said.

I think what I was getting at is that it is nice that a guy making $6MM/yr has found a way to earn it with some degree of consistency.

I just wouldn't characterize it as "beastly" play. I would characterize it as him benefiting from matching up against weaker players. If that mismatch helps the team, great. Just don't overdo the praise when it isn't warranted.

Getting a guy to perform close to where he should be is the implicit expectation, not praise territory.

- Return of the Roar


Agreed.
PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Feb 28 @ 6:57 PM ET
Murphy growing, and some of the young Blueliners living up to their potential...Hawks are a playoff team.
- EnzoD


Murphy has played nearly 400gms in the NHl. He is who he is at this point, and IMO is at best a 5-7dman who shouldnt be playing more than 15-17 min a night on a good team.

I didnt mind the move at the time (moving Hjarllmarson for him) but I think Murphy is a "miss" and I wouldn't mind him moved in the off season
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Feb 28 @ 7:07 PM ET
That is probably the million dollar question. Both is my guess. I mean, the Hawks need some more depth and they also changed some of how they play the game, which may not be best or may take time to get right.

I think overall they need to be better in the neutral zone. Maybe that is on how they play, but I still think teams walk up the ice and get chances too easily. If they could shut down more plays in the middle and protect their blueline better, I think it would be a good improvement.

I could be remembering wrong, but I recall Keith used to do it a lot. Force turnovers in the middle, turn it around for a counter attack. I think the frequency of those types of plays has dropped a lot. I've never personally studied the zone entries against, but I don't think we are good at defending there. I think it turns into more time defending in their end, more shots against, more high danger chances against, more mistakes under pressure.

- breadbag

Shrink the ice gives the team more opportunity to flip it and have possession go the other way. Be proactive. Once the other team gains the blueline, especially if they were able to waltz in, then the strategy tends to be more reactive. Plus there's more real estate to cover if a turnover is forced to flip the ice all the way back to the Hawks offensive zone.
Matt_Foleys_bro
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.11.2012

Feb 28 @ 7:08 PM ET
Anyone hear an update on Caggiula? Timeframe?
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Feb 28 @ 7:12 PM ET
Murphy has played nearly 400gms in the NHl. He is who he is at this point, and IMO is at best a 5-7dman who shouldnt be playing more than 15-17 min a night on a good team.

I didnt mind the move at the time (moving Hjarllmarson for him) but I think Murphy is a "miss" and I wouldn't mind him moved in the off season

- PatShart


Maybe, this time last year I would’ve agreed. But he’s had some excellent nights this year (last night wasn’t one). Yet, as of today, he’s the “cream of the crap” after Keith for the Hawks blueline.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Feb 28 @ 7:19 PM ET
What term does he want? You have to look 3 years out and project where do you expect your own D prospects being? Bovquist, Beaudin, Joki, Carlsson, Galvas, Mitchell, Hillman, you know that Keith and Seabrook are more likely than not to still be here.
- LAHawk

Good question. Chiarot or say any available player worth considering that is relatively young still (Chiarot is late 20s) will want term likely in the 4-5 range. Longer if an elite player. I personally would give term to an elite player who is a bonafide 1st pair or a really solid #3.

Anyone lower as in Chiarot's case, I would not do more than 3 years and ideally 2 years if possible. So that said, not sure if Chiarot would do that given he is younger than 30 and is a pretty serviceable defender. Just not sure if he's best as 2nd pair or 3rd pair. Gut says 3rd.

Contrast that with those in their 30s like Stralman who is 33. A 2-year deal could be feasible.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Feb 28 @ 7:19 PM ET
What term does he want? You have to look 3 years out and project where do you expect your own D prospects being? Bovquist, Beaudin, Joki, Carlsson, Galvas, Mitchell, Hillman, you know that Keith and Seabrook are more likely than not to still be here.
- LAHawk

If the Hawks cycle in one prospect per year into the blueline, then you are right that spots need to be available for the next one. For example, Jokiharju in 2019-20, Boqvist in 2020-21, Mitchell in 2021-22, Beaudin in 2022-23, etc.

And that assumes there isn't a season where 2 prospects are ready in the same year including current Hog players like Carlsson, Gilbert, and Hillman.

As stated by others, a situation you don't want is an older player blocking a ready prospect from being in the lineup especially if the team would be better playing the youngster over the veteran.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Feb 28 @ 7:22 PM ET
Same old problems regarding moving Seabs. One, he had to waive his NMC, two, find a trading partner. If yes to part one, may need to take back an equally bad contract like someone like Lucic at 6M for 4 more years. Does that really put the Hawks in a better situation going forward?
- boilermaker100

I know others have different views on the answer to your question but I wouldn't trade Seabrook to just take on another bad contract. I'm in the camp that doesn't think Seabrook is on his death bed. Also think he can provide more value to the team than a Lucic would.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Feb 28 @ 7:31 PM ET
Tavares getting a NY welcome back on the Island LOL
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Feb 28 @ 7:33 PM ET
How many guys hit the goalie in the chest or miss the net on that play last night? 90%+ IMO. Kane is a stone cold ice hockey assasin. You give him one look and he finishes. As long as the Hawks have Kane, Toews, Saad, and Debrincat playing at an ELITE level, they are ahead of 60% of the NHL just with the play of those 4. Get Strome to improve his skating, Kahun getting more comfortable in the NHL, Murphy growing, and some of the young Blueliners living up to their potential...Hawks are a playoff team.
- EnzoD

Strome needs to get stronger in his core. Should help his stops and starts some. Which, given his age is to be expected. While everyone is quick to write off guys like Forsling, Dahlstrom and Special K, they are very young in terms of NHL experience. Maybe, just maybe mind you, there can be some organic improvements from that group. Not all but maybe one. Add in Joker and give JC a full training camp to implement a system he feels this group can possibly learn to play some semblance of defense and go from there.

Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Feb 28 @ 7:35 PM ET
I know many Hawks fans are loathe to trade our 1st round draft pick and normally I would agree that it isn't the best thing to do in a rebuilding situation, for at least a couple reasons. However, the Hawks are not in a normal rebuild because there is a limited window when T&K will still be at an elite level so the rebuild needs to be complete sooner than would normally be expected. Therefore, unless the Hawks win the draft lottery and get either Hughes or Kakko who most think can be ready to play in the NHL a year or two sooner than everyone else in the 2019 draft, I would advocate using the 1st round pick to speed up the rebuild to Cup contender status.

I don't have any specific trade proposals in mind but I think we could put together a package with that 1st round pick to get a legit top-4 d-man and/or a top-6 winger and speed up the process to contender status.

- EbonyRaptor

The Hawks shouldn't be trading any picks. Let alone a 1st round pick. JMO, but that is a good way to be struck in mediocrity. They need a rebuild. Its already started based on the picks taken in te 1st 2 rounds the last 2 drafts.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Feb 28 @ 7:41 PM ET
I know many Hawks fans are loathe to trade our 1st round draft pick and normally I would agree that it isn't the best thing to do in a rebuilding situation, for at least a couple reasons. However, the Hawks are not in a normal rebuild because there is a limited window when T&K will still be at an elite level so the rebuild needs to be complete sooner than would normally be expected. Therefore, unless the Hawks win the draft lottery and get either Hughes or Kakko who most think can be ready to play in the NHL a year or two sooner than everyone else in the 2019 draft, I would advocate using the 1st round pick to speed up the rebuild to Cup contender status.

I don't have any specific trade proposals in mind but I think we could put together a package with that 1st round pick to get a legit top-4 d-man and/or a top-6 winger and speed up the process to contender status.

- EbonyRaptor


I think the minute you accept the proposition that having something significant left in 19/88 is important for the Hawks to contend is the same minute you must conclude the addition of a lottery pick, absent Jeff Gilooly visiting Seabrook anytime soon, is the fastest way there.

2 and 7 aren’t moving, and they have no cap.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Feb 28 @ 7:49 PM ET
The Hawks shouldn't be trading any picks. Let alone a 1st round pick. JMO, but that is a good way to be struck in mediocrity. They need a rebuild. Its already started based on the picks taken in te 1st 2 rounds the last 2 drafts.
- Elbows15


I would consider an exchange of first round picks both in the #5-8 range. My idea is if you can then draft the forward you want, one who would complement the gtoup we have now. The top five or do picks are tough to ory away because they represent the top tier prospects.

If this forward is wirth trading for because you like how he fits in (hoping power forward), perhaps another GM likes whom he could draft with our pick and would accept Gus as renumeration for the exchange of picks. Gus represents an offensive weapon to help you win. That might help swing a trade. Of course have to see how the ping pong balls align and where teams choose before any such type trade.

LATE ADD. Very well could turn out Gus wii be better on pp than any prospect we wind up putting there. It is a gamblevto trade Gus. I could live with Gus on our thurd pair and pp specialist. Eventually we might have.a couple of guys ready to promote from AHL whom.could play well on a third pair. But ot all comes down to the future team and if you believe prospects will anchor your top two pairs. Joliharju and Beaudin i figure are likely while Boqvist is as well - but he is 2-3 years away. That leaves you with Carlsson/Mitchell/Gilbert/maybe Hillman and or Galvas as well. Kryz could be a wild card.
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Feb 28 @ 8:13 PM ET
This describes so many d-men in the league now. There is a severe shortage of top-4 d-men, and because of this the salaries being paid to borderline second pairing guys has become a little ridiculous. I think the league is in the process of transitioning again, like it did from wide-open hockey, to the Devils and their "left-wing lock" to the Hawks and solid D and high possession numbers, the Bruins and Kings with size and physicality, to the Penguins and Caps with a little more wide open Offense again.

It all goes in cycles, and we seem to be in one now where a lot of the young d-men coming into the league are more puck movers and offensive minded, while the emphasis on pure defensive d-men has dwindled. Maybe we need to start changing our perception of what a top-4 d-man should bring.

- TheTrob

3rd pairing and soild physical stay at home d man exactly what hawks need also since phily has logjam at d i would try and get morin or hagg need these type of d man to pair with smaller moblie d man coming up.
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