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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Not-So-Bold Trade Deadline Predictions for Blackhawks
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LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Feb 21 @ 8:36 PM ET
I think adding Kapanen qualifies as adding talent and unless the Hawks end up with a top-5 pick in 2020 (probably not considering they should be better next season) - they would be lucky to get a player that is NHL ready and as good as Kapanen. Also - Gardiner is UFA after this season and I doubt he's on the top of Lou's list to get re-signed - so, he gone. As is Hainsey most likely.
- EbonyRaptor


Ebony, Lou is on the Isle now, it is Kyle Dubas's show now.
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Feb 21 @ 8:41 PM ET
A top 5 team in a conference has as good a shot at a Cup as anyone.

Whether you like it or not luck plays a role. The stars have to align to win a Cup. All you can do is give yourself as many shots as possible.

I’m kind of lost on the thought process is Toronto wrong to have two franchise centres? Does this make them less or more likely to win a Cup?

- Blazed

It’s fine, except when you need to surround them with fringe NHLers and career AHLers.

We’ve seen it here for the last 10 years. The end sucks, unless you’ve won Cup(s).

Toronto doesn’t have the cap space to keep everyone they have, and resign everyone they want to keep. It’s the same reason the Hawks had to trade off players they wanted to keep, every freaking year, starting with Buff.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Feb 21 @ 8:41 PM ET
Don't you have to do your cardio .... on your hamster wheel?
- paulr


EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Feb 21 @ 8:41 PM ET
I get all that. I think if you are taking on Horton's cap hit you wouldn't need to include a 1st. Taking on $5M even for one season has a lot of value.

Maybe a 2nd like someone else suggested but a first and Gus seems like a lot. Too much IMHO.

- HawkintheD


Sure - if it can done for less - great, but I was putting out the high water mark thinking it may take that much to outbid other teams.
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Feb 21 @ 8:43 PM ET
Ebony, Lou is on the Isle now, it is Kyle Dubas's show now.
- LAHawk


Oops - I knew that. I edited my post.
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Feb 21 @ 8:49 PM ET
I like Kapanen don't get me wrong but I really don't want to see a bottom 15 team trading draft picks.
- paulr


So it's a principle thing? You would rather take your chances on drafting a guy who may end up being as good as Kapanen (after a couple years of seasoning) or could end up being some shleprock that never sees the NHL rather than using the 1st to acquire a top-6 winger with all the attributes we're looking for?
Blazed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 07.18.2012

Feb 21 @ 8:50 PM ET
It’s fine, except when you need to surround them with fringe NHLers and career AHLers.

We’ve seen it here for the last 10 years. The end sucks, unless you’ve won Cup(s).

Toronto doesn’t have the cap space to keep everyone they have, and resign everyone they want to keep. It’s the same reason the Hawks had to trade off players they wanted to keep, every freaking year, starting with Buff.

- scottak


I get what you’re saying, I just don’t think they will ever be surrounded by fringe NHLers. Beyond the two centres the reason ‘cap issues’ exist is also having two elite wingers in Marner and Nylander (he will be you’ll see don’t pick this part to argue).

They key to long term success of Toronto will be if they can consistently draft and develop, Johnsson/Dermott/Brown level players.

If they can do that they will have a perpetual depth pipeline. With their financial resources it should be an absolutely attainable goal. They don’t need to hit homeruns (Pasternak) they just need to make sure they’re getting some capable replacements.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Feb 21 @ 8:55 PM ET
So it's a principle thing? You would rather take your chances on drafting a guy who may end up being as good as Kapanen (after a couple years of seasoning) or could end up being some shleprock that never sees the NHL rather than using the 1st to acquire a top-6 winger with all the attributes we're looking for?
- EbonyRaptor


I'd like both but like Paul am hesitant to give up the 1st rounder. You're right, it's always a crapshoot, but the Hawks have demonstrated decent acumen drafting in the first round.
Blazed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 07.18.2012

Feb 21 @ 8:59 PM ET
I'd like both but like Paul am hesitant to give up the 1st rounder. You're right, it's always a crapshoot, but the Hawks have demonstrated decent acumen drafting in the first round.
- HawkintheD


I agree with you, very hesistant ever trading a first.

A late gem like a Barzal or Pastrnak can make a re-tool instead of a rebuild a legitimate option.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Feb 21 @ 9:06 PM ET
So it's a principle thing? You would rather take your chances on drafting a guy who may end up being as good as Kapanen (after a couple years of seasoning) or could end up being some shleprock that never sees the NHL rather than using the 1st to acquire a top-6 winger with all the attributes we're looking for?
- EbonyRaptor

Not really the principal, I think Kapanen is a good player but I don't think he'll be a special player. The first round, especially early , is where you find special players. Now if i thought the Hawks would be in the top 10 in the NHL I'd be more comfortable seeing them trade a first for Kapanen. And I think the Hawks are closer to being a lottery team at the moment.

Now IF the Hawks were to offer sheet Marner and have to give up the draft picks I'd love to see that because Marner is already a special player.
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Feb 21 @ 9:07 PM ET
I get what you’re saying, I just don’t think they will ever be surrounded by fringe NHLers. Beyond the two centres the reason ‘cap issues’ exist is also having two elite wingers in Marner and Nylander (he will be you’ll see don’t pick this part to argue).

They key to long term success of Toronto will be if they can consistently draft and develop, Johnsson/Dermott/Brown level players.

If they can do that they will have a perpetual depth pipeline. With their financial resources it should be an absolutely attainable goal. They don’t need to hit homeruns (Pasternak) they just need to make sure they’re getting some capable replacements.

- Blazed


At this point you're probably tired of all my "yeah but..." responses - but here's another one.

The Hawks were in essentially the same position where there was an established core group and the plan was to continue replacing the non-core group players as they needed to be resigned to be replaced by draft picks and young inexpensive players acquired by trading those non-core players being cycled out. The fly in the ointment of that plan is that all the other team know they have you over a barrel so you never get as much in the trades as expected - plus you're drafting at the low end of the round and hitting on draft picks in the 20's is more miss than hit in terms of getting top-9/top-4 guys.
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Feb 21 @ 9:12 PM ET
Not really the principal, I think Kapanen is a good player but I don't think he'll be a special player. The first round, especially early , is where you find special players. Now if i thought the Hawks would but I the top 10 in the NHL I'd be more comfortable seeing them trade a first for Kapanen. And I think the Hawks are closer to being a lottery team at the moment.

Now IF the Hawks were to offer sheet Marner and have to give up the draft picks I'd love to see that because Marner is already a special player.

- paulr


The proposal had the 1st pick in 2020 - not 2019. The thought process is that the Hawks are borderline playoff team now and should be better next season so the probability of the Hawks having one of more ping pong balls in the 2020 draft is pretty remote.

Another consideration is that we hope to be competitive while T&K and still playing at a high level, with 2020/21 probably being the season we're shooting for. Kapanen will be a 24 year old in his prime. The 2020 1st round draft pick probably won;t even be in the NHL in 2020/21 much less an experienced and productive piece of the team.
Blazed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 07.18.2012

Feb 21 @ 9:15 PM ET
At this point you're probably tired of all my "yeah but..." responses - but here's another one.

The Hawks were in essentially the same position where there was an established core group and the plan was to continue replacing the non-core group players as they needed to be resigned to be replaced by draft picks and young inexpensive players acquired by trading those non-core players being cycled out. The fly in the ointment of that plan is that all the other team know they have you over a barrel so you never get as much in the trades as expected - plus you're drafting at the low end of the round and hitting on draft picks in the 20's is more miss than hit in terms of getting top-9/top-4 guys.

- EbonyRaptor


To be fair none of the three examples I mentioned were first round picks, Toronto has a recent history of drafting solid depth guys. Ultimately I think their success will depend on that continuing.

As for over the barrel I don’t really buy that at all. That is more for cap teams with horrible contracts.

If Toronto decides they are indeed in cap hell and want to shed salary, hypothetically Kadri goes on the block. Does he only receive low-ball offers? No a group of interested teams would make competitive offers against each other.

Connor Brown would require no incentive to trade. He could bring a depth draft pick back this week if they wanted.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Feb 21 @ 9:15 PM ET
I wouldn't mind if the Leafs won. They don't bother me, but also, I don't live in TOR and I know a Leaf Cup would be completely unbearable for Paul and Rick...so yeah, I'm for it!
- HawkintheD

Tonight's game is very enjoyable - Leafs trailing 3-1 with 9 minutes to go.

Zaitsev graduated from the same school as Gus - Turnover U.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Feb 21 @ 9:21 PM ET
Tonight's game is very enjoyable - Leafs trailing 3-1 with 9 minutes to go.

Zaitsev graduated from the same school as Gus - Turnover U.

- RickJ

Gardiner was pathetic on the second goal. So weak on the puck. Leafs have to improve on the back end
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Feb 21 @ 9:22 PM ET
To be fair none of the three examples I mentioned were first round picks, Toronto has a recent history of drafting solid depth guys. Ultimately I think their success will depend on that continuing.

As for over the barrel I don’t really buy that at all. That is more for cap teams with horrible contracts.

If Toronto decides they are indeed in cap hell and want to shed salary, hypothetically Kadri goes on the block. Does he only receive low-ball offers? No a group of interested teams would make competitive offers against each other.

Connor Brown would require no incentive to trade. He could bring a depth draft pick back this week if they wanted.

- Blazed


Well, if nothing else I admire your optimism and your refusal to be swayed by my jaded and jaundiced attitude.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Feb 21 @ 9:23 PM ET
Tonight's game is very enjoyable - Leafs trailing 3-1 with 9 minutes to go.

Zaitsev graduated from the same school as Gus - Turnover U.

- RickJ


Trading Gus to TOR would be like winning the lottery for you I'm guessing.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Feb 21 @ 9:26 PM ET
The proposal had the 1st pick in 2020 - not 2019. The thought process is that the Hawks are borderline playoff team now and should be better next season so the probability of the Hawks having one of more ping pong balls in the 2020 draft is pretty remote.

Another consideration is that we hope to be competitive while T&K and still playing at a high level, with 2020/21 probably being the season we're shooting for. Kapanen will be a 24 year old in his prime. The 2020 1st round draft pick probably won;t even be in the NHL in 2020/21 much less an experienced and productive piece of the team.

- EbonyRaptor

While I still think the Hawks will be a borderline team next season, I'll give that to you. The Hawks needs aren't another forward, it's 2, 3 or even 4 defenseman. Without improving the defense, Kapanen or even Marner doesn't improve the team enough to be a cup contender.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Feb 21 @ 9:27 PM ET
I think this gem from Oscar Gamble pretty much sums up the LEaf cap situation for out visitor.
Blazed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 07.18.2012

Feb 21 @ 9:28 PM ET
Well, if nothing else I admire your optimism and your refusal to be swayed by my jaded and jaundiced attitude.
- EbonyRaptor

RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Feb 21 @ 9:31 PM ET
Trading Gus to TOR would be like winning the lottery for you I'm guessing.
- HawkintheD

Actually Gus doesnt bother me too much unless he dogs it after a bad giveaway. He really is no worse than Jake Gardner or Jordan Oesterle or Kevin Shattenkirk. Not one of them can play defence.
scott.jackson
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Georgian Bluffs, ON
Joined: 06.24.2014

Feb 21 @ 9:34 PM ET
Marner at 9 even for just 5 years would be a great deal.
- Blazed



For Toronto it would be. He is getting 11M. If he doesn't he will sign the offer sheet the Uncle Lou gives him.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Feb 21 @ 9:45 PM ET
For Toronto it would be. He is getting 11M. If he doesn't he will sign the offer sheet the Uncle Lou gives him.
- scott.jackson

Id argue Marner is the Leafs' best player and should sign for no less than Matthews.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Feb 21 @ 9:48 PM ET
For Toronto it would be. He is getting 11M. If he doesn't he will sign the offer sheet the Uncle Lou gives him.
- scott.jackson

Another dream from Leafland - Marner signing for $9M - $2.6M less than Mathews.

He has been their best player all year, why agree to a discounted contract? As you indicate, he wont.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Feb 21 @ 9:51 PM ET
I can leave if you want I originally to popped in after watching the game last night to say what a beauty Kane was.

Just chatting hockey, cleared up some misinformation, tossed in some opinions. Sorry to bother ya bud?

- Blazed


Honestly good luck, i thought we would be fine as well, it was a rough go, so many good players we had to either trade, or trade with a player with a bad contract. This hard cap sucks.
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