The first one, because Myers would be gone in 2 months, and we have Bogo for 14 more
- jcragcrumple

It’s the first one regardless, by a mile.

Especially if you are going to argue the “value of picks” past pick 15 or whatever.

Roslovic> Pick 29

Myers + Armia + BL >>>>>> Bogo

This is the side of the coin the “trade the picks” crowd ignores.

By not trading our picks three years ago we’d actually have four NHL players instead of some meh memories of Evander Kane and often injured Bogo.

Trading picks is a short term gain. Long term loss.

This team is in it for the long term

Dan Bylsma begs to differ (hides).
- buffalofan19

Good take 19, funny.

The first one, because Myers would be gone in 2 months, and we have Bogo for 14 more
- jcragcrumple

This is a fine take

This is a fine take
- IonSabres

It’s also irrelevant to the discussion at hand

It’s the first one regardless, by a mile.

Especially if you are going to argue the “value of picks” past pick 15 or whatever.

Roslovic> Pick 29

Myers + Armia + BL >>>>>> Bogo

This is the side of the coin the “trade the picks” crowd ignores.

By not trading our picks three years ago we’d actually have four NHL players instead of some meh memories of Evander Kane and often injured Bogo.

Trading picks is a short term gain. Long term loss.

This team is in it for the long term
- sbroads24

So I see you conveniently forgot that the trade, in large part but not completely led to the drafting of Eichel. So, shouldn't you list Eichel with the Bogo side.
And by further extension, since Bogo completely blew for 3 years, should you then add in Mitts, since they likely would have finished lower that year as well?
I mean, come on man...although I do want to retain all the picks this year and even get more by selling virtually anything in the non-core ... may be able to package picks to move up twice !,!

So I see you conveniently forgot that the trade, in large part but not completely led to the drafting of Eichel. So, shouldn't you list Eichel with the Bogo side.
And by further extension, since Bogo completely blew for 3 yezrs, should you then add in Mitts, since wevlikely would have finished higher that yeaf as well?
I mean, comeon man...although I do want to retain all the pucks this year and even get more by selling virtually anything in the non-core ... may be able to package picks to move up twice !,!
- IonSabres

That team was getting Eichel regardless of the trade.

That team was getting Eichel regardless of the trade.
- buffalofan19

Well, only because Murray would have shot at center ice anyone that tried to win, I mean he sold off several decent players, including all goaltenders that could stop a beach ball.

So I see you conveniently forgot that the trade, in large part but not completely led to the drafting of Eichel. So, shouldn't you list Eichel with the Bogo side.
And by further extension, since Bogo completely blew for 3 years, should you then add in Mitts, since they likely would have finished lower that year as well?
I mean, come on man...although I do want to retain all the picks this year and even get more by selling virtually anything in the non-core ... may be able to package picks to move up twice !,!
- IonSabres

We need to stop pretending that trade got us Eichel. It didn’t

It’s the first one regardless, by a mile.

Especially if you are going to argue the “value of picks” past pick 15 or whatever.

Roslovic> Pick 29

Myers + Armia + BL >>>>>> Bogo

This is the side of the coin the “trade the picks” crowd ignores.

By not trading our picks three years ago we’d actually have four NHL players instead of some meh memories of Evander Kane and often injured Bogo.

Trading picks is a short term gain. Long term loss.

This team is in it for the long term
- sbroads24

I don't care about any of those 4. Two of them I'd rather not have at all.

I agree that Roslovic gets the slight edge over pick #29, but his 16 points doesn't really move the needle for me too far.

If the Sabres had none of them, and just had the cap space, that would be fine with me.

Well, only because Murray would have shot at center ice anyone that tried to win, I mean he sold off several decent players, including all goaltenders that could stop a beach ball.
- IonSabres

That or he would’ve just traded Stafford a pending UFA for a pick.

I don't care about any of those 4. Two of them I'd rather not have at all.

I agree that Roslovic gets the slight edge over pick #29, but his 16 points doesn't really move the needle for me too far.

If the Sabres had none of them, and just had the cap space, that would be fine with me.
- jcragcrumple

They do have none of them. They also don’t have Kane, 3 years after making the “trade the picks and prospects” deal happened.

That’s the point.

https://www.capfriendly.c.../armchair-gm/team/1037813

I hate any trade including risto but this is enticing, and somewhat realistic.

They do have none of them. They also don’t have Kane, 3 years after making the “trade the picks and prospects” deal happened.

That’s the point.
- sbroads24

No, they have Bogo, and under the alternative, they have the Myers contract. Both scenarios have some bad, some mediocre and a sprinkle of promise. It's really a wash. The Sabres have a chance to hit a home run (almost certainly won't) and the Jets have a higher floor with Ros and Lemieux. Both choices are pretty underwhelming

No, they have Bogo, and under the alternative, they have the Myers contract. Both scenarios have some bad, some mediocre and a sprinkle of promise. It's really a wash. The Sabres have a chance to hit a home run (almost certainly won't) and the Jets have a higher floor with Ros and Lemieux. Both choices are pretty underwhelming
- jcragcrumple

But there is absolutely a right choice in this scenario.

And it’s the one that includes the better D man, good 3rd liner, promising young player and a 4th liner on pace for 18 goals (he’s shooting at a ridiculously high %)

As opposed to one lottery pick and Bogo.

After Skinner, this team can fit one more large contract (long term). Certainly not two, unless your intention is to send Reinhart to NJ for Hall.
- TheSabresTaco

Sam’s value has never been higher
If we don’t wanna pay him the gig bucks on his next deal,
they should consider moving him this offseason

Good stuff Taco, thank you for posting. I think that at the end of the season if those picks fall from the present, particularly the 15 and 16 selections, Botts might be willing to trade them.

If he keeps them, I really like Kaliyev a lot and if available at 15, I would pick him. Some mocks have him around 11. If Botts is looking at D, Moritz Seider (6'4" 185 RD) who has a strong two way game and will take the body any chance he can. He has a strong outlet pass but admittedly needs to add muscle. I can see Botts also have interest in Swede Viktor Soderstrom (5'11" RD). A speedy d man who has developed a nice two way game and is logging big minutes in the SHL.

Besides Kaliyev, at 15/16 some other forward possibilities are Suzuki, as you mentioned along with Raphael Lavoie, who I am starting to like more and more. Cole Caufield and Trevor Zigras. As far as Boldy is concerned, I have seen some mocks that have him as a top 10 and others down in that 15-20 range. As for the San Jose pick, I like Albin Grewe, Bobby Brink and Connor McMichael.
- mhp

Keep it rolling, guys. I love all the prospect talk. Every year, there’s guys who rise and fall. It appeared the Isles were beneficiaries last year. Maybe in the same spots the Sabres will occupy this year.

https://www.capfriendly.c.../armchair-gm/team/1037813

I hate any trade including risto but this is enticing, and somewhat realistic.
- Sabre_Tooth

It's not bad. I can't see JB dealing 2 1st's though. There's not enough talent here to start dealing firsts and making so many huge, long-term commitments.

It’s the first one regardless, by a mile.

Especially if you are going to argue the “value of picks” past pick 15 or whatever.

Roslovic> Pick 29

Myers + Armia + BL >>>>>> Bogo

This is the side of the coin the “trade the picks” crowd ignores.

By not trading our picks three years ago we’d actually have four NHL players instead of some meh memories of Evander Kane and often injured Bogo.

Trading picks is a short term gain. Long term loss.

This team is in it for the long term
- sbroads24

This whole line of thinking is only true if you hit on your picks

You know the % on mid-low 1st rounders & how they tend to turn out

But there is absolutely a right choice in this scenario.

And it’s the one that includes the better D man, good 3rd liner, promising young player and a 4th liner on pace for 18 goals (he’s shooting at a ridiculously high %)

As opposed to one lottery pick and Bogo.
- sbroads24

Yeah, I agree it's a better choice, but for me, it's mainly just because the Myers contract ends this year, and Blowgo goes on.

We need to stop pretending that trade got us Eichel. It didn’t
- sbroads24

The kane trade definitely helped get eichel

Higher than any of our picks unless we bundle and trade up. And the articles I'm reading says that this years draft is great through 12 or 13 but drops off pretty heavy at that point.

So I would rather bundle the picks for prospects or whatever. Not use them for "drop off talent"


- Der Kaiser

These are historical rates though. I think each tier has a 10-15% higher success rate even if you look at the last 4 drafts. 2014 from picks 20-31 had a hit rate of almost 60% and that was supposedly the worst draft in a long time. The league is getting younger, faster, more skilled. Star players are making the big money out of ELC’s now and had to wait till their third contract to cash in before. The middle class is getting fazed out. Productive players on ELC will be just as important as the star players themselves to provide depth (see Toronto, Winnipeg, Tampa). I’m not saying every pick is going to be a top 6 FWD or top 4 D. Even getting a young skilled 4th line on ELC will be ever more important when we are spending to the cap.

This whole line of thinking is only true if you hit on your picks

You know the % on mid-low 1st rounders & how they tend to turn out
- jdfitz77

It’s actually just pointing out how trading the low % picks and prospects for “NHL ready” or good players can net you zilch as well in the long term.

I have no interest in any short term fixes.

They want to get a 20-22 year old in that range, sure. Not a guy a few years away from UFA status. Not for 1st’s and prospects

The kane trade definitely helped get eichel
- Boss34

Nah.

Murray traded two NHL’ers. Myers and Stafford.

Bogo replaces Myers, Stafford could have been traded as a rental at any time

It meant literally nothing towards getting Eichel

https://www.capfriendly.c.../armchair-gm/team/1037813

I hate any trade including risto but this is enticing, and somewhat realistic.
- Sabre_Tooth

I like this as well. Prying Roslovic will be difficult though.

These are historical rates though. I think each tier has a 10-15% higher success rate even if you look at the last 4 drafts. 2014 from picks 20-31 had a hit rate of almost 60% and that was supposedly the worst draft in a long time. The league is getting younger, faster, more skilled. Star players are making the big money out of ELC’s now and had to wait till their third contract to cash in before. The middle class is getting fazed out. Productive players on ELC will be just as important as the star players themselves to provide depth (see Toronto, Winnipeg, Tampa). I’m not saying every pick is going to be a top 6 FWD or top 4 D. Even getting a young skilled 4th line on ELC will be ever more important when we are spending to the cap.
- Pegullaville

Those picks that are increasingly "hitting," are like you (very elequently) said, a result of the decline of the middle class. They're disposable, cheap labor. I would venture a guess to say those players will drop out of the league at a faster pace than previously, as they will continue to be replaced by cheap, disposable labor. The value of ELCs rises, but the value of performing stars is constant