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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: The Importance of Connor Murphy
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Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Feb 6 @ 12:49 PM ET
Name one young elite forward who has reached UFA? Oh wait, that's right nobody is a UFA until they're 27 or older because of RFA rules.

Mark Stone and Matt Duchene are both approaching the end of their prime. Are we going to overpay and overterm them instead of getting a top draft pick?

Panarin is genuinely elite, but he's going to command $10M+.

The next year has Taylor Hall, who will be 28. Besides him there's not much at UFA.

The next year has Landeskog and Gallagher, but no elite under 30 guys.

What team is going to trade the Hawks an elite forward? Winners are build through the draft. You can try to be the Rangers and buy your talent, but you won't win jack.

- ObeseOprah


OK, but we signed Panarin form Russia for peanuts. Stone was originally a 6th round pick., ADB second rd pick. There is a long list of high end players that were not top 5 choices. I get there are higher odds at the top of the draft, but by no means are they a sure thing.

Who knows, maybe Kubalik ends up a top six guy. Jake Wise (if he ever gets healthy) could be a big steal in the second. Are you sure that all of the top 5 picks will be elite forwards in the NHL, and furthermore within the next year or two?
There are more ways to get high end talent than just a top 5 draft choice.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Feb 6 @ 12:50 PM ET
So is your contention that they should have tanked the game? Not show up? Forfeit? Play the whole game without a goalie? Instead of Tkachuk, they have Boquist. Who is to say that Boquist will not be the better overall player?
- Chunk


They should sell high on Gus to nerf the pp. Move AA and see if they can get a top pairing defender for Saad +.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Feb 6 @ 12:53 PM ET
OK, but we signed Panarin form Russia for peanuts. Stone was originally a 6th round pick., ADB second rd pick. There is a long list of high end players that were not top 5 choices. I get there are higher odds at the top of the draft, but by no means are they a sure thing.

Who knows, maybe Kubalik ends up a top six guy. Jake Wise (if he ever gets healthy) could be a big steal in the second. Are you sure that all of the top 5 picks will be elite forwards in the NHL, and furthermore within the next year or two?
There are more ways to get high end talent than just a top 5 draft choice.

- Chunk


The grim reality is that there are no Panarins, Stones, or Hedmans anywhere in the system. John Hayden will not be Mark Stone.

If you wait too long developing players, now you come to market with some guys that miss the remaining 19/88 window. Miss that window and NOW you need new 19/88 prospects.....
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Feb 6 @ 1:00 PM ET
Boqvist has yet to play games against men. Jury very much out on him and all of the other D prospects.

They have no power forwards anywhere in their system to fill the real holes in the lineup. If you have 19/88, 12/17 and 20/91 across three lines (a pretty strong group to build around), and fill those spots with a little nasty.....then they have a group that can keep the puck in the zone and tilt the ice back to the opponents' zones most nights. That reverses the SOG situation and the pressure is relieved from the D.

Do that, make the fourth line out of the best of the Rockford guys, and somehow find at least one more D guy in the Hedman mold... now you are talking.

It is about time to market - to benefit from whatever 19/88 have left in the tank, they need to focus on prospects that can play NHL hockey today - not in two/three years.

- Return of the Roar


Right now 91 is the nasty on line 1. When the Hawks won the cup how many nasty guys did they really have, 1-2? I'm not saying that type of player is not needed, but there is more than one way to build a contender.

You are right that Boqvist has not yet played against men, but the fact remains that he COULD still end up being the better overall player. Not to mention the fact that regardless of how poorly the team finishes, there is still a lottery to contend with.

If you are looking for time to market, why is the draft the best route to go?
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Feb 6 @ 1:02 PM ET
The grim reality is that there are no Panarins, Stones, or Hedmans anywhere in the system. John Hayden will not be Mark Stone.

If you wait too long developing players, now you come to market with some guys that miss the remaining 19/88 window. Miss that window and NOW you need new 19/88 prospects.....

- Return of the Roar



I'm no expert, but how do you know this?
ObeseOprah
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 01.17.2014

Feb 6 @ 1:02 PM ET
OK, but we signed Panarin form Russia for peanuts. Stone was originally a 6th round pick., ADB second rd pick. There is a long list of high end players that were not top 5 choices. I get there are higher odds at the top of the draft, but by no means are they a sure thing.

Who knows, maybe Kubalik ends up a top six guy. Jake Wise (if he ever gets healthy) could be a big steal in the second. Are you sure that all of the top 5 picks will be elite forwards in the NHL, and furthermore within the next year or two?
There are more ways to get high end talent than just a top 5 draft choice.

- Chunk



Panarin, Stone, ADB, Kucherov, etc. are all exceptions to the rule. You want a high-probability impact talent? Get a very high draft pick.

You want guys who might pan out, might never make it to the NHL? Keep drafting in the late teens and twenties.

Jake Wise's season is over, and he was awful before he got hurt. I am not writing him off, but until proven otherwise I'm not considering him anywhere near ready.

To answer your question, no I'm not sure that any of the top 5 picks are going to be an elite forward. Are they much more likely than the other forwards in the draft? Yes. The same way that McDavid, Eichel, Draisaitl, Matthews, Laine, MacKinnon, Petterson, have all become impact players from the top 5.

These guys weren't found in Russia, or plucked from UFA status, or traded as some odd favor to the Hawks. They're drafted by a team that understands the extreme value of a top five pick.

A top five pick costs us nothing, as opposed to a trade or massive overpayment in UFA. The only thing it costs us is stupid pride during a down year.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Feb 6 @ 1:04 PM ET
They should sell high on Gus to nerf the pp. Move AA and see if they can get a top pairing defender for Saad +.
- fattybeef


Got it. They should get rid of all the guys that everyone here thinks are horrible.
333inthe3rd
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 02.04.2015

Feb 6 @ 1:04 PM ET
I seem to remember Murphy was playing hurt last year. He was wait and see for me. It is a shame if Q did take out his frustrations on Murphy. I know Hammer was his guy, but still. I believed that in the first year the trade made the team worse, and that the return could potentially get greater through the duration of his contract. Dahlstrom has been a surprise, also, as Murphy's partner. I would guess it helped that JC fully understood his game before bringing him up.

scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Feb 6 @ 1:05 PM ET
I'm figuring that will be the argument too but it's very hard to dispute Q's methods when he guided the team to 3 cups. We know for certain what Q did worked. A theory telling us another would have worked too, is just a theory. As a Hawk fan I'll take the cup wins over some guys theory any day.
- paulr

I’d Q didn’t ride the top 4 D in 2015 there is no way that team wins the Cup. You wanted Kimo taking a regular shift?
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Feb 6 @ 1:06 PM ET
Panarin, Stone, ADB, Kucherov, etc. are all exceptions to the rule. You want a high-probability impact talent? Get a very high draft pick.

You want guys who might pan out, might never make it to the NHL? Keep drafting in the late teens and twenties.

Jake Wise's season is over, and he was awful before he got hurt. I am not writing him off, but until proven otherwise I'm not considering him anywhere near ready.

To answer your question, no I'm not sure that any of the top 5 picks are going to be an elite forward. Are they much more likely than the other forwards in the draft? Yes. The same way that McDavid, Eichel, Draisaitl, Matthews, Laine, MacKinnon, Petterson, have all become impact players from the top 5.

These guys weren't found in Russia, or plucked from UFA status, or traded as some odd favor to the Hawks. They're drafted by a team that understands the extreme value of a top five pick.

A top five pick costs us nothing, as opposed to a trade or massive overpayment in UFA. The only thing it costs us is stupid pride during a down year.

- ObeseOprah


OK, I'll go back to my original question... How do you tank? Do you tell the players to lay down? Healthy scratch Kane? Trade Toews for a bag of pucks? Also, how do you make sure you end up in the top 5?
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Feb 6 @ 1:07 PM ET
It a sad day when you quit on your favorite team, under the guise it for the best long term .Tomorrow is not guaranteed folks , never will be . I am cheering for this team till the last shovel of dirt is thrown on the casket , really why not wait till the math nerds say their done . Then you let the balls fall were they will ,with the knowledge your team played hard to the end . I think the Hockey Gods like that stuff ,and they are real , just ask Don Cherry and the Canadian Jr. team . Nothing better then going into the playoffs as a huge underdog ,play with no pressure and tell all the so called experts to shove it . These old guys (their still kids in my 50 plus mind ) gave us some much over the years , we owe them a some respect and support down stretch . GO HAWKS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- oldduffman


Funny Hawks are winning and now you're sad when others quit on the team. Why? Who cares? Do i trust my team? More so than i did in the beginning of the year. Do i think they will be in the playoffs this year? No. It doesn't mean i want them to lose, in fact im like Sybil, i want them to get a great draft pick, but when i watch them i always want them to win. Just because I'm not a rah rah guy doesn't make me any less of a fan, big difference between us is i hold players accountable for bad play and you don't. I hope they keep building and nurturing this team, that's how championship teams are built
z1990z
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NW USA
Joined: 02.09.2012

Feb 6 @ 1:09 PM ET
They should sell high on Gus to nerf the pp. Move AA and see if they can get a top pairing defender for Saad +.
- fattybeef



Problem is Gus is the only D we have that is a true weapon on the PP. Gus's play has been one of the factors in this improved PP. The return would have to be really good. I for one would not trade him.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Feb 6 @ 1:11 PM ET
Bread, that's what is needed to win three cups. You have to ride your horses. Am I misunderstanding what you are saying? None of us were complaining about their usage 2015 and prior when we were going on runs.
- nickmo2699

I somewhat agree. You want to run with your horses but you don't want to run them to the ground either. The playoffs is a different animal and is often termed as a war of attrition.

Playoff contenders need depth which means playing that depth because you know they can contribute in whatever roles they play, especially if there is an injury or two or three as each round progresses.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Feb 6 @ 1:11 PM ET
Right now 91 is the nasty on line 1. When the Hawks won the cup how many nasty guys did they really have, 1-2? I'm not saying that type of player is not needed, but there is more than one way to build a contender.

You are right that Boqvist has not yet played against men, but the fact remains that he COULD still end up being the better overall player. Not to mention the fact that regardless of how poorly the team finishes, there is still a lottery to contend with.

If you are looking for time to market, why is the draft the best route to go?

- Chunk


Hmmm, who was nasty before...Hossa, Bolland, Bickell, Buff, Madden to name a few. One or more on each line at some point. Saad played a much heavier game too before he got paid. Toews played a heavier game before he got hurt.

Don't underestimate the illness of Bickell as a HUGE change in the fortunes of the Hawks. If he were healthy he would be the Stone type guy on the top six today.

Boqvist is at least a year away to determine if he has the right stuff - if they manage him responsibly.

FA is fastest time to market (bu they have no chips and no cap space), followed by high draft pick (which you get through trade or tanking), followed by player development, which takes a much longer time.

It really is about how much time 19/88 have left. If you want another run with them, you must prioritize time to market solutions. If that is not the goal then you can take a longer view and be more patient.

They just need to pick a lane and stay in it.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Feb 6 @ 1:11 PM ET
Exactly why the Hawks fell from #4 to #8 in the draft. False pride. They would have Tkachuk today were it not for their desire to stick to STL last year.

Water seeks its own level, and after the scrub swing is over they will come back down to earth.

In a cap controlled league there is no honor in overacheivement.

- Return of the Roar

Real pride, I would guess - and hope.

Players don’t like to lose - and shouldn’t like it - and should always play to win.

I’m not sure why fans of the tank can’t understand that.
glennjpawlak22
Joined: 11.26.2013

Feb 6 @ 1:12 PM ET
I’d Q didn’t ride the top 4 D in 2015 there is no way that team wins the Cup. You wanted Kimo taking a regular shift?
- scottak


you should have omitted the word "regular"

You had me until i read the word "regular"

Corrected: You wanted Kimo taking a shift?
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Feb 6 @ 1:12 PM ET
Someone on the Oilers board predicted a 7-2 Hawks win. Pretty close call. The Oil completely imploded but other than the powerplay goals, didn't look that good. Maybe it was the Hawks looked much hungrier.

One negative thing I noticed was Dahlstrom completely bailing out in corners when Lucic/Kassian was going for the puck. Kunitz is a step behind; I would much rather have Perlini playing.

- Popsghostly

He wasn’t the only one.
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Feb 6 @ 1:13 PM ET
Problem is Gus is the only D we have that is a true weapon on the PP. Gus's play has been one of the factors in this improved PP. The return would have to be really good. I for one would not trade him.
- z1990z

Good prospect and a 1st would you trade gust then
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Feb 6 @ 1:14 PM ET
I just do not think that Hayden has the speed, hands, and hockey IQ to play on the top two lines. Also he needs to learn to play better in our Dzone. He wonders all over the place. Often you find him in front of our net. He played center in college and has not adjusted to playing on the wing (at least defensively) in the NHL. I do like his energy and physicality. A Brandon Bollig comparison.
- -Doh-

He seems pretty strong on the puck when he can actually get to it and is willing to go to the net. His trouble seems to be when he floats and doesn't play physically. I don't have a problem with him in the bottom 6 at all.
- Popsghostly

Hayden needs a simplified and defined role: play a physical heavy style, play north south, and play within your means. Be a power winger, not a finesse one. If he plays outside of this realm, he is ineffective.

Also have observed that he wanders too much in the D zone, often times in the slot or behind the goal line. That's a lack of defensive awareness. In contrast, and I know he's currently in Rockford, Sikura knows where he needs to be and doesn't blow coverage. He has his warts and things to work on but hockey sense isn't one of them.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Feb 6 @ 1:14 PM ET
Real pride, I would guess - and hope.

Players don’t like to lose - and shouldn’t like it - and should always play to win.

I’m not sure why fans of the tank can’t understand that.

- StLBravesFan


It is long view versus short view. Each path has a strategy, but they are distinctly different.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Feb 6 @ 1:16 PM ET
Hayden needs a simplified and defined role: play a physical heavy style, play north south, and play within your means. Be a power winger, not a finesse one. If he plays outside of this realm, he is ineffective.

Also have observed that he wanders too much in the D zone, often times in the slot or behind the goal line. That's a lack of defensive awareness. In contrast, and I know he's currently in Rockford, Sikura knows where he needs to be and doesn't blow coverage. He has his warts and things to work on but hockey sense isn't one of them.

- AEL_Fox


I also think it has to do with his natural position being center, and his instinct is to cover for guys not doing their job. I'd like to see him center Kahun and Kampf on a fourth line for a string of games.
ObeseOprah
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 01.17.2014

Feb 6 @ 1:16 PM ET
OK, I'll go back to my original question... How do you tank? Do you tell the players to lay down? Healthy scratch Kane? Trade Toews for a bag of pucks? Also, how do you make sure you end up in the top 5?
- Chunk


I don't know how to tank without doing something crazy.

How do you make sure you end up in the top 5? Finish dead last. Then you're guaranteed 4th overall or better.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Feb 6 @ 1:16 PM ET
OK, I'll go back to my original question... How do you tank? Do you tell the players to lay down? Healthy scratch Kane? Trade Toews for a bag of pucks? Also, how do you make sure you end up in the top 5?
- Chunk


Kings trade Muzzin and win 2 in a row? Im sure their fans are saying the same thing. All these hockey players are playing for their future contract. There is no tanking
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Feb 6 @ 1:19 PM ET
I'm in a different boat than you. I prefer that my team plays as well as they possibly can. If that means they are just shy of the playoffs or get bounced in Rd1, so be it.

I've never been one to put that much stock into getting the top of the draft. I'd much rather they just make better overall moves.

- Chunk

Agree, play competitively and play for each other. Strive for success which can lead to a playoff berth. Then from there see what happens. If the team loses, at least make the other team work hard for the win.

Also agree that it's better to focus on solid prospect development no matter how those youngsters were acquired, i.e. first rounder, late rounder, free agency, trade, etc. Yes, it would be awesome to have a top 3-5 pick but that's a luxury.

If that luxury isn't there by June, then you should still at least have a strong player development program in place which includes strong drafts no matter where the picks are whether 1st round or 7th round, early in the round or late in the round, etc.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Feb 6 @ 1:20 PM ET
The players aren't going to tank for the team to draft someone to take their place. The coaches are not going to coach to lose. I guess you can make the case that the FO can trade guys, or demote players to try and affect the outcome, but that is a bit far fetched in my eyes.
- Chunk

Excellent point and fresh perspective.
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