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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: Sabres at the NHL All-Star break and heading towards the trade deadline
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sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Jan 25 @ 1:19 PM ET
who might be #2
mccabe or pilut?

- homiedclown

Either is debatable
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Jan 25 @ 1:21 PM ET
No it’s just basic common sense.

No one brought up a player who should produce more

- sbroads24


You did. You said he might not be the 2nd best offensive dman on the team. Production says he's currently the best. The discrepancy is ice time. Ergo, ice time is the difference between whoever you believe to be the 2nd best, and Risto

The Franson Fallacy. Player B will be the same as Player A, given the opportunity of player A
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jan 25 @ 1:21 PM ET
Either is debatable
- sbroads24

which makes the risto conversation important


if it's hard telling who is better all around between mccabe, pilut and risto


and dahlin is on the right long term


risto trade options should be explored


if botts wants dahlin on the left with risto on the right long term, that's a different story


we are loaded on the left with prospects
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

Jan 25 @ 1:23 PM ET
I know you are joking, but I love how the simpletons feel a player picked in a certain draft class slot should be doing as well as the best player taken in the same slot in a different draft class
- homiedclown


No but if you’re selected ahead of other players in your draft ideally you’d be the better player.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Jan 25 @ 1:24 PM ET
You did. You said he might not be the 2nd best offensive dman on the team. Production says he's currently the best. The discrepancy is ice time. Ergo, ice time is the difference between whoever you believe to be the 2nd best, and Risto

The Franson Fallacy. Player B will be the same as Player A, given the opportunity of player A

- jcragcrumple

Or you know the Seth Jones fallacy, but the Franson one works for your point
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jan 25 @ 1:26 PM ET
No but if you’re selected ahead of other players in your draft ideally you’d be the better player.
- Pegullaville

sam reinhart is better than nylander this season

so he has that going for him
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jan 25 @ 1:27 PM ET
You did. You said he might not be the 2nd best offensive dman on the team. Production says he's currently the best. The discrepancy is ice time. Ergo, ice time is the difference between whoever you believe to be the 2nd best, and Risto

The Franson Fallacy. Player B will be the same as Player A, given the opportunity of player A

- jcragcrumple

pretty sure dahlin has better even strength production per 60

and mccabe and pilut are not far behind risto
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Jan 25 @ 1:27 PM ET
Or you know the Seth Jones fallacy, but the Franson one works for your point
- sbroads24


That works too. So if Jake McCabe gets Risto's ice time, he'll become Seth Jones
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

Jan 25 @ 1:28 PM ET
John Vogl has a good article up today on the Athletic this morning on who is earning their paychecks this year and compares them to players of similar pay grades. Good stuff.
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jan 25 @ 1:29 PM ET
That works too. So if Jake McCabe gets Risto's ice time, he'll become Seth Jones
- jcragcrumple

roy and vanek had a harder time producing when they were line 1, then when drury and briere anchored lines 1a and 1b
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jan 25 @ 1:29 PM ET
John Vogl has a good article up today on the Athletic this morning on who is earning their paychecks this year and compares them to players of similar pay grades. Good stuff.
- Pegullaville

what did he say about the skunk?
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

Jan 25 @ 1:30 PM ET
sam reinhart is better than nylander this season

so he has that going for him

- homiedclown


I have been impressed with Reinhart the last two weeks because he has been noticeable and has created plays with and without Eichel. He didn’t have the points to show for it but his play was evident. Probbaly the best two weeks of his career imo.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Jan 25 @ 1:30 PM ET
That works too. So if Jake McCabe gets Risto's ice time, he'll become Seth Jones
- jcragcrumple

Yes that’s exactly what I said.

My point is that Seth Jones was a 25 point D man in NSH because he didn’t get good teammates or PP time, now he’s a 50 point player.

I’m sure he would still be churning out 50 point seasons on NSH 3rd pair.

Just like Dion Phanuef and Tyler Myers maintained those 40 point years when moved down to the 2nd and third pairs in TOR and WPG, right? It couldn’t have just been them getting spoon fed PP time and extended minutes propped up their point totals?

They just got worse all the sudden
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Jan 25 @ 1:32 PM ET
pretty sure dahlin has better even strength production per 60

and mccabe and pilut are not far behind risto

- homiedclown


Dahlin is the best on the team, or will be shortly. But there's no way that I buy that if put in Risto's place, Jake McCabe (of whom I'm a fan) will have 30 points in 48 games. We went through this with he-who-shall-not-be-named on the PP. Once someone else gets that opportunity, the void will be automatically filled. It's a fallacy
Sabre_Tooth
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We're all Duane, NE
Joined: 06.17.2015

Jan 25 @ 1:33 PM ET
what did he say about the skunk?
- homiedclown



worth the price

Sam Reinhart, $3.65 million

Reinhart held out to get his two-year deal, and at the moment it’s favoring the Sabres. He’s the most productive in his bunch. Though it certainly helps playing alongside Eichel, Reinhart is doing his part to move up the salary chain in 2020.

Bang for the buck: Yes.
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

Jan 25 @ 1:33 PM ET
what did he say about the skunk?
- homiedclown


Earning his $3M contract that’s forsure.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Jan 25 @ 1:35 PM ET
Risto is 4th on the Sabres blue line in points per 60.

Dahlin is #1.

Ristolainen literally is a product of ice time
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Jan 25 @ 1:36 PM ET
Yes that’s exactly what I said.

My point is that Seth Jones was a 25 point D man in NSH because he didn’t get good teammates or PP time, now he’s a 50 point player.

I’m sure he would still be churning out 50 point seasons on NSH 3rd pair.

Just like Dion Phanuef and Tyler Myers maintained those 40 point years when moved down to the 2nd and third pairs in TOR and WPG, right? It couldn’t have just been them getting spoon fed PP time and extended minutes propped up their point totals?

They just got worse all the sudden

- sbroads24


And you think McCabe is Seth Jones without the opportunity?
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Jan 25 @ 1:37 PM ET
Dahlin is the best on the team, or will be shortly. But there's no way that I buy that if put in Risto's place, Jake McCabe (of whom I'm a fan) will have 30 points in 48 games. We went through this with he-who-shall-not-be-named on the PP. Once someone else gets that opportunity, the void will be automatically filled. It's a fallacy
- jcragcrumple

I knew we’d get to Oreilly soon enough.

Where was our PP ranked last year? Wasn’t it last
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Jan 25 @ 1:37 PM ET
And you think McCabe is Seth Jones without the opportunity?
- jcragcrumple

No numb nuts because McCsbe didn’t do what Jones did 5 on 5 without the PP time
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jan 25 @ 1:39 PM ET
Earning his $3M contract that’s forsure.
- Pegullaville

not sure how many are earning their check on the roster

eichel has picked up his game this season, so he does
skinner and skunk for sure
risto
dahlin, mccabe, pilut but they are on cheap deals

thompson and casey I guess, though I expected more

ullmark


did I miss anyone?
maybe erod
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jan 25 @ 1:41 PM ET
I knew we’d get to Oreilly soon enough.

Where was our PP ranked last year? Wasn’t it last

- sbroads24

this year 17%, 21st

last year 19.1%, 20th
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Jan 25 @ 1:42 PM ET
this year 17%, 21st

last year 19.1%, 20th

- homiedclown

WHAT A LOSS OREILLY WAS HOLY HELL
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Jan 25 @ 1:42 PM ET
I knew we’d get to Oreilly soon enough.

Where was our PP ranked last year? Wasn’t it last

- sbroads24


Here's what the point is:

Your assumption is that production per 60 will continue given increased ice time. Jake McCabe will be Seth Jones if given the opportunity. For that to be true, you're assuming that:

A.) McCabe is equal in talent to Jones
B.) Increased ice time will result in an equal increase in points

Your assumption completely removes talent from the equation, and it assumes that all players are equal if given the same opportunity, which is patently false. The Franson Fallacy
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jan 25 @ 1:42 PM ET
I knew we’d get to Oreilly soon enough.

Where was our PP ranked last year? Wasn’t it last

- sbroads24

edmonton had the worst pp




http://www.espn.com/nhl/s...rt/powerPlayPct/year/2018
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