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Forums :: Blog World :: Sean Maloughney: Spooner and Rattie on Waivers, Jones Sent Down
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MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Jan 22 @ 12:03 AM ET
So Koskinen falls right in around number 20 like he is getting paid
- Lemmewinks

However, his sample size is equivalent to that of a single season worth of backup play as of now. The sample isn't big enough to justify anything close to 3 years at 4.5mil. Either a 1 year deal at 4.5mil (more than anyone else would give him) or 3 years at 3 is as high as such a deal should go.
Lemmewinks
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 02.05.2015

Jan 22 @ 12:10 AM ET
However, his sample size is equivalent to that of a single season worth of backup play as of now. The sample isn't big enough to justify anything close to 3 years at 4.5mil. Either a 1 year deal at 4.5mil (more than anyone else would give him) or 3 years at 3 is as high as such a deal should go.
- MaximumBone

We don't know that for sure... the NHL market especially when it comes to goalies is finicky at best. Now I get all the comparisons to Koskinen vs younger goalies but traditionally goalies take longer to develop and dont reach their prime until late 20s to early 30s. Koskinen has also not played as much hockey as would his counter part at 30 playing in North America. (Less wear and tear on the body). Talbot has played himself off this team and if we didn't re sign Koskinen we are left with no goalies under contract after this season. Plus a big part of it could be if he did not get term he could just as easily return back to Russia. All in all it is a gamble but one I feel we desperately needed to make due to our lack of options. Hopefully he can perform at an adequate level for 3 seasons until one of rodrigue or skinner develops.
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Jan 22 @ 12:19 AM ET
We don't know that for sure... the NHL market especially when it comes to goalies is finicky at best. Now I get all the comparisons to Koskinen vs younger goalies but traditionally goalies take longer to develop and dont reach their prime until late 20s to early 30s. Koskinen has also not played as much hockey as would his counter part at 30 playing in North America. (Less wear and tear on the body). Talbot has played himself off this team and if we didn't re sign Koskinen we are left with no goalies under contract after this season. Plus a big part of it could be if he did not get term he could just as easily return back to Russia. All in all it is a gamble but one I feel we desperately needed to make due to our lack of options. Hoepfully he can perform at an adequate level for 3 seasons until one of rodrigue or skinner develops.
- Lemmewinks

That's precisely the problem. As a team that's already cap-(frank)ed, we need every cent of cap space we had coming open this offseason in order to turn this boat around.

Koskinen doesn't have anything CLOSE to a track record deserving of a contract worth 13.5mil. He falls into a comparable category as players like Mrazek and DeSmith- the first of whom signed for 1.5mil in the offseason while the latter signed for 1.25mil for 3 years. Robin Lehner (who I'll remind I advocated in favour of) was also signed for 1.5mil this offseason. The closest contract Vs track record is Hutton who was still only signed for 2.75 x 3 and a better goalie in Halak signed for just 2.75 x 2.

Giving Koskinen 4.5 x 3 is another bad contract that- like most of the bad contracts we're stuck with- could've been avoided. It's possible he plays up to that contract, but it's not a wise bet.
Oildrum
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Kenny will bring us to the promised land
Joined: 06.12.2012

Jan 22 @ 12:38 AM ET
My bet is if the Oil lose tomorrow, Chia gets fired within 5 days.

Maybe it's just my hope.
Lemmewinks
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 02.05.2015

Jan 22 @ 12:44 AM ET
That's precisely the problem. As a team that's already cap-(frank)ed, we need every cent of cap space we had coming open this offseason in order to turn this boat around.

Koskinen doesn't have anything CLOSE to a track record deserving of a contract worth 13.5mil. He falls into a comparable category as players like Mrazek and DeSmith- the first of whom signed for 1.5mil in the offseason while the latter signed for 1.25mil for 3 years. Robin Lehner (who I'll remind I advocated in favour of) was also signed for 1.5mil this offseason. The closest contract Vs track record is Hutton who was still only signed for 2.75 x 3 and a better goalie in Halak signed for just 2.75 x 2.

Giving Koskinen 4.5 x 3 is another bad contract that- like most of the bad contracts we're stuck with- could've been avoided. It's possible he plays up to that contract, but it's not a wise bet.

- MaximumBone

Well currently we are paying 6.7 mill between both our goalies... next season we will be paying Koskinen 4.5 and possibly a backup for a mill or less so we will be saving cap in the goaltending department
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Jan 22 @ 12:47 AM ET
Well currently we are paying 6.7 mill between both our goalies... next season we will be paying Koskinen 4.5 and possibly a backup for a mill or less so we will be saving cap in the goaltending department
- Lemmewinks

Not compared to what we could be saving. We could be paying 2.5 to 3mil for what could easily equate to comparable goaltending.
Lemmewinks
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 02.05.2015

Jan 22 @ 12:49 AM ET
Not compared to what we could be saving. We could be paying 2.5 to 3mil for what could easily equate to comparable goaltending.
- MaximumBone

Who would we get that would be comparable... I dont know if you have looked at the free agents but it is really bleak and I don't know if you trust this management team to address anything via trade but I sure as hell don't.
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Jan 22 @ 1:11 AM ET
Who would we get that would be comparable... I dont know if you have looked at the free agents but it is really bleak and I don't know if you trust this management team to address anything via trade but I sure as hell don't.
- Lemmewinks

Hard to say. Going to need to wait and see which players keep up their current pace and which ones slow down, but as of now Mrazek would likely be available for less and provide comparable goaltending. Lehner will likely be looking at a comparable extension from the Isles with how he's played, but that's warranted by a track record of out-performing the level of an average goalie. Varlamov and Howard are both set to be UFAs and both provide higher level goaltending (with injury concerns, of course) but would likely cost about the same.

I maintain that my point stands that giving Koskinen this contract is folly especially when you could AT LEAST wait until the end of the year once you've tested him down the stretch. Instead, prematurely splooge money away on a goalie with average numbers of 27 games instead of waiting for a larger sample or spending less money on a comparable bet.
vancity787
Vancouver Canucks
Location: My Parents Basement, BC
Joined: 07.14.2008

Jan 22 @ 1:17 AM ET
Not compared to what we could be saving. We could be paying 2.5 to 3mil for what could easily equate to comparable goaltending.
- MaximumBone
This. I dont know how anyone could justify the signing today.

Chias got tunnel vision.

The more and more he tries to fix these situations, the worse and worse they're becoming.



cpltanto
Calgary Flames
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 07.05.2013

Jan 22 @ 2:31 AM ET
I think a tier-system works better with goalies, though it's tough to determine how much one should weigh their performance this year compared to their overall performance the last 3 years. Also, worth noting that regular season and playoff performance yield fundamentally different results.

Observation of some statistics relevant to goaltending skill and a touch of bias of overall stat lines and playoff perfromances to act as a tie-breaker for those on the edge between tiers) brings up a list like this:

Top tier: Gibson, Rinne, Andersen and Holtby (close to being bumped down)

Upper tier: Bobrovsky (drops here because of playoffs and this year) Raanta, Price, Quick, Howard(!), Lundqvist, Lehner (!!!) and Vasilevskiy

Middle tier: Dubnyk, Bishop, Fleury(!), Rask/Halak, Murray, Varlamov, Reimer, Hellebuyck, Crawford, Markstrom (close to being bumped down)

<<< Koskinen falls right about here with his results so far.

Lower tier: Greiss (close to being bumped up), Hutton, Talbot, Smith, Anderson, Kinkaid/Schneider, Allen, Anderson, Ward

Surprisingly so far removed from the 2nd worst over the past 3 years that it's remarkable: Jones (!!!!!)

As I'm no evaluator of goalies I don't know that these are all fair rankings, but I believe this represents a pretty accurate picture of where I'd rank them- Jones being an outlier of such extreme degree that I have to really look into him more now.

- MaximumBone



Hey you forgot about Rittich!
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Jan 22 @ 3:09 AM ET
Hey you forgot about Rittich!
- cpltanto

He ranks in the upper end of the mid-tier, but it was a small sample so I didn't include it.
wreckage
Florida Panthers
Location: Fuck Putin, fire Holland, AB
Joined: 07.29.2013

Jan 22 @ 3:50 AM ET
According to Johnston it's not even a flat 4.5 per.
2019-20: $5.2MM
2020-21: $3.3MM + $500K signing bonus
2021-22: $4.5MM

So where the eff are we coming up with $5.2MM for next year?
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Jan 22 @ 9:18 AM ET
He ranks in the upper end of the mid-tier, but it was a small sample so I didn't include it.
- MaximumBone


Curtis "The Legend" McElhinney?
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Jan 22 @ 9:19 AM ET
According to Johnston it's not even a flat 4.5 per.
2019-20: $5.2MM
2020-21: $3.3MM + $500K signing bonus
2021-22: $4.5MM

So where the eff are we coming up with $5.2MM for next year?

- wreckage


His cap hit is the average throughout, so the actual salary numbers each year don't matter.
RafiDRW
Detroit Red Wings
Location: Bill Cosby’s Magic Wiener #FireBlashill, TN
Joined: 04.16.2016

Jan 22 @ 9:20 AM ET
Curtis "The Legend" McElhinney?
- BINGO!

Talbot getting the Mrazek treatment me thinks.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Jan 22 @ 9:26 AM ET
Talbot getting the Mrazek treatment me thinks.
- RafiDRW


More than likely.

Mrazek is the funniest dude. His numbers look like poop but he's played pretty well. Hope he gets another contract somewhere. I'd probably give him the same deal he currently has to keep him.
JLO961
Season Ticket Holder
Edmonton Oilers
Location: MTL, QC
Joined: 01.16.2013

Jan 22 @ 9:27 AM ET
Do you honestly think that was a good trade?!
- neem55


Personally, I enjoyed PK's off-ice contributions to the city, but ON the ice, I like Weber better for the Habs. Weber is playing as good as he ever has and PK is returning from injury. I'd say this one has been surprisingly the reverse situation.

While Weber has had bad luck with relatively normal injuries, PK Subban is the one with back issues, not Shea Weber (straight from the physio guy that saw us both).
Wildschwein
New York Islanders
Joined: 11.17.2012

Jan 22 @ 9:43 AM ET
Curtis "The Legend" McElhinney?
- BINGO!


Soon to be signed to a mega contract of his own.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Jan 22 @ 9:52 AM ET
Soon to be signed to a mega contract of his own.
- Wildschwein


Chia gonna hedge his bets in net?
Reveen.
Edmonton Oilers
Location: BC
Joined: 09.05.2016

Jan 22 @ 10:02 AM ET
Chia gonna hedge his bets in net?
- BINGO!

I predict that when Chia gets fired.... Don Waddell will pick up the phone and offer him a front office job.
Wildschwein
New York Islanders
Joined: 11.17.2012

Jan 22 @ 10:03 AM ET
Chia gonna hedge his bets in net?
- BINGO!


Touche.
Alexzanki
Columbus Blue Jackets
Location: Montreal, QC
Joined: 06.03.2008

Jan 22 @ 10:31 AM ET
Curtis "The Legend" McElhinney?
- BINGO!

Greatest backup of all time
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Jan 22 @ 10:32 AM ET
I predict that when Chia gets fired.... Don Waddell will pick up the phone and offer him a front office job.
- Reveen.


Luckily Don isn't in charge of that.
Reveen.
Edmonton Oilers
Location: BC
Joined: 09.05.2016

Jan 22 @ 10:32 AM ET
One thing that's been getting to me lately is the fact that we passed on Connor's junior linemate (DeBrincat) in favor of that bandaid in Tyler Benson.



2017-18 Chicago Blackhawks NHL 82 28 24 52
2018-19 Chicago Blackhawks NHL 50 25 16 41
Reveen.
Edmonton Oilers
Location: BC
Joined: 09.05.2016

Jan 22 @ 10:33 AM ET
Luckily Don isn't in charge of that.
- BINGO!


It wasn't long ago that Don Waddell was the Peter Chiarelli of his time
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