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Forums :: Blog World :: Peter Tessier: Looking ahead to Jets trade deadline options
Author Message
Ross77
Joined: 11.21.2014

Jan 22 @ 10:32 AM ET
My issue with this is that Getzlaf isn’t as good as you think he is anymore, and he’s only going to continue downward. I’d rather not make a Getzlaf deal at all, and have a chance at sustained winning, than make a Getzlaf deal now to have the same exact odds for fewer years
- Rexypoo


and you are basing this 100% on regular season and I am basing this 100% on what i'd expect in playoffs.

two completely different seasons.
Ross77
Joined: 11.21.2014

Jan 22 @ 10:36 AM ET
i'll take it further and use Ehlers as the example. you are 100% right to say we are better off with Ehlers during the regular season over Getzlaf and I'll even include Toews as well. BUT!!!! Toews or Getzlaf for the next 2-3 years would be 100% better in the playoffs and increase our cup odds in the playoffs over Ehlers and this is not even close or up for debate.

if you don't believe me, use your graphs and math to show my two guys in the playoffs vrs Ehlers in the playoffs.
liverpoolnhl
Joined: 02.06.2018

Jan 22 @ 11:23 AM ET
first for the record I am not a Morrow fan, but am I the only one who finds it funny that on here and in Jets Twitter verse where Analytics seem to be worshiped that the only evidence of Niku being better than Morrow during this time together is the "eye test"
- Ross77

😏.....Ha!.....
islansjet
Joined: 03.13.2017

Jan 22 @ 11:29 AM ET
i'll take it further and use Ehlers as the example. you are 100% right to say we are better off with Ehlers during the regular season over Getzlaf and I'll even include Toews as well. BUT!!!! Toews or Getzlaf for the next 2-3 years would be 100% better in the playoffs and increase our cup odds in the playoffs over Ehlers and this is not even close or up for debate.

if you don't believe me, use your graphs and math to show my two guys in the playoffs vrs Ehlers in the playoffs.

- Ross77

It woud be a big mistake to trade Ehlers, Connor, Laine, Roslovic and Stanley for Getzlaf, Toews or players of their ilk as they all are approaching their prime while these former stars are all on the decline. Keeping these young players insure that the Jets make a run at the cup for years to come.
islansjet
Joined: 03.13.2017

Jan 22 @ 11:29 AM ET
i'll take it further and use Ehlers as the example. you are 100% right to say we are better off with Ehlers during the regular season over Getzlaf and I'll even include Toews as well. BUT!!!! Toews or Getzlaf for the next 2-3 years would be 100% better in the playoffs and increase our cup odds in the playoffs over Ehlers and this is not even close or up for debate.

if you don't believe me, use your graphs and math to show my two guys in the playoffs vrs Ehlers in the playoffs.

- Ross77

It woud be a big mistake to trade Ehlers, Connor, Laine, Roslovic and Stanley for Getzlaf, Toews or players of their ilk as they all are approaching their prime while these former stars are all on the decline. Keeping these young players insure that the Jets make a run at the cup for years to come.
2.0
Location: Dauphin, MB
Joined: 09.11.2017

Jan 22 @ 12:18 PM ET
It woud be a big mistake to trade Ehlers, Connor, Laine, Roslovic and Stanley for Getzlaf, Toews or players of their ilk as they all are approaching their prime while these former stars are all on the decline. Keeping these young players insure that the Jets make a run at the cup for years to come.
- islansjet



and here is another issue - The Jets cannot keep all the youth together due to cap constraints. Scheifle, Ehlers, Connor, Laine, Roslovic, Trouba, Morrisey, Lowry, Tanev, Niku and core players who will become depth such as Wheeler, Buff, Little, Perreault. Some of the young players will be lost and some may have already peaked - there are no guarantees they will improve.

I think Ehlers is getting picked on here because he is good enough to land a potential HOFer like Getzlaff. It may currently be close to a player lateral but it is a positional upgrade from Jets strength at wing to gap at center, it is a leadership upgrade and a playoff upgrade. Ehlers is paid enough (6m cap hit) that the additional 2.25m cap-hit (from a hypothetical trade) for two years beyond this season is not crippling. Also - Getzlaff could be exposed for Seattle, Ehlers could not.

Its about winning the cup and there is a GM out there somewhere who will take the risks and it will work out. None of the recent cup champs got there on homegrown talent alone. All made moves to grasp for an edge.
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Jan 22 @ 12:42 PM ET
and you are basing this 100% on regular season and I am basing this 100% on what i'd expect in playoffs.

two completely different seasons.

- Ross77


Exactly the same. No difference. Ehlers has only had one go round with the playoff experience, and he has some horrific luck. If you wanna go by that sort of superstition, the hockey gods shall bless Ehlers with a massive showing this year
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Jan 22 @ 12:43 PM ET
and here is another issue - The Jets cannot keep all the youth together due to cap constraints. Scheifle, Ehlers, Connor, Laine, Roslovic, Trouba, Morrisey, Lowry, Tanev, Niku and core players who will become depth such as Wheeler, Buff, Little, Perreault. Some of the young players will be lost and some may have already peaked - there are no guarantees they will improve.

I think Ehlers is getting picked on here because he is good enough to land a potential HOFer like Getzlaff. It may currently be close to a player lateral but it is a positional upgrade from Jets strength at wing to gap at center, it is a leadership upgrade and a playoff upgrade. Ehlers is paid enough (6m cap hit) that the additional 2.25m cap-hit (from a hypothetical trade) for two years beyond this season is not crippling. Also - Getzlaff could be exposed for Seattle, Ehlers could not.

Its about winning the cup and there is a GM out there somewhere who will take the risks and it will work out. None of the recent cup champs got there on homegrown talent alone. All made moves to grasp for an edge.

- 2.0


How will trading Ehlers for a worse player making more money help us win or do anything to solve our cap issues?
Ross77
Joined: 11.21.2014

Jan 22 @ 12:57 PM ET
Exactly the same. No difference. Ehlers has only had one go round with the playoff experience, and he has some horrific luck. If you wanna go by that sort of superstition, the hockey gods shall bless Ehlers with a massive showing this year
- Rexypoo


Hope you are right, but if Ehlers goes MIA in the playoffs again I don't want to hear about puck luck.

playoffs and regular season are 100% different. players like Toews are not making 10 mil per season for his play in regular season. Fleury is another current NHL player that's is being paid for what he does in post season. There are countless examples of players who either show up or disappear once playoffs begin and the "Underlying Stats" you like to talk about during the regular season go right out the window.
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Jan 22 @ 1:34 PM ET
Hope you are right, but if Ehlers goes MIA in the playoffs again I don't want to hear about puck luck.

playoffs and regular season are 100% different. players like Toews are not making 10 mil per season for his play in regular season. Fleury is another current NHL player that's is being paid for what he does in post season. There are countless examples of players who either show up or disappear once playoffs begin and the "Underlying Stats" you like to talk about during the regular season go right out the window.

- Ross77


Toews has 1 playoff goal since 2015. Let’s calm that one down.

As for my underlying numbers, they become even more important come playoff time. When the post-season rolls around, the checking gets tighter, and the scoring goes down, it’s even more important to control the play. LA taught us this lesson best, but Boston and Chicago are closer to our team build.
Of course, there isn’t much anyone can do about getting goalied like we did against Vegas
Ross77
Joined: 11.21.2014

Jan 22 @ 1:42 PM ET
Toews has 1 playoff goal since 2015. Let’s calm that one down.

As for my underlying numbers, they become even more important come playoff time. When the post-season rolls around, the checking gets tighter, and the scoring goes down, it’s even more important to control the play. LA taught us this lesson best, but Boston and Chicago are closer to our team build.
Of course, there isn’t much anyone can do about getting goalied like we did against Vegas

- Rexypoo


yes they taught us, don't be afraid to lose a trade long term ( Richards and Carter) to win now. we agree
Ross77
Joined: 11.21.2014

Jan 22 @ 1:43 PM ET
Toews has 1 playoff goal since 2015. Let’s calm that one down.

As for my underlying numbers, they become even more important come playoff time. When the post-season rolls around, the checking gets tighter, and the scoring goes down, it’s even more important to control the play. LA taught us this lesson best, but Boston and Chicago are closer to our team build.
Of course, there isn’t much anyone can do about getting goalied like we did against Vegas

- Rexypoo


still more than Ehlers, and in 4 less games played, but hey, nice try
BookemDano
Joined: 12.06.2016

Jan 22 @ 2:03 PM ET
Holy crap boys the perfect rental is just 7 hours south of us. Eric Staal!!! We just need Minny to tank hard.
2.0
Location: Dauphin, MB
Joined: 09.11.2017

Jan 22 @ 2:05 PM ET
Toews has 1 playoff goal since 2015. Let’s calm that one down.

As for my underlying numbers, they become even more important come playoff time. When the post-season rolls around, the checking gets tighter, and the scoring goes down, it’s even more important to control the play. LA taught us this lesson best, but Boston and Chicago are closer to our team build.
Of course, there isn’t much anyone can do about getting goalied like we did against Vegas

- Rexypoo


nailed it. It's a different game, the officiating morphs, mentality changes, emotional levels change, fatigue factors in and different players excel.
Ross77
Joined: 11.21.2014

Jan 22 @ 2:23 PM ET
Holy crap boys the perfect rental is just 7 hours south of us. Eric Staal!!! We just need Minny to tank hard.
- BookemDano

Saw an interview with Russo (covers the wild). He said staal has really lost a step this season and has nothing left.
TheUltimateJet
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 07.16.2013

Jan 22 @ 2:26 PM ET
still more than Ehlers, and in 4 less games played, but hey, nice try

- Ross77


Ross77, if I am trading Ehlers, i am trading him for your boy Couturier. That man has playoff pedigree written all over him. I am in agreement with Rexy that trading for a player that is older like Getzlaf might not make sense. Now saying that, I would not be upset if Getzlaf turned into Kopitar.

Ehlers is also on a team friendly deal for the next 7 years including this one. So the return should match what we are giving up.
TheUltimateJet
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 07.16.2013

Jan 22 @ 2:28 PM ET
Holy crap boys the perfect rental is just 7 hours south of us. Eric Staal!!! We just need Minny to tank hard.
- BookemDano


No to Staal!
TheUltimateJet
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 07.16.2013

Jan 22 @ 2:30 PM ET
yes they taught us, don't be afraid to lose a trade long term ( Richards and Carter) to win now. we agree

- Ross77


i would take two cups in the next 3 years if it meant parting with top prospects/picks now. Our Stanley Cup window is as long as Scheifele's current contract. That window only gets shorter as the years pass by.
Ross77
Joined: 11.21.2014

Jan 22 @ 2:35 PM ET
Ross77, if I am trading Ehlers, i am trading him for your boy Couturier. That man has playoff pedigree written all over him. I am in agreement with Rexy that trading for a player that is older like Getzlaf might not make sense. Now saying that, I would not be upset if Getzlaf turned into Kopitar.

Ehlers is also on a team friendly deal for the next 7 years including this one. So the return should match what we are giving up.

- TheUltimateJet


for the record, I wasn't suggesting trading Ehlers at all. was just using him as an example in another argument about winning now.


Ross77
Joined: 11.21.2014

Jan 22 @ 2:40 PM ET
for the record, I wasn't suggesting trading Ehlers at all. was just using him as an example in another argument about winning now.
- Ross77

But I have said multiple times in the past we will eventually trade a left winger
TheUltimateJet
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 07.16.2013

Jan 22 @ 2:55 PM ET
But I have said multiple times in the past we will eventually trade a left winger
- Ross77


You also have to beware that you don't become like the Ottawa Senators when they had crazy depth on the right wing and ended up trading it away and became thin on it. Those were the days of Alfredson, Hossa and Havlat.
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Jan 22 @ 3:14 PM ET
Ross77, if I am trading Ehlers, i am trading him for your boy Couturier. That man has playoff pedigree written all over him. I am in agreement with Rexy that trading for a player that is older like Getzlaf might not make sense. Now saying that, I would not be upset if Getzlaf turned into Kopitar.

Ehlers is also on a team friendly deal for the next 7 years including this one. So the return should match what we are giving up.

- TheUltimateJet


I actually do that deal
Peter Tessier
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jan 22 @ 3:50 PM ET
I think everyone needs to settle down a bit about cap space with the Jets they don't have a problem. The have a risk management challenge and all teams with good players go through this. Don't be Chiarelli and it will work out okay
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Jan 22 @ 4:54 PM ET
But I have said multiple times in the past we will eventually trade a left winger
- Ross77


Ehlers plays both wings. He’s also our best non-Wheeler, non-Laine winger. And on a value deal. He stays.
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Jan 22 @ 4:56 PM ET
I think everyone needs to settle down a bit about cap space with the Jets they don't have a problem. The have a risk management challenge and all teams with good players go through this. Don't be Chiarelli and it will work out okay
- Peter.Tessier


Secrets to Jets winning:
-Myers, Tanev, and Chiarot walk
-Kuli is dumped
-Laine, Connor, Morrissey, and (?)Trouba(?) gey navigated properly
-Roslovic, Petan, Niku, Appleton, Vesalainen all bridged on the cheap
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