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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Juniors Begin + Wild Primer
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bhawks2241
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 09.17.2013

Dec 27 @ 4:16 PM ET
Credit Scott Powers @ The Athletic

“Sixth defenseman: Brent Seabrook has played the fewest 5-on-5 minutes among the Blackhawks’ defensemen in each of the past five games. Keith has played a team-high 94:27 of 5-on-5 ice time in the last five games, and Seabrook has played 62:31. The lack of ice time hasn’t exactly helped Seabrook. In the past five games, he has a 37.61 Corsi percentage and has been on the ice for three goals for and four goals against.

For the season, Seabrook is among the bottom 50 players in the league in Corsi against per 60 minutes, shots against per 60, scoring chances against per 60 and goals against per 60.”


I don’t know what you do with that, it’s an albatross.

- walleyeb1


Well that is worse than most probably thought..... yikes yikes yikessssss
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Dec 27 @ 4:54 PM ET


I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Dec 27 @ 4:59 PM ET
Disclaimer, no hockey, ignore me.

I heard the original line-up for Van Halen might come touring. It's a maybe, but I got crossed fingers.
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Dec 27 @ 5:00 PM ET


- DarthKane


Awesome for him. I love watching that kid.
steve-hist-sdc
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 12.30.2016

Dec 27 @ 5:39 PM ET

The rain is so pretty. ha.

Left the hotel without an umbrella yesterday... such a rookie west coast move.


Take it from someone who has lived in SW Victoria ... no umbrella, no problem ... but find someplace to pick up a hat at short notice... floppy hats are ok -although if you choose unwisely you can look like Gilligan.
Savetheembers33
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 01.23.2017

Dec 27 @ 5:39 PM ET
Disclaimer, no hockey, ignore me.

I heard the original line-up for Van Halen might come touring. It's a maybe, but I got crossed fingers.

- I Am The Breadman


Now that would be pretty damn sweet. Probably cost like $200 a pop for 300 level at the UC though if it happens
Savetheembers33
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 01.23.2017

Dec 27 @ 5:40 PM ET


- DarthKane


Interesting...good signing by the Pens to lock up one of their future core members. Wonder how they're gonna fair going forward cap wise with the guys they have. Feel like they're gonna lose some pieces at some point or drop off even further than they already are
Savetheembers33
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 01.23.2017

Dec 27 @ 5:46 PM ET
Not as projectable as baseball. Kind of like basketball in that kids or Europeans to pros doesn't necessarily translate as expected.

No one seemed high on Barrett until he started beating ass this year. Literally. Some of his highlights are hilarious. He runs dudes and his mouth constantly. Andrew Shaw type low end and Dave Bolland before back surgery on the high.

Wise a "steal" until he was meh and got injured.

I think the Hawks have 1 elite level talent in Bovqist. Hes just too much of an athlete and has too much skill to not be good. 1 very good one in Beaudin. And two could be good in Barret and Mitchell. Everyone else meh until they start playing against men.

Probably light compared to other teams.

- fattybeef


Good points, maybe looks light on the surface but there are plenty of times where guys come out of no where to become legit NHL players or even better when they had little to no hype coming up. I wouldn't be shocked to see at least one guy from the past two drafts (outside of the "Big 3" D-men) to end up being a legit Top 6 guy. They may not have the hype right now but I don't mind it. Gives them the time to fully develop their game and come in and make an impact. Some kids can't handle the expectations put on them early on and that's why you see so many guys destroy the Juniors and then fail miserably when the get to the AHL or more specifically the NHL.
steve-hist-sdc
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 12.30.2016

Dec 27 @ 5:46 PM ET
Scott Powers‏Verified account @ByScottPowers · 12m12 minutes ago

Blackhawks lines
Saad-Toews-Kahun
Anisimov-Strome-Kane
DeBrincat-Kampf-Perlini
Hayden-Nilsson-Sikura

Interesting that Sikura bumped down. Cat not getting a lot of offensive help on his line...

- Chunk



I think it might be a case of trying to get Perlini more ice time. I finally got the NHL package and rewatched the last Florida game. It was basically a tie game plus 2 gaffs. The first two goals mainly. And seriously no one splits the defense with a stretch pass - Keith was asleep on that one.

Anyways back to the topic -Sikura did nothing wrong, in that he looked pretty good - but then again nothing against Perlini, but he was not really able to show much on that 4th line. I didn't see him do anything wrong either, but he wasn't able to actually do much on the line that he was on either -but of all of the guys on that 4th line, he looked the best but not really fitting what you would want in a 4th liner.

Come to think of it - there is no way that Sikura will be able to either, as he is not that type of player. That dude is top 9 at a minimum. Can he not play LW? As it is seeming like the Hawks got too many guys that are too similar (forwards-wise, that is).
steve-hist-sdc
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 12.30.2016

Dec 27 @ 5:48 PM ET
Disclaimer, no hockey, ignore me.

I heard the original line-up for Van Halen might come touring. It's a maybe, but I got crossed fingers.

- I Am The Breadman


I thought they were talking doing outdoor stadiums, like Yankee Stadium -- the UC might be too small for what they got in mind.


Otoh -they need to come to Perth, if they do...
Savetheembers33
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 01.23.2017

Dec 27 @ 6:00 PM ET
I think it might be a case of trying to get Perlini more ice time. I finally got the NHL package and rewatched the last Florida game. It was basically a tie game plus 2 gaffs. The first two goals mainly. And seriously no one splits the defense with a stretch pass - Keith was asleep on that one.

Anyways back to the topic -Sikura did nothing wrong, in that he looked pretty good - but then again nothing against Perlini, but he was not really able to show much on that 4th line. I didn't see him do anything wrong either, but he wasn't able to actually do much on the line that he was on either -but of all of the guys on that 4th line, he looked the best but not really fitting what you would want in a 4th liner.

Come to think of it - there is no way that Sikura will be able to either, as he is not that type of player. That dude is top 9 at a minimum. Can he not play LW? As it is seeming like the Hawks got too many guys that are too similar (forwards-wise, that is).

- steve-hist-sdc


This seems to be the problem with the team's depth right. They have too many guys who are are good at a few things but few excel at very few if any. I wanna start find niche guys who are good at specific things and compliment one another on the ice to bring a balanced attack. Guys who are good at PK, board battles, net front presence, and can add some depth scoring to take some of the pressure of the top six guys
Slofire94
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: CA
Joined: 01.17.2016

Dec 27 @ 6:17 PM ET


- DarthKane


Pens cap situation doesn't look pretty for next year.
14 signed on the roster
$74,370,833 cap hit
And they need a backup goalie, Brassard replacement and a few other depth F/D
Plus Murray will be in the last year of his 3.75M cap hit
tvetter
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burkesville, KY
Joined: 12.16.2015

Dec 27 @ 6:29 PM ET
Denmark: 2 games, 18 GA, 0 GF
tvetter
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burkesville, KY
Joined: 12.16.2015

Dec 27 @ 6:30 PM ET
Pens cap situation doesn't look pretty for next year.
14 signed on the roster
$74,370,833 cap hit
And they need a backup goalie, Brassard replacement and a few other depth F/D
Plus Murray will be in the last year of his 3.75M cap hit

- Slofire94

No problem. Bettman will make sure the cap goes up to 90 million. Right PE?
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Dec 27 @ 6:40 PM ET
Credit Scott Powers @ The Athletic

“Sixth defenseman: Brent Seabrook has played the fewest 5-on-5 minutes among the Blackhawks’ defensemen in each of the past five games. Keith has played a team-high 94:27 of 5-on-5 ice time in the last five games, and Seabrook has played 62:31. The lack of ice time hasn’t exactly helped Seabrook. In the past five games, he has a 37.61 Corsi percentage and has been on the ice for three goals for and four goals against.

For the season, Seabrook is among the bottom 50 players in the league in Corsi against per 60 minutes, shots against per 60, scoring chances against per 60 and goals against per 60.”



I don’t know what you do with that, it’s an albatross.

- walleyeb1

Never liked Corsi, as it values an unscreened wrist shot from the point the same as a break away. Here’s the Scoring Chances For % 5 v 5 for this season, from Natural Stat Trick.

Jokiharju 53.10
Keith 49.92
Gustafsson 49.86
Murphy 49.65
Dahlstrom 48.72
Rutta 46.74
Seabrook 44.08
Manning 43.72
Forsling 42.50
Davidson 38.75
tvetter
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burkesville, KY
Joined: 12.16.2015

Dec 27 @ 6:41 PM ET
Mailbag question:

If we trade Keith (we better get a huge return), would Murphy as a 3/4 and Seabrook (untradable) as a 6/7 provide enough leadership to bring the young d prospects along?
mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Dec 27 @ 6:42 PM ET
Mailbag question:

If we trade Keith (we better get a huge return), would Murphy as a 3/4 and Seabrook (untradable) as a 6/7 provide enough leadership to bring the young d prospects along?

- tvetter



a 1st, salary relief and ?
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Dec 27 @ 6:55 PM ET
Never liked Corsi, as it values an unscreened wrist shot from the point the same as a break away. Here’s the Scoring Chances For % 5 v 5 for this season, from Natural Stat Trick.

Jokiharju 53.10
Keith 49.92
Gustafsson 49.86
Murphy 49.65
Dahlstrom 48.72
Rutta 46.74
Seabrook 44.08
Manning 43.72
Forsling 42.50
Davidson 38.75

- scottak


From an older blog:

Instead of using regular Corsi or Fenwick For Percentage, I like to look at Relative Corsi/Fenwick For Percentage instead. These relative percentages measure the change in Corsi or Fenwick when a player is on the ice versus when he's on the bench. If you're a bad player who is coasting off your teammates or a good player being dragged down by the skaters around you, the relative stats will do a better job of discovering that:

tvetter
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burkesville, KY
Joined: 12.16.2015

Dec 27 @ 6:56 PM ET
a 1st, salary relief and ?
- mrpaulish

I'm not saying we will get a huge return, but at his cap hit, he really isn't hurting us, so unless a team offers the moon, we keep him.
So, to answer your question, a first, second and A level prospect that should make the NHL next season as a top 6 forward.
powerenforcer
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wheeling, IL
Joined: 09.24.2009

Dec 27 @ 7:08 PM ET
No problem. Bettman will make sure the cap goes up to 90 million. Right PE?
- tvetter


Or, they will have some sort of 1 time renegotiation clause, so they can rework a contract so others fit in. You see, it will benefit all teams, just watch the timing on that.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Dec 27 @ 7:17 PM ET
From an older blog:

Instead of using regular Corsi or Fenwick For Percentage, I like to look at Relative Corsi/Fenwick For Percentage instead. These relative percentages measure the change in Corsi or Fenwick when a player is on the ice versus when he's on the bench. If you're a bad player who is coasting off your teammates or a good player being dragged down by the skaters around you, the relative stats will do a better job of discovering that:


- walleyeb1


Hawk leader? Joki: https://www.hockey-refere...e.com/teams/CHI/2019.html
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Dec 27 @ 7:32 PM ET
Hawk leader? Joki: https://www.hockey-refere...e.com/teams/CHI/2019.html
- Mr Ricochet


Yep, found that interesting, if you’re into advanced stats you’ll find this an interesting read. If not you won’t get past the first couple paragraphs:

https://www.sports-refere...vanced-hockey-statistics/
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Dec 27 @ 7:50 PM ET
SWE up 3-1 in the 2nd on Slovakia. The kid who was in net for Slovakia last night vs the US, 17 yr old Sam Hlavaj, has been given the night off but as a heads up he was signed by the USHL Lincoln Stars December 18th.

Lincoln invades Geneva's Fox Valley Ice Arena to play the Mighty Steel on March 24th. Might get to see this kid live for 10 bucks.

For those in need a link to the SWE vs SVK tilt: http://www.hockeydabeast413.xyz/wjc.html
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Dec 27 @ 8:04 PM ET
Yep, found that interesting, if you’re into advanced stats you’ll find this an interesting read. If not you won’t get past the first couple paragraphs:

https://www.sports-refere...vanced-hockey-statistics/

- walleyeb1


Thanks for posting, WallEye. For me these are the basic fancies, the kind I follow but the fancies go as far as your IQ and time will allow and that's where the LBR's come in. The stats, behind the stats, behind the stats, inside the numbers.

I often wonder how deep I would go into the fancies if they were around before my mind became pickled. Back in the day where I'd read my Sporting News Baseball Register front to back over and over. Before they turned MLB into 16 inch softball.......

But yea, I like the basic corsi and fenwick stats.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Dec 27 @ 8:33 PM ET
Starting goalie tonight for Switzerland vs Canada, Akira Schmid (5th rd pick of NJ), is the USHL Omaha Lancers #1 goalie: https://www.eliteprospect...layer/336133/akira-schmid
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