Shots lead to goals.

However not all shots are created equal. Does Hagg muffin one in from the blue with no one in front, or does Laine rip a snapper from the slot?

This stat takes into account a whole bunch of shot characteristics and an excel spreadsheet translates it into shot quality. The higher the shot quality, the more likely it is to score. This is good if you're Laine and you're taking the shot. This is bad if you're Andrew McDonald and are on the ice when a lot of those shots are taken. There's also a shot multiplier calculated to take into account who's taking the shot i.e. if Laine or Zac Rinaldo is shooting from the slot. One of those is more likely to go in. The shot multiplier is based on a fancy shooting percentage, relevant to the league average. Basically.

pretty cool stat. For your pleasure, here are the qualities and a few blurbs on it. Regression models show it's a pretty useful metric.

http://www.corsica.hockey...nd-expected-goals-part-i/
https://hockey-graphs.com...scoring-than-corsi-goals/


- Giroux_Is_God

I do not agree with the rush goals. Shots off the rush I feel are more likely to miss whereas if you cycle and receive the puck in a shooting position that would lead to a goal more often to me

- Giroux_Is_God

Not the least bit shocked.

The White Sox, who are trying to sign Manny Machado just traded for his brother in law. Sneaky bastards.
- hereticpride

remember when we had timonen's brother and schenn's brother

- Giroux_Is_God

How about actual goals against?

- Giroux_Is_God

Jackie Gleason had a wicked wrister though.
To the Moon!

I do not agree with the rush goals. Shots off the rush I feel are more likely to miss whereas if you cycle and receive the puck in a shooting position that would lead to a goal more often to me
- xShoot4WarAmpsx

To you, maybe, but not to reality.

Here's an article about a 10 game stretch where the Oilers scored 20 ES goals. Key points: https://edmontonjournal.c...t-of-hockey-study-reveals
1. On average, goal-scoring sequences lasted 12.6 seconds with most sequences started with the Oilers making a good play in their own zone.
2. "A defensive zone battle was won, a smart pass was made and the team quickly moved up ice to the attack. This happened on 13 of the 20 goals"
3. Most goals scored come on lightning strikes: 10 goals scored saw the Oilers win the puck and score in 10 seconds or under. 7 of the 20 goals came within 11-to-20 seconds.
4. "Very few goals scored come after extended pressure. Only three of the 20 goals scored saw the Oilers winning the puck, then taking more than 20 seconds to score. In other words, sustained pressure in the offensive zone is a very good thing, but it’s rare enough that it’s not the way a goal is most likely going to be scored."

Here's another look at how goals were scored. This one comes from the NCAA tournament. https://coachchrishall.co.../hockey/analytics-hockey/

Key point: 20 of 40 ES goals scored across 12 games came off the rush. Avg time to goal ~5 sec.

Also found a thesis (literally) analyzing goals scored in SM-League across a season. 1349 goals were documented and 443 came off rushes. 483 came off offensive zone play. Now, it is reasonable to conclude since we both know this game well that a rush goal is a one and done goal. You score off the rush. Maybe toss a rebound in there. But your shooting % off the rush is going to be higher than in an offensive zone cycle and extended pressure, where it's common for a goalie to save the puck 2 or 3+ times prior to connecting. I'm not saying anything absolute, I'm just playing the "common things being common" game. https://www.theseus.fi/bi...en%20Final.pdf?sequence=1

Rushes- carrying the puck through the NZ with speed- coupled with clean zone entries and effective lane filling are the bread and butter of dangerous teams. The Flyers are one of these dangerous teams as I've said time after time. Many of their goals come off quick strike offense, which is a good sign.

Jackie Gleason had a wicked wrister though.
To the Moon!
- konalover711

Bang zoom!

Oh definitely something random.

Jfc
- hereticpride

Last thing I’m gonna touch on before enjoying tonight’s match up...

There is no other decision outside of firing Hakstol. If you guys want to see the season salvaged, this window is getting closer to closing the longer you keep Hakstol.

The difference between Simmonds or any other player you are all screaming from the rooftops to trade, you do this in February if everything goes belly up and closer to the trade deadline. The coach you fire now!

I’m tired of reading the unrealistic views and the over reactions. Be careful what you wish for guys. You can’t win without hitting rock bottom. Commit to a rebuild or do what’s best for the team in a playoff run and fire the coach.

How about actual goals against?
- jmatchett383

Sure, let's look. 5v5, with a dash of fancy stats (scoring chances and high danger scoring chances)



Key points:

1. Sanheim is a (frank)ing monster.
2. AMac is not.

Additional stat calculated by me, for simplicity: GA/60. Just a flat, in a vacuum, projection based on TOI and GA.

Provorov: 3.17
Ghost: 2.94
Hagg: 2.19
Sanheim: 2.62
Gudas: 1.77
Folin: 3.19
MacDonald: 3.98

Per Meltzer.

Lind back to the fourth line.

Mac to top pair.

He’s going to go out his way lol.
- flyer_nutter

Going out clueless....priceless!

remember when we had timonen's brother and schenn's brother
- 2Real

Remember when we had Kessel's brother?

Yes and Voracek is an 80-85 point player. My point is they are both players that for whatever reason dont shoot. They are playmakers and the lack of scoring is what keeps them a tier below elite.

Tier 1 are gamechangers. Those are your McDavids and Crosbys. They excel at almost everything and have great hockey sense

Tier 2 are your Snipers and playmakers. Its pretty self explanitory, they typically excel at one or the other

Tier 3 is your all around player. They players are good at scoring, defensive play and making plays but they dont really excel at anything

Tier 4 are your grinders. These are your typical 3rd line\ fourth line players. They typically are the guys that work the hardest, play well defensively

Last tier players are the lost puppies. These are your Yakapov's. Guys that arent that skilled or are skilled but dont know what to do with those skills. These are the guys that end up being AHL players or tweeners.

Marner to me is Tier 2 as is Voracek. Marner def has more skill but they are essentially same type of player. Marner is young and he could possibly elevate his game and make himself into the top tier. I dont know if he has what it takes to do so though.
- xShoot4WarAmpsx

So then Weise and Weal are tier 6 and Lehtera tier 7?

Sure, let's look. 5v5, with a dash of fancy stats (scoring chances and high danger scoring chances)



Key points:

1. Sanheim is a (frank)ing monster.
2. AMac is not.

Additional stat calculated by me, for simplicity: GA/60. Just a flat, in a vacuum, projection based on TOI and GA.

Provorov: 3.17
Ghost: 2.94
Hagg: 2.19
Sanheim: 2.62
Gudas: 1.77
Folin: 3.19
MacDonald: 3.98
- Giroux_Is_God

I wish Ghost played with a big physical guy like Morin. I wish Mac didn’t Exist.

Sure, let's look. 5v5, with a dash of fancy stats (scoring chances and high danger scoring chances)



Key points:

1. Sanheim is a (frank)ing monster.
2. AMac is not.

Additional stat calculated by me, for simplicity: GA/60. Just a flat, in a vacuum, projection based on TOI and GA.

Provorov: 3.17
Ghost: 2.94
Hagg: 2.19
Sanheim: 2.62
Gudas: 1.77
Folin: 3.19
MacDonald: 3.98
- Giroux_Is_God

Those are pretty good numbers for Hagg/Gudas tbh.

AMac... Oh AMac.

Going out clueless....priceless!
- BiggE

But we will win so.....

Pick it

Hak fired as soon as he is back in Philly

Hak fired after Christmas

Hak makes it till the end of the season

Pick it

Hak fired as soon as he is back in Philly

Hak fired after Christmas

Hak makes it till the end of the season
- wcorvette

I’ll say after Christmas, before New Years Day

Pick it

Hak fired as soon as he is back in Philly

Hak fired after Christmas

Hak makes it till the end of the season
- wcorvette

Or D). Hak fired on plane ride home.

Or D). Hak fired on plane ride home.

- landros 2

I think if they lose bad tonight, Hak is on a different plane home than the team.

I think if they lose bad tonight, Hak is on a different plane home than the team.
- MBFlyerfan

Very possible.

Or D). Hak fired on plane ride home.

- landros 2

Pens up 2-0 after 1. Gonna be 8 points out by morning.

Sell Mortimer, sell!!

Sure, let's look. 5v5, with a dash of fancy stats (scoring chances and high danger scoring chances)



Key points:

1. Sanheim is a (frank)ing monster.
2. AMac is not.

Additional stat calculated by me, for simplicity: GA/60. Just a flat, in a vacuum, projection based on TOI and GA.

Provorov: 3.17
Ghost: 2.94
Hagg: 2.19
Sanheim: 2.62
Gudas: 1.77
Folin: 3.19
MacDonald: 3.98
- Giroux_Is_God

If you're going to be a proponent of stats, the first thing someone needs to learn is to know that not all players play in the same situations. If Sanheim played in the same situations that MacDonald plays in, Sanheim would struggle at this point in his career. For example even though MacDonald has played in 15 less games than Sanheim, MacDonald has one less defensive zone start that Sanheim. 42 to 43. Sanheim's offensive zone start percentage is 59.81% to MacDonald's 37.31%. Sanheim is sheltered as a player. We don't need stats to know that MacDonald has had a subpar and inconsistent season to this point. We also have to take into account the team's struggles both in D zone coverage and goaltending issues into it.

This is pretty common with a lot of fans who like to use analytics and make incomplete and faulty analysis using them.

I think if they lose bad tonight, Hak is on a different plane home than the team.
- MBFlyerfan

I think he’s fired on plane ride home regardless of tonight’s score.

Pick it

Hak fired as soon as he is back in Philly

Hak fired after Christmas

Hak makes it till the end of the season
- wcorvette

Fired between 1st and 2nd period.