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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Musings and Quick Hits: 12/11/18
Author Message
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:53 PM ET
Toffoli, Muzzin, and Martinez are all for sale, and they will likely each fetch a quality return. Muzzin will probably get a 1st round pick or a top quality prospect. Martinez and Toffoli will likely go for 2nds or "B+ prospects". A team looking to improve their roster isn't really going to care what a trade does for LA's cap situation, as long as it makes their own team better, especially if it's an Eastern conference team.
- tkecanuck341


Again all of this is assumption, until it happens.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

Dec 11 @ 6:53 PM ET
Yes, over base salary. Doubt he's a player who is going to his his bonuses. Although we don't know what they are. It's still a raise!
- MJL


Fair enough. I retract what I said previously. Let's hurry up and trade Doughty so we can fit him in.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

Dec 11 @ 6:53 PM ET
Again all of this is assumption, until it happens.
- Glak18


All of everything is an assumption, until it happens.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:54 PM ET
Toffoli, Muzzin, and Martinez are all for sale, and they will likely each fetch a quality return. Muzzin will probably get a 1st round pick or a top quality prospect. Martinez and Toffoli will likely go for 2nds or "B+ prospects". A team looking to improve their roster isn't really going to care what a trade does for LA's cap situation, as long as it makes their own team better, especially if it's an Eastern conference team.
- tkecanuck341


Muzzin might be able to fetch a late first but again, he has another year on his deal. I think you're wrong about other team's caring about what it does for LA's cap. Cap space is as much a currency as players and draft picks are. It's is a thing of value and leverage in a trade negotiation.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:55 PM ET
Fair enough. I retract what I said previously. Let's hurry up and trade Doughty so we can fit him in.
- tkecanuck341


I hear you!
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:55 PM ET
All of everything is an assumption, until it happens.
- tkecanuck341


Just curious, if you are selling something, but I know you need the money really bad...do you think I am offering full value?
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

Dec 11 @ 7:04 PM ET
Muzzin might be able to fetch a late first but again, he has another year on his deal. I think you're wrong about other team's caring about what it does for LA's cap. Cap space is as much a currency as players and draft picks are. It's is a thing of value and leverage in a trade negotiation.
- MJL


If these players had NTCs and were able to limit the options of where the Kings could trade them, or if they were over the hill players with little to no value, then yes, I could see teams looking to leverage cap space against the Kings. However, they don't and they're not. A lot of teams would be competing for these players' services. I'm not saying there's going to be a bidding war and someone is going to overpay, but I don't think they're going to go for less than what they're worth either.

Muzzin's year remaining on his deal adds to his value, not subtracts. I've never heard anyone make the argument that a team would be willing to pay more for a player since his contract comes off the books in a few weeks. Rental players are certainly more tradeable since teams don't have to give up as much to get them. However, top-four defensemen with term are hard to come by, and the Kings have two of them for sale. They might sit on one until the draft so they don't flood the market. Martinez still has two years remaining on his contract, so he'd be the guy they'd likely keep.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

Dec 11 @ 7:05 PM ET
Just curious, if you are selling something, but I know you need the money really bad...do you think I am offering full value?
- Glak18


You are if there's 29 other people standing right next to you ready to make similar offers.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Dec 11 @ 7:08 PM ET
You are if there's 29 other people standing right next to you ready to make similar offers.
- tkecanuck341


Exactly, other teams are also selling what you got to.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 11 @ 7:10 PM ET
If these players had NTCs and were able to limit the options of where the Kings could trade them, or if they were over the hill players with little to no value, then yes, I could see teams looking to leverage cap space against the Kings. However, they don't and they're not. A lot of teams would be competing for these players' services. I'm not saying there's going to be a bidding war and someone is going to overpay, but I don't think they're going to go for less than what they're worth either.

Muzzin's year remaining on his deal adds to his value, not subtracts. I've never heard anyone make the argument that a team would be willing to pay more for a player since his contract comes off the books in a few weeks. Rental players are certainly more tradeable since teams don't have to give up as much to get them. However, top-four defensemen with term are hard to come by, and the Kings have two of them for sale. They might sit on one until the draft so they don't flood the market. Martinez still has two years remaining on his contract, so he'd be the guy they'd likely keep.

- tkecanuck341


You're greatly misunderstanding the market. In a negotiation, the cap space that LA gains in trading a player like Muzzin has value. A team is going to leverage that to pay less. It becomes part of the trade. It's not about whether the team wants the player for future years. It's about negotiating the price. That 4M in cap space for 19/20 is an asset. It's part of the return for LA.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Dec 11 @ 7:13 PM ET
Bryz has more series wins as a flyer than BOB has in his career
- KINGKENZO


So? I'd be very happy if they signed him.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Dec 11 @ 7:14 PM ET
His stats look awesome, but he was one of my all-time hated goalies for the Flyers. Absolutely overrated trash. Most of his saves he was looking the other way. People use to call him the giant Hasek
- Glak18


The players screwed him over.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Dec 11 @ 7:16 PM ET
The players screwed him over.
- Scoob


Only because he didn't share his pizza.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Dec 11 @ 7:22 PM ET
Only because he didn't share his pizza.
- Glak18


He doesn't share with quitters
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

Dec 11 @ 7:23 PM ET
You're greatly misunderstanding the market. In a negotiation, the cap space that LA gains in trading a player like Muzzin has value. A team is going to leverage that to pay less. It becomes part of the trade. It's not about whether the team wants the player for future years. It's about negotiating the price. That 4M in cap space for 19/20 is an asset. It's part of the return for LA.
- MJL


I do understand that. However, the amount that a trade partner is able to leverage it relies on a few variables. 1) How much competition is there for the player being traded for. 2) How badly do you want the player that is being offered. 3) How screwed is LA if they don't make the trade.

1) All three of the players that I mentioned will be highly sought after. 2) They could greatly help a team make a deep playoff run. 3) Since they're not rentals, the Kings could sit on them until the off-season and listen to offers at the draft or even next season's trade deadline.

All of the variables are in LA's favor here so the return will not be negatively affected. It's likely that teams looking to add their services will be in worse financial shape than LA (at least in the short-term), so if anything, they'll be the ones to add value in order to get the Kings to take back a player with a similar cap hit to make the financials work.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 11 @ 7:29 PM ET
I do understand that. However, the amount that a trade partner is able to leverage it relies on a few variables. 1) How much competition is there for the player being traded for. 2) How badly do you want the player that is being offered. e) How screwed is LA if they don't make the trade.

1) All three of the players that I mentioned will be highly sought after. 2) They could greatly help a team make a deep playoff run. 3) Since they're not rentals, the Kings could sit on them until the off-season and listen to offers at the draft or even next season's trade deadline.

All of the variables are in LA's favor here so the return will not be negatively affected. It's likely that teams looking to add their services will be in worse financial shape than LA (at least in the short-term), so if anything, they'll be the ones to add value in order to get the Kings to take back a player with a similar cap hit to make the financials work.

- tkecanuck341


Kings still have the ability to say no of course. I see 3 teams that are going to be definite playoff teams this season with plenty of cap space. They're going to be active at the deadline. One is Toronto. We know they aren't likely to want to take on future term. Nashville is already stacked on defense. They may prefer a rental. Colorado may have interest. I don't think the market is as favorable to LA as you think. That being said, it only takes one team to agree.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Dec 11 @ 7:31 PM ET
So, did we trade everyone for everybody else yet?
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Dec 11 @ 7:32 PM ET
Muzzin might be able to fetch a late first but again, he has another year on his deal. I think you're wrong about other team's caring about what it does for LA's cap. Cap space is as much a currency as players and draft picks are. It's is a thing of value and leverage in a trade negotiation.
- MJL

There would have to be a corresponding move with salary, but I’m a buyer at a first rounder for Muzzin.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Dec 11 @ 7:33 PM ET
So, did we trade everyone for everybody else yet?
- BiggE


Rumor is a trade will be announced tomorrow afternoon...

Speculation is trading pizza and wings for orange slices and a beverage to be named later.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Dec 11 @ 7:37 PM ET
Rumor is a trade will be announced tomorrow afternoon...

Speculation is trading pizza and wings for orange slices and a beverage to be named later.

- Glak18

If the beverage is 18 year old Macallan they need to make that deal
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Dec 11 @ 7:39 PM ET
If the beverage is 18 year old Macallan they need to make that deal
- BiggE


Leaks have said it could be a 30 year old Weise Whiskey
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Dec 11 @ 7:40 PM ET
Leaks have said it could be a 30 year old Weise Whiskey
- Glak18

Dale Weise, the Jacquins of NHL players.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Dec 11 @ 7:40 PM ET
Dale Weise, the Jacquins of NHL players.
- BiggE


xShoot4WarAmpsx
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hamilton, ON
Joined: 06.25.2010

Dec 11 @ 7:41 PM ET
LA will be fine.

I would love Quick on Philly but I am not willing to pay the price for him. End of the day he is signed until he is 37 which isnt bad for a goalie and at what will be a steal of a price at 5.8 mill. Goalies at that level are expensive and the going rates are climbing. As Cap increases so do Cap hits. You are going to see mor 8 mill Goalies going forward.

I can see a Market for Muzzin and Martinez which will fetch a good return given that they have another year at a cap friendly 4 mill, unlike AMac and his 5 mill.

The thing is with contracts like Phaneuf, Kovalchuk, Brown, Doughty, Kopitar they are basically there to stay. There will likely be some interest in some of those players but not enough that any will move.

You pretty much have that core for a while. Now Kings could jst be having a down year. They arent that bad of a team. There is a ton of skill there. Staying put could be their best option for now. I think they could easily bounce back but until they free up some space, they should not be handing out any more long term deals to FAs. Sign your RFAs and grab a journyman to fill holes until some of those contracts are gone.

You could probably deal Kovalchuk and Phaneuf in about 2 years . Toffoli, Muzzin, Martinez could be dealt this year. Carter can be dealt but probably better to keep him. Quick could be dealt to a contender in need of a goalie. Carolina comes to mind and you never really know with St. Louis. Philly is an option but I dont see it until offseason. I think they will take a look at what is available via FA but no guarantee that anyone signs. Edmonton, Calgary, Florida, Columbus, Ottawa, New Jersey and Vancouver could all look to LA for Quick come the offseason. These teams are either replacing aging goalies, Goalies walking away or just looking for an upgrade.
dragonoffrost
Season Ticket Holder
Location: The East Coast Dump, NJ
Joined: 10.12.2015

Dec 11 @ 7:43 PM ET
Only because he didn't share his pizza.
- Glak18

He had pineapple on it
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