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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Musings and Quick Hits: 12/11/18
Author Message
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:16 PM ET
Oh, I completely agree. That's why I said in my first post that if they were winning Hextall would still be here.
I'm just saying that because they were not winning, he may have needed to explain himself more and didn't. Obviously I have no idea what was happening with management at the time, just speculating

- Shafe5858


As always each side has their story and the truth is somewhere in the middle. I would bet that Holmgren wanted Hextall to escalate and get more aggressive. Hextall probably said he wasn't going to do that. There's the rift.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:18 PM ET
The Kings don't need to move Quick. He's still a quality goaltender. The only reason they would is to improve their prospect pipeline. If they don't get a reasonable offer for him, they'll keep him. Simple as that. They certainly don't need to pay to get rid of him.
- tkecanuck341


They don't have to move Quick, but they HAVE to move big salary. 5M + 3-4M cap increase is not a lot when you have RFAs to sign.

LA and Stl are in terrible shape...losing is bad enough, but losing and in cap hell is a bad mixture.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:22 PM ET
They don't have to move Quick, but they HAVE to move big salary. 5M + 3-4M cap increase is not a lot when you have RFAs to sign.

LA and Stl are in terrible shape...losing is bad enough, but losing and in cap hell is a bad mixture.

- Glak18


Every Cup team is going to get there. That's the cap being the cap. At least they won it twice. What's worse is being in that situation and not having won. That's the danger of trying to trade and sign your way to the top.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

Dec 11 @ 6:22 PM ET
They don't have to move Quick, but they HAVE to move big salary. 5M + 3-4M cap increase is not a lot when you have RFAs to sign.

LA and Stl are in terrible shape...losing is bad enough, but losing and in cap hell is a bad mixture.

- Glak18


The only RFAs that will get raises next season are Iafallo and Kempe. They have more enough cap space to sign both of those guys, even if they stand pat with their current roster. There are no other contracts that need replacing. Having Pearson on the books for the next few seasons might have presented a problem, but they solved that by moving him for Hagelin.

The following offseason would have seen Muzzin and Toffoli getting extensions, but neither of those guys are expected to be Kings 60 days from now.

The Kings cap situation isn't as dire as you make it out to be.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:27 PM ET
The only RFAs that will get raises next season are Iafallo and Kempe. They have more enough cap space to sign both of those guys, even if they stand pat with their current roster. There are no other contracts that need replacing. Having Pearson on the books for the next few seasons might have presented a problem, but they solved that by moving him for Hagelin.

The following offseason would have seen Muzzin and Toffoli getting extensions, but neither of those guys are expected to be Kings 60 days from now.

The Kings cap situation isn't as dire as you make it out to be.

- tkecanuck341


Ok you must not of looked at their cap situation recently, no they are far from fine. I GUARANTEE and you can quote me on that, that the Kings will move 1 or 2 players 4M or north before next season. There is no stand pat.

Iafallo, Kempe, Scherbak and Petersen are all RFAs. Even with retaining offers that is 70% of your cap space for next year. That is not good. Currently the Kings are in LTIR and LTIR is not free space, there is a penalty for dipping into it.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:27 PM ET
The only RFAs that will get raises next season are Iafallo and Kempe. They have more enough cap space to sign both of those guys, even if they stand pat with their current roster. There are no other contracts that need replacing. Having Pearson on the books for the next few seasons might have presented a problem, but they solved that by moving him for Hagelin.

The following offseason would have seen Muzzin and Toffoli getting extensions, but neither of those guys are expected to be Kings 60 days from now.

The Kings cap situation isn't as dire as you make it out to be.

- tkecanuck341


How are the Kings going to improve for next season?
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:32 PM ET
How are the Kings going to improve for next season?
- MJL


I know what could help the Flyers...by poaching Iafallo or Kempe for cents on the dollar.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:32 PM ET
Ok you must not of looked at their cap situation recently, no they are far from fine. I GUARANTEE and you can quote me on that, that the Kings will move 1 or 2 players 4M or north before next season. There is no stand pat.

Iafallo, Kempe, Scherbak and Petersen are all RFAs. Even with retaining offers that is 70% of your cap space for next year. That is not good. Currently the Kings are in LTIR and LTIR is not free space, there is a penalty for dipping into it.

- Glak18


Making retaining offers for those 4 will be about 50% if their cap space if the rumored 83M is correct.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

Dec 11 @ 6:33 PM ET
Ok you must not of looked at their cap situation recently, no they are far from fine. I GUARANTEE and you can quote me on that, that the Kings will move 1 or 2 players 4M or north before next season. There is no stand pat.

Iafallo, Kempe, Scherbak and Petersen are all RFAs. Even with retaining offers that is 70% of your cap space for next year. That is not good. Currently the Kings are in LTIR and LTIR is not free space, there is a penalty for dipping into it.

- Glak18


I've looked at their situation constantly. I'm very well versed in what it will look like. Unless Scherbak starts producing at ridiculous rates (which doesn't happen on the Kings), he's not going to be getting a raise.

Even with a healthy Quick and Kovalchuk and all of their RFAs re-signed, they'll come in at just over $81M. Here, I made a CapFriendly roster for you. I even put the salary cap at a conservative $82.5M, even though they expect that it will be north of $83M next season.

https://www.capfriendly.c...m/armchair-gm/team/949007

I'm not saying they will stand pat, just that they wouldn't have any cap issues if they did. I agree that they'll probably move Muzzin, Martinez, and Toffoli. Less likely, they'll move Carter and Quick, but still possibilities. However, they're going to move those players to add valuable futures, not to try and stay cap compliant.

If they don't get good value for the players they're looking to trade, they won't trade them. If they do, they will.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:35 PM ET
Making retaining offers for those 4 will be about 50% if their cap space if the rumored 83M is correct.
- MJL


I was just looking at that, I was calculating the space without the increase in my head. Thanks for the correction
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Dec 11 @ 6:36 PM ET
I think the "uncertainty" surrounding Quick's health is over exaggerated. He missed significant time a few seasons ago due to a groin injury. This season, he was out with a pulled hamstring, then again with a meniscus tear. All of those injuries were unrelated to each other.

He has played 60+ games in 4 of the last 5 seasons, even surpassing 70 in 2014-15. If you watch his recent performances, you can see that he's still on top of his game. Just watch his highlights from the Carolina game last week and Vegas just a few days ago. His W/L record has more to do with the team playing in front of him than his own play.

I can see the Kings including players with contracts expiring in the next year or two to even out the cap and roster slots in exchange for cap dumps. Players like Nate Thompson and Trevor Lewis would be on the table. However, Quick would be the primary value of the contract. If they're not getting back a 1st and a prospect for him, then they'll look elsewhere.

- tkecanuck341



I agree. 1st and a good B+ prospect. They’ll get it if you say he’s on top of his game
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

Dec 11 @ 6:36 PM ET
How are the Kings going to improve for next season?
- MJL


Cellar teams don't improve via free agency, if that's what you're implying. If they finish in the bottom 5, don't expect them to go shopping for big name UFAs.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:38 PM ET
I've looked at their situation constantly. I'm very well versed in what it will look like. Unless Scherbak starts producing at ridiculous rates (which doesn't happen on the Kings), he's not going to be getting a raise.

Even with a healthy Quick and Kovalchuk and all of their RFAs re-signed, they'll come in at just over $81M. Here, I made a CapFriendly roster for you. I even put the salary cap at a conservative $82.5M, even though they expect that it will be north of $83M next season.

https://www.capfriendly.c...m/armchair-gm/team/949007

I'm not saying they will stand pat, just that they wouldn't have any cap issues if they did. I agree that they'll probably move Muzzin, Martinez, and Toffoli. Less likely, they'll move Carter and Quick, but still possibilities. However, they're going to move those players to add valuable futures, not to try and stay cap compliant.

If they don't get good value for the players they're looking to trade, they won't trade them. If they do, they will.

- tkecanuck341


Without reading your analysis on what they should do, the most important part you wrote...is in bold.

Even if they get to 81M with an 83M cap...that is 2M in cap space. That is NOT whew we just made it, that is panic mode. That is not good and if LA expects to be in lose/rebuild mode again next year...they do not want to go back into LTIR again. That would be death.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:39 PM ET
I agree. 1st and a good B+ prospect. They’ll get it if you say he’s on top of his game
- Just5


Only way Quick gets a 1st and a B+ prospect is if he becomes Hasek from 98.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

Dec 11 @ 6:39 PM ET
I know what could help the Flyers...by poaching Iafallo or Kempe for cents on the dollar.
- Glak18


Everyone says this every year, yet we never see offer sheets get thrown around. If teams want to offer multi-millions to Kempe and Iafallo, that's fine. The Kings will be more than willing to take back the draft pick compensation that they'll get.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:42 PM ET
Everyone says this every year, yet we never see offer sheets get thrown around. If teams want to offer multi-millions to Kempe and Iafallo, that's fine. The Kings will be more than willing to take back the draft pick compensation that they'll get.
- tkecanuck341


Didn't say anything about an offer sheet. To put it in perspective, LA is in Chicago's position after 2010 cup where they had to gut some young guys from their roster just to make it.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:42 PM ET
I've looked at their situation constantly. I'm very well versed in what it will look like. Unless Scherbak starts producing at ridiculous rates (which doesn't happen on the Kings), he's not going to be getting a raise.

Even with a healthy Quick and Kovalchuk and all of their RFAs re-signed, they'll come in at just over $81M. Here, I made a CapFriendly roster for you. I even put the salary cap at a conservative $82.5M, even though they expect that it will be north of $83M next season.

https://www.capfriendly.c...m/armchair-gm/team/949007

I'm not saying they will stand pat, just that they wouldn't have any cap issues if they did. I agree that they'll probably move Muzzin, Martinez, and Toffoli. Less likely, they'll move Carter and Quick, but still possibilities. However, they're going to move those players to add valuable futures, not to try and stay cap compliant.

If they don't get good value for the players they're looking to trade, they won't trade them. If they do, they will.

- tkecanuck341


Scherbak's Q offer will give him 105% of his base salary. That's a 5% raise.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

Dec 11 @ 6:43 PM ET
Without reading your analysis on what they should do, the most important part you wrote...is in bold.

Even if they get to 81M with an 83M cap...that is 2M in cap space. That is NOT whew we just made it, that is panic mode. That is not good and if LA expects to be in lose/rebuild mode again next year...they do not want to go back into LTIR again. That would be death.

- Glak18


Again, this is if they stand pat, which they're not likely to do. My only point is that they're not in desperation mode to make moves to try and fit under the cap next season. I don't disagree that the Kings would like to have more space, but they'll be able to do that while bringing back value. They don't need to pay to clear space.

Like I said, Toffoli, Muzzin, and Martinez will all be gone 60 days from now. That's $13M off the books. Most of what the Kings will be looking are younger players on ELCs and futures. They might take back a roster player or two like they did with Hagelin, but odds are they will be expiring contracts or at most contracts with 1 year remaining. They're not going to be adding to their cap hit by moving these guys out.

MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:44 PM ET
Cellar teams don't improve via free agency, if that's what you're implying. If they finish in the bottom 5, don't expect them to go shopping for big name UFAs.
- tkecanuck341


I don't expect them to unless they can unload some contracts. They don't have the money to.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:45 PM ET
I agree. 1st and a good B+ prospect. They’ll get it if you say he’s on top of his game
- Just5


Fletcher would be incompetent to pay that.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

Dec 11 @ 6:45 PM ET
Scherbak's Q offer will give him 105% of his base salary. That's a 5% raise.
- MJL


It's a 5% raise over his base salary, not including bonuses. That comes out to just under $875k, a whopping $11k more than his current cap hit. That's a 1.3% increase.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:47 PM ET
Again, this is if they stand pat, which they're not likely to do. My only point is that they're not in desperation mode to make moves to try and fit under the cap next season. I don't disagree that the Kings would like to have more space, but they'll be able to do that while bringing back value. They don't need to pay to clear space.

Like I said, Toffoli, Muzzin, and Martinez will all be gone 60 days from now. That's $13M off the books. Most of what the Kings will be looking are younger players on ELCs and futures. They might take back a roster player or two like they did with Hagelin, but odds are they will be expiring contracts or at most contracts with 1 year remaining. They're not going to be adding to their cap hit by moving these guys out.

- tkecanuck341


Well we will have to agree to disagree, they are the definition of desperation moves currently.

Now if they trade Toffoli, Muzzin, and Martinez then yes that will help the team get some breathing room, but other teams know the situation LA is in and they are not doing them favors by taking salary for tons of assets.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:49 PM ET
It's a 5% raise over his base salary, not including bonuses. That comes out to just under $875k, a whopping $11k more than his current cap hit. That's a 1.3% increase.
- tkecanuck341


Yes, over base salary. Doubt he's a player who is going to his his bonuses. Although we don't know what they are. It's still a raise!
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 11 @ 6:50 PM ET
Well we will have to agree to disagree, they are the definition of desperation moves currently.

Now if they trade Toffoli, Muzzin, and Martinez then yes that will help the team get some breathing room, but other teams know the situation LA is in and they are not doing them favors by taking salary for tons of assets.

- Glak18


Teams at the deadline are also hesitant to take on future years.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

Dec 11 @ 6:51 PM ET
Well we will have to agree to disagree, they are the definition of desperation moves currently.

Now if they trade Toffoli, Muzzin, and Martinez then yes that will help the team get some breathing room, but other teams know the situation LA is in and they are not doing them favors by taking salary for tons of assets.

- Glak18


Toffoli, Muzzin, and Martinez are all for sale, and they will likely each fetch a quality return. Muzzin will probably get a 1st round pick or a top quality prospect. Martinez and Toffoli will likely go for 2nds or "B+ prospects". A team looking to improve their roster isn't really going to care what a trade does for LA's cap situation, as long as it makes their own team better, especially if it's an Eastern conference team.
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