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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Long-Term Gains
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RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Nov 23 @ 3:27 PM ET
Funny how Joki isnt making "smart plays"...started happening when paired with Gustafson

Seabrook, was forced to carry Gus as his pair last year...and Seabs play went down the toilet/got blamed for his play sliding

Joki with Keith (who people claim is washed up) and he looked like a future top pairing

JC comes in...plays him with Gus and now hes a healthy scratch

Yet, Gus us free to "be himself" without fear of making mistakes

Connect the dots

Same story is being written with ADB and Schmaltz

Q is gone, Schmaltz gets put in line 1, line 1 pp and ADB (teams top goal scorer last year) cant get a sniff with Toews and Kane...and he cant even get on the ice 3 on 3

- PatShart

Excellent post that sums it up perfectly.

Next step for Gus might be playing coach like they used to have in the AHL.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Nov 23 @ 3:29 PM ET
William Karlsson has emerged as a solid middle 6 center. His 40+ goals last season was an anamoly but he's still good for averaging 25-30 goals and 55-60 points while playing great defense. Kind of like Saad.

I personally would take Karlsson over Nylander, to be honest. If not them, and I know I've beat this drum before, I'd be interested in Wennberg from the Jackets.

- AEL_Fox


Hes hit +20 one time which was last year and is on pace for under 20 this year.

Pretty over rated player.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Nov 23 @ 3:46 PM ET
Hes hit +20 one time which was last year and is on pace for under 20 this year.

Pretty over rated player.

- fattybeef


How is a guy who was left available for the expansion draft overrated? Wouldn’t that make him underrated?
Tyler Cameron
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 10.31.2017

Nov 23 @ 4:25 PM ET
Coach Colliton says Jokiharju, Hayden and Martinsen are out, and Manning, Kunitz and Johnson will be back in the lineup. #Blackhawks⁠ ⁠
- walleyeb1


Jokiharju getting scratched isn't ideal for this team, but going back to the theme of this blog, it might be best for him and this team long-term.

Agree, he should be in there, however, his play has slipped a little over the last few games.
matt_ahrens
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: San Carlos, CA
Joined: 06.30.2014

Nov 23 @ 4:37 PM ET
Jokiharju getting scratched isn't ideal for this team, but going back to the theme of this blog, it might be best for him and this team long-term.

Agree, he should be in there, however, his play has slipped a little over the last few games.

- Justin Lowe


trying to look on the bright side of this relatively minor move, Joki is only 19 years old, playing in his first NHL season, playing for a new coach who implemented a new system, and who has been moved to a new D-partner. He doesn't deserve to be scratched but watching a game from the press box won't be the end of the world for him.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Nov 23 @ 4:50 PM ET
How is a guy who was left available for the expansion draft overrated? Wouldn’t that make him underrated?
- EnzoD


5.2 for one break out year was probably a fair deal. Expecting +30 goals and 70ish points out of him probably not a thing.

Depending on how the rest of the year goes id expect around 18 million over 3 years is where he ends up.

A piece guy at most. Not a franchise corner stone which is what he was made out to be last year.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Nov 23 @ 4:54 PM ET
Jokiharju getting scratched isn't ideal for this team, but going back to the theme of this blog, it might be best for him and this team long-term.

Agree, he should be in there, however, his play has slipped a little over the last few games.

- Justin Lowe


I guess. By that logic Seabrook should have a seat and someone needs to tell Keith he's 35. And to be fair Schmaltz should be upstairs too.

I think it's better to let the kid deal with it and learn how to adjust. Especially to the heavy schedule.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Nov 23 @ 4:58 PM ET
5.2 for one break out year was probably a fair deal. Expecting +30 goals and 70ish points out of him probably not a thing.

Depending on how the rest of the year goes id expect around 18 million over 3 years is where he ends up.

A piece guy at most. Not a franchise corner stone which is what he was made out to be last year.

- fattybeef



That’s fair. He’d be a great complement to Toews on that kind of contract. Every time I watch Vegas he’s all over the puck at both ends.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Nov 23 @ 5:01 PM ET
5.2 for one break out year was probably a fair deal. Expecting +30 goals and 70ish points out of him probably not a thing.

Depending on how the rest of the year goes id expect around 18 million over 3 years is where he ends up.

A piece guy at most. Not a franchise corner stone which is what he was made out to be last year.

- fattybeef

IMHO, he's at least a reliable 20/20 player who can be a solid 3rd line center and a decent 2C. He could push for 25+ goals and 50+ points if he does play top 6 with offensively talented linemates.

$6M for a 3C is pretty rich, though, unless the wingers on the 3rd line have cheaper salaries to balance things out. However, $6M AAV is fine if he can turn in the average numbers that Saad has registered in his career (minus last year's stats).
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Nov 23 @ 5:20 PM ET
IMHO, he's at least a reliable 20/20 player who can be a solid 3rd line center and a decent 2C. He could push for 25+ goals and 50+ points if he does play top 6 with offensively talented linemates.

$6M for a 3C is pretty rich, though, unless the wingers on the 3rd line have cheaper salaries to balance things out. However, $6M AAV is fine if he can turn in the average numbers that Saad has registered in his career (minus last year's stats).

- AEL_Fox


He’s a 2C on 90% of NHL teams and was the 1C on the Western Conference champions
Taylorst1
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 07.09.2018

Nov 23 @ 5:45 PM ET
Justin fantastic blog you wrote! I heard in order for the hawks to make a trade and get full use of the cap they would have to trade either picks and or prospects? I also heard Seabrook name being floated to Edmonton and Keith schmaltz to Winnipeg? Can you confirm if those rumors are true ?

walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Nov 23 @ 5:59 PM ET
Justin fantastic blog you wrote! I heard in order for the hawks to make a trade and get full use of the cap they would have to trade either picks and or prospects? I also heard Seabrook name being floated to Edmonton and Keith schmaltz to Winnipeg? Can you confirm if those rumors are true ?
- Taylorst1



I think they decided Wideman was a much cheaper option!
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Nov 23 @ 6:10 PM ET
This is for SimpleJack and others. Long-term Tanking as a Stategy is ridiculous, with no guarantees. The only guarantee is a damage to the Brand. You are just ignoring team finances.

This seems important SimpleJack so here you go - the Pens and the Hawks had success after drafting Crosby/Malkin and Kane/Toews. Yes they did but both teams struck “lightning in a bottle.” Not the norm. Also the success didn’t happen in a vaccum. For both teams other players played prominent rolls. In the case of the Pens new coaches played prominent rolls.

There are far more examples of teams that have drafted high year after year without ever putting it together. Very few teams have even won the Cup in the last many years. The Hawks, the Kings, the Pens. Caps broke through last year when many teams beat themselves. They faced Vegas who played hard and had great goaltending and coaching - BTW Vegas’ success goes completely against your arguments. Weren’t just a slew of other teams drafting 1st, 2nd and 3rd during those years?

The greatest teams are the ones that have changeover but remain uber-competetive, while seeded low as a rule, for drafting. The Patriots may be the best example. You don’t blow up a team that has Kane and Toews and others on it. Mistakes were made this year, the very biggest one being giving Q one last chance. The team is in survival mode because of this.

The one thing that everyone should have taken away from last year’s play-offs was the fact that not one of the play-off teams was a truly great, deep team with no holes. Every single team was beatable.

There are big decisions that need to be made. Gus must go. FlyBy Schmaltz too - get a player in return that you are not repeatedly questioning about heart and passion. At his core Schmaltz is who he is because he doesn’t care enough, if he cares at all. However, if he has the value that some of you think he does he should get a good return. Let another team worry about tapping into his huge unrealized talent - Ha!

I am not against shrewd trading and changing the make-up of the team.

- Z3Hawk


Losing damages the brand. Winning helps it. End of story.

They have about nine legit NHL players on the ice every night. This see what they have stretch is validation of value in the non-NHL players they have, and prove the FO had it right all along or not. I still think Q already did that work for them.

Without cap space, in a world where top level talent gets $6-14MM a year, the tank is the only path this front office has.

No talent coming for at least a year or two, and even then only one or two guys who are probably not top six/top four guys - for a year or two.

Two lottery picks in a row and some NMC dead weight gone should mean the turnaround is five years out.
TrueGrit
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: FL
Joined: 07.19.2011

Nov 23 @ 6:21 PM ET
William Karlsson is a hell of a 200ft center. Great speed, playmaking and responsible defensively. I forgot he only signed 1 yr with Vegas and he has now become #1 on my Hawks summer 2019 wish list. Anders Lee a close second, followed by Tyler Myers.

Saad-Toews-Cat
Lee-Karlsson-Kane

A guy can dream right??

- EnzoD



You are a dreamer....
Colbyboy
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Summerside , PEI
Joined: 12.14.2013

Nov 23 @ 6:29 PM ET
Kempney - scores for the Caps - what a shot!!!

Leddy a highlight reel goal for the Islanders

How good would these two look in a Hawks jersey 😁
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Nov 23 @ 6:34 PM ET
You are a dreamer....
- TrueGrit


TJYTJY
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.23.2017

Nov 23 @ 6:41 PM ET
Does John Jaeckel still write for The Rink?
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Nov 23 @ 7:01 PM ET
Does John Jaeckel still write for The Rink?
- TJYTJY


Doesn't he do game previews or game recaps?
I know I'm not helpful answering a question with a question haha. I think he does 1 of what I said. Every once in a while he addresses the overview and direction the teams "seems" to be heading.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Nov 23 @ 7:07 PM ET
Does John Jaeckel still write for The Rink?
- TJYTJY

Pretty sure he does. He seems to be the person who covers the Blackhawks while there are different reporters for each of the Hogs, Fuel, NCAA prospects, junior league prospects, etc.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Nov 23 @ 7:13 PM ET
I know it's too early and a lot can change over the next half year before the 2019 draft but here is Draft Site's current predictions for the Hawks on who they may pick (this also assumes the Hawks pick 7th in the 1st round):

https://www.draftsite.com/nhl/chicago/75/

I know Ricochet watches the USHL (anyone else?) so just wondering what the book is on Brady Meyer from Des Moines? Center who is 6'5" and 190 lbs. His Draft Site bio doesn't have any scouting report besides stating that he's committed to the University of Minnesota Duluth after this year.
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Nov 23 @ 7:15 PM ET
Jokiharju getting scratched isn't ideal for this team, but going back to the theme of this blog, it might be best for him and this team long-term.

Agree, he should be in there, however, his play has slipped a little over the last few games.

- Justin Lowe


he is a 19 year old "being forced" to grow up in the NHL way to soon...why because the hawk blueline way be the worse in the league...

he has has played extremely well and is very poised but this is still a huge jump for the young fin
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Nov 23 @ 7:15 PM ET
Does John Jaeckel still write for The Rink?
- TJYTJY


very rarely...
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Nov 23 @ 7:44 PM ET
Tyler Johnson 1-0. Caps game all over .....
ArlingtonRob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 230 years was a good run, IL
Joined: 01.20.2012

Nov 23 @ 7:44 PM ET
30 seconds in...

...game over.
Spec41971
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Rolling meadows, IL
Joined: 03.04.2017

Nov 23 @ 7:45 PM ET
Johnson 1-0. Caps game all over .....
- I Am The Breadman


Jeez!!!
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