Justin Lowe: Long-Term Gains

I'm not going to do a cliché "what I'm thankful for" blog today. That is because I've already done a cliché "what I'm thankful for" blog for Canadian Thanksgiving in October.

I am going to stick with the positive and "thankful" theme though; I want to take a different take on how this season could be extremely beneficial for the Blackhawks organization, even if they end up in the bottom 10 teams in the league.
- Justin Lowe

This is for SimpleJack and others. Long-term Tanking as a Stategy is ridiculous, with no guarantees. The only guarantee is a damage to the Brand. You are just ignoring team finances.

This seems important SimpleJack so here you go - the Pens and the Hawks had success after drafting Crosby/Malkin and Kane/Toews. Yes they did but both teams struck “lightning in a bottle.” Not the norm. Also the success didn’t happen in a vaccum. For both teams other players played prominent rolls. In the case of the Pens new coaches played prominent rolls.

There are far more examples of teams that have drafted high year after year without ever putting it together. Very few teams have even won the Cup in the last many years. The Hawks, the Kings, the Pens. Caps broke through last year when many teams beat themselves. They faced Vegas who played hard and had great goaltending and coaching - BTW Vegas’ success goes completely against your arguments. Weren’t just a slew of other teams drafting 1st, 2nd and 3rd during those years?

The greatest teams are the ones that have changeover but remain uber-competetive, while seeded low as a rule, for drafting. The Patriots may be the best example. You don’t blow up a team that has Kane and Toews and others on it. Mistakes were made this year, the very biggest one being giving Q one last chance. The team is in survival mode because of this.

The one thing that everyone should have taken away from last year’s play-offs was the fact that not one of the play-off teams was a truly great, deep team with no holes. Every single team was beatable.

There are big decisions that need to be made. Gus must go. FlyBy Schmaltz too - get a player in return that you are not repeatedly questioning about heart and passion. At his core Schmaltz is who he is because he doesn’t care enough, if he cares at all. However, if he has the value that some of you think he does he should get a good return. Let another team worry about tapping into his huge unrealized talent - Ha!

I am not against shrewd trading and changing the make-up of the team.

So.... Jokiharju is a healthy scratch tonight. Q keeps hating young players.

Seriously though, this is a stupid move.
- DarthKane

Coach Colliton says Jokiharju, Hayden and Martinsen are out, and Manning, Kunitz and Johnson will be back in the lineup. #Blackhawks⁠ ⁠

In November, the Hawks have a 57.2% Corsi and 59% of the 5v5 scoring chances with Jokiharju on the ice.

Pretty sure the .950 PDO isn’t his fault.

Adam Boqvist with real strong game yesterday. 2+1 and was named first star. I´d say Boqvist is two years away from being NHL ready. Maybe he´ll join IceHogs next season but I don´t think he should be playing for Blackhawks next year. Ian Mitchell is probably closest one to make the team next fall. Don´t know that much about Beaudin though.
- MjulQvist

Here is a guarantee for you. Boqvist makes the Hawks next year and runs the First PP as part of his duties.

So.... Jokiharju is a healthy scratch tonight. Q keeps hating young players.

Seriously though, this is a stupid move.
- DarthKane

This sitting/scratching Joki really blows!!

.

Why possibly would you want RNH?
- Z3Hawk

Better than schmaltz and him for 2 more years after this one at 6 million is better money spent then Seabrooks deal.

I assume you meant William Karlsson in Vegas since he's only on a one-year deal, but maybe you meant Erik Karlsson who I don't think has signed a multi-year deal in San Jose?
- AEL_Fox

Def Erik.

Coach Colliton says Jokiharju, Hayden and Martinsen are out, and Manning, Kunitz and Johnson will be back in the lineup. #Blackhawks⁠ ⁠
- walleyeb1

This makes complete sense regarding Joki. Joki has not been playing smart hockey lately and has been running around. Hawks got to 3-2 with momentum. Joki then played the wrong side of the ice leaving Smith-Pelley wide open on his side. It was an awful play. 4-2 Game Over. He deserves to sit.

If ever there was a game where Hayden and Martinsen should have been hitting it was the last one. Kane and Toews were being cheap-shotted all night and Hayden and Martinsen hit nobody. Not suprised they are healthy scratches.

Better than schmaltz and him for 2 more years after this one at 6 million is better money spent then Seabrooks deal.
- fattybeef

RNH is about as weak a player as has ever played. Put as McDavid’s winger to get him points. RNH not a force on his own.

Coach Colliton says Jokiharju, Hayden and Martinsen are out, and Manning, Kunitz and Johnson will be back in the lineup. #Blackhawks⁠ ⁠
- walleyeb1

Not sure if this is even the reason that they're scratched today but, as another poster pointed out in the last blog, Hayden and Martinsen failed to do a certain job that is really their calling card in the NHL: play a heavy game with timely hits and being physical every shift.

In a game where Wilson did whatever he wanted and the Caps just generally giving the business to Toews and Kane despite it being a game with a low number of registered hits, Hayden and Martinsen were invisible or at least inconsequential.

If they're not playing heavy games and making a difference with the physicality quotient, then there is no need for them in the lineup. So in that regard, I'm not surprise they're scratched: crap in the pot or get off.

And yes, agree with others: unless he's sick or injured or has a family emergency, scratching Jokiharju is just plain dumb.

This makes complete sense regarding Joki. Joki has not been playing smart hockey lately and has been running around. Hawks got to 3-2 with momentum. Joki then played the wrong side of the ice leaving Smith-Pelley wide open on his side. It was an awful play. 4-2 Game Over. He deserves to sit.

If ever there was a game where Hayden and Martinsen should have been hitting it was the last one. Kane and Toews were being cheap-shotted all night and Hayden and Martinsen hit nobody. Not suprised they are healthy scratches.
- Z3Hawk

You beat me to it with the commentary on Hayden and Martinsen.

As for Jokiharju, yes he is making mistakes but let him play through them and learn. He's not a problem on this team and will be part of the solution this year and in the future. Can't say the same for 40 and 29.

This makes complete sense regarding Joki. Joki has not been playing smart hockey lately and has been running around. Hawks got to 3-2 with momentum. Joki then played the wrong side of the ice leaving Smith-Pelley wide open on his side. It was an awful play. 4-2 Game Over. He deserves to sit.

If ever there was a game where Hayden and Martinsen should have been hitting it was the last one. Kane and Toews were being cheap-shotted all night and Hayden and Martinsen hit nobody. Not suprised they are healthy scratches.
- Z3Hawk

I agree about Hayden and Martinsen. I expect Hayden to be sent down soon for some other help because he's just not bringing what he needs to.

But Jokiharju making a mistake like that for the first time does not warrant a benching when Gustafsson is doing it three or four times every single game. One player is 19 and still learning a lot of new things playing against pros for a full season for the first time. The other one should have enough experience under his belt at this point to stay away from bone headed plays. That goes for Manning as well.
It would be nice to see Gus be held accountable like others have.

RNH is about as weak a player as has ever played. Put as McDavid’s winger to get him points. RNH not a force on his own.
- Z3Hawk

That's why you put him with Kane...

You don't need a force you need to get rid of Seabrook money. And RNH is solid in all the zones.

Def Erik.
- fattybeef

Thanks for clarifying.

He's not having a stellar season but still pretty good. That could help temper his contract terms to make his AAV more affordable that what it could be.

I agree about Hayden and Martinsen. I expect Hayden to be sent down soon for some other help because he's just not bringing what he needs to.

But Jokiharju making a mistake like that for the first time does not warrant a benching when Gustafsson is doing it three or four times every single game. One player is 19 and still learning a lot of new things playing against pros for a full season for the first time. The other one should have enough experience under his belt at this point to stay away from bone headed plays. That goes for Manning as well.
It would be nice to see Gus be held accountable like others have.
- Hawks_49

Smells like selective accountability to me.

William Karlsson is a hell of a 200ft center. Great speed, playmaking and responsible defensively. I forgot he only signed 1 yr with Vegas and he has now become #1 on my Hawks summer 2019 wish list. Anders Lee a close second, followed by Tyler Myers.

Saad-Toews-Cat
Lee-Karlsson-Kane

A guy can dream right??

William Karlsson is a hell of a 200ft center. Great speed, playmaking and responsible defensively. I forgot he only signed 1 yr with Vegas and he has now become #1 on my Hawks summer 2019 wish list. Anders Lee a close second, followed by Tyler Myers.

Saad-Toews-Cat
Lee-Karlsson-Kane

A guy can dream right??
- EnzoD

William Karlsson has emerged as a solid middle 6 center. His 40+ goals last season was an anamoly but he's still good for averaging 25-30 goals and 55-60 points while playing great defense. Kind of like Saad.

I personally would take Karlsson over Nylander, to be honest. If not them, and I know I've beat this drum before, I'd be interested in Wennberg from the Jackets.

This makes complete sense regarding Joki. Joki has not been playing smart hockey lately and has been running around. Hawks got to 3-2 with momentum. Joki then played the wrong side of the ice leaving Smith-Pelley wide open on his side. It was an awful play. 4-2 Game Over. He deserves to sit.

If ever there was a game where Hayden and Martinsen should have been hitting it was the last one. Kane and Toews were being cheap-shotted all night and Hayden and Martinsen hit nobody. Not suprised they are healthy scratches.
- Z3Hawk

I’m actually not sure it was Jokiharju’s mistake, I don’t think there is a wrong side of the ice when playing a man defense vs a zone. The only thing I think he did wrong was letting the pass get across. He was definitely playing a tight gap.

If anything it was Saad’s errant pass that got picked off that set this goal in motion.

William Karlsson has emerged as a solid middle 6 center. His 40+ goals last season was an anamoly but he's still good for averaging 25-30 goals and 55-60 points while playing great defense. Kind of like Saad.

I personally would take Karlsson over Nylander, to be honest. If not them, and I know I've beat this drum before, I'd be interested in Wennberg from the Jackets.
- AEL_Fox

Didn’t watch the game in Washington, but the fact that 26 year old turnover machine Gustafson has not been scratched yet but 19 yr old Jokiharju is scratched tonight....SMFH

Be careful what you wish for. Very careful. I think owner should prohibit all trades until mgt is upgraded.

Funny how Joki isnt making "smart plays"...started happening when paired with Gustafson

Seabrook, was forced to carry Gus as his pair last year...and Seabs play went down the toilet/got blamed for his play sliding

Joki with Keith (who people claim is washed up) and he looked like a future top pairing

JC comes in...plays him with Gus and now hes a healthy scratch

Yet, Gus us free to "be himself" without fear of making mistakes

Connect the dots

Same story is being written with ADB and Schmaltz

Q is gone, Schmaltz gets put in line 1, line 1 pp and ADB (teams top goal scorer last year) cant get a sniff with Toews and Kane...and he cant even get on the ice 3 on 3

Funny how Joki isnt making "smart plays"...started happening when paired with Gustafson

Seabrook, was forced to carry Gus as his pair last year...and Seabs play went down the toilet/got blamed for his play sliding

Joki with Keith (who people claim is washed up) and he looked like a future top pairing

JC comes in...plays him with Gus and now hes a healthy scratch

Yet, Gus us free to "be himself" without fear of making mistakes

Connect the dots

Same story is being written with ADB and Schmaltz

Q is gone, Schmaltz gets put in line 1, line 1 pp and ADB (teams top goal scorer last year) cant get a sniff with Toews and Kane...and he cant even get on the ice 3 on 3
- PatShart

Joki keith
forsling seabrook
murphy manning/gus
Davidson rutta could trade for a bag of pucks
joki was playing very well when wit keith now be paring with gus not so much but who is calling the shots who knows.

I’m actually not sure it was Jokiharju’s mistake, I don’t think there is a wrong side of the ice when playing a man defense vs a zone. The only thing I think he did wrong was letting the pass get across. He was definitely playing a tight gap.

If anything it was Saad’s errant pass that got picked off that set this goal in motion.
- walleyeb1

Agree with that perspective on playing man-to-man versus zone defense which is why some of the players (maybe many or most) are liking this new system. As Manning said, he likes the fact that if there's a loose puck then he can just go get it rather than worry staying in a certain zone.

One thing that does concern me and may just be part of a learning curve to adjust to a new defense system is that there are many times at even strength when there will be a board battle with 3 Hawks and 2 opposing players meaning someone is not covering his man.

Joki keith
forsling seabrook
murphy manning/gus
Davidson rutta could trade for a bag of pucks
joki was playing very well when wit keith now be paring with gus not so much but who is calling the shots who knows.
- Scott1977

I like those pairings. Adjusting for their LHD/RHD preferences:

Jokiharju - Keith
Forsling - Seabrook
Manning/Murphy - Gustafsson

Gustafsson needs to have a stay-at-home partner to cover his butt because heaven knows he's attracted by the siren song of the O zone. If he's not going to change and get it coached out of him to play responsible defense, then get him a partner who will always play back.

Funny how Joki isnt making "smart plays"...started happening when paired with Gustafson

Seabrook, was forced to carry Gus as his pair last year...and Seabs play went down the toilet/got blamed for his play sliding

Joki with Keith (who people claim is washed up) and he looked like a future top pairing

JC comes in...plays him with Gus and now hes a healthy scratch

Yet, Gus us free to "be himself" without fear of making mistakes

Connect the dots

Same story is being written with ADB and Schmaltz

Q is gone, Schmaltz gets put in line 1, line 1 pp and ADB (teams top goal scorer last year) cant get a sniff with Toews and Kane...and he cant even get on the ice 3 on 3
- PatShart

Actually on that play he was paired with Keith, Boyd just blew past Keith, if Jokiharju didn’t pick him up he would have had a clear path to the net.