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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: What Did I Miss?
Author Message
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Nov 19 @ 1:20 PM ET
with out craw standing on head they have no chance...the team defense has improved but still getting out chanced and making to many unforced errors...forsling has helped...less minutes for manning and davidson on IR soon to be gone when murphy comes back...

no secondary scoring or threat at all...

- bogiedoc



This and this.

After looking at the last two games there is still an unsustainable level of SOG against, and A+ chances against. I mean last night they gave up 40 SOG to a team that was playing its third game in four days...

They are still a one line team, and unless they add NHL level talent, they will continue to be a one line team. This means they will have to win games scoring three or less night in and night out. Unsustainable.

And to any one who thinks that in Rockford or other affiliates lots of NHL level talent resides that will make a difference sooner than two to three years from now is pretty high. At best - two or three guys. And none of them are top six/top four candidates.


EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Nov 19 @ 1:23 PM ET
I'd just add, I don't think anyone expected the bottom 6 to score a lot, but I think it is safe to say it has been even worse than expected.

After our top forwards (Kane,Toews,Saad,DeBrincat) here are the goals

Schmaltz - 2
Kruger - 2
Kampf - 2
AA - 2
Kahun - 2
Fortin - 2
Hayden - 1
Kunitz - 0
Martinsen - 0
Johnson - 0

I know with bottom 6 guys, it can be a bit more up and down, but it is pretty much "Down" for all of them. Schmaltz has had chances and breakaways with little success. AA is what he is, he doesn't score without someone like Kane or Panarin with him. Some other guys like Hayden just not showing any improvement year over year. Kunitz should still be good for the odd goal (he had 13 last season) but so far, not one.

- breadbag


YIKES....Corey Crawford named NHL's 2nd Star of the Week.... 2-0-1 0.65 GAA 98% save %
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Nov 19 @ 1:36 PM ET
Ha someone saw my suggestion
- Savetheembers33

Toffoli is a hybrid of Saad and DeBrincat. Shooter mentality like DeBrincat, able to score from anywhere on the ice, with a bulldog mentality like Saad to drive to the net with size and speed.

Offensive output by Toffoli is similar to Saad if they hit their potential, i.e. around 25 goals and 50-55 points but capable of 30 goals and 55-60 points if they're banging on all cylinders year round. Between the two, Toffoli has the ability to be a consistent 30-35 goal scorer. Saad is more in the 25-30 range.
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Nov 19 @ 1:38 PM ET
another problem is cat has shown he Patrick Sharp like: scores in bunches then can't find the net or assists for several games...toews is similar

the only consistent scorer or offensive threat is kane and he can't do it every night...
he is is playing all pp minutes and still this they suck on the PP...
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Nov 19 @ 1:40 PM ET
another problem is cat has shown he Patrick Sharp like: scores in bunches then can't find the net or assists for several games...toews is similar

the only consistent scorer or offensive threat is kane and he can't do it every night...
he is is playing all pp minutes and still this they suck on the PP...

- bogiedoc


It is compounded by the fact that 19, 88 and 12 are the only ones who can score.
Z3Hawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.04.2017

Nov 19 @ 1:45 PM ET
posted this on the old blog a minute ago..

The good lately, is the Hawks are not giving up goals... 2 goals against in the last 3 games. The bad part of that...it is pretty much just because of goaltending. There have been lots of good chances against and lots of shots, but the Hawks are getting the best sv% in the league at 98% over the last 3 games and they also have the best high danger sv% in their last 3 games.

In that span (and the score will be a factor here) but the Hawks bottom 5 in terms of shots for and shots against. Mostly it is that they aren't generating enough offensively at the moment, but their goalie is holding them in it. It is still early in terms of the new coach, but I hopefully they can start to build a little momentum here and play a better 60 minutes, because Crawford won't stop all these pucks forever.

- breadbag


As a rule I have problems with secondary stats and find them to be useful only when they are truly contextual which isn’t often or ever. Additionally, the definitions used can make these stats even more useless.

To say that the giving up of 2 goals in the last 3 games is solely because of goaltending is simply wrong.

While Crawford is making saves he is making a certain type of save over and over again, and the reason for this is the new Defensive System. The Defensive System has actually changed drastically and it is not simply due to the zone versus man to man issue. What has changed is that mindless pinching and out of position offensive play by the D-Men has been minimized, almost to the point of irradication. Gus, however, still recently got caught up-ice, fell down, lost the puck with the result being a goal against. However, this type of poor play has become rare, the exception not the rule. Under Ulf’s ludicrous old Defensive System the Hawks gave up odd man breaks against at a staggering rate.

Crawford has not been facing many or any break-aways or odd-man break situations, from game to game. Crawford has also not been facing many or any down low backdoor plays or side to side plays, from game to game. Obviously, Crawford plays no role regarding the type of shots he faces so he cannot be responsible, although he will be the benefactor. Crawford is being allowed to square up to shooters, who are being made to shoot from a certain distance. Crawford himself has mentioned that the team is helping him by keeping things clean and clearing things out. Crawford still has to make these saves, and he has been doing so brilliantly, but the low goals against is a team effort.

Give me any day a Defensive System that is intelligent and minimizes break-aways and odd man breaks, while also protecting the front of the net. I’ll trust Crawford to make all or almost all
the other saves, regardless of how they’re graded.
Savetheembers33
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 01.23.2017

Nov 19 @ 1:55 PM ET
Toffoli is a hybrid of Saad and DeBrincat. Shooter mentality like DeBrincat, able to score from anywhere on the ice, with a bulldog mentality like Saad to drive to the net with size and speed.

Offensive output by Toffoli is similar to Saad if they hit their potential, i.e. around 25 goals and 50-55 points but capable of 30 goals and 55-60 points if they're banging on all cylinders year round. Between the two, Toffoli has the ability to be a consistent 30-35 goal scorer. Saad is more in the 25-30 range.

- AEL_Fox


I think what he brings to the table would be very good for this team for the next year or two. Adds another big guy who can score goals and take some of the pressure off the of Kane and Toews to go along with Cat, Saad, AA, Schmaltz, as the secondary scoring on this team. IF the team continues to play well and is looking at a real possibly run at a Playoff spot I would not mind going out and getting him to help now. If they aren't and they're just hovering around, then I'd save the money until FA and try to clear some more space to sign one of the big names.
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Nov 19 @ 1:55 PM ET
As a rule I have problems with secondary stats and find them to be useful only when they are truly contextual which isn’t often or ever. Additionally, the definitions used can make these stats even more useless.

To say that the giving up of 2 goals in the last 3 games is solely because of goaltending is simply wrong.

While Crawford is making saves he is making a certain type of save over and over again, and the reason for this is the new Defensive System. The Defensive System has actually changed drastically and it is not simply due to the zone versus man to man issue. What has changed is that mindless pinching and out of position offensive play by the D-Men has been minimized, almost to the point of irradication. Gus, however, still recently got caught up-ice, fell down, lost the puck with the result being a goal against. However, this type of poor play has become rare, the exception not the rule. Under Ulf’s ludicrous old Defensive System the Hawks gave up odd man breaks against at a staggering rate.

Crawford has not been facing many or any break-aways or odd-man break situations, from game to game. Crawford has also not been facing many or any down low backdoor plays or side to side plays, from game to game. Obviously, Crawford plays no role regarding the type of shots he faces so he cannot be responsible, although he will be the benefactor. Crawford is being allowed to square up to shooters, who are being made to shoot from a certain distance. Crawford himself has mentioned that the team is helping him by keeping things clean and clearing things out. Crawford still has to make these saves, and he has been doing so brilliantly, but the low goals against is a team effort.

Give me any day a Defensive System that is intelligent and minimizes break-aways and odd man breaks, while also protecting the front of the net. I’ll trust Crawford to make all or almost all
the other saves, regardless of how they’re graded.

- Z3Hawk


you are so wrong again. The guy faced forty shots last night. He made 6-10 high quality saves when his mates bailed. There was one play where keith and seabs looked liked they never saw a two man forecheck before and coughed it up and craw had to make 3 saves...

team effort my ass...forsling has helped but craw has saved 98 out of 100 the last 3 games thats an average of 33 sog's against...the team d is marginally better but is still pss poor...

.65 GA and .98 save % just ain't good enough for ya over the last 3 games...HE GOT THIS TEAM 5 OF 6 PTS...while his mates scored 4 goals in regulation...
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Nov 19 @ 1:57 PM ET
As a rule I have problems with secondary stats and find them to be useful only when they are truly contextual which isn’t often or ever. Additionally, the definitions used can make these stats even more useless.

To say that the giving up of 2 goals in the last 3 games is solely because of goaltending is simply wrong.

While Crawford is making saves he is making a certain type of save over and over again, and the reason for this is the new Defensive System. The Defensive System has actually changed drastically and it is not simply due to the zone versus man to man issue. What has changed is that mindless pinching and out of position offensive play by the D-Men has been minimized, almost to the point of irradication. Gus, however, still recently got caught up-ice, fell down, lost the puck with the result being a goal against. However, this type of poor play has become rare, the exception not the rule. Under Ulf’s ludicrous old Defensive System the Hawks gave up odd man breaks against at a staggering rate.

Crawford has not been facing many or any break-aways or odd-man break situations, from game to game. Crawford has also not been facing many or any down low backdoor plays or side to side plays, from game to game. Obviously, Crawford plays no role regarding the type of shots he faces so he cannot be responsible, although he will be the benefactor. Crawford is being allowed to square up to shooters, who are being made to shoot from a certain distance. Crawford himself has mentioned that the team is helping him by keeping things clean and clearing things out. Crawford still has to make these saves, and he has been doing so brilliantly, but the low goals against is a team effort.

Give me any day a Defensive System that is intelligent and minimizes break-aways and odd man breaks, while also protecting the front of the net. I’ll trust Crawford to make all or almost all
the other saves, regardless of how they’re graded.

- Z3Hawk


I'm not saying things haven't changed, but you only have to look at the point blank chances Crawford has stopped to know that he is the reason they only gave up 2 goals. Odd man chances are one thing, but no goalie is going to consistently stop 98% of those shots over the long term. What the Hawks have done over the last 3 games defensively is not sustainable. It might be an improvement over the first 4-5 weeks of the season, but Crawford still had to play nearly perfectly to keep them ahead. Doesn't matter if they were odd man breaks or backdoor plays. There were still tons of high percentage plays and down low cycle where guys got all alone in front.
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Nov 19 @ 2:01 PM ET
I think what he brings to the table would be very good for this team for the next year or two. Adds another big guy who can score goals and take some of the pressure off the of Kane and Toews to go along with Cat, Saad, AA, Schmaltz, as the secondary scoring on this team. IF the team continues to play well and is looking at a real possibly run at a Playoff spot I would not mind going out and getting him to help now. If they aren't and they're just hovering around, then I'd save the money until FA and try to clear some more space to sign one of the big names.
- Savetheembers33


I would love to have Toffoli or Martinez ... as long as he gets a shame/haze every practice haha.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Nov 19 @ 2:06 PM ET
Saad is playing well since he started wearing the Fish Bowl....he has to keep it on until he cools down again
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Nov 19 @ 2:07 PM ET
It is compounded by the fact that 19, 88 and 12 are the only ones who can score.
- Return of the Roar

and #20 - six goals in his last 11 games I think shows he can score.

But - yes - apparently - no one else can.

Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Nov 19 @ 2:08 PM ET
I'm not saying things haven't changed, but you only have to look at the point blank chances Crawford has stopped to know that he is the reason they only gave up 2 goals. Odd man chances are one thing, but no goalie is going to consistently stop 98% of those shots over the long term. What the Hawks have done over the last 3 games defensively is not sustainable. It might be an improvement over the first 4-5 weeks of the season, but Crawford still had to play nearly perfectly to keep them ahead. Doesn't matter if they were odd man breaks or backdoor plays. There were still tons of high percentage plays and down low cycle where guys got all alone in front.
- breadbag


I haven't seen much of the last two games, but in the previous three, the D has seemed to be much more active (and effective) in keeping opponents out of the crease and clearing pucks if they are there. They seem to be collapsing more to try and protect the house.

The shot metrics don' look great right now, but I don't get all that worked up about the shot differential as I do with the actual scoring chances. The Hawks have had a number of games where they put up a ton of shots, but few scoring chances. They have been out-chanced at bit lately, but less so than before and to the eye, they seem to be making safer plays.
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Nov 19 @ 2:09 PM ET
Saad is playing well since he started wearing the Fish Bowl....he has to keep it on until he cools down again
- EnzoD


Hahahaha, I like that more than Hannibal Lecter mask. I think it keeps his brain from oozing out. Whatever keeps him scoring haha.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Nov 19 @ 2:09 PM ET
Saad is playing well since he started wearing the Fish Bowl....he has to keep it on until he cools down again
- EnzoD


So they have one in Schmaltz's size? Maybe they can fit him for one with blinders so he can't see all of his pass options.
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Nov 19 @ 2:11 PM ET
So they have one in Schmaltz's size? Maybe they can fit him for one with blinders so he can't see all of his pass options.
- Chunk


He needs a VR helmet that erases everyone out of his view, and it looks like he's on a constant breakaway. Haha
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Nov 19 @ 2:12 PM ET
I haven't seen much of the last two games, but in the previous three, the D has seemed to be much more active (and effective) in keeping opponents out of the crease and clearing pucks if they are there. They seem to be collapsing more to try and protect the house.

The shot metrics don' look great right now, but I don't get all that worked up about the shot differential as I do with the actual scoring chances. The Hawks have had a number of games where they put up a ton of shots, but few scoring chances. They have been out-chanced at bit lately, but less so than before and to the eye, they seem to be making safer plays.

- Chunk


Would like to see Forsling-Jokiharju as the 2nd pair. Forsling can bring some offense, and is much more reliable defensively. Gustafson has skating/puck skill but is a turnover machine and liability in his own zone.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Nov 19 @ 2:16 PM ET
I would love to have Toffoli or Martinez ... as long as he gets a shame/haze every practice haha.
- I Am The Breadman

Would love to pursue Martinez or Muzzin but the Kings need their defensemen given their goalie injuries. Maybe pursue down the line once Quick and Campbell are back.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Nov 19 @ 2:17 PM ET
Would like to see Forsling-Jokiharju as the 2nd pair. Forsling can bring some offense, and is much more reliable defensively. Gustafson has skating/puck skill but is a turnover machine and liability in his own zone.
- EnzoD

I'm leaning towards that, too. Gustafsson needs a stay-at-home partner like Manning or Murphy. I think Forsling and Jokiharju could be a really strong pair on both sides of the ice.
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Nov 19 @ 2:18 PM ET
Would love to pursue Martinez or Muzzin but the Kings need their defensemen given their goalie injuries. Maybe pursue down the line once Quick and Campbell are back.
- AEL_Fox


I'll wait, haha, we're riding high on an upswing!
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Nov 19 @ 2:19 PM ET
He needs a VR helmet that erases everyone out of his view, and it looks like he's on a constant breakaway. Haha
- I Am The Breadman

Honestly, I don't think that's a bad idea. I recall articles about the Golden State Warriors and possibly other NBA teams using virtual reality goggles during practices to simulate tough offensive situations like a defender coming at you hard, putting a hand in your face, double teaming you, etc.

For Steph Curry especially, that type of technology and other new age drills have helped him elevate his game each year rather than flatlining. Curry is like Kane: just gets better each year even as they enter their 30's.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Nov 19 @ 2:20 PM ET
Honestly, I don't think that's a bad idea. I recall articles about the Golden State Warriors and possibly other NBA teams using virtual reality goggles during practices to simulate tough offensive situations like a defender coming at you hard, putting a hand in your face, double teaming you, etc.
- AEL_Fox


Is that really better the Hawks faithful mannequins...
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Nov 19 @ 2:21 PM ET
Honestly, I don't think that's a bad idea. I recall articles about the Golden State Warriors and possibly other NBA teams using virtual reality goggles during practices to simulate tough offensive situations like a defender coming at you hard, putting a hand in your face, double teaming you, etc.
- AEL_Fox


Haven't they just lost their last 4 games out of 5???? I don't want their VR goggles! Hahaha
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Nov 19 @ 2:22 PM ET
Is that really better the Hawks faithful mannequins...
- breadbag

Mannequins are unionized. VR goggles are not. So I guess we're stuck with the mannequins.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Nov 19 @ 2:26 PM ET
As a rule I have problems with secondary stats and find them to be useful only when they are truly contextual which isn’t often or ever. Additionally, the definitions used can make these stats even more useless.

To say that the giving up of 2 goals in the last 3 games is solely because of goaltending is simply wrong.

While Crawford is making saves he is making a certain type of save over and over again, and the reason for this is the new Defensive System. The Defensive System has actually changed drastically and it is not simply due to the zone versus man to man issue. What has changed is that mindless pinching and out of position offensive play by the D-Men has been minimized, almost to the point of irradication. Gus, however, still recently got caught up-ice, fell down, lost the puck with the result being a goal against. However, this type of poor play has become rare, the exception not the rule. Under Ulf’s ludicrous old Defensive System the Hawks gave up odd man breaks against at a staggering rate.

Crawford has not been facing many or any break-aways or odd-man break situations, from game to game. Crawford has also not been facing many or any down low backdoor plays or side to side plays, from game to game. Obviously, Crawford plays no role regarding the type of shots he faces so he cannot be responsible, although he will be the benefactor. Crawford is being allowed to square up to shooters, who are being made to shoot from a certain distance. Crawford himself has mentioned that the team is helping him by keeping things clean and clearing things out. Crawford still has to make these saves, and he has been doing so brilliantly, but the low goals against is a team effort.

Give me any day a Defensive System that is intelligent and minimizes break-aways and odd man breaks, while also protecting the front of the net. I’ll trust Crawford to make all or almost all
the other saves, regardless of how they’re graded.

- Z3Hawk


I read an article recently that said Colliton was very interested in advanced stats, but cautioned that it was only one tool in the evaluation process. As long as those in charge are on that wavelength, I'm all for using any an all available information to help the team.

I was always confused as to how you could play the aggressive system that Ulf was known for while still playing zone. It would seem that those would be competing philosophies.
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