Quite sure the 'talking heads' are guessing as well..

I personally still think it's about Nylander thinking he'll be traded soon - and that's the main reason for him not accepting a decent contract (6.5/6years)
- plantheparade

And him holding out only increases the chance of him being traded.

Which team would need to add (and what) if it's a

Nylander (resigned at let's say 7.5mln/year) for Tarasenko (7.5mln, 5y left)

deal?
- plantheparade

It makes no sense for the Leafs to move Nylander for another elite top 6 winger. Full stop.

Thr problem is that the Hawks gave these deals to guys in their late 20s and in their 30s. Only Tavares would fit under that same class. Imo Nylander Matthews and Marner havent yet hit their primes while those guys were already halfway into theirs or near the end of it.
- systemtool

They also gave these contracts out after they won a cup or two.
Leafs are gonna hand out this cash without winning a cup.

Unless.

Unless.

This is the year

Yes guy!!!!

It makes no sense for the Leafs to move Nylander for another elite top 6 winger. Full stop.
- mjones242

It does if nylander wont sign.

But not the 7.5 cap hit, thats too high.

They also gave these contracts out after they won a cup or two.
Leafs are gonna hand out this cash without winning a cup.

Unless.

Unless.

This is the year

Yes guy!!!!
- Fakepartofme

Very good point. But thats the NHL these days. Younger mans game and players are now getting paid for potential as opposed to accomplishments.

Quite sure the 'talking heads' are guessing as well..

I personally still think it's about Nylander thinking he'll be traded soon - and that's the main reason for him not accepting a decent contract (6.5/6years)
- plantheparade

Maybe ...although you're guessing that Dubas made that offer.

I think it's more likely (we all heard Shanny's speach) that the Leafs want all their guys, including WN, to get signed long-term on team friendly deals. The problem is if WN signs for 6-8 years and takes a friends/family discount he doesn't get any guarantees that he won't get traded during the first 5 years of that deal. That sucks. He could end up in Edmonton or Ottawa next year on a "team friendly" deal. He's likely decided that he'd prefer a short term deal that doesn't put him in that predicament. Dubas flew over to reportedly "offer him some face-to-face assurances" but those don't always work out for the player.

Maybe ...although you're guessing that Dubas made that offer.

I think it's more likely (we all heard Shanny's speach) that the Leafs want all their guys, including WN, to get signed long-term on team friendly deals. The problem is if WN signs for 6-8 years and takes a friends/family discount he doesn't get any guarantees that he won't get traded during the first 5 years of that deal. That sucks. He could end up in Edmonton or Ottawa next year on a "team friendly" deal. He's likely decided that he'd prefer a short term deal that doesn't put him in that predicament. Dubas flew over to reportedly "offer him some face-to-face assurances" but those don't always work out for the player.
- The Law

Its not a problem. Its league rules. You cant give ntc nmc to RFAs. So every one (rfa) in the league, not just WN, signs and risks being traded.

Fear of being traded isnt worthy of higher demand in pay, and for back to back 60pt seasons isnt all that much of a discount at 6-6.5 a season.

4.5 -5.25 per for a bridge.
But the cap hit will be less due to situation
- Fakepartofme

more in year 1, less in year 2 --->

A few of the prediction model I looked at had his 3 year aav higher..more like 6

basically
1 - 5mil
2 - 5.5
3 - 6 or just a bit more
- senstroll

Also heard that he'd like that last season to have a high # for arbitration purposes. Might be a tough part of the negotiation.

Lets just get him in the lineup ...trade some prospects/picks for some playoff depth at the TD ...and go win the Cup.

Its not a problem. Its league rules. You cant give ntc nmc to RFAs. So every one (rfa) in the league, not just WN, signs and risks being traded.

Fear of being traded isnt worthy of higher demand in pay, and for back to back 60pt seasons isnt all that much of a discount at 6-6.5 a season.
- systemtool

Right. I disagree with paragraph 2. "worthy" isn't a thing in negotiations. And 6 x 6.5 might not be much of a discount but how certain are you that the Leafs have tabled that offer?

The obvious compromise is the bridge deal.

Not that I agree with wingers are easier to come by, but Sundin was a Centre.
- Archaic

Really, Sundin was a centre?

Its not a problem. Its league rules. You cant give ntc nmc to RFAs. So every one (rfa) in the league, not just WN, signs and risks being traded.

Fear of being traded isnt worthy of higher demand in pay, and for back to back 60pt seasons isnt all that much of a discount at 6-6.5 a season.
- systemtool

My point is that Willy counts on, and might be ok with being traded - but obviously uses the leverage he currently has [by not signing] in influencing where he'll be traded to.
Because personally I don't think Nylander (and his agent) are that stupid to turn down a contract of 6.5mln for 6-8 years.

Right. I disagree with paragraph 2. "worthy" isn't a thing in negotiations. And 6 x 6.5 might not be much of a discount but how certain are you that the Leafs have tabled that offer?

The obvious compromise is the bridge deal.
- The Law

My point is that in a business where trades are common place you cant ask for more money in case you get traded just because one assumes it may happen.

Guys,

If you really want valuable insight into the numbers behind the game, to get a better idea of what is REALLY going on, you can't do better that Travis Yost on TSN.

Here is his latest datamining genius



As if that wasn't revolutionary or shocking enough... here is a breakdown of Edmonton
scoring 5v5



This is astounding.

I know some if these revalations may be a little difficult for some of you to understand. If you need further clarification, I would suggest contacting Tanner directly. I think his is the only intellect towering enough to decipher the complexity of Yost's analyses.

My point is that in a business where trades are common place you cant ask for more money in case you get traded just because one assumes it may happen.
- systemtool

that's not the point - he's not asking for more money because he might be traded.

the current issue is that nylander is not signing any contract with leafs, until he knows which team he subsequently will be traded to.

My point is that Willy counts on, and might be ok with being traded - but obviously uses the leverage he currently has
- plantheparade[by not signing] in influencing where he'll be traded to.
Because personally I don't think Nylander (and his agent) are that stupid to turn down a contract of 6.5mln for 6-8 years.

He can sign anywhere that hands him in offer sheet. Aside from a team offering him one he has no influence on where the leafs trade him. If they wanted they could not trade him and let him sit. He has so little leverage it really doesn't allow him to pick and choose where he goes or who offer sheets him.

From TSN Radio:

Does Nylander become the most hated Leaf of all-time if he's traded?
- bixll

Most? I dont think so.
But hated for sure, unless we get something great in the trade.

that's not the point - he's not asking for more money because he might be traded.

the current issue is that nylander is not signing any contract with leafs, until he knows which team he subsequently will be traded to.
- plantheparade

I was responding to a post that suggested he wasnt accepting the Leafs current offer of less thab he wants because he doesnt want to take less and end up traded. So yea, that was the point i was addressing.

Who the hell said he was going to get traded and since when do teams give a player a list of teams they will trade him to?

Thr problem is that the Hawks gave these deals to guys in their late 20s and in their 30s. Only Tavares would fit under that same class. Imo Nylander Matthews and Marner havent yet hit their primes while those guys were already halfway into theirs or near the end of it.
- systemtool

The difference though is that both Kane and Toews signed bridge deals after their ELC's were up and that allowed us to be able to sign other guys during those smaller contract to keep the Hawks having a deep team. Then after those were up they received their matching contracts they have now. Keith's contract was signed before he hit his prime and was one of the best deals in the league during his prime years. The Seabrook contract was signed after he 30 and was a HUGE mistake that has cost the team...

Point being, having Matthews, Marner, and Nylander might be even better that what Toews, Kane, and whoever else you wanna pick from the past ten years of the Hawks teams, but not having bridge deals for those kids and paying the BIG contracts out right away is going to make the window for having a DEEP team that can compete year in and year out that much shorter.

I hope you guys can find a way to make it work out and win a cup with that core that's been built. It's a fun team to watch.

He can sign anywhere that hands him in offer sheet. Aside from a team offering him one he has no influence on where the leafs trade him. If they wanted they could not trade him and let him sit. He has so little leverage it really doesn't allow him to pick and choose where he goes or who offer sheets him.
- systemtool

disagree with this - prove of this being the fact that he still hasn't signed a contract yet. (which is as much an issue for the leafs as it is for nylander himself)

He can sign anywhere that hands him in offer sheet. Aside from a team offering him one he has no influence on where the leafs trade him. If they wanted they could not trade him and let him sit. He has so little leverage it really doesn't allow him to pick and choose where he goes or who offer sheets him.
- systemtool

I have no idea how he hasn't figured this out himself. He isn't going to "win" this one.

more in year 1, less in year 2 --->
- 21peter

Oh yes, thats correct.
But we can afford it this year.

Guys,

If you really want valuable insight into the numbers behind the game, to get a better idea of what is REALLY going on, you can't do better that Travis Yost on TSN.

Here is his latest datamining genius



As if that wasn't revolutionary or shocking enough... here is a breakdown of Edmonton
scoring 5v5



This is astounding.

I know some if these revalations may be a little difficult for some of you to understand. If you need further clarification, I would suggest contacting Tanner directly. I think his is the only intellect towering enough to decipher the complexity of Yost's analyses.
- Aetherial

Hold on....

1+1+1+1....


yep math checks out

The difference though is that both Kane and Toews signed bridge deals after their ELC's were up and that allowed us to be able to sign other guys during those smaller contract to keep the Hawks having a deep team. Then after those were up they received their matching contracts they have now. Keith's contract was signed before he hit his prime and was one of the best deals in the league during his prime years. The Seabrook contract was signed after he 30 and was a HUGE mistake that has cost the team...

Point being, having Matthews, Marner, and Nylander might be even better that what Toews, Kane, and whoever else you wanna pick from the past ten years of the Hawks teams, but not having bridge deals for those kids and paying the BIG contracts out right away is going to make the window for having a DEEP team that can compete year in and year out that much shorter.

I hope you guys can find a way to make it work out and win a cup with that core that's been built. It's a fun team to watch.
- Savetheembers33

Exactly.

The last couple years, players want double digits after 2 years. The bridge deal is disappearing.

disagree with this - prove of this being the fact that he still hasn't signed a contract yet. (which is as much an issue for the leafs as it is for nylander himself)
- plantheparade

Less for the Leafs. Big time for Nylander.