SJ
Vegas
LA
Calgary
Edmonton
Anaheim
Arizona
Vancouver

Oilers were 14th in CF%
5th in shots for
3rd in scoring chances

23rd in save percentage

and 22nd in PDO.

They are a perfectly fine team who's core players are still getting better. No one thinks they will magically transform, but they are closer to being the team everyone predicted at the start of last season than they are to the team they ended up being last year.
- james_tanner1

Corsi does a worse job predicting a team's win percentage than a team's plus minus does. If you ever want to evaluate teams chances of being successful the following year, you are better off using it's goal differential. Last year's standings have around the same predictive value for this years as Corsi does. In short, Corsi's not a great stat, stop using it.

PDO doesn't inform the way you think it does. The idea behind it is a stat to measure luck. However, if it measured luck across teams, teams would have a PDO of 100 when measured over a 5 or 10 year period. They don't. PDO still works to measure luck, but by comparing to the team itself's average over the previous years. So a team being ranked 22nd in PDO doesn't mean they were unlucky. A team being 10 points lower in PDO than their previous 5 year average is what would mean they were unlucky.

http://thesportjournal.or...redicting-hockey-success/

Corsi does a worse job predicting a team's win percentage than a team's plus minus does. If you ever want to evaluate teams chances of being successful the following year, you are better off using it's goal differential. Last year's standings have around the same predictive value for this years as Corsi does. In short, it's not a great stat, stop using it.

PDO doesn't inform the way you think it does. The idea behind it is a stat to measure luck. However, if it measured luck, teams would have a PDO of 100 when measured over a 5 or 10 year period. They don't. PDO still works to measure luck, but by comparing to the team itself's average over the previous years. So a team being ranked 22nd in PDO doesn't mean they were unlucky. A team being 10 points lower in PDO than their previous 5 year average means they were unlucky.

http://thesportjournal.or...redicting-hockey-success/
- Antilles

anyone still using corsi in 2018 is a new age dinosaur

The Met has the last 3 cup winners and both the Met and Central sent 5 teams to the playoffs... But the Pacific is the best, when last year it was arguably the easiest? Yeah... No...
- bulet13

Those are facts and Tanner doesn't use those. He writes these blogs based on how much attention he can get for saying dumb things. He has mastered the high school girl approach to writing trash. You go girl!

That's insane. Other divisions have better teams, but the Pacific has seven more or less equal teams, all of which are playoff threats.
- james_tanner1

"balanced"/"toughest" alone is not "best"!

anyone still using corsi in 2018 is a new age dinosaur
- Nucker101

Yeah, I have heard that from advanced stats guys for a couple years now, right before they refer to it, or some flavor of it, the very next day.

You all do know that he only posts this stuff to get hits? Right?

Phoenix, Vancouver and Edmonton are bottom NHL teams, only division with more is the Atlantic with Ottawa, Montreal, Detroit and Buffalo.
- Glak18

Buffalo may surprise this year, or next?

You all do know that he only posts this stuff to get hits? Right?
- BiggE

troll blogger

You all do know that he only posts this stuff to get hits? Right?
- BiggE

You do know I only post to build a bigger fan base?

Those are facts and Tanner doesn't use those. He writes these blogs based on how much attention he can get for saying dumb things. He has mastered the high school girl approach to writing trash. You go girl!
- Mino42

No Tanner is an underdogger. He loves to make up reasons to justify an unexpected prediction so he can get on the ground floor, eventually he will get one right and never let go of it.

If you predict that Edmonton and Arizona will be one of the best teams in the league every year, eventually you would think it would happen. Just like proclaiming this is the year for Toronto and when it doesn't happen then it will be next until they finally win in the 3030 Space Games. Then people will scream told you.

Just like proclaiming this is the year for Toronto and when it doesn't happen then it will be next until they finally win in the 3030 Space Games.
- Glak18

Everyone with common sense says one thing, james writes a blog with a title that says the opposite that is a terrible take.

Comments and clicks ensue. He's a smart one that james

Hey James are you ever going to get your Coyotes blogs posted in the proper section on this site? Seems like kind of a Richard move to keep posting them in the Capitals section.
- leonkennedy

I haven't ever heard anyone complain about something so inconsequential in my entire life. Also, how could you think I have anything to do with it?

No, they aren’t.

They are a bad team with a generational player, and a few other really good ones.

Their depth is awful, and they are basically the Sabres of last year with better star power
- sbroads24

It's easy to say that when they had a bad year, but they were just some good goaltending away from being one of the best teams in hockey. The offense is there, it's among the best in the game, and that's the hardest thing to get.

But I do realize that for most people, last year's standings are the law, even though we've established how random they are..

You all do know that he only posts this stuff to get hits? Right?
- BiggE

Hey you guys know this guy only goes to work to get money right?

Everyone with common sense says one thing, james writes a blog with a title that says the opposite that is a terrible take.

Comments and clicks ensue. He's a smart one that james
- FLAM3SFAN

*click*
*click*
*click*
*click*
*click*

How much did this comment cost me?

No Tanner is an underdogger. He loves to make up reasons to justify an unexpected prediction so he can get on the ground floor, eventually he will get one right and never let go of it.

If you predict that Edmonton and Arizona will be one of the best teams in the league every year, eventually you would think it would happen. Just like proclaiming this is the year for Toronto and when it doesn't happen then it will be next until they finally win in the 3030 Space Games. Then people will scream told you.
- Glak18

yes, I think this is also true

It's easy to say that when they had a bad year, but they were just some good goaltending away from being one of the best teams in hockey. The offense is there, it's among the best in the game, and that's the hardest thing to get.

But I do realize that for most people, last year's standings are the law, even though we've established how random they are..
- james_tanner1

Last year's standings have around the same predictive value for this years as Corsi does. In short, Corsi's not a great stat, stop using it.
- Antilles

Is this #5 on the Top Five Reasons to Be Nervous About the Coyotes? I jest, but, seriously, if Tanner does 4 more of these, I might take back my teasing of the earlier blog series.

That's insane. Other divisions have better teams, but the Pacific has seven more or less equal teams, all of which are playoff threats. I guess if you massively underrate PHX EDM and CGY
- james_tanner1

its not insane as the stats say otherwsie. stats never lie

It's easy to say that when they had a bad year, but they were just some good goaltending away from being one of the best teams in hockey. The offense is there, it's among the best in the game, and that's the hardest thing to get.

But I do realize that for most people, last year's standings are the law, even though we've established how random they are..
- james_tanner1

There isn't a goalie in the game that can help them if they don't do something about that defense.
From McDavid's own mouth - they can score with anyone, but they need to be better at keeping the puck out of their own net.
Not sure PTO contracts to washed up, never-all-that-good D-men is going to be the solution.

its not insane as the stats say otherwsie. stats never lie
- rinaldo

No, no they don't. They do however get used to justify statements that they were never designed to reflect. Or get used in a solitary fashion when it takes a host of different statistics to piece together a genuine portrait of such a volatile, unpredictable game.

Vancouver 4?

Because of Roussel and Beagle instead of the Sedin's?

Vancouver 4?

Because of Roussel and Beagle instead of the Sedin's?
- jimbro83

I dunno, I just think theres a decent enough chance that they are not completely terrible. They've got some nice youth, and anyone who randomly gets OK goaltending will never be that bad.